| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -6.30 |
| Last 30 Days | 38 | 41 | 0.00 | +3.14 |
| Season to Date | 38 | 41 | 0.00 | +3.14 |
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MILWAUKEE -1½ +156 over Pittsburgh
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]ames McDonald’s xERA tells us that his terrific first half from a year ago was never as good as it looked. His second half was a crash back down to earth. McDonald is still young enough to have success but has yet to show consistent control needed to be a quality starter. McDonald has started the season in his normal state of extreme inconsistency. He already has issued 15 walks in 25 innings and with men on base, McDonald has been brutally awful with a .298 oppBA, a .365 OBP, a .571 slugging % and a gaudy .875 OPS. McDonald takes on the Brewers here, a team who he faced three times last season and got bombed in twice. He has always struggled on the road, where in his career he has a 5.35 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 232.1 IP. His numbers against the Brewers are even worse than that, 6.98 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 29.2 IP.
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The Brewers proved once again last night that they are a different team at home. At Miller Park, Milwaukee has scored 67 runs in 13 games as opposed to 39 runs scored on the road in 11 games. They pounded out another 10 runs on 13 hits last night in the opener. Marco Estrada has struck out 28 batters in 30 frames while walking just six. He’s also inducing more groundballs this year than he has in previous years and he’s on the verge of elite status. The guy is legit and has owned these Pirates hitters with a .190 BAA in 100 career AB’s. Brewers roll again. [/FONT]
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Washington +102 over ATLANTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Gio Gonzlez and his 4.50 ERA after five starts is a serious buy low candidate. In 28 frames, Gonzalez has struck out 27 to go along with a 51% groundball rate and an elite 17% line-drive rate. Gonzalez has been hurt by an unlucky and very low 62% strand rate. Once that normalizes, his ERA will dip much closer to his 2.84 xERA over his past three starts. These are the skills of a top notch pitcher and now we get the benefit of a small tag on him due to his misleading ERA.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Tim Hudson is 2-1 in five starts with a 4.50 ERA with very much the same surface stats as his mound opponent here. However, unlike Gonzalez, the value Hudson provides on the surface is slowly eroding. His strikeout rate drop in the second half of last year was the first warning sign. Two straight years of fastball decline, to a sub-90 mph suggests he might not get it back. xERA warns that first 4.00+ ERA since '06 is on the horizon. With a pedestrian 1.36 WHIP over his last 18 starts dating back to last year and including five starts this season, Hudson is middle-rotation filler now and that provides us an opportunity to cash on Hudson’s past reputation.[/FONT]
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Colorado +117 over LOS ANGELES
[FONT=arial !important]T[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]he Rockies bats are too hot to ignore taking back a tag against the weak hitting lineup of the Dodgers. Colorado came in here last night and absolutely rocked left-handed starter Ted Lilly. Colorado is scoring runs both at home and on the road, where they have a NL best team batting average of .284 away from home. Jorge de la Rosa was a power arm capable of piling up big strikeout totals before being derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2011. When he finally took the mound again last September, the results weren't pretty but some extensive off-season conditioning and consecutive strong starts suggest he could be on to something here. De La Rosa is coming off back-to-back games at Coors Field and Chase Field against the D-Backs in which he threw 12 frames and surrendered just 12 hits and two earned runs. In his last start he induced 14 grounders against just seven fly-ball outs. Over his last four starts, De La Rosa has pitched six full innings in all of them and all four were of the quality variety.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Hyun-Jin Ryu has made a seamless transition from Korea to MLB so far in 2013. He has a 3.41 ERA and 1.20 WHIP after five starts. What Ryu lacks in velocity (90 mph fastball), he makes up for in his pitch mix. He throws three separate pitches at least 15% of the time. His change-up has been his best pitch. Batters have a .206 BA and .294 SLG % against it. The lefty Ryu has been good against RH bats too. Ryu’s lack of velocity, his reliance on his changeup and his fly-ball tilt (42%) make him more of a risk than his surface stats suggest. Now that the films on him have circulated and hitters get to study him more, his value is likely to go down. The time to sell high on Ryu is now.
Hoping to turn things around tonight.....on a current 0-6 run.....[/FONT][/FONT]
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