Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

Top 10 rookies for 2013

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

drafted Thursday night, and I offered my take on each of them. But that doesn't mean there won't be big contributors from among 2013's rookies. As you'll see, there are some fascinating names to know for fantasy that came out of Rounds 2 through 7.
But before I get into the nitty-gritty of possible deep rookie sleepers, here's a first glimpse at my top 10 fantasy rookies for 2013. Although this draft had many strong wideout prospects, you'll see I'm relatively light on WRs here, mainly because until they get into camp, we won't really know which ones are ready to contribute immediately, and which ones are too raw to be rookie fantasy stars. I reserve the right to change my mind, but here's my first take:


1. Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos: Ball lands in a potentially great spot for fantasy value right away. Willis McGahee, who turns 32 in October, is almost certainly gone after suffering a broken leg and torn MCL, and Knowshon Moreno is coming off arthroscopic knee surgery. For a calendar year I've been writing that last year's third-rounder, Ronnie Hillman, is a third-down back, and this pick is an acknowledgement of that. Bottom line: There are a ton of early-down carries available in Denver's elite offense. Ball isn't a top athlete and he doesn't have breakaway speed, but he's instinctive and while he didn't pass protect all that much at Wisconsin, talent evaluators are convinced he's good in that area. Longer term, folks worry about his durability, as he had 1,001 touches in college and rushed for more than 8,000 yards in high school. But for this year, in this offense, there's a chance Ball could approach double-digit TDs. He'll be owned in every fantasy league on the planet, and if McGahee gets released, Ball might be fantasy's top rookie.

2. Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers. Maybe NFL teams were worried about Lacy's surgically repaired toe, or they really hated his pre-draft workouts. For about a day, it appeared that Lacy had landed in the best possible situation for fantasy. Remember when Ryan Grant scored 11 TDs for Green Bay? Remember when John Kuhn stole four TDs every year? Remember when Cedric Benson actually looked pretty good for five games in '12, as defenses were scheming to control Aaron Rodgers? Alas, on Saturday afternoon, the denizens of Titletown traded up and grabbed Johnathan Franklin, too, meaning that while the team's backfield has been successfully remade and we no longer have to worry about uninspiring DuJuan Harris, James Starks or Alex Green, there's a platoon brewing. I favor Lacy over Franklin because of his TD potential.

3. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: I'm not a fan. In fact, I'm shocked the Steelers took Bell while Lacy was still on the board. Bell looks like a beast at 237 pounds, but sometimes runs like he thinks he's a little back. He just doesn't have the power and oomph you expect from a man his size. I had some Twitter followers take me to task for claiming that Bell reminds me of LeGarrette Blount, telling me that Bell led the nation in yards after contact last year. But as my colleague KC Joyner points out here, Bell had an opportunity to produce after contact so much because his line at Michigan State wasn't very good. Listen, Bell lands in a great spot to be a fantasy factor in '13. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman flamed out as potential feature backs last year, plus Todd Haley wants to throw it short and Bell is an accomplished pass catcher, and the Steelers have always liked to run it when they're near an opponent's goal line. Still, I can't help feeling there's bust potential here. I like big backs who always run like big backs.

4. Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis Rams: I wrote about him at length in my review of the draft's Day 1. Suffice it to say he's got a high ceiling, but the Rams need to prove they've fixed their offensive line.


5. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: For as much as I complained about the Tyler Eifert pick for the Bengals, I love this one. Bernard is a ridiculous change-of-direction, lightning-quick player who isn't necessarily a sprinter in the C.J. Spiller class, but he can run away from people in the open field. He's a terrific pass catcher and a sick return man, and early in his career he should complement pedestrian thumper BenJarvus Green-Ellis. There are questions about how physical Bernard is, so perhaps he doesn't get more than change-of-pace early-down work in '13. And BJGE is the clear short-yardage option, so Gio probably doesn't get you a ton of TDs this year. But Bernard is absolutely draftable in all fantasy leagues.
6. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans: I also wrote about Hopkins in my Day 1 review. He's polished and has a chance to start opposite Andre Johnson.

7. Johnathan Franklin, RB, Green Bay Packers: The Pack grabbed two of my top three RBs in this draft, remaking their backfield but setting up a frustrating fantasy mess. Franklin needs to get thicker to hold up to an NFL pounding, but his low-to-the-ground burst is legit, and has evoked comparisons to Ray Rice all spring. After all, Rice entered the combine at 199 pounds and now plays at 212; Franklin is already at 205 with room to grow. Both he and Lacy are every-down players, which is great for Green Bay but vexing for us. Certainly because Lacy is a robust 231 pounds, he figures to be the goal-line thumper, and thus the TD maker. But Franklin is a good enough player that he can steal early-down looks right away.

8. Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys: Randle had more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons at Oklahoma State, but had a bad fumbling problem and didn't grade out as a fast straight-line runner at the combine. He's a tall, thin, upright back who reminds me some of Laurence Maroney. He's more talented than Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner, and should have a decent chance to get into the mix behind DeMarco Murray. Plus Murray is such a huge injury risk, it's not impossible Randle becomes a must-add at some point in '13.

9. Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams: Conventional wisdom had it that the Rams would consider Lacy in the first round, but they waited until the fifth to take a running back. That leads me to believe Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson really are the favorites to lead this backfield, though Stacy was a thick-bodied producer at Vanderbilt and perhaps has more physicality to his game than either Pead or Richardson. Monitor him in camp.

10. Mike Gillislee, RB, Miami Dolphins: A personal favorite of mine, Gillislee lands in a tough spot for fantasy value, behind Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas (for the time being). But this is a good system fit for Gillislee, who was made for a zone-blocking scheme. No question, Gillislee doesn't have Miller's breakaway speed, but I think he has got just about everything else; watching him this past year at Florida, I was reminded of DeAngelo Williams. If Thomas winds up getting released this summer, just be prepared for me to gush about Gillislee.

OK, now let's dig right in with a look at every skill player taken in the second and third rounds, and the skill-position names we might need to know that were taken thereafter. (You'll note that neither Matt Barkley nor Ryan Nassib appears, because each looks like an obvious candidate to be a third-stringer in '13.)

34. Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Titans: The Titans traded up to grab Hunter, who was Cordarrelle Patterson's collegiate teammate. Hunter was a combine star, running 4.44 at 6-foot-4 and 196 pounds, while leading all wideouts in the broad jump and tying for the lead in the high jump. Todd McShay proclaims that Hunter's upside is A.J. Green, though he's nowhere near that level at this moment: His hands are inconsistent, and he's not yet physically strong enough. In his rookie season, Hunter probably won't be a fantasy contributor. However, Kenny Britt is officially on notice. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, Britt will have to stay healthy and out of trouble, or he'll be replaced by Hunter in the starting lineup in '14.

35. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: Well, Chip Kelly officially likes tight ends. The Eagles are still on the hook for a lot of Brent Celek money (though a renegotiation now is certainly a possibility), they signed James Casey this winter, and now they've drafted the consensus No. 2 rookie TE, Ertz. From where I sit, Ertz isn't the athlete Tyler Eifert is, but he's bigger and stronger. However, what I said about the Cincinnati Bengals drafting Eifert on Thursday night applies here, too: There's too much duplication among the tight ends. Between Celek, Casey and Ertz, I don't see an in-line tight end who can run block or pass protect. Sure, Kelly is going to go spread with multiple formations, but he also needs to keep Michael Vick healthy and LeSean McCoy happy. Don't rule out the possibility that Celek hits the road, but until that happens, this is another fantasy mess you don't want any part of.

37. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: See above.

39. Geno Smith, QB, New York Jets: In one way, Smith lands in a tough situation. The Jets don't have a strong roster, their offensive line is shaky, their skill-position players are subpar, and their coach is probably a lame duck. But I actually don't mind this for Geno. Does he have fantasy allure in '13? Absolutely not. But Mark Sanchez is on his way out of Gotham, and I make Smith the favorite to start Week 1. Plus, even though I expect the Jets to struggle, Smith won't be blamed. He'll get through his growing pains, and be ready to improve as the team cleans house. The question remains whether he can become consistent enough with his accuracy; if he can, this is an absolute steal.

41. Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills: After a ridiculous sophomore year, Woods took a back seat to Marqise Lee this past season, but his skills on tape remain the same: He's a polished player with good hands and great quickness who's probably best suited to play the slot in the NFL. However, the Bills have already said they want to move Steve Johnson to the slot in '13, which makes Woods a candidate to play flanker. (Burners T.J. Graham, Marquise Goodwin and Da'Rick Rogers have shots to stick as the split end.) He's not going to get open deep, but Woods can definitely make things happen after the catch. The issue all Bills wideouts will have this season is their QB: Whether it's Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel, I'm not convinced there's enough production available to make Woods, Graham or Goodwin worth owning in standard fantasy leagues.

47. Gavin Escobar, TE, Dallas Cowboys: Escobar is a catch-first tight end who lined up all over in San Diego State's pro-style offense and was super-productive. However, there are major questions about Escobar's strength and he may never be a pro-level blocker. Plus, he timed out at only 4.84 in Indianapolis, putting him in offensive-lineman territory. Nevertheless, he's a talented enough athlete that it's hard to dislike him as a prospect down the line. My issue is with the Cowboys taking him early in the second round, when they still have a productive Jason Witten on their roster, and when '12 sixth-rounder James Hanna played well late last year as a rookie. For as long as Witten is around, Escobar is undraftable for fantasy.

48. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: See above.

55. Vance McDonald, TE, San Francisco 49ers: Nobody really knows what the 49ers are getting in McDonald, because he played in Rice's spread attack and was rarely asked to block. But the fact that he was able to bench 31 reps at the combine -- seven more than any other TE -- is a good sign. Remember that Delanie Walker left the Bay Area as a free agent this winter, and Walker is maybe the premiere run-blocking TE in the NFL. Jim Harbaugh would love it if McDonald could fill those shoes, but only time will tell if that'll happen. Obviously with Vernon Davis around, McDonald has limited fantasy potential as a rookie.

58. Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos: See above.

59. Aaron Dobson, WR, New England Patriots: The Pats have had an awful time drafting wideouts. Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate and Taylor Price have all been selected in the first three rounds during the Bill Belichick era. Maybe if there's a way to reverse that curse, it's by going with a pass catcher from Marshall, the university Randy Moss and Troy Brown attended. Dobson isn't the burner Pats fans hoped for (maybe Josh Boyce, whom they took in the fourth round, can fill that role), but he's got size enough to play flanker. He's got tremendous hands and body control, and enough "football intelligence" to adapt quickly to Tom Brady's intricate throwing offense. If there's a question mark, it's his burst coming out of breaks. But Dobson has a legit chance to play early, considering the non-rookie depth chart after Danny Amendola: Julian Edelman, Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones and Matthew Slater. Pay attention to Dobson and Boyce in camp this summer.

61. Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers: See above.

62. Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Michael suffered a broken leg and torn ACL in different collegiate seasons, and also was suspended for a game this past season, plus threw a punch in a different contest. But Michael also might be the most talented RB in this draft. He's got elite top-end speed, he's explosive through the line of scrimmage and runs behind his pads, drives defenders after contact, led all RBs with 27 bench reps at the combine, and had a 43-inch vertical. But the Seahawks' depth chart is clogged with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, meaning it would take an injury for Michael to be addable in fantasy for '13.

63. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs already have Anthony Fasano and Tony Moeaki on hand, but neither player is good enough to criticize KC for selecting Kelce. An athletic specimen who ran the Wildcat on occasion at Cincinnati, Kelce is best known for being a pro-ready run-blocking mauler. He was suspended for the entire '10 season but was a good citizen thereafter, becoming a better pass catcher during his senior year. If it works out that Kelce passes the Fasano/Moeaki combo during training camp, he'd be interesting for fantasy. It's likelier that he'll be a reserve in '13.

73. Mike Glennon, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman is in the final year of his rookie contract, and while his '12 numbers looked fine, his play was inconsistent. Perhaps by drafting Glennon, the Bucs are trying to light a fire under Freeman. Glennon won't contribute in '13, and is a project himself: He's 6-foot-7 with a rocket arm, but his accuracy is maddening.

74. Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys: Williams timed at "only" 4.52 at the combine, which explains how this unanimous first-team All-American lasted this long; he's supposed to be a vertical threat, but if he can't burn, he won't be worth much. That's because he's considered a stiff-hipped player who doesn't run great routes and it's fair to be skeptical of Big 12 wideouts racking up video-game numbers against weak conference defenses. I don't see Williams cracking the Cowboys' WR rotation in '13 without an injury; Dez Bryant is a stud, Miles Austin makes a whole lot of scratch, and guys like Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley and Danny Coale are better suited to play from the slot. But Austin has battled so many leg injuries, Williams could have a chance to be a factor in future seasons.

76. Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers: He's the Eddie Lacy of wideouts. I don't understand how he lasted this long, and I think we'll look back on this draft and be shocked that he was a third-rounder. Sure, he missed the final month of '12 with a knee injury that bugged him through the pre-draft process, but watch his tape and you see Mr. Smooth. He's got great hands. He runs perfect routes. He's tough to bring down. He's tough in traffic. ESPN's Bill Polian has said many times he thinks Allen is Reggie Wayne, a player Polian knows a thing or two about. Is Allen a little slower than maybe you'd like? It's possible. But if he's not Wayne, he's Anquan Boldin, which is still terrific. Now, the San Diego depth chart is a mess: Danario Alexander, Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem and Vincent Brown are all around. Allen will need player movement to be draftable in '13. But boy, I like him.

78. Marquise Goodwin, WR, Buffalo Bills: Really? Is the Bills' roster really so stocked that they can afford to take another straight-line burner, when they just drafted T.J. Graham last year? Goodwin is a 4.27 sprinter and an Olympic-level long jumper, but he doesn't run good routes and doesn't figure to do anything but scoot down the field with his hand up this year, much as Graham did in '12. Goodwin may help in the return game, and heck, maybe he plays some split end. But he won't contribute regularly as a rookie.

79. Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: This is a nice pick. I'm not convinced Wheaton is really a burner (his 4.45 speed at the combine would say otherwise), but there's no doubting his joystick quicks. Is he physical enough to play outside? We'll have to see. But add Wheaton to Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, and you've got the ideal receiver corps for Todd Haley: A bunch of interchangeable, lightning-quick, undersized guys who can catch short passes in space and make big plays.

85. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins: A converted college QB, Reed will serve as insurance in case Fred Davis isn't ready to return from his torn Achilles, plus could inherit the starting job if Davis leaves after '13. Don't expect a big fantasy contribution this year.

92. Stedman Bailey, WR, St. Louis Rams: Bailey is reunited with college teammate Tavon Austin in St. Louis, and could see playing time as a rookie. He's a technically precise route runner with great hands, but without deep speed. Chris Givens will have one starting outside receiver job, but if Brian Quick isn't ready on the other side, it's possible Bailey gives him a run for his money. Of course, we're talking about ancillary weapons for a team that gives up too many sacks, so we're probably not looking at much fantasy value in '13 for Bailey.

96. Knile Davis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Here's a crazy stat: 6.4 percent of Davis' career collegiate carries ended in fumbles. Wow! That's not good. Of course, in KC, he won't play much as a rookie with Jamaal Charles around. In fact, Davis may not beat out Shaun Draughn to be J-Mail's backup. A straight-line sprinter with 4.37 speed, Davis never showed much wiggle or power at Arkansas. Don't draft him in '13.
102. Josh Boyce, WR, New England Patriots: Boyce burned up the combine turf with a 4.38 40 despite having a broken toe, so maybe he's the speed threat Tom Brady has lacked for several years. But Boyce is also relatively undersized for a deep threat (5-foot-11, 206 pounds). Because of the system, he's another guy to check in on this summer, along with fellow Pats rookie Aaron Dobson.

112. Tyler Wilson, QB, Oakland Raiders: Wilson lands in a friendly spot, as the Raiders currently have Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor on the depth chart. Wilson was actually my No. 2 QB in this draft (albeit far behind Geno Smith), because he's got excellent pocket presence and has enough wing to take downfield shots. Unfortunately, his final year at Arkansas revealed all kinds of accuracy problems, plus Wilson crumbled a little bit as the Razorbacks' season imploded. Does Wilson have a chance to win the starting gig as a rookie? I would say yes. Does that make him a fantasy option? Probably not.

125. Johnathan Franklin, RB, Green Bay Packers: See above.

128. Quinton Patton, WR, San Francisco 49ers: Patton doesn't land in a great spot for immediate fantasy value, but I'm not a fan of A.J. Jenkins, and wouldn't be shocked to see Patton bypass him on the Niners' depth chart immediately. Jenkins is straight-line faster than Patton, but he's not as fluid an athlete or as smooth a route runner; one guy is a sprinter, and the other is a natural football player. Of course, each will come behind Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis in the pecking order this year.

131. Marcus Lattimore, RB, San Francisco 49ers: Will Lattimore ever be the same player he was before his devastating knee injuries at South Carolina? First he tore his left ACL in '11, and looked several steps slow at the beginning of last season. He finally seemed to be coming around later in the year, but destroyed his right ACL, LCL and PCL in a gruesome event. This kid could've been a top-five pick without injury, and maybe he returns to form someday. But I'd have to consider it unlikely he's a contributor as a rookie.

140. Stepfan Taylor, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Taylor is Stanford's all-time leading rusher and is already an elite pass protector, which could lead to some early playing time if Rashard Mendenhall and/or Ryan Williams can't hack it. But Taylor is slow at 4.76 in the 40, and is neither an elite athlete nor a large battering ram, plus Arizona also selected the more dynamic Andre Ellington in this draft. Taylor probably won't be a major fantasy force in his pro career.

144. Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints: Big 12 receivers are so tough to evaluate because the conference's defenses aren't very good. But when a burner like Stills (4.38 at the combine) gets linked up with a pass offense like New Orleans', we'd be dumb not to take note. The assumption this winter has been that Joe Morgan would be the deep threat to replace Devery Henderson, but Stills will get a chance to impress this summer.

151. Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys: See above.

160. Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams: See above.

164. Mike Gillislee, RB, Miami Dolphins: See above.

171. Corey Fuller, WR, Detroit Lions: A former hoops player with a scorching first few steps, Fuller doesn't max out as a top burner, but if he gains some upper body strength, he could be a tough man to cover off the line. The reason he appears on this list is the Lions are the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL, and have no sure things in their receiving corps behind Calvin Johnson. Fuller could beat out Nate Burleson this summer.

181. Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders: Murray, too, is more about the depth chart than about his own excellence. Darren McFadden is injury-prone, and only Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Stewart back up Run-DMC. Murray played at UCF (home of former Lions starter Kevin Smith), is 6-foot-2 and 223 pounds, and reportedly ran a 4.38 at his pro day, but didn't prove himself at college football's highest level. Still, he could get involved as a rookie.

187. Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals: I preferred Ellington to fellow Arizona draftee Stepfan Taylor all spring, and I'll stand by that now. Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams will get first crack at the Cards' backfield this summer, but no one would be shocked if one or both of those guys wound up hurt in '13. Ellington is a burner (he pulled a hammy during his 40 at the combine) and is already a terrific pass blocker (like Taylor).

[h=1]Early impact from Round 1[/h][h=3]Tyler Eifert and Jarvis Jones among picks who could have an early impact[/h]
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

In Round 1 of the NFL draft, you're drafting starters. It doesn't have to be Week 1, or even for most of the season, but if you're not getting a reasonable level of productivity out of most first-round picks, you're having problems. In the past four years, going backward from 2012 to 2009, the Oakland Raiders have had no pick; no pick; Rolando McClain; and Darrius Heyward-Bey to show for Round 1, and it's a big reason they're rebuilding that roster. The pick has to stick.

There are exceptions, of course. Maybe you have a developmental plan at QB; maybe the prospect is raw but with an extremely high ceiling. But each of the first 11 picks in last year's draft were starters immediately, and almost every first-rounder had an impact, outside of David DeCastro, who got hurt, and A.J. Jenkins, who ran into a stocked depth chart.

For this, I was asked to pick some "impact" players from Round 1. That means guys positioned for impact in 2013. This does NOT mean these are the best players in this draft. It's just noting who seems to have been drafted into a situation where they have a chance to succeed, and have the skills to do it.

Here they are:

[h=3]Offense[/h]
Tavon Austin, WR, No. 8 to St. Louis Rams
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Easy choice. It's not just because Austin is so good, or that St. Louis dealt up to get him and wouldn't have done so if he wasn't going to be used, it's because he was taken specifically to fill the void left by the departure of Danny Amendola. The Rams also added Stedman Bailey, and when you factor in the development of both Chris Givens and Brian Quick, as well as the addition of TE Jared Cook in free agency, it's not like teams can just key on Austin and call it a day. He'll get his touches.

Jonathan Cooper, G, No. 7 to Arizona Cardinals

If we did a poll of evaluators and asked, "Which rookie is most likely to make the Pro Bowl?" I think Cooper would get a lot of votes. He has an NFL-ready skill set, is versatile and could be a very good NFL player at either guard or center, and he's going to start immediately. He'll have an impact.

Tyler Eifert, TE, No. 21 to Cincinnati Bengals

I think there are going to be a lot of teams kicking themselves for not taking Eifert. He's a problematic matchup, and in Cincinnati, he has a QB dying to get more from intermediate and middle-of-the-field throws, where Jermaine Gresham hasn't quite lived up to his potential yet. And remember, Gresham, A.J. Green and now the pass-catching presence of RB Giovani Bernard will make teams juggle in coverage. Eifert will get his targets.

[h=3]More[/h]
Eric Fisher will struggle some, but he'll be at left tackle with the Chiefs, and I'd expect a very positive growth curve. He just needs to adjust to the competition level ... Travis Frederick was a reach at No. 31 overall, but that doesn't mean he won't be worth it. The Cowboys need stability at center, and they took Frederick with the plan to start him in Week 1 ... Cordarrelle Patterson has a lot to learn, but he'll be out there early. I'd be surprised if the Vikings don't create a lot of short throws for him, with quick routes where he gets the ball and uses his greatest skill, the run after the catch.

[h=3]Defense[/h]
Jarvis Jones, OLB, No. 17 to Pittsburgh Steelers

A relentless pass-rusher, Jones led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss last season at Georgia. Not only does he go to a team where he'll be asked to step in immediately as an outside linebacker, the presence of LaMarr Woodley on the other side should allow Jones some favorable blocking matchups to exploit. He's seen chips, he's faced double-teams, and what he lacks in explosiveness he can offer in relentlessness.

One added thought on Jones: I know there's criticism that a lot of his production came via blitzing. Well, if you're Dick Lebeau, a defensive coordinator who knows how to bring pressure in a lot of different ways, I don't think you see "very good blitzer" as a negative. The Steelers can be creative with Jones, and I think he'll produce.

Kenny Vaccaro, S, No. 15 to New Orleans Saints

When you give up more than 7,000 yards of offense, you're in need of talent, period. Well, Vaccaro will be impactful because he's several different kinds of player in one. He's adept in coverage so he'll slow down the deep passing. He can also come up to the line and work as a nickel slot when needed, so he can help against the short stuff. And he's an effective tackler who isn't afraid to close and tackle in the run game. The Saints need players on defense. Vaccaro, in a way, gives them several.

Matt Elam, S, No. 32 to Baltimore Ravens

It's not fair to say Elam is "replacing Ed Reed" because in a technical sense, center field will more often be manned by Michael Huff. No, where Elam becomes hugely important is as that safety who can make plays not just in the passing game, but in the box. He has a fearless style and loves to make hits at the line of scimmage -- this for a team that didn't lose just Reed, but also a pair of linebackers. Elam won't replace Reed, but he has traits that can help fill the void of several departures.

[h=3]More[/h]
Sheldon Richardson wasn't drafted by the Jets to wait behind other good defensive tackles. I'd expect to see Rex Ryan shift some things and get his three best defensive linemen on the field together ... Dee Milliner is in a perfect situation to succeed with the Jets, because he does need some technical work and Antonio Cromartie takes some pressure off in terms of matchups ... Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff moved up for Desmond Trufant because they want a corner who can play. Now. Given Atlanta's goals, the pressure will be on.

so excited to see football news
like Austin in fantasy, not in love with any of the RB's

curious how much Bell will play for Pitt though

[h=1]Top fantasy rookie RBs for 2013[/h][h=3]Ball, Lacy and Franklin among first-year ballcarriers with high fantasy upside[/h]
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

One thing was overwhelmingly clear during the 2013 ESPN fantasy football rankings summit: The pickings are quite slim for fantasy football running backs in 2013, especially after the first 15 players at that position are off the board.

That unfortunate fact means fantasy football owners will have to mimic NFL teams and take more chances on rookie running backs than they might normally do in a typical season.

To assist fantasy owners in this endeavor, here are deeper-dive looks at seven first-year ball carriers who are likely to be entrusted with the pigskin quite often in 2013.

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos

Ball landed a first-place rating on Christopher Harris' list of top fantasy football rookies for 2013, in part because of the Broncos' backfield situation that makes, "a ton of early-down carries available in Denver's elite offense."
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Ball adds value to that opportunity because of his ability to post gains even when the opposing team stacks the box. He racked up 33 rushing touchdowns during his Heisman Trophy-caliber 2011 season, and followed that up with 22 rushing scores in 2012, a mark that was third highest among BCS conference ball carriers, so goal-line carries will also be available to him. This combination of factors is why Ball ended up ranked 19th among running backs in the aforementioned rankings summit.

Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin, Green Bay Packers


Lacy was one of the highest-rated rushers in this year's NFL draft in part because he posted a 9.4-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges productivity when a ball carrier is given good blocking. Anything above the 9-yard level in that category is considered top-flight, and Lacy did this for two straight years (10.4 GBYPA in 2011), so he gives the Packers a rare power back who can break off his share of long gains.

Franklin wasn't as highly touted as Lacy in the run-up to the draft, but he should have been. He bested Lacy in GBYPA (10.1) despite playing behind an offensive line that wasn't as dominant as Alabama's. Franklin also had a higher yards per reception total (9.79 for Franklin, 8.59 for Lacy), and his lead in that category could have been even bigger if a 54-yard reception he had on a pass out of the backfield against Nebraska would not have been ruled a rush attempt due to being a lateral. Change that rush into a pass and Franklin's YPC jumps to a ridiculously high 11.1 yards.

Franklin also has a well-earned reputation for being a terrific pass-blocker (Scouts Inc. gave him a "1" rating in the pass game in part because of this) and a great work/leadership ethic. Plus, his background as UCLA's all-time leading rusher shows he can handle a large workload.

Don't be surprised if the Packers end up using a thunder (Lacy) and lightning (Franklin) backfield, but with more of an emphasis on the lightning end of that equation. Both should be considered solid RB3 candidates.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

Bernard was the first running back selected in the 2013 NFL draft because the Bengals need more explosiveness than BenJarvus Green-Ellis provided last year (his 3.94 YPC ranked 12th out of 14 running backs with 250 or more carries).

Bernard ranked sixth among qualifying running backs in BCS conferences in yards per carry (6.67) and first in that category among backs with at least 150 carries, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Bernard also tallied 92 receptions over the past two years, a total that was surpassed by only four other running backs, so he adds extra value in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

The Bengals are likely to make this a platoon backfield, but Bernard's speed and pass-catching ability make him the higher rated among these two. Consider Bernard an RB3 and Green-Ellis an RB4.

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Bell has a mixture of good and bad numbers. He posted a solid 8.1 GBYPA in 2011 and led BCS conference running backs in yards after contact. However, his GBYPA plummeted to 5.6 in games against tough rush defenses in 2012.

Those figures indicate that Bell could be the next Shonn Greene, but it should be noted that Greene finished last season with 155 fantasy points even as a part of a bad offense, a total that ranked 15th among running backs. If Pittsburgh's offensive line holds up better health-wise this year than it did last season, it is possible Bell's upside could be even higher than Greene's, and that makes him a solid midrange RB3.

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals

There is a perception that Ellington lacks top-end speed (he is listed as having a 4.45 40-yard dash time), yet he still managed to post an 8.3-yard GBYPA mark last season despite having more than a few issues coordinating his efforts with his offensive line.

The Cardinals do need to fix their offensive line issues (they had the worst good blocking rate in the league last year), but if Bruce Arians and his staff can solve some of those issues while coaching Ellington to more effectively utilize his linemen's efforts, there is solid sleeper potential here. Consider Ellington a good late-round pickup.

Kenjon Barner, Carolina Panthers

Barner posted a superb 10.4 GBYPA in a five-game sample against the toughest rush defenses Oregon faced in the 2011 season. He followed that up with a 2012 campaign in which he ranked third in YPC among BCS conference running backs with 200 or more carries. Barner also racked up 21 rushing touchdowns last season, so he very well could vulture some of the seven rushing scores fullback Mike Tolbert scored for the Panthers last year. There are few late-round running backs who will offer more upside in a fantasy draft.

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Updated: May 7, 2013, 1:45 PM ET

The NFL Draft is done, free agents have (mostly) found their new teams and I lap up every single Robert Griffin III update like a crazed, thirsty dog in the desert. "He did jumping jacks at the team rally! Oooh oooh ooh!" Clearly, time to update the rankings.


There are still some questions, of course. Is Montee Ball going to be the MAN in Denver? (I say yes). Is Maurice Jones-Drew 100 percent healthy? If so, he'll be higher than he is now. What about Rob Gronkowski? He's either ranked too low or too high, I can tell you that right now, based on if he starts the season or not. I split the difference here, putting him one spot ahead of DeMarco Murray. Both guys are injury prone, only Gronk has a great chance to finish the year at No. 1 at his position. DeMarco? He has a chance to finish the season.
Much has stayed the same, of course. Quarterback and wide receiver are still very deep positions and that's reflected in certain players being lower than their talent might otherwise dictate; you start only one QB and, at most, three wide receivers in a standard ESPN 10-team league. Which is a nice segue to mention that these ranks are designed specifically for those leagues, which use four points per touchdown pass and one point per 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving, six points for a rushing or receiving touchdown, and zero points per reception.
Now, such a league is only 160 players deep, but I ranked 200, because I want extra credit. (There's no extra credit? This is awkward.) This is for multiple-sized leagues, but it follows my draft philosophy, which is to wait until the final two rounds for a defense and kicker. If you decided to use this for a 10-team, 16-round league, you'd move the defenses and kickers up to the 141-160 slots.

I generally ranked with safety in mind early, and then with upside as it gets later in the ranks. In addition to discounting quarterbacks and wide receivers for depth of position, I also ranked, in general, running backs over wideouts because after the top level, running backs have a bunch of question marks. And while there are some guys I like more than others (as you'll see) at tight end, if I don't get one of the top five guys, I want to be the last in my league to fill that position.
In the sections where there are a lot of the same position in a row (such as five quarterbacks), that's my way of saying I think these guys are all in a tier together and it's really about personal preference. I've put them in the order I would draft them, but it's all very close.
Finally, before you peruse these ranks, always check the "Updated" date to know how up-to-date they are throughout the preseason. I'll update them as news warrants, but not for every single move. Any questions or concerns? Am I too high on someone or not high enough on another? Let me know on Twitter and Facebook.
[h=3]Matthew Berry's Top 200 for 2013[/h]

[h=1]Five breakout fantasy players[/h][h=3]Bernard Pierce among five second-year players who could have big seasons[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

The fantasy football world has been blessed with a slew of dominant rookie players over the past two years. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson added depth to an already deep quarterback position, A.J. Green and Julio Jones proved first-year wideouts can score big points, and Doug Martin and Alfred Morris shored up the thin fantasy running back corps.

Performances like this tend to make fantasy owners pay an inordinate amount of attention to the NFL's newcomers, but what about those players who take until their second season before they experience a breakout campaign?

Here are five second-year candidates who fit this bill and could be primed for top-notch fantasy football performance in 2013.

[h=3]Bernard Pierce, RB, Baltimore Ravens[/h]
Pierce's value depends on how much of the rushing workload Baltimore is willing to take from Ray Rice.

Moving carries away from Rice might seem like a low-percentage proposition, but consider what history tells us about high-volume workloads.

According to pro-football-reference.com, only 122 players in NFL history have tallied at least 1,500 touches (defined as rushes plus receptions) over the course of their career. Eleven of those players are active, so that leaves us with a list of 111 historical candidates.
<OFFER>Only 65 of those players made it to 1,800 career touches, and only 42 made it to 2,100. That means only 59 percent of the 1,500-touch players were able to add 300 more touches, and only 38 percent added 600 more.

Rice has been in the league for five seasons and has racked up 1,534 touches, an average of just over 300 touches per season. He may continue at that rush/reception level, but the historical evidence is such that the Ravens have to consider whether that is a pace they want the 5-foot-8, 212-pound Rice to continue.

That mindset is supported by the productivity numbers indicating the Ravens should be giving more carries to Pierce.

Last year, Pierce racked up a 9.7-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt metric that gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rushing attempt). Rice posted a 7.2 GBYPA mark last year, a total that ranked tied for 19th out of the 42 running backs with at least 100 carries.

Moving Pierce to the 200-250 rush/reception level would make fuller use of his abilities while still giving Rice plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills. Look for Baltimore to make this move to a platoon backfield and thus vault Pierce's fantasy draft value to flex start-caliber status.

[h=3]Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins[/h]
If one measures Tannehill on the entirety of his 2012 season, he doesn't hold up well, as he tallied only 171 fantasy points.

If the measurement is done for Weeks 12-16, his prospects start to look a lot better. He posted 77 fantasy points during that five-week period, a total that was tied for 13th among fantasy quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

That type of performance places him into consideration for midrange QB2 status, and that was before the addition of speedy wide receiver Mike Wallace in free agency. The Dolphins are going to go all out to help Wallace get back to his peak levels and justify their big contract expenditure.

Miami also added tight end Dustin Keller and re-signed underrated wideout Brian Hartline, two moves that were key in giving the Dolphins one of the best AFC free-agent grades this offseason.

Mix it all together and Tannehill looks like a low-end QB2/high-end QB3 draft-day prospect who could end up providing a fantasy team with mid- to upper-range QB2 numbers during the season.

[h=3]David Wilson, RB, New York Giants[/h]
Wilson could not have started his 2012 season on a worse note, as a lost fumble on his second NFL carry led to him seeing only 26 more carries over the Giants' next 11 games. His prospects started to turn around late in the year, as Wilson notched two double-digit point totals in New York's last four games.

That turnaround is on pace to continue in 2013, as Wilson is slated to be the lead back for a team that ranked sixth in the league in good blocking rate last year (48.7 percent).

Wilson has shown that he knows what to do in those good blocking situations, as he racked up an insanely high 11-yard GBYPA last year. That total was generated on only 71 carries, which placed Wilson 29 carries short of reaching the qualifying mark for running backs in that category, but had he posted that GBYPA total over the course of 100 carries, it would have placed him second in the league. He is a midrange RB2 candidate who could post high-end RB1 numbers in more than a few games.

[h=3]T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts[/h]
Hilton may not be considered a WR2 in many fantasy draft rooms, but there is a case to be made that he should be. He ranked 21st in wide receiver fantasy points last year. His 133 points were more than the marks posted by Cecil Shorts (132), Steve Johnson (131), Jeremy Maclin (119) or Jordy Nelson (114). Hilton was also one of only two wideouts (James Jones being the other) to rank in the top 25 in wide receiver scoring despite tallying fewer than 100 targets, so he has big-time potential on a higher target volume.

His homestretch numbers last year were also superb. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Hilton ranked sixth in wide receiver fantasy points (85) from Weeks 11-17. He got 55 of those points on vertical throws (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield), a total ranked fifth among wideouts in that time frame. Snagging him as a WR3 could be one of the best moves a fantasy owner makes on draft day.

[h=3]Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]
Blackmon brings a significant risk element to any fantasy team since he is slated to start the season by serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

He also had little chemistry when working with Blaine Gabbert in Weeks 1-10, as ESPN Stats & Information tracked Blackmon as scoring only 29 fantasy points, a total that tied for 73rd among wideouts during that period.

Those are the reasons he will be avoided by many fantasy owners, but the reason he gets a spot on this list is because of how he performed when Chad Henne was under center.

In Weeks 11-17, the games where Henne either started or played most of the game (taking over for an injured Gabbert in the Week 11 contest at Houston), Blackmon racked up 83 points, a total that ranked seventh among wide receivers in that time frame.

Gabbert's subpar history -- only two quarterbacks have a worse Total QBR mark over the past two seasons -- suggests that he may not make it through the 2013 season as the Jaguars starter. If Henne does end up taking over at some point this year, Blackmon could once again end up being a starting-caliber fantasy wideout during the second half of the season. That makes him worth drafting and stashing away, especially since his cost will likely be quite low (a WR5 or WR6 spot in most draft rooms).

Gronkowski no sure thing for Week 1

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski has now undergone four surgeries on his left forearm; this much we know for sure. All the chatter since his most recent procedure indicates optimism on the part of the Patriots with regard to Gronkowski's progress. But what are we to expect realistically heading into the 2013 season?

At this point, the questions far outnumber the definitive answers when it comes to Gronkowski's health. It only makes sense to recap the series of events that have comprised the Gronkowski forearm saga to differentiate what is known from what is not known at this point. Then, perhaps, we can try to gauge what to expect when the Patriots open their season this September.

[h=3]Known[/h]
Nov. 18, 2012: Gronkowski breaks one of two bones in his left forearm, the ulna, while blocking on an extra-point attempt. The ulna runs from the elbow to the pinkie finger. Of the two forearm bones, it is the one more vulnerable to injury during blocking plays in football. The fracture requires surgical stabilization, which is performed by team orthopedist Dr. Thomas Gill. The surgery is deemed successful and Gronkowski embarks on a program to maintain physical conditioning, gradually transitioning to rehab as the forearm permits. Expected downtime is somewhere in the neighborhood of four to six weeks, depending on how the bone healing progresses.

Dec. 30, 2012: Gronkowski returns to action in the Patriots' regular-season finale against the Miami Dolphins, exactly six weeks post-injury. He has two catches for 42 yards and a touchdown.


Jan. 13, 2013: During a divisional playoff game against the Houston Texans, Gronkowski takes a fall and lands on his left forearm (which is sporting a protective shell wrapped in padding). The fall is not unusual and is not out of the realm of normal for Gronkowski. It is obvious, though, when he gets up from the ground that he is not comfortable and he is removed from the game. It is later reported that Gronkowski has re-fractured his forearm (exactly eight weeks after the original injury) and will require a second surgery to insert new hardware and stabilize the ulna. His season is over.

Jan. 14, 2013: Gronkowski undergoes surgery to repair the second fracture in his forearm, which involves replacing the original hardware. The break is in a slightly different location on the ulna than the original fracture, just above the location of the original plate, a phenomenon that is not uncommon. (Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith also suffered two consecutive forearm fractures in 2009-10. Although his injuries were to the other forearm bone, the radius, he also required two surgeries with hardware but was then able to return to competition.)

February 2013: Gronkowski is diagnosed with an infection in his forearm. He undergoes an open procedure to wash out the forearm in an effort to clear the infection and is subsequently placed on a course of antibiotics.

May 20, 2013: Gronkowski undergoes procedure No. 4, surgery to remove the hardware implanted in the second procedure and replace it with fresh hardware. The surgery is performed by Dr. Jesse Jupiter. Tissue biopsies are performed, but it is reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter that doctors are encouraged the infection has finally resolved.

[h=3]Unknown[/h]
The original cause of the infection is not known, nor does it necessarily matter. Any time an invasive procedure takes place, there is a risk of infection; ultimately the most important thing is complete eradication of the infection in order to avoid more serious health complications and to achieve full bone healing. During the interval between the cleanout procedure and this surgery, there was a window (after Gronkowski had completed a post-surgical course of antibiotics) where the infection could have cropped up again. Lab tests and observation would have been ongoing during that window and Gronkowski's timetable leading up to the fourth procedure suggests there was no measurable evidence of infection recurrence. The next step was to test the tissue directly intra-operatively, hence the biopsies.

Early reports following Gronkowski's fourth procedure suggest the infection appears to have cleared. While those reports are encouraging, it is too soon to be 100 percent sure that it is gone. Should the infection persist, alternative measures would need to be taken, which could threaten Gronkowski's status for the season. The hope, clearly, is that the infection will not be an issue going forward, but that remains, as of this writing, an unknown.


If the infection is indeed a thing of the past, the assumption is that Gronkowski's forearm bone will now be able to heal completely, but that also remains uncertain. Given the setbacks in the healing process thus far, it can be expected to be a slower progression than after the initial break. If all goes well from this point forward, the anticipated timetable for the bone to repair itself to the degree necessary to absorb contact in football would likely be on the order of three to four months. Although the ulna is not typically thought of as a weight-bearing bone, it becomes one for a football player who must be able to make contact in the form of blocking or fall with full body weight onto the forearm. Given that Gronkowski initially broke his forearm on a blocking play and subsequently re-fractured it on a fall, along with the delayed healing of the bone thus far and the need for him to repeatedly perform those same injury-provoking activities upon return to play, the medical staff will undoubtedly want convincing evidence of bone healing before allowing him to engage in contact. Training camp begins in a little more than two months. It is hard to imagine him being cleared for full activity by then. Assuming the healing progresses well, there are no motion restrictions and he regains full strength in the forearm, there will be a gradual reintroduction of load-bearing or contact activities. The question then becomes whether there is enough time on the calendar clock to meet the start of the 2013 season.

It would not come as a huge surprise if Gronkowski were to start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. He would then be forced to miss at least the first six games, but could extend his absence if needed. As ESPN's NFC West blogger Mike Sando notes, this year's revision of the rules governing return to practice after being placed on the PUP list allows players until after their team's 11th game to be activated. They then have up to three additional weeks to return to game action.

But that's not all.

[h=3]The Back[/h]
It is also being reported by Schefter that Gronkowski will be consulting with Dr. Robert Watkins in three to four weeks regarding the possibility of back surgery. Spine problems are nothing new for Gronkowski, who underwent surgery to address a disk problem -- performed by Watkins -- while in college at Arizona. There was much discussion about Gronkowski's long-term back health during the 2010 NFL draft, since he had missed the entire previous college season as a result of the ailment. The Patriots opted to take a chance on that back health, however, and it seemed to pay off. In fact, Gronkowski did not miss any time during his rookie year and injured himself (high-ankle sprain) only late in the playoffs of the 2011 season.

But in the past year there were signs that the back was again becoming a problem. Gronkowski appeared on the injury report for multiple weeks beginning in late September with a "hip" problem (hip problems are often linked to low back problems and, in fact, there were rumblings at the time that his back was at least a part of the issue). Despite Gronkowski playing through the ailment, he did not always appear to move well and even appeared to be struggling at times before injuring his forearm in late November.

It is not surprising, then, that as he has ramped up his training following the forearm procedures, the back is making itself heard again. After all, back problems are rarely a single-episode occurrence. It is common after undergoing surgery at one spinal level to have subsequent issues at another level of the spine. It is also common to have more than one level be affected at any given phase; it may just have been a matter of time before this current area of Gronkowski's back began to bark. According to ESPN Boston, this is not the same issue which plagued him at Arizona. This merely suggests it is not the same spinal level which is giving him trouble. The spine is an integrated unit and compromised health at one spinal motion segment (two vertebrae and the disk in between) will affect the others around it. The problem may take time to manifest itself and one can often function well for an extended period of time, just as Gronkowski has, without incident. But sooner or later, there can be associated problems.

The back issue doesn't necessarily threaten Gronkowski's career; it just becomes something else that needs to be addressed. Conservative measures such as rehabilitation are typically the first treatment of choice and it would seem that has been the road map so far for Gronkowski. If the symptoms persist, then other more aggressive measures are considered, but surgery, as of yet, is not a foregone conclusion. Since Gronkowski will already be forced to take it slow to allow his forearm to heal, the thought could be that he can rehab both areas simultaneously. Still, surgery or no surgery, the acknowledgment that his back is giving him this type of trouble makes his overall health status heading into the 2013 season that much less certain.

This is still very much an evolving situation for the young star tight end, and there will be much more to watch for as the summer progresses. The optimal scenario would have Gronkowski fully healed and ready to start the 2013 season on time. While not impossible, it certainly does not seem likely.

Everything would have to happen perfectly from here forward, and the road has been anything but perfect thus far. A more likely scenario would have Gronkowski joining the team at some point after the season has begun, but it is too soon to say just when that might be.

In the end, the most critical overall outcome is one in which Gronkowski is infection-free with full healing of his forearm. Only then can football even begin to be a consideration.

Gronk to have back surgery

ESPN.com news services

, Herm Edwards, Mark Schlereth, NFL LiveCan Patriots Win Without Gronkowski?[h=5]Can Patriots Win Without Gronkowski?[/h]Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards and Mark Schlereth discuss the reports that Rob Gronkowski will undergo back surgery.Tags: New England Patriots, Rob Gronkowski, Back Surgery, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, Mark Schlereth, NFL Live

• Long-term Concerns For Rob Gronkowski[h=5]Long-term Concerns For Rob Gronkowski[/h]ESPN injury analyst Stephania Bell discusses Rob Gronkowski's arm and back injuries.Tags: Rob Gronkowski, Gronkowski Surgery, Stephania Bell, NFL Live

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will undergo back surgery in mid-to-late June, a source tells ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.
Gronkowski, who is not expected to be ready for the start of training camp in late July, will have the procedure performed by noted spine specialist Dr. Robert Watkins.

It's yet another trip to the operating room for Gronkowski, who recently underwent a fourth surgery on his broken forearm.
As for the back injury, Gronkowski recently underwent an MRI to check on a disk issue from last season, according to ESPN and media reports. The disk injury is not related to the same one that required a procedure in 2009, according to a source.
With Gronkowski sidelined, tight end Jake Ballard has looked sharp in each of the media-accessible OTAs, showing limited signs of restriction nearly 16 months after originally suffering a knee injury. He's shown reliable hands to go along with his big frame (6-foot-6, 275 pounds), and he should make a difference as a blocker when the pads come on.
The burly tight end said that while he's working toward being back to 100 percent, he's staying within the parameters of what the team's medical and coaching staff have laid out for him while he's on the field.
"I'm doing my best I can to be 100 percent, and I'm doing as much as I can, as much as they're allowing me to do out here," Ballard said. "When I'm out here I feel like I'm putting in good work and getting better."

Tebow: 'Honor' to play for Belichick

ESPN.com news services

Terms of Tebow's contract, which was officially signed Tuesday, were not disclosed, but league sources told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter that Tebow signed a two-year deal that includes no guaranteed money.
As he was walking off the practice field, where he wore a red (non-contact) jersey and worked with the team's quarterbacks, Tebow made a short statement to the dozens of reporters waiting for him but did not take any questions.
"First and foremost, I just want to thank the Patriots for giving me an opportunity," he said. "I'm very thankful. It's such an honor to be a Patriot and play for coach [Bill] Belichick and coach [Josh] McDaniels, and learn under Tom [Brady] and be a part of this great franchise and very successful franchise. I found out first hand; lost to them several times.
"It's going to be a lot of fun. I'm looking forward to working hard every single day and getting a lot better and learning under some great people. That's all I got. Thank you all so much and God bless. I'm sure we'll be talking more soon."
Belichick kept his remarks on Tebow brief earlier Tuesday, calling the newly-signed quarterback, who will wear No. 5, "a talented player that is smart and works hard."


Belichick was non-committal on what position Tebow would play -- sources tell ESPN he'll be at quarterback -- and smiled at one point during his news conference at mandatory minicamp when asked if he was concerned about the media crush that surrounds Tebow.
"Hopefully there will be more than at the games on Sunday," Belichick cracked, after saying the media attention had no impact on his decision to sign Tebow.
But the Tebow topic was one that Belichick -- who didn't mention Tebow in his opening remarks -- was clearly not interested in elaborating on, as he repeated simple answers such as "we'll see" multiple times.

By the 14th straight Tebow question, Belichick said: "I think I've covered it. Anything else?"
A teammate of Tebow's for three seasons at the University of Florida, Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez said Tuesday he was surprised to be reunited with his college quarterback in the NFL.
"Once I heard the information I was a little shocked and I was happy," Hernandez said. "Definitely was a surprise for probably most of us."
Tebow participated in Tuesday's practice solely as a quarterback, but Hernandez said he was unsure of Tebow's role going forward.


"There's a reason why he's here. I actually don't now the reason yet but we'll see," Hernandez said. "I'm sure he'll be doing a few things here. That's up to Bill Belichick."
Former NFL quarterback Chris Weinke, who has been working with Tebow over the past month to tweak his throwing mechanics, told USA Today Sports that he believes Tebow can play quarterback in the NFL.
"Like I told Tim when I found out [Monday] that he signed, 'You're locked and loaded, ready to go,'" he told the newspaper.
The move reunites Tebow with Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who was the Broncos' head coach when Denver traded into the first round to draft the Heisman Trophy winner in 2010.
Belichick often has spoken with admiration of Tebow's versatility, intelligence and character. Belichick covets what he has described as tough, smart, versatile football players.
Last month, Yahoo! Sports cited an "organizational source" as saying Belichick disliked Tebow as a player and there was "no chance" of him landing in New England. Belichick dismissed that notion last week, telling ESPNBoston.com that the report was completely untrue.
When asked about his relationship with Tebow, Belichick said, "Yeah, I like Tim. I have a lot of respect for Tim."
Ironically, Tebow's last NFL start came in Denver's blowout playoff loss in Foxborough to Brady and the Patriots following the 2011 season.
Tebow, 25, figures to compete with Ryan Mallett for a backup job behind Brady. The Patriots also released reserve quarterback Mike Kafka on Monday.
Kafka was claimed on waivers by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Tuesday, his agent told ESPN.
One of the NFL's most polarizing players, Tebow was released by the New York Jets in late April following a disappointing season as a backup to Mark Sanchez.

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Tebow's Fit With Pats?[/h]
The Patriots were one of the league's most run-heavy teams in short-yardage situations last year, but didn't always have great success. Could Bill Belichick pull Tom Brady in some of these situations for Tim Tebow in 2013? [h=4]<center>Pats' 2012 rushing ranks,
3 yards or less to go</center>[/h]

<!-- end inline 2 -->"It's not a surprise to me that Tim would be picked up, obviously as I've said before, tremendous young man, very competitive and I look forward to competing against him," Jets coach Rex Ryan said Tuesday.
Asked if he was curious how Belichick planned to use Tebow, Ryan said, "Not really. Nope. If they want to replace Brady with him, that's fine."
The Jets traded a pair of draft picks to Denver in the March 2012 deal to acquire Tebow but failed to establish a consistent role in the offense for the versatile quarterback, who attempted just eight passes, rushed for 102 yards on 32 carries and was used mostly to protect the punter.
Tebow helped the Broncos win the AFC West in 2011 and beat Pittsburgh in a wild-card playoff game before being traded to New York when Denver signed Peyton Manning.
Tebow's NFL career appeared over this offseason when the Jets couldn't trade him at draft time and wound up cutting the left-handed quarterback, who won the 2007 Heisman Trophy at Florida. There even was speculation he couldn't get an offer from any Canadian Football League teams.
Tebow has been criticized for his throwing motion but has said he wants to play quarterback, not switch positions. Still, the Patriots could need help at tight end after Rob Gronkowski underwent a fourth operation for a broken forearm and faces back surgery.
Belichick's love of versatility had him use wide receivers Troy Brown, Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater at defensive back when injuries hit the secondary.
Belichick also has been willing to gamble on players discarded by other teams. Some have succeeded, such as wide receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss and running back Danny Woodhead. Some haven't, including wide receiver Chad Johnson and defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth.
The media circus that surrounded Tebow at Florida, Denver and with the Jets could be minimized by Belichick, who keeps a tight lid on players' interactions with reporters.

Colts add Ahmad Bradshaw

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Indianapolis Colts are trying to improve their running game. Ahmad Bradshaw is just the latest piece of the puzzle.
The Indianapolis Colts agreed to terms with the unrestricted free agent on Tuesday, adding a veteran running back to their crowded backfield. He will join the team Wednesday.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Select Company[/h] Since Ahmad Bradshaw entered the league in 2007, only three players have averaged more yards per carry (900 attempts) than the sixth all-time leading rusher in Giants history. Yards per attempt, between 2007 and '13:


<!-- end inline 1 -->Terms of the contract weren't announced, but a league source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter that the deal pays him a $250,000 signing bonus and $1.1 million in base salary.
The 27-year-old Bradshaw spent seven seasons with the New York Giants, but left the team in February -- one of a handful of high-salaried players released as part of roster purge intended to clear up salary cap room and bring in younger talent. He ran for 1,015 yards on 221 carries (4.6 yards per carry) and scored six touchdowns last season but missed four games with injuries.
Bradshaw's focus is rehabbing from right foot surgery in January. He visited the Colts last week and got an evaluation by the team after battling injuries to his knee and foot for much of last year.
"I'm taking it slow right now," he said. "I'm definitely going to continue my rehab. My focus is just to learn the offense and to get healthy and to be prepared for training camp and the beginning of the season."
Still, Colts coach Chuck Pagano likes what Bradshaw can add to the team -- Super Bowl experience, toughness, and putting up big numbers running the ball.
"Signing a player like Bradshaw, his resume obviously speaks for itself," Pagano said. "We know he's coming off foot surgery, he's trending in the right direction. This guy's just another horseshoe guy, get us one step closer to hoisting that trophy."
As the Colts opened their mandatory minicamp, Bradshaw figures to battle with second-year running back Vick Ballard, who led the team in rushing as a rookie, for a prime role in the backfield and with Donald Brown, now in his fifth year. Delone Carter is also in the mix.
"He brings just a veteran presence," Ballard said of Bradshaw. "He's won two Super Bowls, so obviously he knows how to get it done. He can not only help the team, but he can help the running back group as a whole."
Indy now has nine running backs on the roster, including seventh-round draft pick Kerwynn Williams and fullback Stanley Havili, who was acquired in a March trade with Philadelphia. Williams is listed at 5-foot-8, 195 pounds. But the other five backs have a combined total of six NFL carries, all by Havili last season.
In seven seasons with the Giants, Bradshaw played in 84 of 96 games, starting 33 and rushed for 4,232 yards and 32 touchdowns. He is best known for scoring the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl two years ago on an awkward flop. The play gave the Giants a 21-17 victory over New England.
Other than drafting Williams in the seventh round and trading for Havili, the Colts didn't make any significant moves in the backfield.


Pagano has made a point to make the running game stronger and more balanced and have made moves to get there. Last year, Indy was No. 22 in the league rushing at 104.4 yards a game. Pagano said he's wanted a solid rushing attack from day one. As a rookie last year, Ballard led the team in rushing with 50.9 yards a game and just two touchdowns. Bradshaw knows Ballard has earned a big role with the Colts, but wants a shot at the top spot, too.
"I like having the load on my back," he said. "But Vick, he's proved himself and I don't mind coming in and helping those guys out as much as I can."
Indy spent much of the offseason fortifying its defense and an offensive line that gave up far too many hits on Andrew Luck last season. The Colts signed nine veteran free agents including right tackle Gosder Cherilus and guard Donald Thomas. Those are just additions to an already experienced front lineup that includes tackle Anthony Castonzo who is "perfecting technique" to help the game on the ground.
"Every lineman loves the run game," he said. "If you can get into the game and control the run game and just pass when you have to, that's the best game for the offensive line. Everybody loves the run game."
So what's the identity the Colts would like to instill? Castonzo recalled last year's 19-13 overtime win against the Tennessee Titans where Indy had a more balanced game with 171 yards rushing and 297 passing.
Sure, Indy showed spurts of success running the ball last year, but never found consistency running the ball. This season, it's a must.
"We have to get it going," receiver T.Y. Hilton said. "You can't be one dimensional and just pass because defenses will sit on that. Once we get Vick, Donald and the running game going, we should be excellent."
And now Bradshaw, who will just add to the mix.
"I feel this offense is young and they need a spark and I can be that spark they can use," he said. "With me, I feel that I can touch the ball every down and be effective."

[h=1]Draft Day Manifesto 2013[/h][h=3]A guide to drafting a winning fantasy football team, the TMR way.[/h]By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com


The blood drained from my face.

The feeling came almost immediately, as regret often does.
What had I just done?
It was the last day of April, a few days after the NFL draft, and I was in a room full of people when I blurted it out.
"I'll take Calvin Johnson."
That's what I said. But what I thought was … "Crap."
The occasion was our annual fantasy football rankings summit, an annual tradition we started in 2007 when a bunch of people from all over ESPN -- all of our fantasy analysts and editors, some Stats & Info studs and some folks from ESPN The Magazine, among others -- convene to discuss, argue and analyze every player of interest, to come up with a set of rankings that will serve as the initial, official ESPN rankings.
It was during that session that we held a mock draft for our fantasy football guide, which is on the newsstands now. I had pick No. 7 of this 10-team mock and, with six running backs off the board, I chose Megatron.
And I quickly knew I shouldn't have.
It's not often you can draft Calvin Johnson -- he of the 3,600 yards and 21 touchdowns the past two seasons combined -- and feel bad about it. I mean, I can, I'm neurotic. I can feel bad about anything. It's my special gift. But for most people, you don't feel bad about getting him on your team in the second half of the first round; if anything, you're doing backflips.
But this year is different. This year has wrinkles. Let me explain. No, there is no time. Let me sum up.
Actually, Inigo, let's take the time. This is not something we want to rush. Prepping for the draft is not only important, it's half the fun. You rush a miracle man, you get rotten draft results. Or something like that.
We want to take our time, breathe it in and submerge ourselves in it. Really prep. So sit back, my Internet friend, kick up your heels and bite into a nice MLT -- mutton, lettuce and tomato sandwich, where the mutton is nice and lean and the tomato is ripe -- and get ready for the 15th annual Draft Day Manifesto.
We do it every year, with a mix of new and updated concepts, and this year, we will talk about general team construction. Consistency and probability are going to have starring roles, and it wouldn't kill you to brush up on your "Princess Bride." We'll look at the general state of the various positions, we're going to talk about what you need to do this one time a year to help you win a weekly game, and we'll explain why I sat there, heading into the second round that fateful Tuesday afternoon, angry at myself for drafting Calvin Johnson.
I probably shouldn't admit this. If I had ever bothered to look into my "How To Be a Fantasy Football Analyst" handbook, which is currently propping up my kid's high chair, I'm sure it would say: "DON'T ADMIT TO MAKING A MISTAKE! ESPECIALLY IN YOUR BIGGEST ARTICLE OF THE YEAR! AND DEFINITELY NOT AT THE TOP! IF YOU HAVE TO, DO IT AT THE BOTTOM! THEY'LL JUST SKIM THE SECOND HALF! ALSO, DON'T USE ALL CAPS!"
But I ain't your typical analyst, so I'll tell you right off the bat that I think it was a mistake. First pick, first mock of the year and "whiff." What can I say? Maybe I was a little distracted. I was still knee-deep in baseball at that point and had just handed in the last draft of my book. "A book," you ask? That's right. When I was your age, television was called books. And this is a very special book. It's called "Fantasy Life" and it comes out July 16. I know what you're thinking: "Wait, you're taking time out to hawk a book? In the intro? Really?" And the answer is yes, really. I already told you we have plenty of time here and besides, I just admitted to screwing up the Calvin pick. Why are you so anxious to get to the advice?
This is my first football piece of the year, so I'll apologize in advance for the book pumping that's to come this summer. I will try to keep it somewhat restrained. But I'm very proud of the book. It took over two years to do and it's the best thing I've ever written. If you like my stuff, you'll love this book. If you hate my stuff, you'll tolerate this book. If you love to hate my stuff, think of all the new, never-seen-before stuff to hate, now in convenient to-go form!


I didn't want to write an entire book about "Here's how you win a fantasy league!" That's what articles like this are for (and we're getting there soon, I promise). I wanted to write something fun. Something that celebrated everything I love about fantasy football. Winning is fun, of course, but I also love the trash talk. I love the insane punishments for losing a league. (Would you get a Justin Bieber tattoo if you lost at fantasy? Because I know someone who did, and I've got pictures.) I love the incredible obstacles people have overcome to draft; I love the trophies; I love the special camaraderie you have with the people in your league that only you guys understand. I love stories that start with "You're not gonna believe it, but this one time … ." Team names, weird rules, heartbreaking losses; I love it all, every single nook and cranny of fantasy football. So I wrote a book about all that, threw in some personal stories about me, and it comes out July 16. If you'd like to get some cool exclusive extras for preordering, you can do so at the book web site. Or just click the link to the right in that little box. And if that's not for you, just skip to the next paragraph, which contains the secret of winning at fantasy football. And at life. But mostly at fantasy football.
At its fundamental level, fantasy football is about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win.
Everything leads back to that. Everything. I'm going to repeat it, and this time I'm going to put it in all caps (told you, never read that handbook).
AT ITS FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL, FANTASY FOOTBALL IS ALL ABOUT MINIMIZING RISK AND GIVING YOURSELF THE BEST ODDS TO WIN.
That simple. Say it loud, memorize it, have your kid create a wacky meme about it using Willy Wonka. This preseason, there will be millions of articles, tweets, podcasts, TV shows, magazines, radio segments and Facebook posts all trying to top each other with stats and scouting and sleepers and busts, and some of it will be quite good. And some of it won't. But either way, there will be a lot of it. Tons. And as you sift through it all … In fact, before you make any decision this year about whom to draft, trade, pick up, start, bench or waive, ask yourself these three key questions: How risky is the move, does it give me a better or worse chance to win, and what is most likely to happen?
As my good friend Joe Bryant likes to say: It's an oblong ball made of leather. Weird stuff is going to happen. At this time last year, no one thought a running back less than a year removed from ACL surgery would rush for the second-most yards in NFL history. That Mike Shanahan would stick with one running back the whole season, let alone a sixth-round pick, and that that back would score 13 touchdowns. That Eli Manning would score just four fantasy points more than Sam Bradford. And Bradford didn't have that good a year! That Mikel Leshoure would outscore LeSean McCoy. That the Broncos D/ST would have more fantasy points than Julio Jones, Matt Forte or a healthy Andre Johnson.
I cannot predict the future. Have never claimed to. Neither can you or anyone else. So don't try.
Instead, stack the odds in your favor, put yourself in the best possible position to succeed and hope for the best. That's good advice for life as well, incidentally. As is never to get involved in a land war in Asia or go against a Sicilian when death is on the line. Do nothing but remember those three pieces of advice, and you'll be all right. Of course, that's all well and good, you say, but how do you decide what's most likely to happen? Well, we're gonna spend the rest of this article figuring that out.

[h=3]Eight is the magic number

The first thing you should know is that there is no magic bullet. What we are discussing here is not about your only chance to win, but merely what gives you the best chance. Honestly, there are lots of ways to do this. Last year, you could have drafted a kicker and a defense in the first two rounds, not drafted a running back until the fifth round -- and not even drafted a second running back -- and won your league going away. Nobody would ever do that? Nonsense! You only say that because no one ever has. But what if the kicker was Blair Walsh, the defense was the Bears', if you grabbed Doug Martin in the fifth, picked up Alfred Morris on waivers and gotten players like Robert Griffin III, Randall Cobb, James Jones and Mike Williams late? You also could have won last year if you went QB in the first round like I advocated last preseason. Going wideout/running back would have worked well, too, if it was Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson you snagged. The truth is, you can cherry-pick examples for any "system" to show it works (or that it "doesn't work").
The one thing we can all agree on? It's a weekly game. No duh, right? My droning on about my book is looking better and better, isn't it? I bring this up because in analysis, especially preseason analysis, you often hear about season-long stats and overall numbers and, while that's all well and good, it's not how the game is played. It's a weekly game. I play one other person every week. I just need to beat that team. Period. And if I do that enough times, say seven to 10 times a season, I'm in the playoffs and I have a good shot at the title. Seven to 10 wins in 13 games -- that's a very solid and easily achievable goal.
So I asked the great Mike Polikoff, who oversees our 100 percent free-to-play, fully customizable, mobile-accessible, even-the-live-scoring-is-free league manager product to pull data from last year's standard 10-team leagues. I asked Mike to tell me the average number of wins and average weekly point totals for the four teams making the playoffs in ESPN standard scoring leagues. Here's how it played out this past season, and we've found that, year over year, these type of things tend to be generally the same.
[/h][h=3]Average wins and points[/h][h=3]Average record and scoring for teams in ESPN standard leagues by post-Week 13 standing.


First, let's look at the wins. On average, you needed eight wins to get into the playoffs. Not shown in this chart, incidentally, is that every team that won at least 10 games made the playoffs. There were some nine- and eight-win teams that didn't make the cut -- it's an average, after all -- but if you won 10 of your first 13 games in a standard league last year, you were in the playoffs.
Ten wins, however, is a lot. Let's stick with eight. Eight wins got you in 95 percent of the time. The other thing you'll notice is point totals. The totals from the four playoff teams average out to 94 points per week. Again, we're speaking in generalities, but average 94 points in the first 13 weeks this upcoming season and there's a pretty good chance you're going to win at least eight times. Enough to make it likely -- not guaranteed, but likely -- that you're in the playoffs.
So that's our goal. 94 points. That, and to find the six-fingered man. But that'll take an entirely different plan, so let's stick to 94 points.
Now keep in mind, you start nine players in an ESPN standard league lineup: a quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, a tight end, a flex, a defense and a kicker. So now we can break it down even further. We can get to 94 points a lot of ways. You get 51 points from Doug Martin one week, the rest of your team doesn't need to do a lot of heavy lifting. But we're looking for the most likely way to get to 94 points. So just to throw out one scenario, let's break it down like this in ESPN standard scoring. Here's one way to get 94 points in, say, Week 1.
QB: 17 pts | RB1: 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
How did you get to those point targets by position?? I must know. Get used to disappointment. But really, there's no big secret to it. Could you get 20 points from your quarterback and only need 10 points from your RB1? Of course. But I chose these benchmarks because I thought they were reasonable and mostly balanced. You don't want to have to count on any one player to carry you every week. So to figure out what a balanced team could look like, I turned to the great Tristan H. Cockcroft's Year-End Consistency Rankings, a terrific read I highly recommend. Tristan has a metric he uses called "stud," which keeps track of how often a running back or wide receiver was top-five at his position, or a quarterback top-two at his. Adrian Peterson topped the list at eight games, Marshawn Lynch had six, no other player had more than five. Using a different example, even the highest-scoring player in fantasy last year, Drew Brees, had only 11 games in which he was top-10 at his position. All that serves to show what those who have played fantasy for a while already know: It's highly unlikely you'll find a player who can single-handedly carry you week after week. So we want depth and balance, so that every week at least a few of our guys will go off.
You can play with these numbers all day long -- looking for more from your quarterback and less from your flex, for example, but just for giggles, let's say that those are our targets. Which brings me back to that draft in April, when I went with Calvin Johnson in the first round. The problem wasn't that I drafted Calvin per se, it's just that I hated what I was staring at in the second round as my first running back. I ended up with Steven Jackson. Now, I love Steven Jackson this year and think he's gonna have a monster season in Atlanta. But I want him as my No. 2 running back, not my No. 1. Let me explain why.
[/h][h=3]The return of the running back/Running back[/h][h=3]Since we're dealing in what's most likely to happen and we're aiming for, at a minimum, eight wins, I took a look at how many running backs had at least 10 points (ESPN standard scoring) in eight different games last season. Here's what the Consistency Rankings revealed: Arian Foster, 14; Adrian Peterson, 13; Doug Martin, 12; C.J. Spiller, 12; Alfred Morris, 12; Marshawn Lynch, 11; Ray Rice, 11; Frank Gore, 11; Trent Richardson, 11; LeSean McCoy, 10; Stevan Ridley, 9; Matt Forte, 9; Jamaal Charles, 9; Darren Sproles, 9; Chris Johnson, 9; Michael Turner, 8.
Sixteen running backs. That's it. Sixteen running backs were good enough to be a No. 1 or No. 2 running back at least half the season. And many of them (cough, Michael Turner, cough) were touchdown-dependent. Now, were there running backs who, once they got an opportunity, were consistent like that? Sure. Knowshon Moreno had five games of 10-plus points. Same as Vick Ballard. And we'll get to those kind of guys in a while as well.
But, not surprisingly, there is a shortage of running backs that consistently score in double digits. If you look at our projections this season (or, frankly, anyone else's) it is a similarly sized list. When there is a shortage of something, class, there will be a run on them and you need to get them early.
Because here's the other thing: Touchdowns are insanely unpredictable. LeSean McCoy went from 20 in 2011 to five last year. Calvin Johnson went from 16 to five. Adrian Peterson, despite 162 more touches and averaging 1.3 yards per carry more, had the exact same number of touchdowns: 12. The amazing Jason Vida of ESPN Stats & Information offers up this nugget on the repeatability of touchdowns year to year:
"Double-digit touchdowns one year is no guarantee of 10 or more scores the next. Over the 10-season span from 2002-11, a player had at least 10 rushing/receiving TDs in a season 200 times. Nearly two-thirds of them failed to score 10 rushing/receiving TDs the following season (132 of 199 – not including Corey Dillon, who didn't play the year after he scored 13 TD in 2006).
"On average, those players saw their TDs drop by 36 percent the season after reaching the end zone 10 times, from an average of 12.9 TDs to 8.2 TDs."
[/h][h=3]Players with 10 rush/rec TD in season, 2002-11[/h][h=3]

So this tells me two things: First, that of all the non-quarterback positions, running backs who get a lot of touchdowns are the most likely to get as many the following year. And second, if we are looking for consistency, it's going to be in the yardage. More from Vida:
"It's much easier to repeat a season with 1,300 scrimmage yards than a season with 10 TDs. From 2002-11, a player had at least 1,300 yards from scrimmage 219 times. Just over half of them failed to reach 1,300 scrimmage yards the following season. (112/215 – not including Tiki Barber, Ricky Williams, James Stewart and Domanick Williams, who all did not play following a season with 1,300 scrimmage yards)."
"On average, those players saw their yards from scrimmage drop by 21 percent the following season, from an average of 1,585 yards to 1,255 yards."
[/h][h=3]Players with 1,300 scrimmage yards in season, 2002-11[/h][h=3]>> Only 2 TEs had 1,300 scrimmage yards (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham in 2011)

Say it again, it's that important. "Yardage is more repeatable for running backs than for wideouts," (or tight ends) and it stands to reason; who gets yardage? The guy touching the ball. And who consistently touches the ball the most during a game? A running back, of course. Now, there are a lot of teams with uncertain running back situations, with time shares, with a "goal-line specialist," with, frankly, situations that are a pain in the butt for fantasy owners.
Yes, there are lots of running backs going in the later rounds that I like. Could David Wilson and Lamar Miller step up to be fantasy studs now that Ahmad Bradshaw and Reggie Bush are gone? Can Bradshaw and Bush stay healthy and find success with their new teams? What about the rookies? Can Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy or Zac Stacy win starting jobs outright and be rookie studs in the Doug Martin mold? Sure. Very possible. Likely, even, in some cases. But none of them are sure things. There are question marks galore all over the running back landscape.
Question marks in terms of role and who is definitely getting the majority of carries (Arizona, St. Louis, Giants, Jets, Miami, Pittsburgh, Denver and potentially Green Bay and Cincy), plus the situations in which there is a significant injury history for the player we expect to be the main guy: Rashard Mendenhall in Arizona, DeMarco Murray in Dallas, Darren McFadden in Oakland, Ryan Mathews in San Diego, Bradshaw in Indy, Chris Ivory with the Jets. Add to those the places where there are time shares -- thus limiting the fantasy upside of any of the running backs -- like New Orleans, Detroit and Carolina, plus potentially the already mentioned St. Louis, Jets, Giants, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Miami, Cincy and Indy. All in all, those are 18 situations with some sort of question mark. And that's before we discuss the possibility of Frank Gore's touches declining even more this year, or what if Shonn Greene cuts into Chris Johnson's carries in Tennessee, or what if Bernard Pierce steals more work from Ray Rice than we expect? Plus, if you felt a little nervous about Trent Richardson's knees, Maurice Jones-Drew's ability to come back from injury and/or overcome Jacksonville's Jacksonvilleness, or are acutely aware that Steven Jackson celebrates his 30th birthday this July, it'd be hard to blame you.
I'll say that if MJD is healthy in training camp I'll be moving him up, I'm not worried about Greene and feel Johnson has a bounce-back year with the new offensive line and no more Chris Palmer calling plays; that it's June, so I can't speak to T-Rich's knees, but despite his failings as a head coach, Norv Turner is a great offensive coordinator who will make full use of Richardson; and I feel the Pierce concerns are overblown. Rice will still get his. I don't have those questions, but I get it if you do. The point is, there are really only about 14 or so running back situations you can feel good about. Those guys will be gone in the first two rounds. Ideally, you want to go running back-running back and get two of them on your team. I mean it. Anyone want a peanut?
[/h][h=3]A wide range of wide receivers[/h][h=3]You see, it's not just about the scarcity at running back, it's also the abundance of talent at the other positions. Let's move on to wide receiver. It's not significantly deeper, but it is deeper, especially since our thresholds are lower. My take on wide receiver this year is that there is a small tier of super elite guys (Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant) and then a ton of guys who are very good and could be elite if everything falls right.
Look at this list of guys with at least 10 points in at least five games last year (or just under a third of the season), again courtesy of Tristan Cockcroft.


Calvin Johnson, 11; Brandon Marshall, 10; A.J. Green, 10; Demaryius Thomas, 10; Dez Bryant, 9; Cecil Shorts, 9; Julio Jones, 9; James Jones, 9; Randall Cobb, 8; Eric Decker, 8; Vincent Jackson, 8; Wes Welker, 8 ; Roddy White, 8; Victor Cruz, 8; Mike Williams, 8; Miles Austin, 8; Steve Smith, 8; Reggie Wayne, 7; Lance Moore, 7; Andre Johnson, 7; Steve Johnson, 7; T.Y. Hilton, 7; Michael Crabtree, 6; Marques Colston, 6; Malcom Floyd, 6; Torrey Smith, 6; Percy Harvin, 6; Mike Wallace, 5; Larry Fitzgerald, 5; Golden Tate, 5; Brandon LaFell, 5; Danario Alexander, 5; Jeremy Maclin, 5; Jordy Nelson, 5; Sidney Rice, 5; Brandon Lloyd, 5.
What we're really looking for is eight double-digit games, but let's be honest: Touchdowns are so fluky, especially for wide receivers, that eight may be asking for too much. As I already mentioned, Calvin Johnson, the best receiver in the game, had 47 more targets and 26 more receptions in 2012 than 2011 yet had 11 fewer touchdowns. In fact, here are Calvin's touchdown totals since coming into the league: 4, 12, 5, 12, 16, 5. And that's the guy who led the NFL in targets! I could do it all day, but hopefully common sense, or remembering the Jason Vida stat from above (over the past decade, 76 percent of wide receivers who had 10 or more touchdowns failed to get double digits the following season), or just basic trust that I've done the research, will lead you to this conclusion: Touchdowns, especially receiving touchdowns, are inconsistent year to year.
Would I be shocked if James Jones has 10 or more scores this year? No. I also wouldn't be surprised if Jordy Nelson stays healthy all year and gets back to double digits, Randall Cobb (whom I love) has a huge year, if Jermichael Finley does a little better, the Packers are more effective running the ball with Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin, and just like that, Jones finishes with five or six scores instead of 10.
Let's loosen the parameters a little bit. Last season, 22 different wideouts who played in at least 12 games averaged nine points or more, 23 if you include Percy Harvin, who played in only nine. (Averaging nine points a game is different from scoring at least nine in eight games or whatever, but the point is the same.) Many of the guys on that list have the talent, quarterback and scheme to be a top-10 wide receiver. Just depends on those fluky touchdowns.
So let's look forward. I've mentioned the elite tier, and then a ton of guys who could be very good. Let's give them names. Is there anyone on this list of guys that I didn't list as elite who, assuming health for all 16 games, you'd be shocked to find in the top 10 at the end of the season?
Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Danny Amendola, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, Cecil Shorts, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Danario Alexander, T.Y. Hilton and Tavon Austin.
Now, I like some of those guys more than others and some are bigger stretches than others, but the point remains: All of these guys -- except the lone rookie, Austin -- have performed at a high level in the NFL before and all have some combo of talent/quarterback/situation/offensive scheme that, if touchdowns landed the right way, could easily be top-10 wideouts. None of these guys would cause you to be like "Whoa! Where'd that come from??" It's 30 different guys after the top four. Thirty guys, before even getting to the random guys we know will emerge this year, like Danario Alexander or Cecil Shorts did last season.
Thirty-four (30+4) guys is a lot when you're only trying to find two who will combine to get you 20 or so points a week. Picking which guys to start is a whole 'nother matter, but for now, I just want to underline the point that the position is both very deep and a bit random after the top four. Ranking them is all about personal preference for much of the top 20.
[/h][h=3]Quarterbacks? Keep the change[/h][h=3]Let's move quickly now to quarterback. Last year in this space I advocated going early on quarterback because it was by far the most consistent position, getting an elite one gave you an advantage at the most consistent position, and because productive running backs and wide receivers came into the league with much more frequency (via injury, etc.). And certainly, with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady being the top three fantasy scorers last year, you weren't hurt if you went QB early, especially if you got Peterson or Lynch in the second round or managed to snag a later-round runner like Martin, Spiller, Morris or Stevan Ridley. But like I said, you can cherry-pick examples of any system working or not working, so let's move things forward instead of looking back. The big difference between last year and this year? More stud quarterbacks. Many more.
This season, we no longer have to wonder if Peyton Manning can successfully come back from neck surgery, if Cam Newton was a fluke, or if young running quarterbacks like Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick can play in the NFL. Add a very successful rookie campaign for Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan taking another step forward and you've got unbelievable depth at the position, and that's before you even get to Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger, all of whom averaged 16 fantasy points per game last year. In fact, 10 different quarterbacks averaged 17 or so fantasy points per game last year. Two more averaged around 16 and No. 13, Andy Dalton, averaged 14.9. Seven others averaged 14 points a game. The quarterback position is the deepest I've ever seen it for fantasy purposes. In a league in which only 10 guys are needed to start each week, there's simply no reason to be the first one to grab a quarterback if doing so means bypassing one of those 16 running backs.
[/h][h=3]Playing fast and loose with tight ends[/h][h=3]Let's turn once again to Tristan Cockcroft's Consistency Rankings. Now the idea of his consistency rankings is, well, consistency. Again, we play the game over the course of a year but truthfully, it's actually 13 weekly games and then the playoffs. So how many of those weeks was a particular player worth starting? Under Tristan's system, a tight end was considered a "start" if his point total made him top 10 at his position. And the third-most consistent tight end last year was the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph, who finished the year as the ninth-highest-scoring tight end.


Now, Tristan also gives out a "stiff" rating, defined as the number of weeks a player's point total ranked among the worst at his position. In other words, since his article is about week-to-week consistency, what top-10 tight end had the most weeks in which he was brutal, the most weeks in which you would have been better starting pretty much anyone else off the waiver wire? Kyle Rudolph, with seven such games. In fact, Rudolph had four different games with zero, count 'em, zero fantasy points. Might as well have left him on your bench and started me instead.
Think about that. The third-most consistent tight end last year was also a guy who was among the worst at his position in half the weeks. It's inconceivable! And while I'm not sure that word means what I think it means, and I also think this was a bit of a stretch to fit in this particular reference, it does illustrate my take on tight end this year; Jimmy Graham is a stud. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are studs but obviously have health concerns (and in Hernandez's case, some off-the-field issues). Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten are very solid, if unspectacular. And after that, they're all the same. Oh, there are guys I like more than others -- I'm a big Dennis Pitta believer this year -- but really, after those five, it's just a bunch of Kyle Rudolphs. They'll be great some weeks, disappear in others, and it's really a weekly guessing/hoping game that they find the end zone that week.
The top 10 tight ends last year collectively averaged 7.9 points per game. That's why I'm trying to count on only seven points out of that position; basically 70 yards or 10 yards and a touchdown. Eight tight ends averaged 6.7 points per game or more, and 14 different tight ends last year averaged at least 5.9 points per game, or basically within one point of our target. When you draft, as you keep track of your target points (we'll get into how to do that in a little bit) you can adjust that number up a bit to more than seven per game (if you go TE early) or a little less, say five to six points a game, if you wait. But aiming for seven points is reasonable to start, until you see what you get. Just remember this: I either want to be one of the first guys to get a tight end in my league, or the very last.
[/h][h=3]Kickers can win games, but they don't win fantasy titles[/h][h=3]OK, let's get kickers out of the way. You're waiting to draft one in the very last round. Last year, the average draft position of the first kicker taken was Stephen Gostkowski, at pick 102.5. The 11th round. Among some of the other players who were being drafted in the 11th round or so, that people were bypassing for Gostkowski? Alfred Morris, Michael Crabtree and Danny Amendola. It's not that Gostkowski was bad. He had another great year, finishing second at his position with 160 points. Or 25 points better than the No. 10 kicker, Dan Bailey. Less than two points a week. Once more, per Tristan's consistency rankings, the No. 1 fantasy kicker last year, Blair Walsh, was top 10 at his position in eight different weeks. Eight. It's been proven every year. There is no significant statistical difference between the top 10 kickers, and that's if you could accurately predict who the top 10 kickers would be. You're not bypassing a lottery ticket like Morris or Crabtree this year for a kicker. Wait until the last round.
Now, what is that kicker worth? The top-scoring kickers averaged 117.5 fantasy points for the first 13 weeks last season, or just under nine points a game. But that assumes you are starting one of the 10 best kickers, which, according to our start percentage metric, you were not. The league average is about eight fantasy points per game per kicker, and that sounds closer to correct for me. Two field goals, two extra points … let's call it eight from whatever kicker you remember to start, and anything beyond that is gravy. Mmm, gravy.
[/h][h=3]Don't get defensive[/h][h=3]Check out this list of the 18 defense/special teams that scored at least eight points in just under half their games last season:
Bears D/ST, 12; Broncos D/ST, 12; Patriots D/ST, 10; Texans D/ST, 9; Bengals D/ST, 9; Chargers D/ST, 9; 49ers D/ST, 9; Seahawks D/ST, 8; Packers D/ST, 8; Steelers D/ST, 8; Jets D/ST, 8; Falcons D/ST, 8; Vikings D/ST, 8; Cardinals D/ST, 7; Ravens D/ST, 7; Rams D/ST, 7; Bills D/ST, 7; Redskins D/ST, 7.
Thirteen, count 'em, 13 different D/ST's scored at least eight points in eight weeks. Eighteen defenses scored that many in at least seven weeks. Now check this out -- here's a list of how many weeks a team scored 10 or more points:
Bears D/ST, 9; Broncos D/ST, 8; Bengals D/ST, 8; Seahawks D/ST, 8; Texans D/ST, 8; 49ers D/ST, 8; Patriots D/ST, 7; Chargers D/ST, 7; Vikings D/ST, 7; Rams D/ST, 7


Ten different defenses had at least seven games of double-digit scoring. And for those who like to play the matchup or "streaming" defense way, it's worth noting that if you just started the defense facing the Cardinals every week last year, you would have had the highest-scoring fantasy defense in football, at 14.2 points a game, just better than the Bears at 13.3. And if you had started the defense always facing the Jets or Chiefs, you'd have had a better D/ST than any other team except the Bears. Which is another reason why I and others advocate waiting to draft a defense.
Last year, the top 10 scoring defenses all averaged eight points or more a game. I could have set the number we want for defense at 10, but I went a little low purposefully. Defensive touchdowns are so fluky, you hate to count on them. Point in fact -- the Chargers scored nine touchdowns this past year after scoring three the year before. The Lions scored zero D/ST touchdowns this past year after scoring seven the year before. Take away all the touchdowns from Chicago and Arizona last year and the Bears are only 2.5 points per game better than Arizona over a 17-game season. You can't count on a defensive score, certainly not going into any given week, so we'll call it eight points a game, and be happy on the weeks when we go over.
[/h][h=3]Let's put it all back together[/h][h=3]Let's look at our handy little scoring goals chart one more time.
QB: 17 pts | RB1: 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
By now, it should be clear how we -- and by we, I really mean me and the imaginary hand puppet I talk to, Fantasy Franco -- came up with those point totals. It's basically the average points per position based on availability of certain positions. Average. As in … what's most likely to happen. You can play with it, of course, but setting too high an expectation on any one position does two things: It puts a lot of pressure on that one player, and it supposes that either what happened last year will happen this year, always a dangerous assumption, or that you can truly tell the future, which is inconceivable. And this time, I do think it means what I think it does.
Could we set our grid at 20 points a week for quarterback and shave some points off our running back targets? Sure. Twenty points is what Rodgers, Brady and Brees averaged last year. But now you've taken all potential profit out of the position; they have to average at the highest end of their position just to "stay the course" for you. The reason to do that, you might argue, is that it allows you to go cheaper on running back and need only one who averages better than 10 points a game. The problem is that 10 points a game is an average. There will be some weeks when your boy will come in much lower, and if it doesn't coincide with your quarterback going off, you're probably going to lose that week.
There should never be any hard and fast rules in a draft -- you always have to adjust to what's going on around you -- but in every mock since that first one, I've done two things and been very happy every time with my team in 10-team standard leagues:
1. I've gone running back/running back in the first two rounds.
2. I have not drafted a QB in the first three rounds.
Let's sum it up. Go running back early and often, wait on quarterback. There are four elite wide receivers and then a sameness, so don't reach. Be either one of the first guys or the last guy in your league to draft a tight end. Defenses and kickers are for the end game.
[/h][h=3]And now, a word about tiers[/h][h=3]Actually, more than one word. Here's a fairly simple exercise that will help you understand the depth at all the positions and see what I mean about roster construction.
Take the season projections from a source you like and trust. Obviously, I'm a company man, but there are a lot of people who do good work in this arena, and I swear, this will work with any set of well-thought-out projections. Once you've got them, see what their weekly fantasy point average is projected to be for each player.
Remember, we're aiming for 94 points. And if we get higher than that … even better. But we need to leave the draft with a team that will average about 94 points a week. That 94 points is our GOAL. Or, for you "futbol" fans, your "gooooooooooooooooooooooooal!

Let's start with running backs. I'm using the ESPN ones listed here, which are based on ESPN standard scoring. Here are their projected weekly point totals for 2013: Adrian Peterson, 16.4; Arian Foster, 15.3; Marshawn Lynch, 13.7; Ray Rice, 13.6; Doug Martin, 13.3; Jamaal Charles, 13.4; C.J. Spiller, 13.3; Trent Richardson, 13.3; Alfred Morris, 12.9; LeSean McCoy, 11.8; Steven Jackson, 11.3; Matt Forte, 10.7; Stevan Ridley, 10.6; Frank Gore, 10.4; Chris Johnson, 10.1; Maurice Jones-Drew, 10.1; David Wilson, 9.6; Darren McFadden, 9.9; Montee Ball, 9.5; Darren Sproles, 9; DeMarco Murray, 8.9; Reggie Bush, 9.1.
So there you have it. Twenty-two running backs who get within 10 points or so. Ten running backs who get within 14 points or so (I think there's upside in Morris' and McCoy's projections, but that's just nit-picking). Now let's go back to our target list:
QB: 17 pts | RB1: 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
I want you to have this handy during your draft. And I also want you to have a points-per-game average on whatever rankings/cheat sheet you use. You can also tweak the projected points, obviously, to whatever you feel is a legitimate target.
So let's say you get pick No. 6, running backs are taken in the first five and you go ahead and pull the trigger on C.J. Spiller at six. You look at our handy sheet and see ESPN projects him for 13 points a game. So we go to our sheet and write it in:
QB: 17 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
Now in Round 2, you decided to go running back again and Stevan Ridley is there. You grab him and now we have this (we're going to round our numbers to keep things simple, which you want to do in a draft):
QB: 17 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: Ridley 11 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 95
Now Round 3 comes around and you look at the expected weekly point average of wide receivers. Here's a partial list:
Calvin Johnson, 13.8; A.J. Green, 11.8; Dez Bryant, 11.9; Brandon Marshall, 11.5; Julio Jones, 10.9; Demaryius Thomas, 10.5; Percy Harvin, 10.4; Roddy White, 10.4; Vincent Jackson, 10.3; Andre Johnson, 10.4; Randall Cobb, 10.1; Larry Fitzgerald, 9.8; Wes Welker, 9.1; Victor Cruz, 8.9; Marques Colston, 8.8; Reggie Wayne, 8.8; Jordy Nelson, 9.1; Mike Wallace, 9.1.
So you check this list and because most people went running back early, Roddy White is hanging around, so you grab him and once again, write him in:
QB: 17 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: Ridley 11 | WR1: White 10| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
Right now, we're right on target, but even if we were off by a point or two, at this juncture, it wouldn't matter too much. In Round 4, you've been planning on going with another wide receiver but Cam Newton keeps falling. You look at two things:
One, the entire list of wide receivers, and see that there are still 15 or so left who will be in the neighborhood of 10 points a game. And there are 10 more after that who are in the eight-point range and some of them, like Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts and Antonio Brown, you think are going to have big years (preview of some guys who will make the "Love" list this year), so your list is even deeper than ESPN's. Second, the expected weekly point average of quarterbacks. Here's another partial list:
Aaron Rodgers, 20.7; Drew Brees, 19.6; Tom Brady, 19.8; Peyton Manning, 19.1; Cam Newton, 19.0; Matt Ryan, 18.5; Colin Kaepernick, 18; Russell Wilson, 17.3; Robert Griffin III, 15.8; Matthew Stafford, 17; Andrew Luck, 16.5; Tony Romo, 16.7; Eli Manning, 13.7; Ben Roethlisberger, 13; Joe Flacco, 12.7.
So you go ahead and roster Cam Newton. Now we look at our targets once again:
QB: NEWTON 19 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: Ridley 11 | WR1: White 10| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 96
Now, we have a couple of points to play with if we want, but truthfully, we're not really concerned about 96 or 93 points or anything like that. The difference could just as well be in the rounding. What you've been doing is following a roadmap, a quick way to see abundance and scarcity, to be able, at a glance, to make sure you are constructing a balanced team while also allowing you to adjust on the fly.
You want an example? As you wish. Let's say you once again went Spiller in the first, but in the second you're considering taking Jimmy Graham, so you don't have to deal with weekly TE roulette. Now you look at your little list and see that you've slotted seven points a week from the tight end spot:
QB: 17 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: 7 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
Now, you look at our projected weekly averages for tight end:
Jimmy Graham, 10.2; Rob Gronkowski, 10.2; Aaron Hernandez, 7.9; Tony Gonzalez, 7.8; Jason Witten, 7.2; Vernon Davis, 6.7; Dennis Pitta, 6.7; Kyle Rudolph, 5.8; Owen Daniels, 5.8; Greg Olsen, 6; Antonio Gates, 5.8; Brandon Myers, 5.8; Jared Cook, 5.5; Martellus Bennett, 5.5.
So you draft Graham and now you have 10 points at your tight end spot rather than seven (frankly, I'd put Graham at 12 points a week, if not higher, but we're going with these numbers). Now your sheet looks like this:
QB: 17 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 11| WR2: 10
Flex: 10 | TE: GRAHAM 10 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 97
You can now adjust (if you want) one of the positions down three points. For example, you can take out a point at WR1 and two from Flex:
QB: 17 pts | RB1: Spiller 13 | RB2: 10 | WR1: 10| WR2: 10
Flex: 8 | TE: Graham 10 | D/ST: 8 | K: 8 | total = 94
Having adjusted my targets beforehand, I can now continue to realistically look at the player pool and see where and when I should strike, position by position. After all, it was going to be a stretch to find a wide receiver with 11 points and still get a No. 2 running back who could score me 10, and because I'm now not going to be one of the last to get a tight end, I'll be picking from a pool of flex players a round later than I would have had I not taken a tight end. By adjusting my flex player to eight points, I have a more realistic idea of whom I need to roster, and I won't panic when the potential flex players start to dwindle. Knowing what my goal is now -- eight points -- expands my list of potential targets and will help keep me from reaching if, for example, I'd rather take a running back handcuff than my flex at a certain juncture. How will you keep track? It's all fairly simple math and should be easy to do on the fly, but you'll want to make sure you get used to it and practice this a few times with mock drafts, etc. Nothing is worse than losing track of a draft because you're busy doing paperwork.
[/h][h=3]So, about the word "often" …[/h][h=3]I said earlier that you need to go running back early and often. Why? I mean, isn't the whole point of going running back in the first and mostly second round so we don't have to worry about running back?
Well, yes, but running backs get hurt, (he said, shocking no one). And players can sometimes underperform. And the more you have of a scarce commodity, the more options you have when it comes to trades or lineup construction. That 10 (or 8) points from the flex position is going to be the hardest to come up with on a weekly basis, especially during bye weeks.
In fantasy baseball, one of my big slogans for years in mixed leagues has been "Don't pay for saves." The reason is that there is a lot of turnover at that position, for a variety of reasons, and saves always come into fantasy leagues via the waiver wire or by sleepers panning out.
I feel the same way about running backs. Go back to the part in this article where I talked about the various situations at running back. As I write this in mid-June, we don't know who will be the guy in Green Bay or Pittsburgh, or if Lamar Miller and David Wilson can seize opportunities, or whether McFadden can finally stay healthy, or the answer to a million other questions. We don't know that now, but eventually we will.
We don't know who'll be this year's Alfred Morris, C.J. Spiller, Doug Martin or Stevan Ridley. We don't know who'll be this year's Knowshon Moreno, Marcel Reece, Vick Ballard or Bryce Brown. The guys who will be crucial to us for a few weeks in the middle of a season to help get through injuries and bye weeks. There will be guys like that. There always are. I could use a huge chart showing that, over the past four years, over 40 percent of the running backs who finished the year inside the top 20 were not drafted as such, but frankly, at this point, I expect you'll just take my word for it. I think we've had enough charts for today. I can assure you, top-20 running back production comes into the league more than any other position. Plus, if you've played a few years, you already know it's true; there are always guys you grab on waivers who become fantasy stars, be it for an entire season like Morris, or for just a few weeks like the Browns (Andre and Bryce).
I call them lottery tickets. And I want as many of them as possible.
So here's how I want to construct my roster in a 10-team, or even a 12-team league.
• I want one quarterback. Maybe you grab a backup if you wind up with a risk like RG III, but otherwise, I'll play the waiver wire if something happens to my stud and address it during his bye week.
• I want one tight end. Maybe you grab a backup if you end up with Gronkowski or Hernandez, who are risks, but otherwise they are all the same at a certain point, and you'll drive yourself nuts trying to decide which one to start on a weekly basis. Pick one guy and just roll with the ups and downs.
• I want one kicker and one defense, and those will be whatever I can get with my final two picks.
The rest of my roster is all running backs and wide receivers. And when in doubt, go running back. In an ESPN standard league, with 16 roster spots (nine starters, seven bench) I ideally want seven running backs and five wideouts. If I have super-strong running backs and I don't love my wideouts, maybe I'll go six and six to try to catch lightning in a bottle at wide receiver, but you have a better shot of finding a productive wideout on the waiver wire in Week 3 than finding a running back.
Running backs are scarce. They are to be collected, petted and called "my precious" in a creepy voice. Yeah, that's right: They're so scarce I had to go off-theme to find the appropriate movie reference.
[/h][h=3]Fifteen rules of drafting, 2013 edition[/h][h=3]OK, it's game day, baby. Time for the big show. Don't bother cramming on the way in or anything stupid like that. It's like a test. You know it or you don't. It's like dropping off your date at the end of the night. If you don't know what you're doing now, the next 10 minutes aren't going to help. You want to project -- even if you don't feel it -- an air of confidence. Make others sweat. That's my first draft day hint. You've read some of these before, but I added a bunch of new ones, just to make things interesting.
1. Never show fear. Just be confident. You don't have to be cocky or a jerk, but occasionally sighing a breath of relief when the guy before you picks -- as if to say "Fortunately, you didn't grab the correct guy" -- will do wonders to rattle your less-confident league mates. If you really want to rattle them, however, you might want to try the ol' "Hello, my name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die." Note that this is particularly effective if your name is, in fact, Inigo Montoya.
2. Have a plan. Ideally, you'll know which pick you have before the draft, so run through scenarios: What guy are you likely to get, what guy would you hope falls to you, and what happens if you have pick No. 9 and there are only eight guys you really like in the first round, and they all go before you pick? I've given you the tools to formulate a plan, but drawing that plan and then following it, adapting as the draft unfolds, that's all on you, and the better prepared you are for each situation, the better you'll do.

3. Practice makes perfect. Yeah, I'm a company man but the fact remains: The more you do something, the better you get at it. My career notwithstanding. We have free mock draft and mock auction lobbies open 24/7. Jump in and practice drafting. And try picking from different spots. Try different things. See what happens if you don't go running back/running back. If you get Graham in the second. If you draft Calvin or Rodgers in the first. The more scenarios you face, the less fazed you'll be when something screwy happens in your real draft.
4. If you find yourself getting squeezed out of a position, don't panic. Say you wait too long on quarterbacks in a 14-teamer. Instead of reaching for someone like Sam Bradford, grab yet another running back. Or the last decent tight end. Give yourself something to trade with. Bradford, or someone just like him, will still be there a round later, trust me. But by getting a surplus somewhere else rather than just grabbing the best available at a depleted position, you'll be in a position to help yourself later.
5. If you are at one end of a snake draft, grab what you need when you can. Let's say it's your pick and you really want a good wide receiver. You see there are at least eight guys left you could live with since they have the expected weekly point average you need, so you figure you can wait a little longer and proceed to grab your third and fourth running backs to start your stockpile. But one good run and you're screwed. It's 18 picks until you get to choose again (in a 10-team league). Don't wait. Grab what you need first, get surplus later (unless you're in a situation like I described above in No. 4).
6. Don't sweat bye weeks. So much can happen during a season in terms of injuries, role changes and what a good or poor matchup is, you're not gonna know what you want to do in a given week until you're setting your lineup that week. So get the best player, period. There's even an argument to be made for trying to have every player have the same bye week. Yes, you take it on the chin one week, but you're at full strength every other week and all your opponents are not. Ken Daube calls this "bye week stacking," and if it has a kicky name, it has to work, right?
7. By that same token, I never worry about things like whether a player is on the same team as another guy I've already rostered. You're trying to get the best possible team, period. If the next-best guy available is the wide receiver for your quarterback, so be it. Don't get cute or overthink it.
8. I also never really worry about playoff schedules or schedules in general. We just don't know how defenses will perform. I remember getting questions at this time last year about avoiding the Jets and the Eagles in the playoffs. By the time those weeks came about, you prayed you were facing those teams. Same thing happened with the Ravens in the middle of the season last year; with all their injuries, they weren't making you second-guess starting your running backs against them. Draft the best team possible.
9. Please realize that all rankings -- including mine -- are guidelines and not hard and fast. They are not designed to be followed dogmatically. I'll often get a question like, "I have the second pick and I really want LeSean McCoy. Is that too early?" While yes, I have McCoy toward the end of the first, the answer is … it's your team. McCoy will not be there when you pick in the second round, so if you believe Chip Kelly is going to bring him back to his 2011 glory days, grab him there and don't listen to what anyone else says. Of course, this is yet another reason auctions are better.


10. I like to look at average draft positions so I have a general idea of where guys I am targeting are going. I don't necessarily recommend reaching, but in the later rounds, when you're looking for upside, if there's someone who makes your heart go pitter-pat, knowing where he normally gets drafted can only help.
11. Regarding those last two points, understand that the default ranks on whatever website you play on greatly influence the average draft positions. I would love it if everyone played on ESPN, but I am aware that there are other places to play. So say ESPN ranks Wes Welker 38th overall, as we currently have him. His average draft position is going to be somewhere in the mid- to late-fourth round. Now, on another site that offers fantasy football, Welker's rank is 56. So on that site, he'll go somewhere in the sixth round in most drafts. Just understand that as you take our content and apply it elsewhere.
12. My take on Rob Gronkowski is that he's worth the risk in the fourth or fifth round. I have Jimmy Graham as my No. 1 tight end; Gronk is still No. 2, but much lower in the overall ranks. We just don't know what we're dealing with in terms of Gronk and it's not like the Patriots are gonna be real forthcoming with anything. His upside is so great and there's such depth at other positions that if I had two good runners and one good wideout, I'd probably take a chance on him in the fourth, depending on how the rest of the draft is going. Even eight or 10 games out of Gronk, plus a replacement-level guy for six games or whatever, is gonna give me a better shot at eight wins -- not to mention a possible major advantage in the playoffs -- than just about anyone else out there.
13. My only thought on kickers, besides using your last pick to get one, is that, if I can, I like to choose one with a late bye week. That way I don't have to waste an early week (and often crucial) waiver move/claim on a replacement kicker. It's not a huge deal, but it just gives you more time to not have to deal with it.
14. Once you've read this manifesto, everything else you read will be player-based. Guys I like and love, those I dislike and "hate" and all that. So I won't get into player stuff here. But I will quickly say that I feel our overall point totals are a tad too conservative. Now, this is a good thing -- it forces you to aim high when constructing your team -- but depending on what you're comfortable with, feel free to add one point (or just round up) to each player's weekly projected average points.
And finally …
15. Have fun! When I was writing my book "Fantasy Life" (am I really slapping one more plug in? You're damn right I am), fun was one of the themes that kept coming back to me. Whether it's having weird rules, great trash talk, weekly traditions, an amazing trophy or outlandish punishments for losing (getting your belly button pierced do anything for you? Because I've got a guy in the book who lost his league who had to do that!) … the important thing is to have fun.
It's about loving it when your running back vultures a touchdown, getting five field goals from your kicker, being able to call your buddy on Monday morning and just laugh into the phone for five minutes. It's about hilarious team names, cursing your favorite receiver for dropping a touchdown, and deciding that you don't care if it's a boy or a girl; you're naming your next kid Dez.
Remember, we do this for leisure. We all play to win, but it's not worth ruining friendships over. Well, unless you've really got a shot at the title. And it's not that good a friend. I mean, come on, you can always get a new friend. Or wife.
Good luck storming the castle.

[/h]

Ten players critical to 2013 success

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

I can't promise you that Adrian Peterson will be the NFL's MVP again in 2013. I can't promise that he'll threaten Eric Dickerson's all-time single-season rushing record again. And I can't promise that he'll finish as fantasy football's most valuable draftee again. But if you have the No. 1 overall pick in your league this year, Peterson is your choice. There's no controversy there.

That said, there might be more uncertainty in the rest of the fantasy world heading into '13 than I can ever remember. How many running backs do you think are "safe"? How many tight ends? Which quarterbacks will emerge from a giant upper echelon and become truly elite? Yes, selecting AP for your team makes things easy. But after that, we'll all have a whale of a time predicting the near football future.

With that in mind, let's look at 10 players who embody this uncertainty in '13, the guys about whom opinions will vary wildly and who could cause fantasy squads to soar or crater. My ranks for the upcoming season will sink or swim in great measure based on how accurately I've got these 10 guys pegged.


Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins: It sounds more and more like RGIII will play Week 1, despite tearing his right ACL on Jan. 6. If he's free and clear of all knee woes and allowed to play instinctively, I've got him ranked way too low at No. 9 among fantasy QBs. Heck, his 815 rushing yards last year were fifth-most in a single season by a signal-caller. As I discussed at length in my piece about running QBs, all RGIII has to do is maintain decent production as a thrower and he'd easily fit inside the top five fantasy QBs, provided his running stays strong. But that's the question, right? Even if he's ready to go on Sept. 9, will he be as willing to scramble? And will the knee hold up just nine months after the catastrophe?

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: Luck finished No. 9 among fantasy QBs last season, yet I've got him No. 12 for his sophomore campaign, and unlike RGIII, Luck isn't coming off surgery. There's every reason to believe Luck will improve in his sophomore campaign; I expect his completion percentage to be much better than 54.1 percent, and I expect he throws significantly fewer than 18 interceptions. To some extent, Luck is a victim of a numbers game: There are just a lot of really good QBs. I don't think there's much space at all between Matthew Stafford at 10, Tony Romo at 11 and Luck at 12. If there's a tiebreaker among those guys, it's concern over a changing Colts offense. Luck's collegiate offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton, will call plays in Indy this season, and while the big-armed Luck will always be a good bet to take some chances down the field, I expect Hamilton to focus on lower-risk, lower-reward, longer-drive play calling. Luck's efficiency will go up as a result. But his fantasy stats may plateau.

Steven Jackson, RB, Atlanta Falcons: My Twitter feed saw more action this spring over my ranking of Jackson than perhaps any other player. Jackson's doubters are worried that he turns 30 in July, that the Falcons are a pass-oriented offense, that Jacquizz Rodgers will take away a big chunk of the backfield workload, and that Jackson just isn't all that good. On that final point, I beg to differ. I have Jackson ranked No. 11 among RBs, and I think there's a chance that's not high enough. Look at where Jackson finished among fantasy RBs in each of his eight seasons as a starter with the Rams:




Consider that the Rams went 36-91-1 over this span, never posted a winning record, and lost 10-plus games five times. These were not good teams. It's obvious that the '13 Falcons will be Jackson's best squad, plus it's a team that made Michael Turner a usable fantasy player over the past two seasons (21 combined TDs) despite his obvious decline. Think of it this way: In the past three years, Jackson had 43 carries inside an opponent's 10. In that same span, Turner had 102. With a bad team, Jackson's downside has been a solid No. 2 fantasy RB. With a good one, a No. 11 ranking seems modest to me.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: I have MJD 15th among RBs, but I don't feel right about it. I wish I could've gone higher. One of my favorite players and an incredibly effective runner despite his 5-foot-7 stature, Jones-Drew is recovering from Lisfranc surgery and is considered questionable for the start of training camp. Plus, the Jaguars have changed over to a zone-blocking scheme with which MJD isn't familiar, and they brought in Justin Forsett -- who played in a zone system last year in Houston -- to be the backup. Add the continuing mess at QB, and MJD doesn't look primed for a re-breakout. But skills are what matter, and Pocket Hercules has skills in abundance. Jones-Drew is a goal-line beast, has deceptive speed, is amazingly quick, can catch it and can pass protect. Plus, he's entering a contract year after last season's bitter summer holdout. I wrote last year that MJD has a chance to make the Hall of Fame, and while losing 10 games to injury last season throws a wrench into that conversation, it's still possible (though he'll have to remain a very effective player into his 30s). I'll need to see him run in preseason game action before I can say for sure, but Jones-Drew is a candidate to seriously outperform his rank.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets: There's enough reason to doubt Ivory that I couldn't put him into my top 20 RBs (he's 21st). Even in an ancillary role with the Saints over the past three seasons, he suffered knee, hamstring, foot and head injuries. He's never had a lead job before, and he lands on a team with perhaps the worst QB situation in the NFL. But the impulse to value Ivory highly isn't a poor one. This isn't merely a case of a ham-and-egg type player landing a starting job, a la BenJarvus Green-Ellis last year with the Bengals. Ivory really does have skills. In his 256 career carries, Ivory has broken runs of 10-plus yards on 33 of them. That ratio of 12.9 percent puts Ivory 12th among all active RBs with at least 200 carries:




At 222 pounds, Ivory is the second-heaviest man on this list, behind only Stewart. That power/speed combo makes Ivory enticing. I believe he'll probably get hurt, but for as long as he's healthy, I think he easily beats out Mike Goodson and provides flex value at minimum.

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: If there's one player I'm worried I've ranked too low, it's Bell. I'm not a huge fan of his collegiate game tape: He seemed indecisive in the hole and took a long time to get up to speed. But you can't fake 244 pounds, and Bell lands in a tremendous situation for fantasy value. Incumbents Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer have fallen out of favor after each got a chance to take over the No. 1 job last year, and while nothing is ever guaranteed for a rookie with the Steelers, Bell will get a clear shot in training camp to win the job. (He's a good pass catcher for a man his size, too.) Over the past three seasons, Pittsburgh is fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts inside an opponent's 5-yard line, and Bell's body makes him a great candidate for that work. My gut still tells me he's not a star, but if I'm wrong, I freely admit that ranking him No. 23 among RBs could come back to haunt me.

Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos: The Broncos offense was in harmony with Peyton Manning slinging it to Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker last year, but the team couldn't pass up signing Welker for relatively short money (two years, $12 million). Will Welker's between-the-numbers excellence draw more of Manning's attention, the way guys like Dallas Clark and Austin Collie did in the past? Will that lead to fewer targets for Thomas and/or Decker? Here are my projections for '13:




If you add up the lost targets among Thomas, Decker, Stokley, Tamme and Dreessen, you get 109 for Welker; the fact that I gave him 135 means I expect Peyton Manning to throw even more than he did last season, when he posted 583 attempts, the third-highest total of his career. Of course, this is all far from certain. You can make an argument that I'm devaluing Decker too much by rating him 21st among WRs, considering he tied for seventh in WR fantasy points last season. But if his big TD total (13) doesn't recur, Decker is likely headed for a fall. Thomas is the truly special outside talent here, which explains why he's eighth on my WR list, while Welker is 15th.

Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots: The position Welker left behind in New England, where he saw those 173 luscious targets, is wide open now, and Amendola is the favorite to claim it. He's a bit bigger and has better deep speed than Welker does, which could actually cause him to be an even bigger part of a fairly untested Pats receiving corps than Welker was. But his problem is health. Amendola has missed 20 of 32 games in the past two seasons with some serious injuries. If you could promise me that he'd play all 16 at something resembling full strength, I'd tell you Amendola probably should sniff the top 10 WRs even in a standard league (and in a PPR league, he'd be well inside the top 10). But you can't tell me that, and that's why Amendola is on this list. His health will be one of the massive storylines of this fantasy season. If you get him on the cheap -- and he's the No. 20 WR on my list -- and he winds up healthy, your team will be in spectacular shape.

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns: Gordon already figured to be an interesting conversation starter even before his two-game suspension for a failed drug test. (He tested positive for codeine.) As a rookie supplemental pick who'd played no collegiate football since '10, he seemed like a bad bet for instant value in '12, yet Gordon scored five TDs and produced some big plays in a terrible Cleveland offense. The advent of Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner to the Browns should mean a more aggressive pass attack, and while Gordon doesn't have elite deep speed, he's got good enough wheels to take advantage of his 6-foot-4 frame and outmuscle defenders for the long ball. But remember, Brandon Weeden is under center, and he was nobody's idea of an NFL-ready player last season. Now that Gordon will miss two games, the hype train on him has slowed a bit, and I think that's for the best. Unless you believe Weeden is ready to make a major leap, it's hard to project any Browns WR for big week-to-week production. I have Gordon ranked as my No. 44 WR, keeping in mind that if he tests positive one more time, he's probably looking at a year-long ban.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: As the Pats have released Aaron Hernandez because of his legal troubles, Gronk is more important to the team's future than ever. But will he be ready to play Week 1? Multiple surgeries to his broken arm have finally apparently fixed that problem, but Gronkowski also underwent back surgery in June and will race the clock to be ready before Week 1. (He seems like a lock not to be ready for the beginning of training camp.) My opinion is that Gronkowski will play in the opener, Sept. 8 in Buffalo, but that's not certain. To err on the side of caution, I dropped Gronk to my No. 2 fantasy TE slot, behind Jimmy Graham, though I don't put much distance between them. The truth is, of course, that even if Gronkowski misses a game or two, he's still easily among the most valuable players in fantasy, as illustrated by his 38 TDs in 43 career games. But if you draft him and he starts the year on the PUP list (making him ineligible for the season's first six games), well, that would be bad. With Hernandez gone, players like Jake Ballard and (to a lesser extent) Michael Hoomanawanui could become factors. But they are certainly not the kind of fantasy options Gronk is.

[h=1]Assessing dual-threat QBs in fantasy[/h][h=3]Are today's athletic "Sprung Guns" greater fantasy threats?[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

The Washington Redskins were fading fast. They had a third-and-6 on their own 24, in the process of blowing a 19-point lead with 2:56 left in the fourth quarter. The Minnesota Vikings defense needed one more play. The Vikings brought six rushers. Brian Robison got a head start around the right side and collapsed the pocket. There was no time to find an open receiver. There was only time to step forward, find a space between linemen, and go.

Robert Griffin III went.

He sprinted up the middle, veered left. Free safety Jamarca Sanford took a bad line. Wide receiver Josh Morgan threw a timely block. And RGIII was gone: A lightning-bolt 76-yard TD run to save Washington's Week 6 bacon and a signature 13-point play in fantasy football. An absolute game-changer.

Colin Kaepernick. Cam Newton. Russell Wilson. RGIII. They all seem like game-changers, don't they? Their ability to get yards with their feet, to run the read-option, to threaten defenses in myriad ways: It just may be an NFL revolution. And with all these athletic QBs racking up fantasy points by running as well as passing, we may need to rethink the way we draft.

"Sprung Guns" can mean boffo points

The reason I usually advise you to wait on QBs when you're drafting is the fact that not all that much separates the best chuckers. It's better value to bypass the guy in the first round who'll get you 4,600 passing yards and 40 TDs, and wait until the fourth round to take the guy who'll get you 4,100 and 30. In the meantime you can grab better running backs and receivers and have a stronger overall squad.

But what if you could draft a player who can throw like an above-average QB and also threaten double-digit TDs with his legs? Now that they've been unleashed upon the NFL, Kaepernick, Newton, Wilson and Griffin have that kind of potential. Let's call them the Sprung Guns. Only two QBs posted three games of 30-plus fantasy points in 2012: Newton and RGIII. Freak athletes like this can practically win you your week by themselves.

It's also crucial to note that none of these Sprung Guns has more than two seasons of experience as a pro passer. They each have enough arm strength to make every throw, but have not yet begun racking up big weekly passing stats. As you can see in the chart below, each derived a huge percentage of his fantasy points in '12 from running, compared to the top traditional pocket passers. If and when these guys put it together as higher-volume, higher-efficiency throwers, the sky could be the fantasy football limit: The safe week-to-week rushing points they'd generate, buffered by a top QB's throwing points, would mean fantasy production from this position like we've never seen.

[h=3]Pct. of Fantasy Points From Rushing
Notable 2012 QBs[/h]NOTE: Fumbles lost aren't included in fantasy points from rushing



But can they do both? Can they generate big fantasy points running and throwing? It's a valid question to wonder whether, for example, Newton can continue to score 100-plus fantasy points per season with his legs and score 300-plus fantasy points per year with his arm. To some extent, that's really a matter of logic: If Big Cam is getting in the end zone via a running play, he's necessarily not scoring on the same drive via a passing play, and vice versa. Indeed, the history of high-rushing-TD QBs indicates that they tend not to produce high passing TD totals at the same time. On average, the 26 QBs who've run for at least six TDs in a season since the NFL schedule expanded to 16 games in 1978 have thrown for only 17.5 TDs in the same season. Even more damning: In only three of those 26 seasons has the QB thrown for more than 21 scores (and none have done so in the past 14 seasons).

[h=3]Most Pass TDs, QBs with 6+ Rush TDs
Single Season Since 1978[/h]


Make no mistake: Seasons like Newton's in '11 and '12 and Griffin's in '12 are entirely fantasy-worthy. If you go out and pass for between 3,000 and 4,000 yards, run for between 700 and 800 more, and then rush for seven-plus TDs and throw for 20 more, you're in the mix to be a top-five fantasy QB every single year. But you're not reinventing the game. You're merely taking a different route to reach heights that Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Manning regularly already reach. A true "redefinition" would require more. It would require even more passing yardage, but more importantly, would require an elite number of passing TDs. Give Newton 30 passing TDs last year, and he bumps up from the No. 4 QB spot to No. 1 with 353 fantasy points, beating out Brees by 16. Give him 30 passing TDs in '11, and he would've scored 398 fantasy points, beating out Rodgers by 13.

To put a finer point on it: We need a new Steve Young.

A look at the chart above tells us that only one QB who ran for six-plus TDs in a season also was an elite TD thrower. Steve Young was the focal point of an elite offense and the TDs truly ran through him. In both '94 and '98, he was fantasy's No. 1 QB. And in each campaign he would've been worthy of a top-three overall pick in terms of Value-Based Drafting. In '98, he finished behind only Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson in fantasy value according to VBD, while in '94, he was second only to Emmitt Smith. In most years, fantasy's top QB doesn't outdistance the "baseline" QB by enough to accumulate such value. For instance, in '12, while 12 of the top 13 players in terms of raw fantasy point total were QBs, in VBD terms none of them finished among the nine most valuable players in fantasy. So Young's elite pass/run years were unique, indeed. In each of those two campaigns, he led all QBs in TD passes and TD runs.

Can our Sprung Guns become Steve Young? That's the relevant question here. In his prime years, Young not only had a cannon for a throwing arm, but he was very accurate (regularly registering a 67-plus percent completion rate) and had elite weapons (Mr. Jerry Rice comes to mind). Newton's career completion percentage is 58.9. Vick's is 56.3. Kaepernick logged in at 62.4 percent last year, but started only half the season. Wilson and RGIII were closer to Young's great standard even as rookies (64.1 and 65.6 percent, respectively), but each had only 393 attempts, which tied them for 25th in the NFL last year -- one wonders if they can keep up such high rates with more throws. Plus, suffice it to say that none of these QBs have anyone approaching Rice for a target; the best weapon on any of these teams might be Percy Harvin, a slot receiver. Who's next? Steve Smith? Pierre Garcon? Nice players. Not Hall of Famers.

Still, now at least we've quantified the Sprung Guns' allure. When we dream of a new kind of fantasy QB, we're really dreaming of one who's already come before. We're dreaming of 4,000 yards passing, 500 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs and 30 passing TDs. (That season would translate to around 400 fantasy points, a mark that's never been reached by a QB.) We're dreaming of Steve Young.

The risk of the running QB

Of course, if it was easy to make it as a running QB, more guys would do it. It takes a crazy-great athlete, and it tempts the injury gods. One need only look at the star-crossed career of Michael Vick as a cautionary tale. Vick still holds the single-season record for rushing yards by a QB (1,039 in '06), but he's played a full 16 games exactly once in 10 pro seasons. He's been crunched in all three of his campaigns with the Philadelphia Eagles, missing multiple games with rib, leg and head injuries. He might be the greatest open-field runner in the history of the position, but defensive goliaths have always eventually made him pay.

How can we quantify this risk for the Sprung Guns? One way is to measure how frequently a QB's running style gets him hit. The chart below gives the percentage of total rushes on which these young men have been hit in their brief pro careers. It stands to reason that Newton would be most frequently hit, if only because he's a 6-foot-5, 245-pound monster and often is the one delivering the blow. On the other hand, it's heartening to see that in his half season of starting last year, Kaepernick was relatively adept at getting down or getting out.

[h=3]Highest Pct. of Hits Taken on Rush Attempts
Notable QBs, 2012 Season[/h]


Of course, as RGIII knows, all it takes is one hit to ruin a season. In Week 14 against the Ravens, he got into the open field but didn't see 340-pound Haloti Ngata bearing down on him. The resulting massive blow wrenched his leg sickeningly, and it's easy to draw a straight line between that hit and the torn right ACL he suffered during the playoffs.

And then there's this: Eleven QBs have had 90-plus rushing attempts in a season and then been a full-time starter the next year. Their average follow-up season? Four games missed, 77 rushes, 527 yards and three rushing TDs. It's fair to say that a high ground-game workload takes a toll:

[h=3]QBs with 90+ Rushes, Single Season
Next Season Totals[/h]


It's fine to whistle past the graveyard and promise yourself that Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick or Griffin is safe. But I'm betting that owners of Cunningham, Young and Vick were saying the same thing.

Beginning of a new era?

This fall, you'll hear TV talking heads say we've never seen anything like this new generation of running QBs. They'll say we're in a new play-calling era. They'll say the game has changed forever. But that will be hyperbole. For sure, '11 and '12 were exceptional seasons for rushing QBs, but as you can see in the chart below, they aren't the most exceptional seasons. I looked at the total number of league-wide rushing attempts by QBs, then divided by the number of teams in the league. The years 1999-2002 actually had more QB rushing attempts than '11 and '12. That was the era of early-career Vick, Daunte Culpepper, Kordell Stewart, Donovan McNabb, Doug Flutie, Rich Gannon and more. It's true that those players didn't run as much read-option as our Sprung Guns, but they did run a whole lot.

[h=3]Most QB Rush Attempts Per Team
Single Season, All-Time[/h]


I bring this up by way of saying: What goes around comes around. The league adjusts. I agree with the contention that the NFL may never have had four QBs like the Sprung Guns come into the league within a year of one another, and I don't want to minimize the impact that can have on your fantasy bottom line. But I want to inject a hint of sanity into the proceedings. As league trends go, we haven't even reached the running-QB heights of a decade ago. And why did the total number of QB rushing attempts begin to diminish around 2000 and reach extreme lows in the mid-2000s? (In '07, teams averaged 40.8 QB rushes per season, the lowest mark since '91.) Yes, I think you can argue that NFL QB personnel turned over, and it "just so happened" that we had fewer running QBs starting for NFL teams. But it's also fair to say that defenses adjusted. Emphasis on massive, Bill Parcells-style linebackers waned, and teams began to find room for smaller, faster players who could get sideline-to-sideline. (Think Jon Beason, Ernie Sims, NaVorro Bowman, D'Qwell Jackson, Wesley Woodyard and the like.)

I don't think defensive coordinators can just snap their fingers to dial up a catch-all solution for the read-option. But I do think they can do a better job when it isn't a surprise. Kaepernick didn't run much read-option at all during the '12 regular season, but the San Francisco 49ers unveiled it in the playoffs against the Green Bay Packers, and it was utterly devastating. (You'll recall Kaepernick set a single-game record for QB rushing yards with an impossible 181.) I'm not saying the read-option will instantly go the way of the Wildcat, but I can promise you this: Defenses will seek to punish QBs making mid-play decisions with the ball in their hands, as well as QBs who regularly run parallel to the line of scrimmage.

To draft or not to draft?

Still, it's obvious that we are in a period of expanding QB running. We have witnessed four of the five highest-attempt seasons in NFL history in the past two years. The greatest running-TD season for a QB was 14 by Newton in '11. Newton and RGIII each had an incredible 26 runs of 10-plus yards last season. If they stay healthy, all four of our Sprung Guns have the speed, moves and power to post crazy stats like this, which would mean that merely average throwing production would ensure them top-five fantasy seasons. It would also mean three or four times a year, they'd win you a fantasy game by themselves. And it would mean that if any of them are able to take a step forward toward elite throwing production, they could even eclipse the 400-point barrier, something no QB has ever done.

But clearly we can't promise they'll all stay healthy. RGIII is rehabbing his knee and may see his scrambling curtailed. Kaepernick, Wilson and Newton are easily ensconced within my favorite 10 QBs in this summer's drafts, but history shows at least one of them will probably miss time to injury. I'm heartened by a guy like Kaepernick, who avoided contact fairly well last season, albeit in only half a season. But all it takes is one hit. The more a QB runs, the riskier a pick he is. That's just a fact of life.

So the risk/reward embodied by the Sprung Guns boils down to this: The risk that they get hurt versus the reward that they become Steve Young. I look at Newton, Kaepernick, Wilson and Griffin and I don't quite see throwers who are ready to take that next step. Newton would need to bump up his completion rate by as many as 10 percentage points to make the Carolina Panthers' offense efficient enough to get to Young's 42-plus total TD level. Kaepernick would also have to increase his throwing efficiency and do it without his best wideout, Michael Crabtree, who's out with a torn Achilles. Wilson and Griffin have a year's worth of fine accuracy behind them, but need to show that their offenses are willing to unleash them as throwers. They don't necessarily need to throw a ton of passes way downfield (it's not like Young was a mad downfield bomber), but their volumes will have to increase. (In '98, Young had 12 games of 30-plus pass attempts; last year, Griffin had four and Wilson had three.)

I don't rule out the possibility that these extraordinary young athletes could make these kinds of leaps. But I'm probably not banking on it, and so I'm probably not building my draft strategy assuming it'll happen. And without a leap forward in passing stats, the Sprung Guns' upside (great running points, middling passing points) mathematically looks a lot like the veteran pocket passers' upside (meager running points, great passing points), but with an additional injury potential. That the reason I would rate all four Sprung Guns behind the game's elite pocket passers for '13. I'm excited by the possibility that we could see one of these kids put it all together and become Steve Young, but I'm not willing to pay a premium on draft day to find out. I rate Newton No. 22 overall, Kaepernick No. 37, Wilson No. 38, and RGIII No. 42. At those levels, they give you value. Any higher than that, I think the risk outweighs the reward.

Is the third-year breakout WR real?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Not every piece of fantasy football analysis needs to involve some sort of innovative strategy or clever theory.

In fact, foisting either upon the fantasy community using a handful of cherry-picked examples, rather than detailed examination, does more disservice than good. If you haven't thoroughly tested a hypothesis, how can you jump to a conclusion?


In the 2012 NFL campaign, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, all of them wide receivers playing their third seasons, broke out in a big way. The temptation, therefore, to expect a similar step forward in 2013 from third-year wide receivers Torrey Smith, Cecil Shorts and Vincent Brown might be irresistible.

Yes, the time is ripe for analysts to once again attempt to sell you on the notion of a "third-year wide receiver breakout" theory. They might lean on 2012's examples or perhaps cite other recent instances from the past decade, such as Braylon Edwards (2007), Sidney Rice (2009) or the New York Giants' Steve Smith (2009).

But the problem with leaning on one year's worth of supporting evidence is that it ignores the varying strengths of annual draft classes. Need we cite the 2002 NFL draft, which produced precisely five 1,000-yard receiving seasons total (led by two apiece from Antonio Bryant and Javon Walker) and one 10-touchdown season (by Walker). Plus, from a historical perspective -- referencing the past decade only -- providing a mere list of success stories ignores the various failures among beefed-up "third-year wide receiver breakout" candidates: How about Dwayne Bowe (2009), Mark Clayton (2007) or Michael Crabtree (2011)?

Incidentally, what about members of the 2013 third-year wide receiver class who have already broken out, like A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Randall Cobb? If additional wide receivers from the same class break through this season, are we going to ignore those who broke out as sophomores?

Fantasy owners ultimately shouldn't be investing in specific NFL wide receiver classes, but should be spreading their risk among younger players based upon skills and opportunity. If Smith, Shorts or Brown is your target this season, it should be because Smith is now the No. 1 receiver for the Baltimore Ravens, or because Shorts is the same for the Jacksonville Jaguars, or because Brown is a crisp route-runner who opened eyes during OTAs. Not because of some silly theory.

History supports this. Fifty-seven wide receivers have managed at least 1,200 career fantasy points, a number deliberately selected to isolate a group of players who are unquestionable fantasy successes. Anything less runs the risk of skewing the data by including wide receivers whose careers might have been fueled by either one random, outstanding season or longevity as a mediocre performer (think 10-plus years as a WR3/4). Remember, this has been touted a breakout player theory, not an "Oh, he developed into an OK fantasy player" theory.

The following chart breaks down what these 57 wide receivers did by years of NFL experience. The first line, for example, represents their rookie years, the second their second years and so on. Take special note of the "First 150?" column, which indicates the year of his career during which the player first reached the 150-fantasy-point plateau. The significance of that benchmark is that an average of 12.3 wide receivers per year have reached it since 2001.

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While those third-year statistics show a sizable amount of growth, take note of those increases experienced by second- and fifth-year wide receivers, which are larger. Using a sample of only the all-time best wide receivers, it appears that the most common pattern has them "arriving" as an impact NFL player in their second years, then breaking out or reaching their career peak during their fifth years. It's no surprise, then, that Green, Jones and Cobb fared well in 2012.

But let's not approach this from only one angle. After all, isolating only the most successful wide receivers in history grants us the advantage of hindsight. As this theory is a predictive one, let's now examine the career paths of the some of the game's most highly touted wide receiver prospects.

This time, we'll use the 100 wide receivers -- yes, it's exactly 100 -- who were selected among the first 70 players in the NFL draft since the year 2000. These were generally the most promising prospects in the game, so their career progressions should be of particular interest.

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The chart above does lend credence to a third-year wide receiver theory, though that year's advantage over, say, Years 2 or 4 is hardly overwhelming. Feel free to use your judgment; mine is that 11 players broke out as third-year players compared to six in Year 2. I'm hardly going to splurge only on third-year players at the expense of second- or even fourth-year players. That's simply not a wide enough split to justify constructing a strategy.

Here's another fact about those 100 wide receiver prospects that you should know: Only 25 of them have ever managed a season with at least 150 fantasy points and 37 of them have failed to reach that plateau despite playing at least eight years in the league. That's an extremely high failure rate, and it's another factor to consider before assuming players at any career phase are due to break out.

Ultimately, either approach to the project suggests that if a wide receiver is going to break out, it is most likely going to occur between his second and his fifth season in the league. Be selective; skills are a far more compelling reason to invest than the amount of experience.

After all, keep this in mind: This year's unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, actually endured one of his worst campaigns in NFL Year No. 3. He totaled just 124 fantasy points, a mere 8.9 per game, or more than three points per game fewer than he had in either his second or fourth seasons.

[h=3]Breakout wide receiver candidates, Years 2-5[/h]
Year 2: Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, Rueben Randle
Year 3: Torrey Smith, Cecil Shorts, Vincent Brown
Year 4: Antonio Brown, Golden Tate
Year 5: Brian Hartline, Darrius Heyward-Bey

[h=1]My 2013 breakout receiver picks are ... [/h]By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Whenever a new fantasy sports season arrives -- and if you've seen our comprehensive draft kit, you know fantasy football 2013 is definitely here -- I often look back at predictions made the previous year to see what went right, what did not and to learn from mistakes. One of my noteworthy wide receiver sleepers of 2012 was Vincent Brown of the San Diego Chargers, an emerging talent who figured to capitalize on opportunity in his sophomore campaign and make those fantasy owners who took the late-round gamble on him proud.

Of course, unlike many of the sleepers who did not reach their potential for various unexcused reasons -- such as running back teammate Ryan Mathews -- Brown had a pretty good excuse: He busted his ankle catching a touchdown pass in a preseason game, and the injury was serious enough to cost him the entire season. It hardly affected the Chargers' high hopes for future production, though, as a healthy Brown looked terrific during the team's recent minicamp and offseason workouts, and the opportunity certainly remains for the breakout many expected.

<offer>Fantasy owners often rely too much on short-term memory, allowing recent performance to color their perspective on players. Yes, Brown caught nary a pass during the 2012 season, so if you're drafting based solely on statistics, you'll miss him. Even as a rookie, Brown sure wasn't Randy Moss circa 1998, as he saw only 40 targets in 14 games (four starts) and hauled in 19 of them (averaging, though, an attractive 17.3 yards per play). Quarterback Philip Rivers seems to have myriad options at his disposal, but they're filled with flaws, be it health for Danario Alexander, consistency for Robert Meachem, a combination of each for Malcom Floyd or being near-eligible for social security benefits like tight end Antonio Gates. What is Brown's issue? Suffering a fluke injury in a preseason game last year?

</offer>Brown isn't particularly tall or blessed with blazing speed, but teammates and coaches have raved about his precise route running and mature game, and quarterbacks tend to notice those traits. The San Diego State product was NFL-ready when he entered the league as a third-round pick. A restructured offense under new coach Mike McCoy should prevent Rivers from making mistakes (in theory) and seems tailor-made for Brown's ability to get open. I'm targeting him after Round 10 as a fourth or fifth fantasy wideout. What kind of numbers are we looking at? It's reasonable to project, assuming he gets plenty of playing time, 70 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and five touchdowns. I'd say that's worth a mid- to late-round pick.

Who are some other potential wide receiver breakouts in 2013? Glad you asked! To be included below, players cannot be among the top 40 in our rankings. I mean, I like Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith and Josh Gordon to step up a bit more this season, but this list will look deeper.

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: Injuries truncated his rookie season, but he was on the fantasy radar in deeper formats and made several big plays in December to tantalize us. Brandon Marshall didn't share the targets much in 2012, but Jeffery should change that, not only as another possession receiver, but with more red zone work pending.

Andre Roberts, Arizona Cardinals: Sure, Larry Fitzgerald was the potential top-10 wide receiver and Michael Floyd the hotshot rookie, but Roberts outscored both in fantasy points. Now that the team has a legit quarterback -- it's about time! -- in Carson Palmer, the other two guys are moving up draft boards. Don't ignore Roberts, who figures to blossom just as much in the new Bruce Arians offense.

Chris Givens, St. Louis Rams: Speaking of rookies, I'm generally not the fellow taking early chances on unproven youngsters such as Tavon Austin, regardless of their real-life draft position. Most rookies struggle. Givens certainly did not in 2012, as the deep threat produced 50-yard pass plays in five consecutive games at one point and should stretch defenses for years. Having Austin around will help him. Based on early live draft results, Givens, who is being taken -- on average -- in Round 13, is a better bargain than Austin (Round 8).

Rueben Randle, New York Giants: I'm an Eli Manning defender; I expect him to bounce back to greater fantasy relevance (4,200 passing yards). And knowing the durability woes for starting wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, Randle should see ample opportunity, and this time around, he should be better prepared. Randle figures to be an enticing deep threat, and with Victor Cruz's role having changed drastically last season (from 18.7 yards per catch to 12.7), the upside option is Randle.

Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans: He suffered from his team's woeful quarterback play a year ago, and perhaps Jake Locker never becomes reliable, but don't read too much into Wright's failure to average even 10 yards per catch. Locker must improve some, and Wright is far more skilled than those stats indicate. The Baylor product could catch 80 passes and flirt with 1,000 yards.

[h=1]12-team PPR mock draft[/h][h=3]Adding two teams to mock makes a difference in strategy

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com[/h]Scott Warren had just moved to Atlanta and, wanting to socialize with leaguemates in person, found one with an opening on Craigslist.
"It was an eight-team keeper league that had been running for about 10 years. Fifty bucks to get in. Yeah, kind of small, but I just wanted to play. So I started looking over strategies for eight-team leagues and doing my homework to crush the competition."
Scott did more than that. Custom, in-depth spreadsheets, rankings, projections, depth charts . . . all loaded on his computer. As Scott says, "I love being the most prepared person at the table."
But when Scott gets there, there are only six other guys who will draft. Now it's a seven-man league apparently. Great, he thinks. What a waste of my time. Scott continues. "The commissioner then says $150 would be going to the website they host the league on. Ouch! That left just $200 to win on a $50 investment. My hopes of enjoying this league at all were dwindling."
But then Scott learned that of the remaining $200, $100 would be taken out and put into a girl's fund for college. He's just about to leave when he learns why.
"The league name was the George Braitsch Memorial League. This league first started with some work buddies, and Mr. Braitsch had dominated this league for years. Tragically, some years ago Mr. Braitsch unexpectedly passed away midseason, leaving behind a wife and young daughter. The members of the league decided to name the league in honor of their friend."
In fact, Scott learned, George was the eighth owner. "His team is filled with benchwarmers, but he will always be a part of this league. The members decided that they would take $100 from the pool every year and put it in a trust for his daughter to have after she graduates high school to help buy books for college or whatever she needs. And before we drafted, the commissioner gave everyone an update on the young girl, how she was doing, and what extracurricular activities she was involved in."
"I was amazed at how truly touching the whole story was. It reminded me that playing fantasy wasn't about winning money or proving who was the best, it was just about having a good time with good people. I could tell the rest of the guys were here for that reason. No one had a laptop, only a couple had a magazine, and most just had a few handwritten notes. So for the first time ever in a draft, I packed up my laptop, yanked a cheat sheet out of a magazine, and just started to scratch off names as they were called.
"It wasn't about proving anything. It was just about having a good time."


That's one of my favorite draft stories of all time. It's from my upcoming book, "Fantasy Life," which comes out July 16, and if you'd like more info, you can go to fantasylifethebook.com, or just click the link in the box to the right. I hit the road next week to promote the book, and I hope I get to meet a ton of you this summer. We'll talk book stories, sleepers, busts and whatever else you want, including what to do in a 12-team PPR league.
Yes, before I left for book-selling, I took part in a 12-team mock draft with my ESPN cohorts. While it would have been impossible for Scott Warren to mock-draft for the George Braitsch league, most of us will be in leagues where doing mock drafts absolutely will help us prepare for draft day.
So with that in mind, here's our latest mock, which featured starting lineups consisting of one QB, two RBs, two WRs, a TE, a flex, a K and D/ST, along with a seven-man bench. Outside of one point per reception, we stuck with ESPN standard scoring settings.
Your humble participants, in draft order were: Christopher Harris, Brian Gramling, Eric Karabell, your friendly neighborhood TMR, KC Joyner, Jim McCormick, AJ Mass, James Quintong, Dave Hunter, Keith Lipscomb, Field Yates and Tristan H. Cockcroft.
In PPR leagues, my draft strategy is slightly different from what I discussed in this year's Draft Day Manifesto, as pass-catchers have more value, obviously, but the same general principles apply here: Quarterback is deep, there are four elite guys and then a bunch of the same at wide receiver, I want to be the first guy to draft a tight end (Jimmy Graham) or the last, and there's a scarcity of usable running backs, though PPR helps the pool a little. So I was just gonna go best player available, following those principles. Let's see how I and everyone else did.

[h=4]ROUND 1[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	1	RB1	Adrian Peterson, Min RB	Harris
2	2	RB2	Arian Foster, Hou RB	Gramling
3	3	RB3	Ray Rice, Bal RB	Karabell
4	4	RB4	Doug Martin, TB RB	Berry
5	5	RB5	Jamaal Charles, KC RB	Joyner
6	6	RB6	C.J. Spiller, Buf RB	McCormick
7	7	RB7	Trent Richardson, Cle RB	Mass
8	8	RB8	Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB	Quintong
9	9	WR1	Calvin Johnson, Det WR	Hunter
10	10	RB9	LeSean McCoy, Phi RB	Lipscomb
11	11	RB10	Matt Forte, Chi RB	Yates
12	12	WR2	A.J. Green, Cin WR	Cockcroft

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What I was thinking: Ooh, Pick 4. OK, I can live with that. I assume Peterson, Foster and Martin are going in the top three, so I'm probably deciding between Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles. I believe the Bernard Pierce concerns are overblown. Yes, Pierce will be involved, but Rice is still going to be heavily involved. Charles, meanwhile, in an Andy Reid offense with Alex Smith as his QB, is gonna have a monster PPR year. Reid is no dummy and he's got two playmakers on this team. He's gonna get Charles in space as much as possible.
What I actually did: How did Martin fall to four? Awesome. I'm thrilled with this, as Martin was the second-highest scoring running back last year in ESPN standard PPR formats. Skewed by the big game, of course, but still. The biggest improvement a player makes is from Year 1 to Year 2, and Martin was not only a stud last season, he did much of it without his two best offensive linemen. His 472 yards receiving were fifth-most among running backs and his 49 receptions were tied for eighth. Last year, I was screaming in the preseason that we were too low on him in the overall ranks, and in this mock, at least, I feel the same way.
Things that make you go hmmmm: You're damn right I'm quoting C+C Music Factory. Freedom! Anyway, interesting to see Hunter go Calvin and Cockcroft go Green. Can't argue with it in a PPR, obviously, but I wonder if not getting a running back in the first will hurt at all later. Here's a hint: Yes.
Tristan offered this after the draft: "Yeah, I'll say it. People constantly complain about being 'stuck' with the final pick in any draft format, and while I've argued for years that draft slot is largely irrelevant -- years in which it did tend to be outliers -- I can say this in 2013: It sucks to be in the 12 spot in a PPR league. Hey, if others can complain, I say I get the opportunity for once! I'm restricting it to merely that -- 12-team PPR, because of how much it skews RB replacement levels -- so if you're in that format, I say push your league's commish to go the auction route before you run the risk of being stuck at 12. And here's why: It's actually rounds 3 and 4, not 1 and 2, in which you're in a rough spot. When those picks came up, 21 running backs and 11 wide receivers were already off the board. But granted, this group drafts well, and maybe in other leagues a good player drops. It led to a lot of defensive drafting, not a strategy I endorse, but one that was necessary."
I'll add that I like the pick of Forte at the end. In Marc Trestman's offense, Forte should excel even more in PPR than he already has.
[h=4][/h][h=4]ROUND 2[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	13	RB11	Darren Sproles, NO RB	Cockcroft
2	14	WR3	Dez Bryant, Dal WR	Yates
3	15	WR4	Brandon Marshall, Chi WR	Lipscomb
4	16	RB12	Steven Jackson, Atl RB	Hunter
5	17	WR5	Andre Johnson, Hou WR	Quintong
6	18	QB1	Aaron Rodgers, GB QB	Mass
7	19	RB13	Alfred Morris, Wsh RB	McCormick
8	20	RB14	Chris Johnson, Ten RB	Joyner
9	21	RB15	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB	Berry
10	22	RB16	Reggie Bush, Det RB	Karabell
11	23	QB2	Drew Brees, NO QB	Gramling
12	24	WR6	Roddy White, Atl WR	Harris

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What I was thinking: I was trying to decide between going wideout here or a second running back. I was also thinking about Jimmy Graham here. If I was going for running back No. 2, it was between Maurice-Jones Drew, Reggie Bush (gonna have a big PPR year in Detroit -- did you know Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure caught a combined 86 passes last season?) or maybe Stevan Ridley, as I love Ridley this year. He's not going to catch a lot of balls, but New England is going to run, and run very effectively.
What I actually did: Once the big four WRs were gone, I was waiting and went with MJD. If he's healthy and back to 2011 form, I just won the league. If not, well, I'll have some work to do.
Things that make you go hmmmm: I was surprised Alfred Morris slipped to the middle of the round. Hey, I get it, he doesn't catch passes. He was still the seventh-best fantasy running back last year in PPR, and they're gonna lean on him more this season, not less, as they try to protect Robert Griffin III. Given the scarcity at RB, I'm surprised he lasted until Pick No. 19.

[h=4]ROUND 3[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	25	RB17	Darren McFadden, Oak RB	Harris
2	26	RB18	DeMarco Murray, Dal RB	Gramling
3	27	RB19	Frank Gore, SF RB	Karabell
4	28	TE1	Jimmy Graham, NO TE	Berry
5	29	WR7	Julio Jones, Atl WR	Joyner
6	30	WR8	Percy Harvin, Sea WR	McCormick
7	31	WR9	Randall Cobb, GB WR	Mass
8	32	RB20	Stevan Ridley, NE RB	Quintong
9	33	WR10	Demaryius Thomas, Den WR	Hunter
10	34	WR11	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR	Lipscomb
11	35	RB21	David Wilson, NYG RB	Yates
12	36	RB22	Montee Ball, Den RB	Cockcroft

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What I was thinking: Hey, Jimmy Graham is still there!
What I actually did: I took the No. 1 tight end, and with Rob Gronkowski's injury concerns, there is no close second. A lot of the wide receivers who went in this round are appealing, of course, and I knew I would be chasing wideouts the rest of the way by making this pick, but the advantage at tight end every week was just too great to ignore. I felt I had a better chance every week picking a wideout who will go off than a tight end. More to pick from.
Things that make you go hmmmm: For the teams that didn't go RB/RB, you start to see some reaches. I understand why Harris and Gramling went McFadden and Murray; certainly there's lot of upside there if they stay healthy. I just don't believe either guy does. I feel better about MJD's health chances than that of either of those guys. Karabell gets nice value with Gore in Round 3, even though he's no longer catching balls like he used to. Gramling says, "My toughest decision was Round 3, where I was definitely taking a RB, choosing Murray ahead of Gore, Ridley, Wilson and Ball. Although injury-prone, I think Murray will thrive in Bill Callahan's offense that promises to run the football more."

[h=4]ROUND 4[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	37	WR12	Wes Welker, Den WR	Cockcroft
2	38	WR13	Danny Amendola, NE WR	Yates
3	39	RB23	Shane Vereen, NE RB	Lipscomb
4	40	QB3	Tom Brady, NE QB	Hunter
5	41	WR14	Reggie Wayne, Ind WR	Quintong
6	42	WR15	Vincent Jackson, TB WR	Mass
7	43	WR16	Victor Cruz, NYG WR	McCormick
8	44	WR17	Marques Colston, NO WR	Joyner
9	45	WR18	Dwayne Bowe, KC WR	Berry
10	46	WR19	Jordy Nelson, GB WR	Karabell
11	47	TE2	Rob Gronkowski, NE TE	Gramling
12	48	WR20	Mike Wallace, Mia WR	Harris

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What I was thinking: OK, I gotta get a wide receiver now. Hoping Welker, Amendola, Jackson, Cruz, Colston or Bowe fell.
What I actually did: It came down to Bowe or Jordy Nelson for me. I have them right next to each other, but in PPR I just felt Bowe was safer and more consistent. Reid's teams, in his 14 seasons as a head coach, have ranked in the top 10 in passing yards eight times and in the top 10 in passing TDs seven times. They are going to throw in Kansas City, and when they throw, it's going to go to Bowe. It may not always be pretty, but volume-wise, Bowe is going to have a nice fantasy year.
Things that make you go hmmmm: Wow, that's early on Brady. I have him fifth at QB, behind Peyton Manning and Cam Newton, and one thing we've learned with this group doing mock drafts is you can wait on quarterbacks. And I'm on the Shane Vereen hype train, too ... but in Round 4, Keith?
"Clearly, my pick of Vereen at 39 was a surprise. It was a surprise to me, even! But as the 23rd RB selected, and knowing I'd have to wait 19 more picks before taking my No. 2 back if I didn't grab one there, I decided to put my money where my mouth has been this offseason. I think Vereen will be a key part of the Patriots' offense and in a PPR format, I see him as a top-20 RB, whether he starts or not. I could be wrong, of course, but I felt I needed to take the best back on my board. I felt I could get quality WRs later on, and thought I'd get one of my top-12 QBs as well."
Hmm. We'll see. I like Gramling's pick of Gronk here. He's already playing the hope-he-stays-healthy card with Murray, so why not shoot for the moon with Gronk, especially with another pick soon?
[h=4][/h][h=4]ROUND 5[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	49	RB24	Lamar Miller, Mia RB	Harris
2	50	WR21	Antonio Brown, Pit WR	Gramling
3	51	TE3	Tony Gonzalez, Atl TE	Karabell
4	52	QB4	Peyton Manning, Den QB	Berry
5	53	WR22	Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR	Joyner
6	54	RB25	Chris Ivory, NYJ RB	McCormick
7	55	RB26	Ryan Mathews, SD RB	Mass
8	56	TE4	Jason Witten, Dal TE	Quintong
9	57	RB27	Eddie Lacy, GB RB	Hunter
10	58	RB28	Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB	Lipscomb
11	59	WR23	Tavon Austin, StL WR	Yates
12	60	QB5	Cam Newton, Car QB	Cockcroft

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What I was thinking: After my pick of Bowe, I started looking at other WRs -- I like Antonio Brown a lot in PPR this year -- and thinking about whether I wanted to risk the health of a guy like Nicks or someone like Steve Smith, whom I don't love in PPR. Maybe Jordy will fall. I really like Lamar Miller this year, so if he were there, I'd think about grabbing a third running back and figure out WR later.
What I ended up doing: With Jordy, Miller and Brown off the table, I didn't feel there were any difference-makers out there. If Nicks stays healthy, I may regret that. I just don't trust that he will. But I just kept thinking: It's the sixth round. He's Peyton Manning. Come on. I couldn't resist any longer. Yes, QB is deep, but after Peyton and Cam (I have Manning one spot higher), there is a drop-off, and again, I wanted an advantage at a position where there was a lot of sameness to it.
Things that make you go hmmmm: I was surprised Ivory and Lacy went where they did, I don't see either guy involved in the passing game; both might be in time-shares and Ivory has an injury history as well. Bell is a nice RB3 for Lipscomb here; I prefer him over either Lacy or Ivory in PPR formats. I'm fairly high on Austin, but apparently not as much as Field, as he grabs the rookie for his flex spot. Amendola, Wilson, Tavon ... Yates is building the all-upside team.

[h=4]ROUND 6[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	61	WR24	Steve Smith, Car WR	Cockcroft
2	62	WR25	Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR	Yates
3	63	WR26	Cecil Shorts, Jac WR	Lipscomb
4	64	TE5	Vernon Davis, SF TE	Hunter
5	65	WR27	Greg Jennings, Min WR	Quintong
6	66	WR28	Anquan Boldin, SF WR	Mass
7	67	WR29	Eric Decker, Den WR	McCormick
8	68	QB6	Matt Ryan, Atl QB	Joyner
9	69	RB29	Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind RB	Berry
10	70	WR30	Steve Johnson, Buf WR	Karabell
11	71	WR31	Danario Alexander, SD WR	Gramling
12	72	WR32	James Jones, GB WR	Harris

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[h=4]ROUND 7[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	73	WR33	Torrey Smith, Bal WR	Harris
2	74	RB30	BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin RB	Gramling
3	75	QB7	Colin Kaepernick, SF QB	Karabell
4	76	WR34	Miles Austin, Dal WR	Berry
5	77	RB31	Johnathan Franklin, GB RB	Joyner
6	78	RB32	Giovani Bernard, Cin RB	McCormick
7	79	TE6	Dennis Pitta, Bal TE	Mass
8	80	QB8	Russell Wilson, Sea QB	Quintong
9	81	RB33	Rashard Mendenhall, Ari RB	Hunter
10	82	WR35	Kenny Britt, Ten WR	Lipscomb
11	83	RB34	Isaiah Pead, StL RB	Yates
12	84	RB35	Ryan Williams, Ari RB	Cockcroft

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What I was thinking: Clearly, I need another WR badly after going Peyton in Round 5. Pickings are starting to get slim. I was looking at Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, James Jones, Cecil Shorts and was also considering getting a third running back. You can never have too many RBs, even in a PPR. Because there's such a dearth of them, you can always trade one for a WR if you can't find suitable guys later in the draft or on the waiver wire. I also thought about Giovani Bernard as an interesting PPR guy with Bengals running backs coach Hue Jackson telling Bengals.com that they might line him up outside in some sets.
What I ended up doing: Taking Ahmad Bradshaw, who was the last good RB left. Bradshaw is a great blocking back, he'll be in all of Andrew Luck's passing plays and is a better pass-catcher than you think. Health is always a concern, but in Indy's new West Coast offense, he could easily catch 40 to 45 balls if he plays in all 16 games. I loved getting him here. In Round 7, Miles Austin was the best of the "He could be good, so I'm crossing my fingers and hoping" category. I'm gonna need a lot of those going forward, but with QB, TE and RB set for me (I'm banking on MJD being healthy), I can fill in the rest of the way with WRs and hope to mix and match throughout the season.
Things that make you go hmmmm: Anquan Boldin ahead of Torrey Smith? I thought Boldin was a nice move by San Francisco, but I can't see him having huge fantasy value, even without Michael Crabtree. I like him better in PPR than I do in normal scoring, but that struck me as a bit of a reach. Hunter makes a nice grab with Rashard Mendenhall, who early reports have as the starter in Arizona. In Round 7 of a 12-teamer, that's a solid pick.

[h=4]ROUND 8[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	85	RB36	Daryl Richardson, StL RB	Cockcroft
2	86	QB9	Andrew Luck, Ind QB	Yates
3	87	RB37	Andre Brown, NYG RB	Lipscomb
4	88	QB10	Robert Griffin III, Wsh QB	Hunter
5	89	RB38	Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl RB	Quintong
6	90	D1	Seahawks D/ST	Mass
7	91	WR36	DeSean Jackson, Phi WR	McCormick
8	92	WR37	Mike Williams, TB WR	Joyner
9	93	WR38	Jeremy Maclin, Phi WR	Berry
10	94	RB39	Vick Ballard, Ind RB	Karabell
11	95	RB40	Jonathan Stewart, Car RB	Gramling
12	96	QB11	Matthew Stafford, Det QB	Harris

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[h=4]ROUND 9[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	97	TE7	Kyle Rudolph, Min TE	Harris
2	98	WR39	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR	Gramling
3	99	WR40	T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR	Karabell
4	100	WR41	Emmanuel Sanders, Pit WR	Berry
5	101	RB41	Bernard Pierce, Bal RB	Joyner
6	102	QB12	Tony Romo, Dal QB	McCormick
7	103	WR42	Lance Moore, NO WR	Mass
8	104	WR43	Kendall Wright, Ten WR	Quintong
9	105	WR44	Denarius Moore, Oak WR	Hunter
10	106	QB13	Eli Manning, NYG QB	Lipscomb
11	107	RB42	Danny Woodhead, SD RB	Yates
12	108	WR45	Chris Givens, StL WR	Cockcroft

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[h=4]ROUND 10[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	109	WR46	Alshon Jeffery, Chi WR	Cockcroft
2	110	RB43	DeAngelo Williams, Car RB	Yates
3	111	WR47	Josh Gordon, Cle WR	Lipscomb
4	112	RB44	Mark Ingram, NO RB	Hunter
5	113	RB45	Mikel Leshoure, Det RB	Quintong
6	114	RB46	Fred Jackson, Buf RB	Mass
7	115	RB47	Ben Tate, Hou RB	McCormick
8	116	WR48	Sidney Rice, Sea WR	Joyner
9	117	RB48	Bryce Brown, Phi RB	Berry
10	118	WR49	Andre Roberts, Ari WR	Karabell
11	119	D2	49ers D/ST	Gramling
12	120	RB49	Zac Stacy, StL RB	Harris

<THEAD>
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What I was thinking: I need WRs. Looking at the T.Y. Hiltons of the world, the Philadelphia duo, Lance Moore is there. Oddly, at this point there's actually more high-upside RBs I like than WRs, but whatever. I gotta get some WRs and because I waited so long, I need depth here so I can play matchups during the season.
What I ended up doing: I went Maclin over Jackson, as I felt he's less hit-or-miss than Jackson and in a contract year, I'm hoping that Maclin steps up the way he did at the end of last season (three scores in his final four games, including two 100-yard games). With Mike Wallace gone, Emmanuel Sanders should be a really nice PPR play this year as the No. 2 wideout in an offense that was 12th in pass attempts last season. Finally, with some health concerns among my running backs, I grabbed Bryce Brown, who should get 10 to 12 touches a game with some upside for more in what I expect to be a heavy-run, high-tempo Chip Kelly offense.
Things that make you go hmmmm: After being the third guy to take a QB in Tom Brady, Hunter goes back to the QB well, grabbing Robert Griffin III. This put a crimp in Lipscomb's plans, forcing him to take an Eli Manning he didn't really want. Hunter certainly has nice trade depth at QB, or maybe he's just hedging his bets in case Brady can't find anyone healthy to pass to. We also saw defenses start to fly off the board. In general, I am OK with taking a defense before the second-to-last round in a league deeper than 10 teams, though Round 8 seems a tad early. Most others seem to agree, as the next defense didn't go until Gramling took the Niners in Round 10. Stafford and Romo were nice value picks this late. As Joyner notes, "QB depth is incredibly high. Getting Ryan in Round 6 initially looked like something of a bargain, but Tony Romo, who isn't much of a step down from Ryan, lasted until Round 9." This year, wait on QBs, kids. I won't draft one until after Round 3 in a 10- or 12-team league. Shoutout to Yates for a really nice, sneaky PPR pick in Danny Woodhead. We also saw some of the bigger "handcuff" types go here, with Pierce and Ben Tate joining my Bryce Brown. All could be top-10 backs if something happens to the guy in front of them.

[h=4]ROUND 11[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	121	RB50	Joseph Randle, Dal RB	Harris
2	122	WR50	Malcom Floyd, SD WR	Gramling
3	123	RB51	Marcel Reece, Oak RB	Karabell
4	124	WR51	Michael Floyd, Ari WR	Berry
5	125	D3	Broncos D/ST	Joyner
6	126	D4	Bears D/ST	McCormick
7	127	RB52	Shonn Greene, Ten RB	Mass
8	128	WR52	Santonio Holmes, NYJ WR	Quintong
9	129	RB53	Ronnie Hillman, Den RB	Hunter
10	130	RB54	LaMichael James, SF RB	Lipscomb
11	131	WR53	Robert Woods, Buf WR	Yates
12	132	TE8	Brandon Myers, NYG TE	Cockcroft

<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 12[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	133	D5	Texans D/ST	Cockcroft
2	134	WR54	Cordarrelle Patterson, Min WR	Yates
3	135	RB55	Justin Forsett, Jac RB	Lipscomb
4	136	D6	Patriots D/ST	Hunter
5	137	RB56	Robert Turbin, Sea RB	Quintong
6	138	QB14	Ryan Tannehill, Mia QB	Mass
7	139	TE9	Antonio Gates, SD TE	McCormick
8	140	WR55	Brian Hartline, Mia WR	Joyner
9	141	WR56	Justin Blackmon, Jac WR	Berry
10	142	QB15	Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB	Karabell
11	143	TE10	Jared Cook, StL TE	Gramling
12	144	WR57	Brandon Lloyd, FA WR	Harris

<THEAD>
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[h=4]ROUND 13[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	145	WR58	Rueben Randle, NYG WR	Harris
2	146	RB57	Michael Bush, Chi RB	Gramling
3	147	WR59	Ryan Broyles, Det WR	Karabell
4	148	D7	Ravens D/ST	Berry
5	149	TE11	Greg Olsen, Car TE	Joyner
6	150	RB58	Pierre Thomas, NO RB	McCormick
7	151	RB59	Brandon Bolden, NE RB	Mass
8	152	D8	Bengals D/ST	Quintong
9	153	RB60	Michael Turner, FA RB	Hunter
10	154	D9	Packers D/ST	Lipscomb
11	155	WR60	Keenan Allen, SD WR	Yates
12	156	QB16	Joe Flacco, Bal QB	Cockcroft

<THEAD>
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What I was thinking: Just more filling in my depth. With Peyton and Graham, I wasn't going to draft a backup. I'll grab a waiver-wire guy during a bye week; I'd rather fill my roster with upside plays at RB and WR than a backup to either guy, which at this point would be the same as replacement level. I planned on getting more WRs than RBs, though, because that's where I felt the weakest. Among the guys I was eying as high-upside potential receivers were Santonio Holmes, Aaron Dobson, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Blackmon. I also thought about grabbing Justin Forsett to handcuff my MJD.
What I actually did: I got two of my WRs in Floyd, who should benefit from Bruce Arians' offense and the random occasions that Carson Palmer decides not to throw into triple coverage, and Blackmon, whose suspension devalued him enough to where he's a worthy flier in Round 12. Once Chad Henne took over as the starter in Week 12 last year, Blackmon averaged more than 14 fantasy points a game. I'm not really liking anything I saw in Round 13. I said a more adult version of "what the hell" to myself and grabbed the Ravens defense, which should be even better than last season with more health, and additions such as Elvis Dumervil and Chris Canty.
Things that make you go hmmmm: Not sure there's such a thing as a bad pick once you get here. I will say I liked the upside picks of Randle and Reece (backups to Murray and McFadden, never a bad bet to count on them being out) and I already mentioned Patterson. Seeing guys like Olsen and Cook here reaffirms my belief that you go high on tight end or you wait, wait, wait. A lot of backup quarterbacks were here as well, which makes sense for owners of lower-tier QBs or injury-prone ones, I guess, but with Cam Newton in the fold, Cockcroft doesn't need Flacco.

[h=4]ROUND 14[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	157	WR61	Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind WR	Cockcroft
2	158	TE12	Owen Daniels, Hou TE	Yates
3	159	TE13	Martellus Bennett, Chi TE	Lipscomb
4	160	RB61	Daniel Thomas, Mia RB	Hunter
5	161	QB17	Sam Bradford, StL QB	Quintong
6	162	WR62	Mohamed Massaquoi, Jac WR	Mass
7	163	TE14	Brandon Pettigrew, Det TE	McCormick
8	164	QB18	Andy Dalton, Cin QB	Joyner
9	165	WR63	Aaron Dobson, NE WR	Berry
10	166	TE15	Jake Ballard, NE TE	Karabell
11	167	RB62	Toby Gerhart, Min RB	Gramling
12	168	RB63	Isaac Redman, Pit RB	Harris

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
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[h=4]ROUND 15[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	169	D10	Steelers D/ST	Harris
2	170	K1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE K	Gramling
3	171	D11	Rams D/ST	Karabell
4	172	RB64	Willis McGahee, FA RB	Berry
5	173	QB19	Michael Vick, Phi QB	Joyner
6	174	WR64	Santana Moss, Wsh WR	McCormick
7	175	TE16	Travis Kelce, KC TE	Mass
8	176	RB65	Mike Gillislee, Mia RB	Quintong
9	177	RB66	Mike Goodson, NYJ RB	Hunter
10	178	QB20	Carson Palmer, Ari QB	Lipscomb
11	179	D12	Cowboys D/ST	Yates
12	180	WR65	Jarrett Boykin, GB WR	Cockcroft

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[h=4]ROUND 16[/h]

Pick	Overall	Position	Player	By
1	181	K2	Blair Walsh, Min K	Cockcroft
2	182	K3	Justin Tucker, Bal K	Yates
3	183	K4	Matt Prater, Den K	Lipscomb
4	184	K5	Matt Bryant, Atl K	Hunter
5	185	K6	Sebastian Janikowski, Oak K	Quintong
6	186	K7	Greg Zuerlein, StL K	Mass
7	187	K8	David Akers, Det K	McCormick
8	188	K9	Phil Dawson, SF K	Joyner
9	189	K10	Kai Forbath, Wsh K	Berry
10	190	K11	Randy Bullock, Hou K	Karabell
11	191	QB21	Philip Rivers, SD QB	Gramling
12	192	K12	Josh Brown, NYG K	Harris

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What I was thinking: When's lunch? This is getting long. More of the same. I want one more wideout, one more RB and a kicker.
What I actually did: One more wideout, as Aaron Dobson was still there. Hey, if you're gonna roll the dice on a rookie, why not make it one who has Tom Brady throwing to him, is fast on a team with no other deep threats and is surrounded by injury-prone pass-catchers? Willis McGahee is the best available free-agent running back out there, and he either gets signed by a team and has a nice role between now and the start of the season, or he's my first cut. And that's not just rampant homerism with my Kai Forbath pick. Starting in Week 6, he averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game, a rate that would put him in the top eight of kickers last season.


Overall, I like my team a lot. A lot rides on MJD's health and I wish my WRs were a little stronger, but if there's one position where I'm OK having a deficiency this year, it's WR, especially in a 10- or 12-team league. I have clear-cut advantages almost every week at QB, TE and RB1, and if MJD is back, at RB2. I'll take that.
Things that make you go hmmmm: Three quarterbacks, KC? Really? Ryan, Dalton and Vick? KC responds: "Getting Michael Vick in Round 15 could have been my team's best value pick of the draft. It meant carrying 3 QBs but Vick offers enough trade value and spot-start upside that he was more than worth it."
There you have it, another mock in the books. The important thing is not necessarily what we did or didn't do in any one round, but rather that the mock was a learning exercise. And like any learning exercise, you learn more by doing than by reading about it. So why not jump into a mock draft lobby right now and see what you learn about your draft strategies this year?

[h=1]Fantasy impact of offseason moves[/h][h=3]Amendola, Fitzgerald, Johnson among those with improved supporting casts[/h]By John Parolin | Special to ESPN.com

It was a busy offseason in the NFL, and naturally that brings a change in fantasy fortunes around the league. Narrowing it down to some of the bigger moves as training camps near, let's take a look at the impact some of the movement will have on individual players for the 2013 season.

Welker to Denver, Amendola to New England

Few offseason moves made fantasy waves like Wes Welker's going west. Tom Brady's former security blanket is Peyton Manning's new toy, and the hole Welker left behind in New England is bigger than his 5-foot-9 frame.

Welker was the sixth-best fantasy receiver during his six seasons in New England, and unparalleled in PPR formats. His chemistry with Tom Brady produced five seasons with at least 110 catches, while Danny Amendola is tied for 86th in the past two seasons with 82 standard fantasy points.

Welker will make an impact in Denver, but on whom? And will Amendola even approach Welker's success in New England?

Calling Wes Welker the new Brandon Stokley in Denver might slightly undersell Welker's production. However, when trying to map out Welker's role and fantasy impact on other Broncos receivers, it's a good starting point. Stokley had 57 targets last year, all of which can be penciled in for Welker.

But how much does Welker hurt Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker?


Part of what made Welker so prolific in New England was his short average target depth (7.7 yards downfield, sixth-lowest among 76 qualifying wide receivers). Both Decker (11.4) and Thomas (10.9) were targeted deeper downfield than Welker. Even Stokley had an average target depth of 10.1 yards downfield.

Welker's average target depth will likely increase, but Denver's tight ends are more in line for the hit than Decker and Thomas.

Joel Dreessen had the lowest average target depth (5.6 yards downfield) of any qualified tight end on his 57 targets last year. Jacob Tamme's average target depth was 8.8 yards downfield on 82 targets. Manning targeted tight ends 144 times, averaging 6.8 yards downfield per target. This is a little more in line with Welker's target distance than Decker or Thomas.

Dreessen and Tamme could cede shorter targets to Welker, especially considering the offense Manning is accustomed to running.

The Colts from 2008-10 with Manning ran 2,309 plays out of three-wide receiver sets, 326 more than any other team in the league. The Broncos ran 706 plays from those sets last season, third-most in the league. If Denver uses three-wide receiver sets more often (based on precedent), a reasonable estimate can be reached.

Stokley's 57 will go to Welker, plus a substantial amount (40 of 144) from the tight ends based on target distance and an increase in wide receiver-heavy formations. Even if Welker eats into Decker and Thomas only a little bit -- let's say 30 combined out of last year's 264 -- that leaves 127 targets for Welker, generally high-percentage ones at that.

That would tie him with Marques Colston and Julio Jones for 17th among qualified wide receivers and leave plenty of room for Thomas and Decker to operate.

As for the Patriots, they wasted no time securing Amendola's services, the only player with a shorter average target than Welker among those with at least 200 targets over the past four seasons.

The Patriots will still need that underneath presence. They targeted slot receivers on 38.6 percent of pass plays last season, highest in the league. With Rob Gronkowski's status uncertain and Aaron Hernandez no longer with the team, the slot receiver might play an even more prominent role.

Amendola is no stranger to that role, having worked with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in St. Louis. In fact, Amendola nearly matched Wes Welker's per-game production when lined up in the slot last season.

[h=3]Lining Up in the Slot Last Season, Including Playoffs[/h]* Six on 38 third-down targets


If Amendola can replicate his 2012 drop percentage, it will go a long way toward earning Tom Brady's confidence, which would make fantasy owners very happy. Of course, the other side of per-game production is actually appearing in games.

Amendola played in 30 games in his first two seasons but missed five games last season with a dislocated clavicle. Welker missed three regular-season games in six years with the Patriots. Amendola's injury history is well documented, but Welker is not without his own risk.

Only five wide receivers ever have had 100 catches in a season at or after age 32: Reggie Wayne, Derrick Mason, Jimmy Smith, Ed McCaffrey and Jerry Rice. None of those five players worked out of the slot or over the middle as often as Welker, who also has a surgically reconstructed left knee from a 2010 torn ACL and MCL.

Carson Palmer to Arizona

It has to get better for Larry Fitzgerald, mainly because his quarterback can't really be worse.

The Cardinals are the only team in the past five years to have four different quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks in a season. As a team, the Cardinals posted a Total QBR of 21.4 last season, worst in the league.


Is Carson Palmer an elite quarterback? No. But is he better than Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Lindley? Fitzgerald certainly hopes so. If last season's numbers hold, Palmer alone could be enough to move Fitzgerald from a tie for 40th among wide receivers to 24th, just ahead of Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace in standard formats.

Here are a few ways Fitzgerald's numbers benefit by merely replacing Arizona's 2012 QB du jour with some of Palmer's rates:

• Cardinals quarterbacks flat out missed on 23.2 percent of their throws. Palmer missed on 17.4 percent of his attempts last season, a number that would have afforded Fitzgerald eight more on-target throws, of which he statistically would have caught six for 67 more yards.

• Cards signal-callers were mediocre under pressure, completing 38.6 percent of passes. Palmer's presence (46.9 completion percentage under pressure, fourth-best in NFL), when applied to target rates, creates another three catches for 33 yards for Fitzgerald.

• Cardinals quarterbacks were 0-for-9 last year targeting Fitzgerald in the end zone. Carson Palmer completed 11 of 35 end zone attempts last year. After applying Palmer's rates to Fitzgerald's targets, he gets three more catches (all touchdowns) for 8 yards.

Just adding Palmer at last year's production, Fitzgerald gets an extra 12 catches for 108 yards and three touchdowns, which takes him from 71-798-4 TDs to 83-906-7 and adds 28.8 fantasy points in a normal league and 40.8 extra points in a PPR league.

The methodology isn't flawless, but it gives a small idea of what Palmer can do for Fitzgerald -- to say nothing of the pair of guards Arizona drafted to shore up a terrible offensive line.

A new offensive line in Tennessee

Chris Johnson is not a power runner, ranking last among qualified running backs with 1.2 yards after contact per rush last season. Johnson can't break tackles consistently, leaving the Titans' offensive line under pressure to give the speedster the space he needs to be effective.

Last year, the Tennessee line had mixed results. The Titans averaged 3.6 yards before contact per rush between the tackles, almost a half-yard more than anyone else in the league. However, Johnson was hit behind the line of scrimmage on 19.2 percent of his rushes (53 of 276), worse than 30 of the 43 other qualified rushers last season.

Whether the inconsistent production was the line's fault or a byproduct of Johnson's hesitant running (or both) is open to debate, but the Titans' line was plagued by inconsistency in personnel.

The Titans were one of three teams in 2012 that failed to get at least 700 plays out of an offensive guard (Bears and Seahawks). The closest was 35-year-old Steve Hutchinson, who logged 665 plays before retiring in the offseason.

The Titans invested heavily in improving their interior offensive line. They used the 10th overall pick on guard Chance Warmack from Alabama and picked up center Brian Schwenke from Cal in the fourth round.

Warmack is no stranger to opening up holes for big rushes. Alabama rushers gained at least 10 yards every 5.5 rushes between left guard (Warmack's position) and left tackle last season. Alabama averaged 4.2 yards before contact per rush in that direction.

The Titans also opened the checkbook for former Bills guard Andy Levitre, who signed a five-year, $39 million deal. Levitre's résumé includes time at tackle, center and guard for the Bills, who averaged 4.7 yards per rush with Levitre on the field and 4.1 yards per rush without him.

The average with Levitre would have ranked seventh-best last season, and the average without would have ranked 19th. Just as important, Levitre made all 64 starts in his four years.

The Titans will have holes to run through. The only question remaining is whether Johnson or Shonn Greene will be running through them.

Percy Harvin to Seattle

There are a couple basic ways Percy Harvin's move to the Seahawks will help both him and Russell Wilson.

Seahawks wide receivers averaged 3.7 yards after the catch per reception last year, 28th in the league. Harvin more than doubled that average in 2012, averaging 8.5 yards after the catch per reception. That's the highest average in the past three seasons. Seattle had one 30-yard play on a throw fewer than 10 yards downfield last season (Harvin alone has three in the past two seasons).


Statistically, the Christian Ponder-to-Wilson upgrade also appears substantial. Wilson missed (over or underthrown) on 14.4 percent of his total attempts, trailing only Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. Ponder ranked 18th in that category (19.5 percent).

Another interesting angle is what Harvin might be able to do with more deep targets. Harvin received so many targets near the line of scrimmage out of necessity. Ponder missed on 55 percent of throws deeper than 20 yards downfield (30th of 32), almost twice as often as Wilson (28 percent). The only quarterback to miss on a lower percentage of throws than Wilson was Brees.

In his career with Ponder, Harvin has one catch on six targets for 39 yards (6.9 yards per target) and a touchdown on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield. When Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb or Joe Webb targeted Harvin downfield, they were 12-of-29 for 433 yards (14.9 yards per target) and four touchdowns.

Ponder targeted Harvin downfield every 24.0 attempts, while Favre/McNabb/Webb tried it every 8.7 attempts. Wilson isn't afraid to throw downfield, either, averaging a 20-plus-yard attempt every 6.7 passes. Harvin's new situation might result in more chances downfield with a quarterback twice as likely to put those passes on target.

Saved by the Bell?

Le'Veon Bell gained 921 yards after contact in 2012, most among players from schools in BCS conferences. Bell gained more than half of his rushing yards after contact, a quality the Steelers hope will translate to the NFL. If it doesn't, Bell is going to be in a real tough situation.

The Steelers' offensive line averaged 1.7 yards before contact per rush, the lowest average in the league and a full yard below the league average. When rushing inside the tackles (Bell's specialty), the Steelers were even worse.

Pittsburgh averaged 1.6 yards before contact on rushes inside the tackles, one of only two teams below 2.0 and two full yards below the league-leading Tennessee Titans (3.6). The Steelers' only offseason addition was former Jaguars backup tackle Guy Whimper, and Pittsburgh was one of six teams to not draft an offensive lineman.

A closer look at Bell's stats doesn't help his case. Bell gained 632 rushing yards and seven touchdowns against four opponents that ranked 90th or worse in rushing among FBS schools (Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Indiana). Bell averaged 5.0 yards per rush against those schools, which would have ranked fifth among NFL running backs last season.

Bell also faced four defenses in the Top 25 in rush yards allowed last season (Notre Dame, Ohio State, Northwestern and TCU). Bell averaged a full yard fewer per carry and had one touchdown against those defenses, a closer representation to the caliber of tackling he'll face this season.

Bell's 4.0 yards per rush against the better competition would have ranked 23rd among NFL running backs, one spot ahead of now-teammate Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer had the fifth-best yards after contact per rush among qualified running backs (2.1), a quality that didn't stop him from ranking 41st among running backs in fantasy points.

Manage expectations around Bell, who shares Dwyer's physical running style and might eventually share his production. He'll likely get rushes right away, but he's no Alfred Morris.

[h=1]Time to reconsider Brady?[/h][h=3]How does Patriots' tumultuous offseason affect star quarterback's value?[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Should Tom Brady's fantasy value be dramatically reassessed?

I've always thought the expression "blind faith" was redundant. It seems to me that the moment faith isn't blind -- the moment we can see proof -- it stops being faith. In politics, in religion, in relationships and, yes, in sports, to believe without tangible evidence is by definition a faith act. You choose to accept, and a mountain of contraindications won't sway you.

Perhaps that's where I am with Tom Brady. I continue to contend that Brady deserves to be considered an ultra-elite NFL signal-caller and a top-three fantasy QB, despite an incredibly bad offseason for the New England Patriots.

I'll discuss the reasons for my faith in a moment. But first, let's summarize Brady's potential problems. In 2012, he had 401 completions for 4,827 yards and 34 TDs. The receivers he lost this offseason (primarily Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead) accounted for 310 catches, 3,608 yards and 19 TDs. That's incredible. Of the 654 standard ESPN fantasy points Brady produced for his pass-catchers on passing plays alone, 429 of them (that's almost exactly two-thirds) were scored by men who won't play for the Pats this year. Between free-agent defections, criminal charges and decisions not to renew contracts, New England has to replace about two-thirds of its receiving firepower in a single offseason.

And how will they do so? They'll hope Danny Amendola, a talented player who has missed 20 of his past 32 NFL games because of injury, can assume their top wide receiver job. They'll hope Rob Gronkowski is healthy enough after offseason back surgery (and four surgeries to repair his broken forearm) to contribute right away. They'll hope that Aaron Dobson is ready to become the first Patriots rookie wideout to become a meaningful contributor in the Brady Era. (Deion Branch was the most successful first-year wideout Brady ever had, and in '02 he caught 43 passes for 489 yards and two TDs.) They'll hope that Julian Edelman will stay healthy for the first time in his five-year NFL career, and that Jake Ballard will return after an ACL-induced year off.

That, friends, is a lot of hoping.


Is it still possible that the Pats could pull a free-agent rabbit out of their hat? Well, they could re-sign the 32-year-old Lloyd, but currently seem uninterested in doing so. (A few training-camp weeks of drops could change their mind.) A reunion with Randy Moss certainly isn't happening. Maybe Laurent Robinson, Brandon Stokley or Steve Breaston? Robinson and Stokley could be options, but they're both so concussion-prone that they'd be hard to count on; Breaston has battled knee troubles for a couple of seasons. Maybe Branch? (Yuck.) In other words, the solution probably isn't languishing off an NFL roster. Could they trade for a free-agent-to-be such as Golden Tate or Jeremy Maclin, should those players' respective teams decide their WR depth looks good? It's possible, but considering how infrequently NFL trades of significance go down, we shouldn't count on it. So the current depth chart, which also includes Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones, Lavelle Hawkins and rookie Josh Boyce, probably will have to suffice.

Brady pessimists also will point out that during the Pats' Super Bowl years, Tom Terrific didn't produce at an elite level. In his three Super-Bowl-winning seasons, his average stat line was 19-of-31 for 220 yards, 1.5 TDs and 0.8 INTs. (Since '07, his average stat line has been 24-of-36 for 290 yards, 2.3 TDs and 0.5 INTs.) In other words, when the Pats were at their absolute best, Brady's numbers routinely looked like Ryan Fitzpatrick's. Between '01, '03 and '04, Brady had exactly one receiver with more than 57 grabs in a single year (Troy Brown had 101 in '01). David Givens, David Patten, Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria, Kevin Faulk ... these were not elite weapons, and the Patriots were a running team, ranking eighth, 12th and fifth in rush attempts in those three seasons, respectively. Finally, in those three years, Brady ranked 19th, 10th and 11th among fantasy QBs. Worry warts among us have nightmares that Brady could return to such depths.

I'm not one of them. A decade later, the NFL has changed, and so have Brady and the New England offense.

First of all, I don't envision a case where this club goes appreciably more "ground-and-pound" than they did in '12, when they were second in rush attempts and seventh in rushing yards. And rushers already have siphoned off a league-high 119 TDs from New England's high-octane passing attack since '07. When giving reasons for a potential Brady breakdown, "they're going to run it way more" doesn't persuade me.

Nor can I see this team, in today's pass-happy NFL with Bill Belichick as coach and Josh McDaniels as coordinator, taking its foot off the pedal. Even with the execrable St. Louis Rams in '11, McDaniels directed an attack that finished 16th in pass attempts despite finishing 30th and 32nd in passing yards and TDs, respectively. (You can argue some of that occurred because "they were behind all the time," but in light of McDaniels' pass-happiness as a playcaller everywhere else he has been, I'm not buying.) I believe you can draw a straight line between the emergence of McDaniels as Brady's coordinator in '06, and the redefinition of New England's offense as a monolithic passing enterprise in '07.

And remember, in the past three seasons (or: since Moss left), New England's hasn't been a downfield attack. In that span, Brady is 18th in attempts of 20-plus air yards per game, among the 32 QBs who've started at least 20 games. That's mostly been because of an emphasis on Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez, and it doesn't imply that it has somehow been easier to accomplish because of its lack of downfield strikes; this offense obviously requires tremendous precision and chemistry. But it doesn't require great outside receivers. In other words, if Dobson is only so-so and everyone else on the outside crashes and burns, I don't think that would represent Brady's downfall. The keys are Amendola, Gronkowski, Edelman and Ballard.

And I suppose here's where the faith comes in. I'm not one who believes Gronk will go on the PUP list and be unavailable until Week 7. Could he miss a game or two? It's possible. But I honestly can't believe the Patriots would've delayed his back surgery if they weren't fairly sure he'd be on pace to contribute early. That may qualify as a naïve belief, but I suppose there's that pesky faith rearing its head. Similarly, I contend that Amendola, while risky, isn't as toxic as someone like Darren McFadden or Jonathan Stewart. It's foolish to ignore his recent injury history, but he hasn't dealt with a continual series of strains and pulls: He has dislocated an elbow and his clavicle. Could that mean his skeleton is somehow incompatible with playing in the NFL? Maybe. But it doesn't take a massive leap to envision him becoming Welker Plus, a versatile slot player with more deep speed than the departed Wes. As for Edelman and Ballard? I have less faith in them, but it's important to realize that before he broke his hand in Week 3 last year, Edelman was playing ahead of Welker.

I understand the doubters. When you have to paint an involved picture to come up with a rosy ending -- if this happens, and this happens, and this happens, Brady will be fine! -- drafting that player gets scary. And when you compare Brady to someone such as Peyton Manning, who appears to have an all-world receiving corps in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Welker, I understand the temptation to draft Peyton instead. (Heck, ESPN's group QB ranks have recently made just this switch.) But I believe. I see enough potential in the Patriots' inside targets that I believe Brady will scarcely miss a beat, and will repeat a season in which he outdid Manning despite a nearly flawless return by the Sheriff. (And I believe it's also naïve to look at Peyton's December '12 game film and not worry about a 37-year-old with a fused vertebrae and other bulging discs.) Anyway, while I understand that a risk-averse fantasy owner might rather choose Manning over Brady, I don't think it's any kind of no-brainer. I still have Brady at No. 3 in my ranks, and Manning at No. 5.

Of course, I freely acknowledge that such a ranking requires faith.

Harris' fantasy football rankings

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com


Christopher Harris' Top 200 for 2013