Monday: I'll Risk the Big Juice YTD: 65-57, + 24.77 units

Sunday: 3-2-1, + 3.27 units. Kershaw is god. My bad.



Detroit RL (-105) 2 units
Detroit-1 (-160) One unit. The Tigers have an even better team than last year. If they had a better bullpen, they'd be looking at 105 wins. With Sanchez, they now have 4 very tough starters. Max Scherzer is one of them. Since last year(about mid-season), he has some of the best stats of anyone in the mlb. That's not easy being an AL pitcher with the DH. He loves pitching for the Tigers, loves the city and has openly said how much he wants his long term contract there. His control and command have become excellent. He has not had a start of more than 2 walks since last July 25th, except for one game this year with KC when he had 3. Scherzer now has a very good slider to go with his electric fastball and change- both which are strike out pitches. In 24 IPs he has 36 Ks, and 26 Ks in 17 IPs in last year's playoffs. He pitched very well last season vs. good competition. I also like that he feels he has to keep up with Anibal Sanchez and Verlander in being dominant. The other good reason to like this game is Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is less than a year off his Tommy John surgery and it's obvious he is not ready to pitch in the majors. His command is way off, his velocity is down a tick, and his sinker is elevating. His release point is off his norm, and he seems to be lacking mound presence. He always was a 2 pitch pitcher, who works sooo slow- with nervous ticks and fidgeting. He never really developed his secondary pitches, and now he's facing a team that just crushed Medlen and Maholm. By the way, that was Medlen's worst line over the last 2 years, and Maholm's pretty much the same. The Tigers beat you 1-9 in their lineup and I don't see how Pelfrey will hold up. Gardenhire is a stubborn guy that likes to make do with what he has, but this might get ridiculous with Pelfrey. A couple of lefties, Morneau and Mauer have given Scherzer trouble, but that was when he was a much different pitcher. The Twins suffer from a very poor bottom 4-5 of their lineup, and are hitting only .235 vs. RHP.

Mike Minor, next victim- he of the 1.80 ERA. Reliever Cory Gearin, 12 scoreless innings this year, until tonight. If the Tigers are focused Monday, they should light up Pelfrey. Swarzak and Duensing are the Twins' long relievers. They are doing fine this year in the first few weeks, but have been crap the last few years. I also like that Detroit has faced Pelfrey once already this year in his 1st start.

KC Royals -1 (+110) 2 units. I hope I am getting a feel for the Royals. I laid off the 2nd game Sunday because the Indians have seen Will Smith a lot the past 2 years, and creamed him in his last start in 2012. His skills don't translate well to the majors. The Indians also hit LHP well, but are pretty bad vs. RHP- only .234, and included in that is about 10 runs off of Phil Humber in that 18 run game I keep dragging out(sorry). But vs. RHp they seem to score about 0-3 runs every time. Wade Davis had a great run as a reliever last year, and 2 very strong starts this year. He's got good movement on his pitches, can throw hard, and has a decent secondary pitch repertoire. When he gets hit, it's because he goes too long into a game or his command deserts him. But his last bad start was vs. the Tigers so I'll give him a pass. These Indians are hitting .172 BAA. Ubaldo is a big puppy on the mound and his mechanics don't fit his body. Since losing much of his velocity from 2010 when he was an ace, he always blows up one inning, and lately that's more frequent. I don't think he ever learned to pitch with lesser velocity. he has 11 walks and 4 HRs in 16 IPs, and faces a very good KC lineup that has the fewest strikeouts in the mlb. Ubaldo's -1.5 war is one of the worst among starters in the AL. I see a steady regression with him until they put him in the bullpen. KC also has the bullpen edge although Holland can be frustrating.

5D opens DET -1 -182...books killing the golden goose of the -1 lines this season, imo. They are forcing you to lay the ML juice or take the risk on the RL.

my local had odds for Det to win the central down to -320 before the atlanta series, new line hasn't come out yet but im sure it has raised significantly. I don't see how this team does not win this division... i think they have the best chance to take the title this year

det has a bad bullpen, real bad. they also have a poor fielding team, one of the worst in recent memory. couple that with total lack of speed and things are not what they may appear at first glimpse.

Their bullpen is not real bad. It is slightly better than last year. I don't feel that the fielding will come into play that much for one game, but your point is well taken.

Detroit-1/2 (-150) 2 units. First 5

KC -1/2 (-110) One unit. First 5

GL today bud!

~ E

o fred i think he was responding to my thoughts on them being a world series contender and not necessarily your wager on them today...

Good luck tonight!!!!

XS