| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +5.34 |
| Last 30 Days | 41 | 31 | 0.00 | +31.02 |
| Season to Date | 51 | 46 | 0.00 | +23.10 |
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CLEVELAND -110 over Oakland
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]One could not be blamed for liking A.J. Griffin’s 3-2 record after six starts to go along with a very respectable 3.79 ERA after going 7-1 last season with a 3.06 ERA. On paper it looks pretty but it’s a god thing you are reading this because we’re here to tell you A.J. Griffin is all smoke and mirrors. Griffin has one of the worst batted ball profiles in the majors with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 30%/26%/44%. He also had a 100% strand rate in his last start and an overall strand rate of 84%. Initial scouting reports had Griffin as a potential middle of the rotation starter and his performance with Oakland has done nothing to contradict that assessment. He’s an average pitcher with declining skills and now that batters know him a serious correction in his numbers is forthcoming. Expect Griffin to be much closer to his 4.89 xERA than his actual 3.79 ERA very soon and these Indians are just the team to correct his stats.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The A’s bats have predictably slowed down over the past week. Oakland has hit just .239 over its past seven games and overall they have been much better versus lefties. Against righties on the season, the A’s are batting just .234 and will face a good one here in Justin Masterson. Masterson has gained 2.1 mph on his fastball from May 2012 to May 2013, the biggest jump of any starter in the big league. What’s even more impressive is that despite the low strand rate of 72%, Masterson has an ERA 3.64. A normal strand rate and his ERA would be under 3. Just about everything hit off of Griffin this season has been hit hard and this park is much less forgiving than Oakland’s ballpark. The Indians are playing some great baseball right across the board and it’s likely to continue for at least one more game here. Play: Cleveland -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Philadelphia +135 over SAN FRANCISCO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. 3:45 PM EST. The Phillies go for a rare sweep in San Francisco and there’s no reason they can’t do it. Regardless of that, we’re still going to play this game in the first five innings because it’s largely based on the pitching matchup and if the Phillies get to Zito, it’s likely to occur early. Zito continues to grossly outpitch his ERA. He comes into this game with an ERA of 3.06 but his xERA is 4.51 and over his past two starts that xERA is 5.48. Each game is independent of itself and while Zito could get lucky again today, he remains a prime fade candidate because over time he is going to produce a healthy return on investment. There is absolutely nothing in his profile that says he’s a good pitcher. Zito has a below average 38%/26%/35% GB/line-drive/fly-ball profile. He has been greatly aided by an 84% strand rate. He has a WHIP of 1.45 and while his walks are down, his WHIP is bordering on troublesome. Barry Zito is not a new pitcher. He’s the same stiff that is flashing the same poor skills that he’s been flashing for years. The time is now to sell high because if ever there was a FLUKE, Barry Zito is it.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Jonathan Pettibone has not looked a bit out of place in his three major league starts and comes into this one with a nifty 3.24 ERA and xERA of 3.50 while only issuing two walks in 17 frames. The 6’6” 225 pound righty has an ideal, agile frame that he uses to his advantage. His velocity is average—89-94 mph fastball—but he uses his height and arm slot to throw downhill and keep the ball on the ground. Pettibone has been a consistent performer, thanks in large part to an ability to repeat his mechanics and throw strikes. He has excellent control of his pitches and he moves the ball in and out, up and down. Though he may not have a true, big league out pitch, he mixes his pitches well. His cutter and slider work well in tandem while his change-up was the best off-speed pitch in Phillies minor league system. Pettibone didn’t have the highest upside of pitchers in the system when he got the call-up but he has a high floor and should be a rotation mainstay for years. He posted a career 3.44 ERA since being selected in the third round of the ’08 draft and he’s carried that consistency to this level. Play: Philly +135 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units). [/FONT][/FONT]
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Texas +106 over MILWAUKEE
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Derek Holland is rolling into tonight's outing with a 15/2 K/BB in his last two starts. Holland is progressing as well or better than any pitcher in the game and it’s only a matter of time before he’s regarded as an elite starter. He already has that label in our book. Holland has 37 K’s and has walked just 10 in 42.2 innings. His BAA of .180 versus righties confirms he’s making gains every outing. Overall, the opposition has hit just .199 against Holland. Holland’s growth can be seen in his dominant starts/disaster starts splits here: 40%/50% in 2010, 47%/22% in 2011, 63%/15% in 2012 and 83%/17% this season. It’s also worth noting that current Brewers have faced Holland 15 times and has just one hit off him for a BA of .067. As a pooch, Holland offers up great profit potential.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Kyle Lohse is once again outpitching his xERA. A very minor skills boost notwithstanding, let someone else pay for Lohse’s misleading surface stats. Lohse’s control (3 BB in 37 IP) is certainly legit but he has just 24 K’s to go along with a pedestrian 36% groundball rate. Lohse has a disturbing 26% line-drive rate that should not be ignored. Those hard hit balls will soon find gaps and these Rangers have been known for hitting their fair share of two-baggers. Kyle Lohe’s xERA over his past two starts was 4.79. That’s almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA and while he usually gives the Brewers a chance to win, he’s also the second best pitcher in this matchup by a wide margin. Give us Holland plus a tag over Milwaukee and Lohse and we’ll step in every single time. No exception here. Play: Texas +106 (Risking 2 units).
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