Sunday: Royals Again YTD: 62-55, + 21.52 units

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Saturday: 5-2-2, + 3.57 units. I should be pissed about pushing on the Royals game considering how it all shook out in the 9th, but KC should have scored a few more runs earlier when they were playing footsies with Kazmir and the other crappy Indian middle relievers. Considering how well Santana pitched, that game should have been 5-0 or 7-0 going into the 9th. I also felt fortunate in the Arizona game considering how many times Miley was on the ropes and escaped. Long season...


Tampa-1 (-104) 3 units. Tampa has faced some of the toughest pitching in the past week… Sale, Peavy, Milone, Sabathia, Petite, Parker, Anderson- and has hit fairly well, and with power, limiting their Ks, and getting on base. Yanks, Oakland, and Chicago also have good bullpens. Now Axelrod has pitched well, and has a decent slider- but his fastball and change up are pedestrian and have to be perfectly placed. He has a 9:13 walk, K ratio and last year struggled with the long ball(one per 6.5 IPs). But the main reason I like this is that I think David Price is finally coming into his dominant self again. This happened last year. He started to pitch really well about the 4th game, and even admitted that he takes a few starts to really get his command and velocity back to normal. The White Sox, meanwhile, have been slumping badly against good pitching. They are hitting .197 in the past week, and are 2nd from the bottom in the AL vs. LHP in OBP. In fact, they have one of the worst BB:k ratio for the entire mlb this year- down there with Houston, Seattle and the Cubs. Their record has been okay due to a very good pitching staff, but their lineup is struggling at the top, middle and the bottom. Tampa has always been a good road team, have a decent bullpen and are led by a top notch manager.
 

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KC Royals ML -116. One unit
Kc -1 (+127) One unit. Despite Saturday's disappointment, I think Sunday will be different. KC is 12-6 in their last 18, they DID WIN Saturday, and are just a different club now. The lineup is stacked 1-9, they play well on the road, and finally their pitching staff is middle of the pack, not a disaster. Also, how many times have I seen them hit poorly vs. a bum like Kazmir, and then light up a much better pitcher. This team believes in themselves and Guthrie personifies it. His career was all but given up for lost when he was on the Rockies, and now he's on the top of the rotation, pitching competitively each game. He has a nice array of pitches and speeds, and when on, he can be very tough. The Indians, meanwhile. got 2 lucky runs in the 9th, but pretty much looked helpless vs. Santana. Take away their 19 run game against Houston and they are dreadful stat-wise- 66 runs in 18 games. In fact, they have 2-3 other games where they scored 9-11 runs. Take those out and it's like 40 runs in 15 games. In other words they have many game of 0-2 runs. Without Bourn, the top and bottom of their lineup is very poor, Cabrera and Kipnis are slumping, and right now only Santana is hitting well. Santana might not play in the earlier game since catchers rarely play both halves of doubleheaders. Now Justin Masterson has pitched very well, but these KC hitters have seem him a lot and have a .300+ BAA. Masterson usually has spike games among good games and he is due for one now vs. a strong bunch of hitters. KC also has the better bullpen and would love to impress the home crowd.
 

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Milwaukee ML (+154) One unit. Kershaw is not god- this line is ridiculous. Kyle Lohse, like last year, is off to an incredible start. Pretty good for a guy who had hardly any spring training. He is a different pitcher now like Paul Maholm is a different pitcher. If Jamie Moyer can have a fairly successful 20 year career with his very slow stuff, than these guys can have at least a few years of being very effective. Lohse has such great command that he can get both ground balls and strike outs. Also, the Dodgers are hitting just .228 vs. RHP, while the Brewers are leading the league vs. LHP at .305. These Brewer hitters are hitting .318 lifetime vs. Kershaw. That might be the best BAA in the NL vs. Kershaw. His control has been off his past 2 games, walking 8 in 10 IPs. The Brewers are also playing well winning 10 out of 12. Their bullpen is even passable lately. The Dodgers bullpen isn't much better.
 

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I took KC yesterday and like you was really thinking they should have scored more early - but seriously what major league first baseman makes that mistake ? 1

Milw took them yesterday but not betting that today - Weeks sucks he just can't hit and costs them runs every game.

Anway Im really interested in Philles game today - so will see how that works out first.

All the best.
 

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You live by the sword, you die by the sword...I hate it when the team your betting on has an interest different than yours like last night in KC...but the -1 line evens out the juice much better and is necessary in many cases.

Thanks fred for a winning day and gl all today
 

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Good stuff Fred. You provide very good information so thanks for sharing.
 

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Good write-ups and selections. Agree with all today except for Milwaukee. I don't disagree, just don't like either side in this game, kind of lean to the over. What area of Portland do you live in? I moved here about 2 1/2 years ago.
 

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Felix, Welcome to Portland. Great place to live, but no pro baseball.

Dare I try this one: Under 7 (+112) Wash/ Cinn. One unit. Washington struggles vs. LHP, and this young kid, Cingrani, has been so good I can't see him ever leaving the rotation. Very good control, movement, and has the ability to whiff even the middle of the lineup hitters. The Reds have what… 7 hits this whole series? They are also missing a couple of guys that hit Detwiler, and Cozart is in a dreadful slump. Besides, Detwiler is another up and comer that would be a #1 in some rotations. I also think the Nats are still not quite back from their earlier slump, but man that pitching can keep them always competitive! Day games seem to give hitters problems, and the Nats' park is a decent pitcher's park. Both have good bullpens.
 

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Felix, Welcome to Portland. Great place to live, but no pro baseball.

Dare I try this one: Under 7 (+112) Wash/ Cinn. One unit. Washington struggles vs. LHP, and this young kid, Cingrani, has been so good I can't see him ever leaving the rotation. Very good control, movement, and has the ability to whiff even the middle of the lineup hitters. The Reds have what… 7 hits this whole series? They are also missing a couple of guys that hit Detwiler, and Cozart is in a dreadful slump. Besides, Detwiler is another up and comer that would be a #1 in some rotations. I also think the Nats are still not quite back from their earlier slump, but man that pitching can keep them always competitive! Day games seem to give hitters problems, and the Nats' park is a decent pitcher's park. Both have good bullpens.

Sam Holbrook HP umpire - small strike zone. Wind blowing out to left center about 10mph.

Yeah, the Beavers last year was right before we moved here. My boys were bummed… I'll bet their games were a lot of fun.
 

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