Scrappers can apply. Over the years, current Hall of Famers—Phil Mickelson, Nick Price, Sandy Lyle and Greg Norman—as well as a Hall of Fame lock, Tiger Woods, have won the event at TPC, where the tournament moved in 1982. But none of those greats won a second time. In fact, no multi-major winner has ever won more than a single Players at TPC Sawgrass. Since his victory in 2001, Woods has managed only one top-10 finish.
This is partly because the winners can come from anywhere. The 2002 champion, Craig Perks, hadn't won on the PGA Tour before winning at the Players—and hasn't won since. None of the winners from 2009 through 2011—Henrik Stenson, Tim Clark and K.J. Choi—have won a Tour event since. Sergio Garcia, the 2008 champ, has won only once on Tour since cashing at TPC.
All of which makes it difficult to produce a reliable performance chart for this year's, or any year's, championship. At the established majors, despite occasional Cinderella stories such as Trevor Immelman at the 2008 Masters and Michael Campbell at the 2005 U.S. Open, the contenders on Sunday afternoons almost always include a few of the game's reigning greats. That's not usually the case at the Players. At last year's event, no player ranked in the world top 20, apart from Luke Donald, finished within seven strokes of the winner, Matt Kuchar.
Kuchar may be as good a bet as anyone to take home this year's trophy, because TPC Sawgrass favors shot-makers like him, not bombers like Dustin Johnson or Rory McIlroy, who has missed the cut in all three visits to Ponte Vedra.
Last week's flooding rains will test the course's recent drainage upgrades, but in general, Sawgrass plays shorter than its official 7,215 yards because the fairways are firm and fast. Long drives just a fraction off skitter through the turns and into the Bermuda rough, which is not long enough to prevent advancing the ball but is certainly long enough to create low-spinning fliers and play havoc with distance control.
Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, the two best players who haven't won majors, are both on their games this season and have just the type of controlled approach that matches well with Sawgrass. So does their fellow Englishman, Justin Rose, a brilliant golf tactician and world No. 4. Also capable of winning are the savvy old-timers Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk. Both are short off the tee, but so were Fred Funk (2005) and Clark when they won.