| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +4.52 |
| Last 30 Days | 38 | 40 | 0.00 | +6.96 |
| Season to Date | 41 | 43 | 0.00 | +6.78 |
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All plays are for 2 units.
MILWAUKEE/St. Louis 8½ -106
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Wily Peralta has started five games and comes in with a 5.02 ERA and a xERA of 4.40. Peralta has faced the Rockies, Giants, the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine and the Cubbies on two occasions. All of those teams with the exception of the Rockies were running cold offensively when they faced Peralta. At Miller Park, Peralta has an ERA of 6.19 in three starts. Peralta spent most of last season in AAA ball, where he was walking too many hitters. In the majors this year, Peralta has walked 12 and struck out 15 in 28.2 frames, while surrendering 30 hits for a BAA of .270. At Miller Park, the Rockies tagged Peralta for four runs in 5.1 frames and this assignment against the Cardinals is likely going to be just as rough. Also consider that the Brewers bullpen will see some action and when you wager on Brewers games to go under the last thing you want to hear is “there’s activity in the bullpen”.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
With an ERA under 1.00, Jake Westbrook appears as though he is having a great season. He is, on the surface but under the hood tells a completely different story. First, control has been a major issue, where Westbrook has 14 walks (and 14 K’s) in 29 innings. An unsustainable 92% strand rate has also helped in masking Westbroook’s deficiencies. Westbrook now faces the Brewers at Miller Park, who are not fun to face at home, as they have the fifth highest team OPS at home (.805). Hitters are thriving at Miller Park this season. A just completed three-game set there between the Pirates and Crew produced 44 runs. Of the 15 games played at Miller Park this season, the winning team has scored six runs or more nine of them. Take out three games against the Cubs and that number would be nine of 12 games. A Low number, two very good offenses, two pedestrian starters and at least one bullpen that implodes more often than not has us stepping in with confidence. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important][/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Baltimore +106 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]A rebound last season from an injury-ravaged 2011 didn't clear up the mystery of the perpetual disconnect between Joe Blanton’s skills and results. Do you trust the bests/near bests for control, strikeout rate and groundballs induced last season or are you held back by the repeated ERA/xERA gaps, hr/f and strand issues? Well, if you trust that Blanton is just off to a slow start like the rest of the Angels, we’re here to put your mind at ease that Joe Blanton is a pitcher in big trouble. Blanton’s strikeout rate and swinging strike rate is in free-fall mode. In fact, he’s only struck out 13 batters in 26.2 innings and the Angels are 0-5 in his starts. Blanton has a 2.10 WHIP and a .379 BAA after allowing 47 hits in those 26.2 frames. Blanton does not catch a break here facing the Orioles, who are third in baseball in runs scored. Blanton has made seven career starts versus Baltimore, in which he is 2-2 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 42 IP and that’s when he was getting people out.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Chris Tillman went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 86 for the Orioles last year. Tillman suddenly found his way out of the woods, guided by velocity gains, newfound control and great progress versus lefties. His xERA doesn't buy that he's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher just yet, but the skills say he's right on the cusp and he appears to be getting progressively stronger with each passing start. Tillman followed up a 6.1, four-hit gem against the Blue Jays with six-inning quality start against Oakland. The Orioles are 2-0 in Tillman’s last two starts, they’re 7-2 in Tillman’s last nine road starts and they are 8-3 in Tillman’s last 11 starts on grass. Better pitcher, better offense, better bullpen, better form and a tag makes this choice an easy one.
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MILWAUKEE/St. Louis 8½ -106
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Wily Peralta has started five games and comes in with a 5.02 ERA and a xERA of 4.40. Peralta has faced the Rockies, Giants, the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine and the Cubbies on two occasions. All of those teams with the exception of the Rockies were running cold offensively when they faced Peralta. At Miller Park, Peralta has an ERA of 6.19 in three starts. Peralta spent most of last season in AAA ball, where he was walking too many hitters. In the majors this year, Peralta has walked 12 and struck out 15 in 28.2 frames, while surrendering 30 hits for a BAA of .270. At Miller Park, the Rockies tagged Peralta for four runs in 5.1 frames and this assignment against the Cardinals is likely going to be just as rough. Also consider that the Brewers bullpen will see some action and when you wager on Brewers games to go under the last thing you want to hear is “there’s activity in the bullpen”.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
With an ERA under 1.00, Jake Westbrook appears as though he is having a great season. He is, on the surface but under the hood tells a completely different story. First, control has been a major issue, where Westbrook has 14 walks (and 14 K’s) in 29 innings. An unsustainable 92% strand rate has also helped in masking Westbroook’s deficiencies. Westbrook now faces the Brewers at Miller Park, who are not fun to face at home, as they have the fifth highest team OPS at home (.805). Hitters are thriving at Miller Park this season. A just completed three-game set there between the Pirates and Crew produced 44 runs. Of the 15 games played at Miller Park this season, the winning team has scored six runs or more nine of them. Take out three games against the Cubs and that number would be nine of 12 games. A Low number, two very good offenses, two pedestrian starters and at least one bullpen that implodes more often than not has us stepping in with confidence. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important][/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Baltimore +106 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]A rebound last season from an injury-ravaged 2011 didn't clear up the mystery of the perpetual disconnect between Joe Blanton’s skills and results. Do you trust the bests/near bests for control, strikeout rate and groundballs induced last season or are you held back by the repeated ERA/xERA gaps, hr/f and strand issues? Well, if you trust that Blanton is just off to a slow start like the rest of the Angels, we’re here to put your mind at ease that Joe Blanton is a pitcher in big trouble. Blanton’s strikeout rate and swinging strike rate is in free-fall mode. In fact, he’s only struck out 13 batters in 26.2 innings and the Angels are 0-5 in his starts. Blanton has a 2.10 WHIP and a .379 BAA after allowing 47 hits in those 26.2 frames. Blanton does not catch a break here facing the Orioles, who are third in baseball in runs scored. Blanton has made seven career starts versus Baltimore, in which he is 2-2 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 42 IP and that’s when he was getting people out.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Chris Tillman went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 86 for the Orioles last year. Tillman suddenly found his way out of the woods, guided by velocity gains, newfound control and great progress versus lefties. His xERA doesn't buy that he's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher just yet, but the skills say he's right on the cusp and he appears to be getting progressively stronger with each passing start. Tillman followed up a 6.1, four-hit gem against the Blue Jays with six-inning quality start against Oakland. The Orioles are 2-0 in Tillman’s last two starts, they’re 7-2 in Tillman’s last nine road starts and they are 8-3 in Tillman’s last 11 starts on grass. Better pitcher, better offense, better bullpen, better form and a tag makes this choice an easy one.
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