Best Kentucky Derby Value Bets

[h=1]Best Kentucky Derby value bets[/h][h=3]Revolutionary among six horses that offer the best value on Saturday[/h]
By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider


In horse racing, one of the best betting days of the year is the first Saturday in May when the Kentucky Derby rolls around. The first leg of the Triple Crown, the Derby is the only race in which 20 horses can run -- which presents great opportunities and value. Over the past 10 years, the post-time favorite has had average odds of just over 5-1. Favorites have not performed well in the Kentucky Derby, as the average odds for the winning horse in the past 20 years is 16.25-1.


This year, a lot of the betting focus will be on Orb (No. 16, 7-2 morning line favorite) and Verrazano (No. 14, 4-1 morning line). The former has won four in a row and by all accounts has trained superbly at Churchill Downs. In addition, jockey Joel Rosario is one of the top riders in the country.


Verrazano, who is a perfect 4-for-4, comes from the powerhouse barn of trainer Todd Pletcher and has had plenty of time to acclimate to the Churchill Downs racing surface.


Plenty of horses offer great value and appear to have a realistic to shot to win the Run for the Roses. Here are my six best value bets for the Kentucky Derby:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013 Kentucky Derby odds[/h]


<!-- end inline 1 -->Revolutionary (No. 3, morning line 10-1) -- It seems that every year there is always a great amount of pressure on Pletcher to win the Run for the Roses. The former assistant to Hall of Fame conditioner D. Wayne Lukas has been among the best in racing for years, and this horse presents a good value.

<OFFER>Revolutionary is entering the Derby with a three-race winning streak, which only two other horses can boast (both of those are the favorites), and he gets a new jockey in the form of newly minted Hall of Famer Calvin Borel. The duo teamed up for Pletcher's first Derby victory in 2010 with Super Saver.


Borel has also been one of the hottest riders in the Derby (he has won three of the past six) and knows Churchill Downs as well as any rider in the field. You can be sure Borel will place the horse along the "Borail" as soon as he can to give him the best chance to win. Also, the colt has been training well at Churchill since he arrived a couple of weeks ago.


Normandy Invasion (No. 5, morning line 12-1) -- Although he has only one victory to his credit, the namesake of the famous World War II Allied invasion has been improving with every start.


He finished second to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial last month after getting bumped shortly after the start of the race. In fact, both of his efforts this year have been far from trouble-free. It is hard to avoid trouble altogether in the Kentucky Derby. But if this talented horse -- who has also trained well at Churchill Downs -- can avoid any mishaps, he should have a good shot at a square price.


Overanalyze (No. 9, morning line 15-1) -- Another horse from the powerful Pletcher stable has won four of seven starts, with his most impressive victory coming in his last race, the Arkansas Derby.


The reason his Arkansas victory stands out is that he had a tough trip and still managed to pull away for a 4.5-length victory. He retains the services of jockey Rafael Bejarano, one of the top riders in Southern California, and beat Normandy Invasion late last year.

Overanalyze should not be far off the lead in the early going of the Derby and should be able to steer clear of a lot of trouble.


Itsmyluckyday (No. 12, morning line 15-1) -- Earlier in the year, this colt was one of the favorites for the Derby after winning two in a row, but he was immediately overshadowed after losing to Orb in the Florida Derby.


But when you look objectively at his record, there are a lot of things to like. Itsmyluckyday has won half of his races (5-for-10) and has had no problem running well no matter what track he has run on. (He has won races at three different tracks.) Also, if the track does come up sloppy, that shouldn't be a problem.


The key for him is not getting caught too wide on both turns since he is starting toward the outside, but he should be near the front as they turn for home.


Java's War (No. 19, morning line 15-1) -- This is a horse that can drive you nuts when you bet him because he usually drops right to the back of the pack shortly after the start and makes one huge run at the end.

For a horse to make that one run late in a race takes a lot of luck, and he'll fall short many times because of the potential traffic. Java's War finally put it all together in the Blue Grass last time as he went from last to first and got up in the final strides to win.

The worry in the Derby is that he could fall too far behind, but he will have the benefit of a lot of horses getting tired down the long quarter-mile Churchill Downs home stretch. Another advantage for this colt is that Churchill is his home track, so he is very familiar with his surroundings.


Frac Daddy (No. 18, morning line 50-1) -- There always seems to be one real long shot that gets in the mix, and this colt has a shot to be a big spoiler Saturday.

He has won just once in six starts, but his worst two races were both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. If you discount those races, he hasn't finished worse than second, and his lone career win is at Churchill Downs.

His last race was a good second place to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby, and Frac Daddy is another horse that calls Churchill Downs his home. And, as a bonus, if it does rain, he has a second-place effort in the mud at Belmont Park last year to his name.

[h=1]A lot to keep track of in the Derby[/h][h=3]Favored Orb draws attention, but don't lose sight of Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary[/h]
By Amanda Duckworth | Special to ESPN.com

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- All week, one name keeps coming up when you ask the required "Who's your Kentucky Derby pick?"
Orb.
Given that he was installed as the 7-2 morning-line favorite, that isn't overly surprising. Still, usually a few other names get thrown around, too. Of course, my polling was informal and maybe I asked the exact right/wrong people, but still there is a lot to like about the colt.
Orb comes in riding a four-race win streak, including victories in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. He's looked good every time he's set foot on the Churchill Downs track, and it is hard to knock him.
The classy runner also sports a pedigree that suggests 1¼ miles should be no issue. One of his grandfathers, Unbridled, took the 1990 Kentucky Derby, while the other, A.P. Indy, won the 1992 Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic.
"I'd love to be the favorite because the favorite's going to have something under his name that makes him the favorite," Orb's Hall of Fame trainer, Shug McGaughey, said. "I wish every one of my horses was favorite. They're not all going to win, I understand that, but I'm on board with that."

In short, Orb would be a deserving Derby favorite, and few would bat an eye if he crosses the wire in front.
However, from a betting standpoint, that's not much fun.
Itsmyluckyday is one horse that's caught my eye every morning this week. In his last start, he was outraced to the wire by Orb in the Florida Derby and finished second. That is probably the reason he was installed at 15-1 here.
History is littered with horses that didn't do their best in the race directly prior to the Derby and then ended up in the winner's circle on the first Saturday of May.
Ten years ago, Empire Maker was the horse with the regal pedigree from the power stable. In his final race before the Derby, Empire Maker defeated Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial, and he went off as the Derby favorite at 2-1. Meanwhile, Funny Cide went off at 12-1.
When they hit the wire, Funny Cide had reversed his fortunes and walked away with the roses. Empire Maker had to settle for second.
Could Itsmyluckyday do the same thing on Saturday? Maybe. He has won five of his 10 starts, and his pedigree implies that the Derby distance should be attainable for him. Nice horses get overlooked every year simply because of the size of the Derby field. Plus, Itsmyluckyday has won on an off track, but more on that later.
Incidentally, the horse that won this year's Wood Memorial, Verrazano, will likely go off as the second choice and had his odds set at 4-1. The horse that ran second to him at Aqueduct, Normandy Invasion, was marked down at 12-1.
Orb and Verrazano have long been at the head of their class and deserve the accolades they are receiving. That said, so many horses are progressing at this point in the spring, the true value might be found in those that have kept up with but not been able to beat the big boys. Yet.
One other word that has come up repeatedly this week is a dreaded one for any outdoor sporting event: rain. This seemingly is an issue every year just by the nature of the Derby being run in early May.
Until a horse is asked to run on a sloppy track, you don't really know how he will take to it, although Vyjack and Itsmyluckyday have posted stakes victories on off tracks.

I have two additional thoughts on the possibility of an off track. First, Palace Malice might be one to look to. He's run a good second on a sloppy track and was sired by Curlin, whose Breeders' Cup Classic win at Monmouth Park in 2007 came over the sloppiest of sloppy tracks.
Also, Calvin Borel has ridden three Derby winners. Two of them were over sloppy tracks. His mount this year is Revolutionary.
For those without the time or desire to do hard-core studying, the most fun I think you can have is by picking a long shot. A $2 win bet on a 50-1 shot goes a long way when the horse wins.
(If you are wondering who my long shot is this year, I still don't have one. I will keep an eye on the tote board and make that decision sometime Saturday afternoon.)
If you are picking a long shot, sound betting strategy usually has to be put aside. Year in and year out, the Derby can make even the experts look a bit foolish. Unless you make your living from gambling, the best suggestion I can give is to have fun with it.
Pick a horse that you like. Favorite number? Sure. Has a cool name? Why not. Reminds you of your crazy Uncle Sal somehow? Do it.
In the end, it is a much better story if you pick the 47-1 shot that wins rather than the 2-1 horse that does the same. Even if you did like him for a reason you don't really want to tell people about.

Kentucky Derby betting: Capping the live long shots
By DOC' S SPORTS

If you’ve been sucking back those $1,000 mint juleps at the Kentucky Derby, you had better hope your long-shot bet came. Here are three dark-horse horses that could give the favorites a run for their money at the 139th Run for the Roses.

Oxbow (30/1)

Looking at the connections for the horse is like taking a trip down memory lane. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Gary Stevens won the Kentucky Derby in 1988 aboard the great filly Winning Colors, and did it again in 1995 with Thunder Gulch.

Lukas is 77 and well past his prime now, and Stevens is just coming back from a long retirement due to knee issues. They have mountains of experience but can they recapture past glory?

Oxbow has had horrific racing luck in his last two outings and was very flat in the Arkansas Derby. He’s bred to run forever, though, and Stevens should have him in a better position early in the race than he did last time out.

He’s also looked very good training at Churchill Downs over the past week. At this price, he only has to catch a piece of the action to make you happy. And, at his best, he’s good enough to do that.

Palace Malice (20/1)

Like Oxbow, this horse is bred to run forever. He is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. Also like Oxbow, he was inexplicably awful in his key prep race at the Louisiana Derby. That seventh-place showing was so bad that trainer Todd Pletcher altered his plans and ran the horse back two weeks later in the Blue Grass. He was dramatically better, finishing second.

The biggest knock against Palace Malice is that he has just one win - a maiden race last August. Before the Louisiana Derby, though, he was taking big strides forward with each outing. He’s a slowly-maturing horse who has a lot left to give and could be getting ready to reach a new peak at Churchill Downs.

Java’s War (15/1)

Unlike the previous two, this horse has some breeding questions. Sire War Pass can produce quality, but he isn’t yet proven on long distances like the Kentucky Derby. That’s not a critical blow for Java’s War, but it is a concern.

The horse won the Blue Grass last time out but that race is on a synthetic surface at Keeneland, so it doesn’t mean that much. What is impressive is the second-place finish in his previous outing in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was only beaten by Verrazano and finished very strong.

His biggest issue is that he tends to be lazy out of the gate, digging a hole he struggles to climb out of. If jockey Julien Leparoux can get the horse’s heart pumping earlier - and the chaos and excitement of the Derby should help with that - then this horse could be dangerous.
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Kentucky Derby betting: Horse-by-horse preview and picks
By BILL CLOUTIER

Two trail blazers will try to make history in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Rosie Napravnik rides Mylute trying to become the first woman to win the race and Kevin Krigger looks to become the first African-American jockey to win the Run for the Roses in over a century.

Here's a look at Saturday's 19-horse field and the Kentucky Derby odds after the No. 1 horse, Black Onyx, was scratched:

2. Oxbow (Jockey-G. Stevens) 30-1

Ran a dismal fifth as the second choice in the Arkansas Derby. Lacked the gate speed and really didn't close well either.

3. Revolutionary (C. Borel) 10-1

Three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel makes this one a legitimate threat. Revolutionary has won three straight, including a gritty effort in the Louisiana Derby.

4. Golden Soul (R. Albarado) 50-1

Had a rough trip finishing fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Is a hard-working colt but barely drew into the field and doesn’t figure to be in the mix.

5. Normandy Invasion (J. Castellano) 12-1

All the signs point to a major effort from this one. He’s in fine form and Castellano chose to ride him over Revolutionary.

6. Mylute (R. Napravnik) 15-1

Reunited with Napravnik, who was aboard in Mylute's last win in an allowance race at Fair Grounds, he was heavily raced as a two year old. Trainer Tom Amoss said he lacks the killer instinct but he's been improving and a threat to hit the board.

7. Giant Finish (J. Espinoza) 50-1

Figures to be the longest shot on the board. Didn't have the speed to take the lead at 23-1 in a Grade III event last time out. Pass.

8. Goldencents (K. Krigger) 5-1

How's this for a daily double? Louisville coach Rick Pitino will try to become the first coach to win an NCAA basketball title and the Kentucky Derby in the same year. Trainer Doug O'Neill won the race last year with I'll Have Another.

9. Overanalyze (R. Bejarano) 15-1

Was a bit rank in winning the Arkansas Derby and had to survive a claim of foul in the race but it was still an impressive performance.

10. Palace Malice (M. Smith) 20-1

Could move up on an off track. He’s bred for the distance and has worked well. By Curlin and adds blinkers. He’ll get a call at some time in the race.

11. Lines of Battle (R. Moore) 30-1

Trained in Ireland by Aidan O'Brien, he’s shown he can get the distance but he’s loaded with so many other variables. Has never raced on dirt and has run just once this year.

12. Itsmyluckyday (E. Trujillo) 15-1

Has the second-best Beyer speed figure in the race and was a solid second to favorite Orb in the Florida Derby. Figures to be there, maybe second.

13. Falling Sky (L. Saez) 50-1

After relinquishing the lead in the Arkansas Derby, this one dug back in and reclaimed the edge before fading in the stretch. Figures to set the pace again here.

14. Verrazano (J. Velazquez) 4-1

One of five horses trainer Todd Pletcher will saddle in the race. No horse that didn’t run as a two year old has won the Kentucky Derby since 1882, but Verrazano has won all four of his starts including a game effort as the well-bet favorite in the Wood Memorial.

15. Charming Kitten (E. Prado) 20-1

The fact that this one has never run on a dirt track before raises a red flag. Works weren't bad but there are too many questions to recommend.

16. Orb (J. Rosario) 7-2

Shug McGaughey star was installed as the morning-line favorite after winning each of his three races this season. Has the hottest jockey in the sport aboard and, while the post is unfavorable, his workouts are certainly sharp. McGaughey has never won the Kentucky Derby and said if his horse can get a clean trip to the first turn he can win it. If...

17. Will Take Charge (J. Court) 20-1

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas last won the Kentucky Derby with Charismatic in 1999. Has the game passed him by? The No. 17 horse has never won the Derby.

18. Frac Daddy (V. Lebron) 50-1

Was no match for Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby despite a good run toward the front. The added distance in the Kentucky Derby could prove costly.

19. Java's War (J. Leparoux) 15-1

Has tactical speed but may choose to unleash his solid stretch run here. Has won three of his seven races and was a fine second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby.

20. Vyjack (G. Gomez) 15-1

Colt has been under 24-hour surveillance after three of trainer Rudy Rodriguez's horses have tested positive for a banned substance in the past year. He must be related to A-Rod. Vyjack doesn't have the pedigree.

Picks: Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Normandy Invasion

139TH KENTUCKY DERBY

Last weekend, the 2013 Road to the Kentucky Derby came to an end with the Grade 3 Derby Trial from Churchill Downs. Super trainer, Todd Pletcher was at it again with two more of his horses finishing first and second.

Forty Tales started strong and didn’t relent as he beat his stablemate, Capo Bastone by a neck. While Forty Tales earned 20 points for his efforts, it’s not yet known if he’ll entertain millions in the Derby on a week’s rest.

Regardless, Pletcher should be satisfied. He has five horses in the Derby field thus far and could have a sixth as the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports nears. Pletcher’s best hope at the first jewel in the Triple Crown lies with Verrazano, who has never lost a race in four career starts. His most recent victory came in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes where he beat fellow Derby contenders Normandy Invasion and Vyjack.

As a possible dark horse among the top-20 thoroughbreds, Falling Sky is capable of shocking the world and galloping to victory on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs.

He’s sired by Lion Heart who had five wins and three second-place finishes – including the 2004 Kentucky Derby – in 10 career starts. Falling Sky certainly has the pedigree to make a mark in the Run for the Roses, but he’ll need more than pedigree alone to do so.

Post - Horse Trainer - ML Odds - Points - Earnings - Comments

1.- Black Onyx - K. Breen - 50/1 50 $407,810 (Scratched from the Race)

Three first places finishes and a second place showing in only five career starts for this colt.

2.- Oxbow - D. Wayne Lukas - 30/1 36 $316,000

A first, second and a fourth place finish this year for the colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

3.- Revolutionary - T. Pletcher - 10/1 110 $188,500

Ran to a first place finish in his most recent outing, the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct.

4.- Golden Soul - Dallas Stewart - 50/1 14 $117,400

Ran to a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent outing.

5.- Normandy Invasion - C. Brown - 12/1 44 $100,240

Ran to a fifth place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes.

6.- Mylute - T. Amoss - 15/1 41 $417,695

Ran to a second place finish in the Louisiana Derby. Has only finished out of the top three twice in nine starts.

7.- Giant Finish - Anthony W. Dutrow - 50/1 10 $133,050

This colt has finished outside of the top three only once in 5 career starts.

8.- Goldencents - D. O'Neill - 5/1 129 $758,000

Just won the Santa Anita Derby and is now a frontrunner in the Derby.

9.- Overanalyze - T. Pletcher - 15/1 110 $356,381

Just won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby to punch his tickey to the kentucky Derby

10.- Palace malice - T. Pletcher - 20/1 50 $121,135

Five showings in six career starts for this thoroughbred.

11.- Lines of Battle - A. O'Brien - 30/1 100 $1,276,204

Recently held off Elleval to win the UAE Derby.

12.- Itsmyluckyday - E. Plesa Jr. - 15/1 50 $393,600

In nine career starts, this colt has finished out of the money only twice.

13.- Falling Sky - J. Terranova - 50/1 30 $249,800

Has four showings in six starts but ran to a disappointing fourth place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

14.- Verrazano - T. Pletcher 4/1 - 150 $210,000

Recently won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial and is one of the clear-cut contenders in the Kentucky Derby.

15.- Charming Kitten - T. Pletcher - 20/1 20 $257,000

Ran to a thrid place finish in the recent Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

16.- Orb - S. McGaughey III -7/2 150 $240,000

Winner of three in a row, including the Grade 3 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

17.- Will Take Charge - D. W. Lukas - 20/1 60 $545,371

Recently ran to a first place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes.

18.- Frac Daddy - K. McPeek - 50/1 44 $288,116

Was the runner up in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and has four showings in six starts.

19.- Java's War - K. McPeek - 15/1 122 $201,772

Sealed a trip to the Kentucky Derby with a resounding win in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

20.- Vyjack - R. Rodriguez - 15/1 70 $405,000

Recently won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes to remain unbeaten at Aqueduct.

Bob Balfe

My Kentucky Derby Trifecta box 9-8-18 Overanalyze, Goldencents, Frac Daddy

i'll take Todd Pletcher

I think the winner of this race will come out of the Wood Memorial.

My win place show is Revolutionary GoldenCents and ItsMyLuckyDay.

Nobody is talking about Lines Of Battle because everybody usually automatically dismisses these European shippers. And I usually do too. But I read where his trainer O'Brien doesn't usually mess with these kinds of dirt races unless he thinks his horse will take to the track and has a good chance to finish in the top 3. So I am definitely going to throw this horse in a few exotics.

This guy is always solid:

Kentucky Derby Picks & Analysis

by Ken Strong of Predictem.com


1. Goldencents
2. Orb
3. Revolutionary
4. Normandy Invasion


Kentucky Derby Superfecta Longshots: Palace Malice, Overanalyze, Itsmyluckyday


Horse to reluctantly include on Kentucky Derby exotic tickets: Verrazano
No matter how many times we watch the replays we keep going back to the same horse to win the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby – Goldencents.
Goldencents fits every requirement we like in a Kentucky Derby winner. He’s fit and he’s a fighter. He also has the highest last race Beyer Speed Figure. While we often look beyond the numbers in this race, the fact that he has the highest Beyer Speed Figure simply gives us some bonus points.
We weren’t convinced Goldencents was legitimate in the spring, but after engaging in a suicidal duel with Flashback in the San Felipe and tiring to finish fourth, he came back with a huge effort to win the Santa Anita Derby-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on April 6. In that race he pressed a decent pace, challenged the pacesetter turning for home, shook that one off, turned back a heavy bid from Flashback and drew out to win by 1 ¼-lengths. Good horses improve off tough races and if the Santa Anita Derby was any indication, Goldencents is good horse.
Also to the benefit of Goldencents is the fact that his trainer Doug O’Neill won this race last year with I’ll Have Another. And Goldencents has high-class speed in race where there isn’t a lot of it. He doesn’t need the lead to win, and the fact that he has natural speed will help him establish position early and avoid trouble in the bulky 19-horse field.


We have two minor concerns about Goldencents. His jockey Kevin Krigger is a rookie in this race and while he did a great job in the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby can be a real pressure cooker. Interestingly, Krigger is seeking to become the first black jockey to win the Kentucky Derby since 1902. We’re hoping he gives a Goldencents a nice smooth trip just off a moderate pace and has enough left to hold off the ralliers.


The second concern we have with Goldencents is his pedigree. While proven at 1 1/8-miles, his pedigree may only be good enough to get the 1 ¼-miles of the Kentucky Derby with a good trip that doesn’t involve staying too close to a fast pace. If he goes to fast early, he may not get the distance. Of course there’s always the remote possibility that he could get the lead by himself, rate and draw away in the stretch. Here’s hoping!


While Goldencents was the third choice on the morning line, we have a feeling he will be well bet on Derby Day. You simply can’t look past his form, fitness, class and will to win.
If a decent pace ensues up front and Goldencents gets caught up in early battle on the turn and into the stretch, we like Orb to be the rallier that benefits most. Orb is a good horse with a top trainer that has won three in a row including the Florida Derby-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on March 30 in his most recent start.


Orb isn’t flashy. He wins in workmanlike fashion. But his trainer “Shug” McGaughey, knows how to train a good horse and Orb is peaking perfectly for this race. Orb has stamina on both sides of his pedigree and he has been working well at Churchill Downs. He also has a jockey advantage over Goldencents with Joel Rosario in the saddle.


Additionally, McGaughey is not known as a big user of medication on his horses, yet he has already won several Breeders’ Cup races. Both the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Derby have stricter medication rules, and McGaughey has already proven that won’t bother his horses.


The horse that Orb defeated in the Florida Derby, Itsmyluckyday, looks interesting at 15-1 morning line odds. He was making his first start in over two months in that race and he tired in the stretch. He has run some big Beyer Speed Figures this year and although his pedigree is a little weak on the stamina side he could make a run turning for home and thus needs to be included in your exotic wagers.


Trainer Todd Pletcher has five horses in this year’s Derby, more than 20 percent of the field, and he could try to throw a wrench into the pace with one of his five horses to set the race up for another.


Pletcher’s entrants have talent, but they just never seem to do anything out of the ordinary, like win the Kentucky Derby. That being said, he did win the Kentucky Oaks-G1 at Churchill Downs on Friday with 38-1 Princess of Sylmar. He had four horses in the race, including the favorite, and his 38-1 shot won. What does that tell you? Maybe déjà vu in the Derby?
It’s difficult to tell how good Pletcher’s undefeated Verrazano is after his fourth win in a row in the Wood Memorial-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on April 6. In that race he sat just off a longshot who set a slow pace, put that one away and held off ralliers who couldn’t close into the slow pace. He should get a good trip close to the pace, but we have to think that Goldencents will give him a much bigger fight when it counts. And his pedigree says 1 ¼-miles might be a stretch. We’ll use Verrazano, but only in the underneath slots on our exotic wagers.
Pletcher also saddles Revolutionary, who boasts a classy stamina pedigree. He will probably rally from well back, but he gets multiple Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel, who will probably sit on the rail waiting for room until late in the race when most of the field implodes on itself due to stamina limitations. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, he has to be used in trifectas and superfectas for both his stamina and Borel.


Overanalyze, another Pletcher trainee, looked good romping to victory in the Arkansas Derby-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on April 13 and could improve in the Derby. He makes his third start off the layoff and gets top jockey Raphael Bejarano. Listed at 15-1, he’ll probably be better odds than that at post time. Value play.


That leaves two Pletcher horses that might be able to go to the lead and mess up likely pacesetters Falling Sky and Goldencents. We’re going to guess that Pletcher sends 20-1 Palace Malice to keep the pace honest. The Bluegrass Stakes-G1 runner up gets blinkers on for the Derby and he does have some stamina in his pedigree. Longshot play for exotics.
Normandy Invasion is the wise guy horse after his strong finish into the slow pace behind Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Lightly raced, Normandy Invasion makes his third start off the layoff and has the top trainer jockey combination of Brown-Castellano in his favor. Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, watch his odds on Derby Day and use in the exotic wagers accordingly.


Good Luck! Hoping you cash for boxcars in the 2013 Kentucky Derby!


Kentucky Derby Sloppy Track Notes: There is a good chance of rain at Churchill Downs on Saturday. If the track is sloppy, give extra consideration to Revolutionary, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, Vyjack, Normandy Invasion and our main pick, Goldencents.

Bet the 5