[h=1]Upset odds for Round 1 matchups[/h][h=3]Why Penguins, Blackhawks should fear Islanders, Wild[/h]
By Neil Greenberg | ESPN Insider
No one wants to play the Pittsburgh Penguins. They dominated the Eastern Conference with a 35-12-0 record and had the season's longest winning streak when they won all 15 games they played in March. They are also getting healthy.
Forwards James Neal and Evgeni Malkin, along with blueliners Kris Letang and Paul Martin, are back on the ice. But most importantly, captain Sidney Crosby -- who finished third in the points race despite not playing since breaking his jaw on March 30 against the New York Islanders -- resumed practicing on Friday.
That gives Pittsburgh one of the most potent lineups in the league, but an upset by the New York Islanders is still possible.
<OFFER>
Using the Pythagorean win expectation -- goals-for squared divided by the sum of goals-for squared and goals-against squared -- allows us to figure out who is more likely to win in a head-to-head matchup over a seven-game series. For example, Pittsburgh scored 165 goals while giving up 119 -- a much better differential than the Islanders' 139-139 -- giving the Islanders only a 20.5 percent chance at pulling the upset.
However, that same Pythagorean win expectation tells us that the Penguins have won six more games than they should have been expected to win, good for highest in the league. Six games may not sound like a lot, but history has not been kind to the team that has the most "lucky wins" during the season.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Most 'Lucky Wins' since 2006[/h]
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
It isn't just the best team in the East that's vulnerable: History suggests that Chicago could also face a first-round upset.
The Blackhawks opened the season with 24 consecutive games (including a franchise record of 11 straight wins) without losing in regulation, crushing the previous mark of 16 by the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks and leading to Chicago's first Presidents' Trophy since the 1990-91 season.
It isn't the fictional "Presidents' Trophy curse" that makes Chicago a vulnerable top seed; it's the Blackhawks' 19 wins in one-goal games that could be worrisome.
Since the 2006 playoffs, the team with the most wins in one-goal games has had limited success in the postseason, with only two teams making it out of the first round (the 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes and 2006-07 New Jersey Devils). The five most recent teams have all been bounced in the first round.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Team with the most wins in one-goal games, regular season since 2006[/h]
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
For the Minnesota Wild, who are heading to the postseason for the first time in five years, it will come down to finding a spark with their power play.
The Wild have taken 239 power-play shots (seventh-best), but have scored on just 27 of them (11.3 percent). Mikko Koivu especially has been cold, going 0-for-20 on his shots during the man advantage this season. It won't be easy, but if the Wild can start to convert on their drawn penalties, they could stun Chicago in the first round.
Chance of Wild upset: 9.0 percent
How the other series break down:
[h=3](2) Montreal Canadiens versus (7) Ottawa Senators[/h]
The Canadiens found themselves in a bit of a tailspin as the season came to a close, losing six of their last 10 games. The Senators, on the other hand, managed to keep themselves in the Eastern Conference playoff race after losing top center Jason Spezza, reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, winger Milan Michalek and netminder Craig Anderson to injuries. Now, with all but Spezza back in the lineup, Ottawa could be a fearsome opponent.
Michalek has had four points and 30 shots in the seven games since he returned. Anderson looks like he may be regaining his Vezina-worthy form, stopping 42 of 45 shots in his last two games. Karlsson, though, is the key: When he skates, the Senators outshoot opponents 16-11, and since his return to the ice he has logged more than 27 minutes a night and generated 35 total shot attempts.
This Senators squad, now healthy, is not your average seven seed.
Chance of Senators upset: 45.2 percent
[h=3](3) Washington Capitals versus (6) New York Rangers[/h]
The Capitals have the best power play in the league, converting on 44 of 164 opportunities and going 19-9-2 when they score a power-play goal. At the individual level, Alex Ovechkin and Mike Ribeiro led the NHL in points during the man advantage with 27 each. But the Rangers are the least-penalized team in the league (9.2 per game), and if they can keep the game mostly 5-on-5, then their superior puck possession (53.5 percent of shots in their favor compared to Washington's 48.6 percent) and goaltending (Henrik Lundqvist has a .922 playoff save percentage against the Capitals over the past three years) should carry them through to the next round.
Chance of Rangers upset: 51.9 percent
[h=3](4) Boston Bruins versus (5) Toronto Maple Leafs[/h]
The Bruins are among the class of the East, having the third-most points behind Pittsburgh and Montreal, and they face a Toronto club that is the first team since the 2001-02 Montreal Canadiens to qualify for the postseason with an average shot differential worse than minus-5.
So that should make it a rout for Boston, right? Not exactly. The Maple Leafs have been one of the luckiest teams in the league, having shot almost 11 percent during even strength while holding opponents to a below average 7.4 percent. Typically, this type of "puck luck" evens out over a long season, but with just 48 regular-season games, it could linger for a little bit longer. That's good news for Phil Kessel (10 goals and seven assists in last 10 games) and Joffrey Lupul (13 points in last 10 games), who could continue to find themselves on the score sheet and into the second round.
Chance of Maple Leafs upset: 38.2 percent
[h=3](2) Anaheim Ducks versus (7) Detroit Red Wings[/h]
Detroit returns to the postseason for the 22nd straight year, while the Ducks see postseason play for the first time since losing in the first round to Nashville two years ago.
Despite a bounce-back season by Ryan Getzlaf (47 points in 43 games after just 57 points last year), the one knock on this Ducks squad is its inability to drive puck possession. Less than 49 percent of all even-strength shot attempts have gone in Anaheim's favor, while the Red Wings have seen more than 53 percent of their shots go in when the game is within one goal or tied (FenwickClose%). That could be enough to tilt the series in Detroit's favor.
Chance of Red Wings upset: 51.9 percent
[h=3](3) Vancouver Canucks versus (6) San Jose Sharks[/h]
For the fifth straight season, the Canucks are in the playoffs as the Northwest Division champions thanks in large part to talent of the Sedin twins, an improved blue line and inspired play by goaltender Roberto Luongo, who posted a 9-5-3 record along with a .914 save percentage. But the Canucks have not been great at tilting the ice in their favor at home.
When at Rogers Arena, Vancouver has given up almost as many even-strength shots (21) as it has created (22). That gives San Jose an opportunity to wake up their sticks (shooting just 5.5 percent on the road) and swing home-ice advantage back to the HP Pavilion, where the Sharks went 17-2-5 this season.
Chance of Sharks upset: 48.3 percent
[h=3](4) St. Louis Blues versus (5) Los Angeles Kings[/h]
The Blues finished the season winning 12 of their last 15 games thanks to a rebound performance by goaltender Brian Elliott (.948 save percentage in April). But the Kings are the defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason: They dominate puck possession better than any other team in the league.
When we examine the shot attempts taken based on the score (score-adjusted Fenwick percentage), Los Angeles once again comes out on top (56 percent). Recent teams that have led by this metric fare pretty well during the playoffs, including three Stanley Cups and one more trip to the Finals.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Playoff teams with top score adjusted Fenwick percentage, since 2008[/h]
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Chance of Kings upset: 51.5 percent
By Neil Greenberg | ESPN Insider
No one wants to play the Pittsburgh Penguins. They dominated the Eastern Conference with a 35-12-0 record and had the season's longest winning streak when they won all 15 games they played in March. They are also getting healthy.
Forwards James Neal and Evgeni Malkin, along with blueliners Kris Letang and Paul Martin, are back on the ice. But most importantly, captain Sidney Crosby -- who finished third in the points race despite not playing since breaking his jaw on March 30 against the New York Islanders -- resumed practicing on Friday.
That gives Pittsburgh one of the most potent lineups in the league, but an upset by the New York Islanders is still possible.
<OFFER>
Using the Pythagorean win expectation -- goals-for squared divided by the sum of goals-for squared and goals-against squared -- allows us to figure out who is more likely to win in a head-to-head matchup over a seven-game series. For example, Pittsburgh scored 165 goals while giving up 119 -- a much better differential than the Islanders' 139-139 -- giving the Islanders only a 20.5 percent chance at pulling the upset.
However, that same Pythagorean win expectation tells us that the Penguins have won six more games than they should have been expected to win, good for highest in the league. Six games may not sound like a lot, but history has not been kind to the team that has the most "lucky wins" during the season.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Most 'Lucky Wins' since 2006[/h]
| Year | Team | GP | Wins | GF | GA | Lucky Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 48 | 36 | 165 | 119 | 6 | ??? |
| 2012 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 38 | 235 | 281 | 4 | DNQ |
| 2012 | Minnesota Wild | 82 | 35 | 177 | 226 | 4 | DNQ |
| 2011 | Anaheim Ducks | 82 | 47 | 239 | 235 | 5 | Lost first round |
| 2010 | Nashville Predators | 82 | 47 | 225 | 225 | 6 | Lost first round |
| 2009 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 50 | 272 | 245 | 5 | Lost second round |
| 2008 | Anaheim Ducks | 82 | 47 | 205 | 191 | 3 | Lost first round |
| 2008 | New Jersey Devils | 82 | 46 | 206 | 197 | 3 | Lost first round |
| 2008 | Edmonton Oilers | 82 | 41 | 235 | 251 | 3 | DNQ |
| 2008 | New York Islanders | 82 | 35 | 194 | 243 | 3 | DNQ |
| 2007 | New Jersey Devils | 82 | 49 | 216 | 201 | 5 | Lost second round |
| 2007 | Boston Bruins | 82 | 35 | 219 | 289 | 5 | DNQ |
| 2006 | Carolina Hurricanes | 82 | 52 | 294 | 260 | 6 | Stanley Cup Champions |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
It isn't just the best team in the East that's vulnerable: History suggests that Chicago could also face a first-round upset.
The Blackhawks opened the season with 24 consecutive games (including a franchise record of 11 straight wins) without losing in regulation, crushing the previous mark of 16 by the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks and leading to Chicago's first Presidents' Trophy since the 1990-91 season.
It isn't the fictional "Presidents' Trophy curse" that makes Chicago a vulnerable top seed; it's the Blackhawks' 19 wins in one-goal games that could be worrisome.
Since the 2006 playoffs, the team with the most wins in one-goal games has had limited success in the postseason, with only two teams making it out of the first round (the 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes and 2006-07 New Jersey Devils). The five most recent teams have all been bounced in the first round.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Team with the most wins in one-goal games, regular season since 2006[/h]
| Year End | Team | Playoff Result | Wins in 1G games | %Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | CHI | ??? | 19 | 52.8% |
| 2012 | VAN | Lost first round | 27 | 52.9% |
| 2011 | ANA | Lost first round | 29 | 61.7% |
| 2010 | PHX | Lost first round | 29 | 58.0% |
| 2009 | SJS | Lost first round | 26 | 49.1% |
| 2008 | NJD | Lost first round | 27 | 58.7% |
| 2007 | NJD | Lost second round | 32 | 65.3% |
| 2006 | CAR | Won Cup | 28 | 53.8% |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 2 -->
For the Minnesota Wild, who are heading to the postseason for the first time in five years, it will come down to finding a spark with their power play.
The Wild have taken 239 power-play shots (seventh-best), but have scored on just 27 of them (11.3 percent). Mikko Koivu especially has been cold, going 0-for-20 on his shots during the man advantage this season. It won't be easy, but if the Wild can start to convert on their drawn penalties, they could stun Chicago in the first round.
Chance of Wild upset: 9.0 percent
How the other series break down:
[h=3](2) Montreal Canadiens versus (7) Ottawa Senators[/h]
The Canadiens found themselves in a bit of a tailspin as the season came to a close, losing six of their last 10 games. The Senators, on the other hand, managed to keep themselves in the Eastern Conference playoff race after losing top center Jason Spezza, reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, winger Milan Michalek and netminder Craig Anderson to injuries. Now, with all but Spezza back in the lineup, Ottawa could be a fearsome opponent.
Michalek has had four points and 30 shots in the seven games since he returned. Anderson looks like he may be regaining his Vezina-worthy form, stopping 42 of 45 shots in his last two games. Karlsson, though, is the key: When he skates, the Senators outshoot opponents 16-11, and since his return to the ice he has logged more than 27 minutes a night and generated 35 total shot attempts.
This Senators squad, now healthy, is not your average seven seed.
Chance of Senators upset: 45.2 percent
[h=3](3) Washington Capitals versus (6) New York Rangers[/h]
The Capitals have the best power play in the league, converting on 44 of 164 opportunities and going 19-9-2 when they score a power-play goal. At the individual level, Alex Ovechkin and Mike Ribeiro led the NHL in points during the man advantage with 27 each. But the Rangers are the least-penalized team in the league (9.2 per game), and if they can keep the game mostly 5-on-5, then their superior puck possession (53.5 percent of shots in their favor compared to Washington's 48.6 percent) and goaltending (Henrik Lundqvist has a .922 playoff save percentage against the Capitals over the past three years) should carry them through to the next round.
Chance of Rangers upset: 51.9 percent
[h=3](4) Boston Bruins versus (5) Toronto Maple Leafs[/h]
The Bruins are among the class of the East, having the third-most points behind Pittsburgh and Montreal, and they face a Toronto club that is the first team since the 2001-02 Montreal Canadiens to qualify for the postseason with an average shot differential worse than minus-5.
So that should make it a rout for Boston, right? Not exactly. The Maple Leafs have been one of the luckiest teams in the league, having shot almost 11 percent during even strength while holding opponents to a below average 7.4 percent. Typically, this type of "puck luck" evens out over a long season, but with just 48 regular-season games, it could linger for a little bit longer. That's good news for Phil Kessel (10 goals and seven assists in last 10 games) and Joffrey Lupul (13 points in last 10 games), who could continue to find themselves on the score sheet and into the second round.
Chance of Maple Leafs upset: 38.2 percent
[h=3](2) Anaheim Ducks versus (7) Detroit Red Wings[/h]
Detroit returns to the postseason for the 22nd straight year, while the Ducks see postseason play for the first time since losing in the first round to Nashville two years ago.
Despite a bounce-back season by Ryan Getzlaf (47 points in 43 games after just 57 points last year), the one knock on this Ducks squad is its inability to drive puck possession. Less than 49 percent of all even-strength shot attempts have gone in Anaheim's favor, while the Red Wings have seen more than 53 percent of their shots go in when the game is within one goal or tied (FenwickClose%). That could be enough to tilt the series in Detroit's favor.
Chance of Red Wings upset: 51.9 percent
[h=3](3) Vancouver Canucks versus (6) San Jose Sharks[/h]
For the fifth straight season, the Canucks are in the playoffs as the Northwest Division champions thanks in large part to talent of the Sedin twins, an improved blue line and inspired play by goaltender Roberto Luongo, who posted a 9-5-3 record along with a .914 save percentage. But the Canucks have not been great at tilting the ice in their favor at home.
When at Rogers Arena, Vancouver has given up almost as many even-strength shots (21) as it has created (22). That gives San Jose an opportunity to wake up their sticks (shooting just 5.5 percent on the road) and swing home-ice advantage back to the HP Pavilion, where the Sharks went 17-2-5 this season.
Chance of Sharks upset: 48.3 percent
[h=3](4) St. Louis Blues versus (5) Los Angeles Kings[/h]
The Blues finished the season winning 12 of their last 15 games thanks to a rebound performance by goaltender Brian Elliott (.948 save percentage in April). But the Kings are the defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason: They dominate puck possession better than any other team in the league.
When we examine the shot attempts taken based on the score (score-adjusted Fenwick percentage), Los Angeles once again comes out on top (56 percent). Recent teams that have led by this metric fare pretty well during the playoffs, including three Stanley Cups and one more trip to the Finals.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Playoff teams with top score adjusted Fenwick percentage, since 2008[/h]
| Year | Team | Score-Adjusted Fenwick | Playoff Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Detroit | 58.8% | Stanley Cup |
| 2009 | Detroit | 56.6% | Lost in Stanley Cup Finals |
| 2010 | Chicago | 58.8% | Stanley Cup |
| 2011 | San Jose | 54.1% | Lost in Conference Finals |
| 2012 | Pittsburgh | 55.2% | Lost in first round |
| 2012 | Los Angeles after Carter trade | 57.5% | Stanley Cup |
| 2013 | Los Angeles | 56.0% | ??? |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 3 -->
Chance of Kings upset: 51.5 percent
