| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.22 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 34 | 0.00 | +13.04 |
| Season to Date | 36 | 34 | 0.00 | +13.04 |
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Toronto +140 over N.Y. YANKEES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]For the first time this season, the Blue Jays are undervalued. Projected as the team to beat in the AL, the Blue Jays have stumbled out of the gate and the oddsmakers (and betting public) have finally abandoned ship. Now we get an opportunity to buy low and that’s usually the best time to step in. C.C. Sabathia has a 3.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after his first five starts. It seems like business as usual for Sabathia but it comes with a warning sign in his fastball velocity. No starting pitcher has lost more velocity on his fastball between April 2012 and April 2013 than Sabathia (91.8 mph vs. 89.6 mph). He had off-season surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow so this drop shouldn't come as a complete surprise. But if Sabathia only has a 90 mph fastball to work with, it will be 3-4 mph lower than his career norm, meaning he'll need to rely completely on location and movement to remain elite. That's a risky proposition and his groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% is also a career worse. Sabathia has been tagged for four bombs over his past two starts and will face a Blue Jays team that has gone yard 31 times in 24 games.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Three years of a near-5.00 ERA and 1.40+ WHIP will keep J.A. Happ’s stock low for the time being but there's something interesting here. Concurrent control and strikeout rate improvement were kept hidden by an abnormal hit percentage jump. xERA of 3.98 last season confirm that he's got skills worth speculating on. Happ has 19 K’s in 22 frames this season to go along with a much-improved 1.14 WHIP. He’s already faced some strong hitting clubs in Kansas City, Baltimore and Boston and has allowed just 16 hits in 22 frames for a BAA of .198. Happ now gets the benefit of facing an injury plagued lineup that will be without starting catcher, Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli joins a long list of Yankees on the disabled list that may soon also include Kevin Youkilis, who was not available for the sixth straight game last night because of lower back tightness and reports are that Youkilis will not be available today either. Undervalued for the first time and expected to lose, the Blue Jays are in a good spot to pull off the upset.[/FONT][/FONT]
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Pittsburgh +108 over ST. LOUIS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]After losing five of their first six games, the Pirates have the league’s best mark at 12-5 since. Included among those victories were three-game sweeps over both Atlanta and Cincinnati. Over the past 15 games, the Pirates lead the NL with a .274 batting average and a .344 on base %. Current Pirates have had great success against Jake Westbrook with 69 hits in 229 career AB’s against Westbrook for a BA of .314. Westbrook is 1-1 with a 1.25 ERA in three starts but his early skills insist an implosion is forthcoming. Westbrook’s xERA is 5.05. He’s walked 14 batters in 21.2 innings while striking out just eight. In three starts, Westbrook has thrown 327 pitches with 54% of those being out of the strike zone and called balls. Westbrook survives on an elite groundball rate of 63% that induces double plays but with all those walks and hard hit balls, he simply can’t continue to outpitch his xERA by four runs. Jake Westbrook is about to get lit up big time and the Pirates are seeing the ball well right now. This could be the day he implodes.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
A.J. Burnett has been downright dominating this season. He has an elite strikeout rate of 42 K’s in 29 frames, which leads the majors in that category. Burnett also comes in with a .208 oppBA, a 1.14 WHIP and an ERA of 2.79. Burnett’s xERA of 2.52 is even lower than is actual 2.79 ERA and there is nothing fluky about his success. Burnett is getting lots of K’s, he has an elite groundball rate of 58% and a normal strand rate of 77%. Burnett has just one win in five starts but deserves at least four wins and probably five. No pitcher in baseball has been sharper than Burnett. Taking back a tag against Westbrook here offers up some pretty sweet value and hopefully Burnett will get some much deserved justice in the form of a win. [/FONT][/FONT]
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Baltimore +129 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]In the first two games of this series the A’s have managed nine hits and two runs with the two runs scored coming in the first inning of the opener and both runs were unearned. That suggests that Buck Showalter and the Orioles staff have a very good read on the weaknesses of the Athletics’ hitters. Now Chris Tillman gets his shot. Tillman went 9-3 with 2.93 ERA in 86 innings for the O’s last season. Last year, Tillman found his way out of the woods, guided by velocity gains, newfound control and great progress against lefties. Tillman has two very good starts in four tries this year. He’s coming off a 6.2-inning, four-hit, one run gem against the Blue Jays and he also threw a beauty against the Red Sox on April 11th. Tillman’s xERA doesn't buy that he's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher just yet, but the skills say he's right on the cusp. That said, this one is more about playing against the A’s suddenly lifeless offense with A.J. Griffin on the mound.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Griffin is a pitcher in trouble. His ERA is somewhat respectable at 4.50 but it’s been all luck and very little skill. Griffin faced three struggling offenses in his first three starts (Seattle, L.A.A and Houston) before running into the Red Sox in his last start. Boston went off for nine hits and eight runs against Griffin in four frames. Griffin has a putrid profile that shows a 27%/32%/42% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate. That’s serious and tells us that Griffin is not fooling anyone. Balls were hit hard in Griffin’s first three starts but they were hit right at people. It caught up to him in his fourth start and is likely to continue here. In his rookie campaign last season, Griffin put up some nice surface numbers but his under the hood numbers also suggested it was all smoke and mirrors. The films on Griffin have been studied by major-league hitters and his days of quality starts will soon be a thing of the past. Griffin is major fade material, as major leaguers have caught up to him and it says here he will be out of the rotation and back in the minors before the end of June. Huge overlay.
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