[h=1]Best Kentucky Derby value bets[/h][h=3]Revolutionary among six horses that offer the best value on Saturday[/h]
By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider
In horse racing, one of the best betting days of the year is the first Saturday in May when the Kentucky Derby rolls around. The first leg of the Triple Crown, the Derby is the only race in which 20 horses can run -- which presents great opportunities and value. Over the past 10 years, the post-time favorite has had average odds of just over 5-1. Favorites have not performed well in the Kentucky Derby, as the average odds for the winning horse in the past 20 years is 16.25-1.
This year, a lot of the betting focus will be on Orb (No. 16, 7-2 morning line favorite) and Verrazano (No. 14, 4-1 morning line). The former has won four in a row and by all accounts has trained superbly at Churchill Downs. In addition, jockey Joel Rosario is one of the top riders in the country.
Verrazano, who is a perfect 4-for-4, comes from the powerhouse barn of trainer Todd Pletcher and has had plenty of time to acclimate to the Churchill Downs racing surface.
Plenty of horses offer great value and appear to have a realistic to shot to win the Run for the Roses. Here are my six best value bets for the Kentucky Derby:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013 Kentucky Derby odds[/h]
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Revolutionary (No. 3, morning line 10-1) -- It seems that every year there is always a great amount of pressure on Pletcher to win the Run for the Roses. The former assistant to Hall of Fame conditioner D. Wayne Lukas has been among the best in racing for years, and this horse presents a good value.
<OFFER>Revolutionary is entering the Derby with a three-race winning streak, which only two other horses can boast (both of those are the favorites), and he gets a new jockey in the form of newly minted Hall of Famer Calvin Borel. The duo teamed up for Pletcher's first Derby victory in 2010 with Super Saver.
Borel has also been one of the hottest riders in the Derby (he has won three of the past six) and knows Churchill Downs as well as any rider in the field. You can be sure Borel will place the horse along the "Borail" as soon as he can to give him the best chance to win. Also, the colt has been training well at Churchill since he arrived a couple of weeks ago.
Normandy Invasion (No. 5, morning line 12-1) -- Although he has only one victory to his credit, the namesake of the famous World War II Allied invasion has been improving with every start.
He finished second to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial last month after getting bumped shortly after the start of the race. In fact, both of his efforts this year have been far from trouble-free. It is hard to avoid trouble altogether in the Kentucky Derby. But if this talented horse -- who has also trained well at Churchill Downs -- can avoid any mishaps, he should have a good shot at a square price.
Overanalyze (No. 9, morning line 15-1) -- Another horse from the powerful Pletcher stable has won four of seven starts, with his most impressive victory coming in his last race, the Arkansas Derby.
The reason his Arkansas victory stands out is that he had a tough trip and still managed to pull away for a 4.5-length victory. He retains the services of jockey Rafael Bejarano, one of the top riders in Southern California, and beat Normandy Invasion late last year.
Overanalyze should not be far off the lead in the early going of the Derby and should be able to steer clear of a lot of trouble.
Itsmyluckyday (No. 12, morning line 15-1) -- Earlier in the year, this colt was one of the favorites for the Derby after winning two in a row, but he was immediately overshadowed after losing to Orb in the Florida Derby.
But when you look objectively at his record, there are a lot of things to like. Itsmyluckyday has won half of his races (5-for-10) and has had no problem running well no matter what track he has run on. (He has won races at three different tracks.) Also, if the track does come up sloppy, that shouldn't be a problem.
The key for him is not getting caught too wide on both turns since he is starting toward the outside, but he should be near the front as they turn for home.
Java's War (No. 19, morning line 15-1) -- This is a horse that can drive you nuts when you bet him because he usually drops right to the back of the pack shortly after the start and makes one huge run at the end.
For a horse to make that one run late in a race takes a lot of luck, and he'll fall short many times because of the potential traffic. Java's War finally put it all together in the Blue Grass last time as he went from last to first and got up in the final strides to win.
The worry in the Derby is that he could fall too far behind, but he will have the benefit of a lot of horses getting tired down the long quarter-mile Churchill Downs home stretch. Another advantage for this colt is that Churchill is his home track, so he is very familiar with his surroundings.
Frac Daddy (No. 18, morning line 50-1) -- There always seems to be one real long shot that gets in the mix, and this colt has a shot to be a big spoiler Saturday.
He has won just once in six starts, but his worst two races were both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. If you discount those races, he hasn't finished worse than second, and his lone career win is at Churchill Downs.
His last race was a good second place to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby, and Frac Daddy is another horse that calls Churchill Downs his home. And, as a bonus, if it does rain, he has a second-place effort in the mud at Belmont Park last year to his name.
By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider
In horse racing, one of the best betting days of the year is the first Saturday in May when the Kentucky Derby rolls around. The first leg of the Triple Crown, the Derby is the only race in which 20 horses can run -- which presents great opportunities and value. Over the past 10 years, the post-time favorite has had average odds of just over 5-1. Favorites have not performed well in the Kentucky Derby, as the average odds for the winning horse in the past 20 years is 16.25-1.
This year, a lot of the betting focus will be on Orb (No. 16, 7-2 morning line favorite) and Verrazano (No. 14, 4-1 morning line). The former has won four in a row and by all accounts has trained superbly at Churchill Downs. In addition, jockey Joel Rosario is one of the top riders in the country.
Verrazano, who is a perfect 4-for-4, comes from the powerhouse barn of trainer Todd Pletcher and has had plenty of time to acclimate to the Churchill Downs racing surface.
Plenty of horses offer great value and appear to have a realistic to shot to win the Run for the Roses. Here are my six best value bets for the Kentucky Derby:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2013 Kentucky Derby odds[/h]
No. | Horse | Odds |
---|---|---|
1 | Black Onyx - DROPPED | 50-1 |
2 | Oxbow | 30-1 |
3 | Revolutionary | 10-1 |
4 | Golden Soul | 50-1 |
5 | Normandy Invasion | 12-1 |
6 | Mylute | 15-1 |
7 | Giant Finish | 50-1 |
8 | Goldencents | 5-1 |
9 | Overanalyze | 15-1 |
10 | Palace Malice | 20-1 |
11 | Lines of Battle | 30-1 |
12 | Itsmyluckyday | 15-1 |
13 | Falling Sky | 50-1 |
14 | Verrazano | 4-1 |
15 | Charming Kitten | 20-1 |
16 | Orb | 7-2 |
17 | Will Take Charge | 20-1 |
18 | Frac Daddy | 50-1 |
19 | Java's War | 15-1 |
20 | Vyjack | 15-1 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Revolutionary (No. 3, morning line 10-1) -- It seems that every year there is always a great amount of pressure on Pletcher to win the Run for the Roses. The former assistant to Hall of Fame conditioner D. Wayne Lukas has been among the best in racing for years, and this horse presents a good value.
<OFFER>Revolutionary is entering the Derby with a three-race winning streak, which only two other horses can boast (both of those are the favorites), and he gets a new jockey in the form of newly minted Hall of Famer Calvin Borel. The duo teamed up for Pletcher's first Derby victory in 2010 with Super Saver.
Borel has also been one of the hottest riders in the Derby (he has won three of the past six) and knows Churchill Downs as well as any rider in the field. You can be sure Borel will place the horse along the "Borail" as soon as he can to give him the best chance to win. Also, the colt has been training well at Churchill since he arrived a couple of weeks ago.
Normandy Invasion (No. 5, morning line 12-1) -- Although he has only one victory to his credit, the namesake of the famous World War II Allied invasion has been improving with every start.
He finished second to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial last month after getting bumped shortly after the start of the race. In fact, both of his efforts this year have been far from trouble-free. It is hard to avoid trouble altogether in the Kentucky Derby. But if this talented horse -- who has also trained well at Churchill Downs -- can avoid any mishaps, he should have a good shot at a square price.
Overanalyze (No. 9, morning line 15-1) -- Another horse from the powerful Pletcher stable has won four of seven starts, with his most impressive victory coming in his last race, the Arkansas Derby.
The reason his Arkansas victory stands out is that he had a tough trip and still managed to pull away for a 4.5-length victory. He retains the services of jockey Rafael Bejarano, one of the top riders in Southern California, and beat Normandy Invasion late last year.
Overanalyze should not be far off the lead in the early going of the Derby and should be able to steer clear of a lot of trouble.
Itsmyluckyday (No. 12, morning line 15-1) -- Earlier in the year, this colt was one of the favorites for the Derby after winning two in a row, but he was immediately overshadowed after losing to Orb in the Florida Derby.
But when you look objectively at his record, there are a lot of things to like. Itsmyluckyday has won half of his races (5-for-10) and has had no problem running well no matter what track he has run on. (He has won races at three different tracks.) Also, if the track does come up sloppy, that shouldn't be a problem.
The key for him is not getting caught too wide on both turns since he is starting toward the outside, but he should be near the front as they turn for home.
Java's War (No. 19, morning line 15-1) -- This is a horse that can drive you nuts when you bet him because he usually drops right to the back of the pack shortly after the start and makes one huge run at the end.
For a horse to make that one run late in a race takes a lot of luck, and he'll fall short many times because of the potential traffic. Java's War finally put it all together in the Blue Grass last time as he went from last to first and got up in the final strides to win.
The worry in the Derby is that he could fall too far behind, but he will have the benefit of a lot of horses getting tired down the long quarter-mile Churchill Downs home stretch. Another advantage for this colt is that Churchill is his home track, so he is very familiar with his surroundings.
Frac Daddy (No. 18, morning line 50-1) -- There always seems to be one real long shot that gets in the mix, and this colt has a shot to be a big spoiler Saturday.
He has won just once in six starts, but his worst two races were both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. If you discount those races, he hasn't finished worse than second, and his lone career win is at Churchill Downs.
His last race was a good second place to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby, and Frac Daddy is another horse that calls Churchill Downs his home. And, as a bonus, if it does rain, he has a second-place effort in the mud at Belmont Park last year to his name.