| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | +4.34 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 33 | 0.00 | +24.84 |
| Season to Date | 47 | 44 | 0.00 | +17.76 |
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St. Louis -104 over MILWAUKEE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]When you keep winning in the opposition’s backyard, it doesn’t get more difficult the next time out, it gets easier. St. Louis has won the first three games of this series and will attempt to sweep with another win today. In this series, the Cardinals have gotten every big hit, every big out, they’ve also scored six runs or more in each game and they have a great shot of putting up a similar number here. Marco Estrada has 34 K’s against just seven walks issued in 35.1 frames this year. Estrada is legit in that he’ll win some ball games, however, his dominant start/disaster start split over his career assures us that he’s just as likely to blow up as he is to throw a good game. Estrada has faced the Cubs twice this year and the Padres once, totaling three of his five starts. He has a 4.58 ERA, a .284 BAA but the most disturbing number off all is the 10 jacks he’s surrendered in five starts. Against the Cardinals at this park, he could easily add to that total. Current Cardinals are hitting .330 against Estrada in 88 career AB’s against him.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
A consistent strikeout rate and consistently good ERA came into question 18 months ago when doctors discovered damage in Jaime Garcia’s left shoulder. On the shelf for two months in the middle of the 2012 season, the left-hander rebounded with solid skills over the final two months of the campaign. Garcia has upped his game this season. Garcia is a pure groundball pitcher and continues to keep the ball on the playable side of the fence with an elite 68% groundball rate. One could throw a blanket over the similar xERA figures of the last three years-plus, and Garcia has also been consistent with those years, from month to month. Garcia is the straight goods and when he pitches the Cardinals have a better chance of winning than losing. He’s a much better option at a pick-em than Estrada, not only because he’s a better hurler but because the Cardinals are a better team with the superior bullpen. Play: St. Louis -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Seattle +135 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Fading the Blue Jays has been a cash cow and we’re not about to stop now. The Blue Jays were smoked again yesterday by a score of 8-1 and have now been outscored 25-3 over their last four games. Yesterday, the Blue Jays managed just five hits (four singles and a double). That genius John Gibbons may be out of a job as early as tomorrow. Gibbons had Rajai Davis hitting sixth yesterday. Sixth?! Davis is a career bench player whose only attribute is his speed. He should be a pinch runner in the ninth inning when down a run and not in the heart of your batting order. The Blue Jays are a half game better than the Marlins. The only reason the Blue Jays aren’t dead last in the AL is because Houston switched leagues. This is not just a bad stretch. The Jays have put together a poor mix of players and a turnaround is not forthcoming.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The reason the Jays are a big price today is because Brandon Morrow is up against Joe Saunders and we’re not about to make a case for Saunders. Saunders can get rocked at any time, as he’s a below average pitcher that relies on a lot of luck to get through games. He may not need luck today because the Blue Jays are not hitting anything. Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow is winless this season and at home, Morrow is 0-1 with an ERA of 4.96. Forget the pitchers, as this has nothing to do with them. Toronto is a complete mess that is not responding to its manager. Every player walks to the plate with their head down and back to the dugout with their head down as they get booed off the field on their way back to the dugout. The Mariners offer up some great value here at this ridiculous price because right now, the Jays are the most beatable team in MLB. Play: Seattle +135 (Risking 2 units).
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