| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.74 |
| Last 30 Days | 38 | 35 | 0.00 | +15.78 |
| Season to Date | 38 | 35 | 3 | +15.78 |
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San Francisco -117 over SAN DIEGO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]There is certainly value in playing favorites when said favorite is underpriced and that’s precisely the case here. Jason Marquis went 8-11 with a 5.22 ERA in 127 innings last season pitching for the Twins and Padres. Think the home park doesn't matter? In his games with San Diego, Marquis’ four worst earned runs outings were at Colorado, at Cincinnati, at Arizona and at Atlanta. With the dimension changes at Petco this year that has turned this venue from an extreme pitchers park to a hitter’s park, Marquis can no longer hide behind those previously spacious dimensions. In two home starts this season, Marquis has been tagged for nine runs, 11 hits and three bombs in 9.2 innings for an ERA of 8.38. Current Giants have 38 hits off Marquis in 109 career AB’s for a combined BA of .349. Overall, Marquis has 10 walks and 15 K’s in 23 frames. If you hate money, bet on him.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Ryan Vogelsong’s first year as a starter (2004) netted an ERA of 6.50. Two years later he posted a mark of 6.38 in 38 relief innings. That led to a trip across the Pacific to play three years in Japan. A 2011 minor league contract with a spring training invite led to a break-through 180-inning, 139-strikeout, 2.71 ERA season for the Giants. Vogelsong backed that up with a 190-inning, 3.37 ERA last year. The now-35-year-old has reinvented his game and has developed base skills that pay off frequently. Vogelsong is on top of every part of the control-strikeout rate-command equation. Early returns in 2013 are showing solid consistency. A big 2012 postseason (1.09 ERA in 24.2 IP) was a confirmation of sorts for the 6-foot-4 right-hander who keeps hitters off balance with a wide assortment of pitches. An ability to mitigate damage against LHB make for consistent production. He also does a credible job in shutting down the run (base-stealers 10-of-19 off of him in 2012). Not an elite talent, Vogelsong is nonetheless a profitable pitcher on a contending team. Baseline numbers in starts this season show more of the same and he and the Giants are certainly worthy of a wager here spotting a cheap price against Jason Marquis. Play: San Fran (Risking 2.34 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Chicago -1½ +149 over MIAMI
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Marlins played a double-header on Tuesday against Minnesota and Ricky Nolasco was scheduled to start the early game. 2½ hours prior to game time, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria personally mandated the lineup card change that flip-flopped starting pitchers Jose Fernandez and Nolasco. Loria insisted Fernandez, the team's prized 20-year-old rookie, pitch in the first half of the doubleheader at frigid Target Field instead of the scheduled Nolasco because the day game was expected to be warmer. Rookie manager Mike Redmond delivered the news to Nolasco about 2 hours before the first game and it did not go over well with him or his teammates. Standard protocol for doubleheaders is that veterans choose which game they want to pitch. Not only did Loria ignore that and further alienate Nolasco, he sabotaged Redmond less than 20 games into his managerial career. The Marlins have not won since. They have five wins in 26 games and they are out of this thing before the end of April. Players that are eligible for free-agency next season are calling it “being paroled”. By listening to Loria, manager Mike Redmond has lost the respect of his players. "He was embarrassed," one source said of Redmond. The Marlins are a mess three weeks into the season. Mentally, the Fish are being grinded down to the bone, as losing takes its toll and every player hates being here. It sure doesn’t help that the Fish are playing to a practically empty stadium on a nightly basis.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
With the losses piling up and resentment burning in his belly, Ricky Nolasco will once again take the hill. This can’t end well. Nolasco earned a reputation as a pitcher who could never quite deliver on the solid skills he displayed year after year. Now at age 30 and aching to get out of Miami (he’s already requested a trade), Nolasco brings a few more red flags with him to the mound. Nolasco’s ERA is very much in line with previous years but his xERA is up more than a half run per game and his other skills are on a four-year decline. The trajectory on Nolasco's career has been headed the wrong direction for several years and now his strikeout rate is at a barely acceptable level as well.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Carlos Villanueva has faced Atlanta, Texas, San Fran and Cincinnati, the latter at Great American Ballpark. He’s allowed 16 hits in 29 frames against that solid group of batters for a BAA of .167. Villanueva has a 56% groundball rate and an elite 16% line-drive rate. He also has a BB/K rate of 6/21 to go along with a 0.75 WHIP. Villanueva’s skills surge is not all of a sudden either. He saw his swinging strike rate dramatically increase in 2012 from 6.5% to 9.9%, the largest increase of any pitcher besides Jason Hammel. That swinging strike rate is up to 10.2% this season. The move from the extremely tough AL East to the NL has also benefitted Villanueva and now he gets his easiest assignment in years. Momentum, state of mind, desire, focus and everything else hugely favors Villanueva and the Cubbies, allowing us another good opportunity to capitalize. Play: Chicago -1½ +149 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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Baltimore +131 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Orioles have won the first three games of this series by belting out 32 hits and scoring 20 runs. The A’s have scored five times in the three games so far and two of those runs were unearned. Bartolo Colon has walked just one batter in 26 innings this season and that has helped him get off to a 3-0 start with a strong 2.42 ERA. You really have to admire and respect a guy who shows such pinpoint control (and decent other skills) at an advanced age. That said, Buck Showalter and the Orioles always have a game plan. The O’s outstanding offense is going to come out swinging knowing that Colon throws strikes. Colon has an average groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and his early season numbers are unsustainable. He’s a solid part of the A’s rotation but you can count on Colon delivering his fair share of implosions that could begin here.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Miguel Gonzalez is a late bloomer that made his MLB debut last year and thrived in the pennant race.[/FONT]Journeyman Gonzalez has earned his shot in the Show, but his skills did not fully support his strong performance a year ago. Gonzalez’s ERA last year was fed by unsustainable hit and strand percentages. His more pedestrian xERA of 4.61 is an indication of Gonzalez' true talent. At age 28, the perseverance Gonzalez has showed to get to the big leagues is commendable and he has demonstrated that he has enough talent to stick in the Oriole rotation. He has been pitching over his head to this point, however, and there is some regression coming down the road. That said, Gonzalez is still giving Baltimore quality innings. He may not be the best pitcher on the hill today but if the better pitcher won every game, we’d all be rich. This wager is not about the starters. It’s about taking back a tag on an Orioles club that is winning games, swinging some hot bats, and that is thriving in this series. No reason they can’t compete the sweep here. Play: Baltimore +131 (Risking 2 units).
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