[h=1]Best bets at Players Championship[/h][h=3]Is Tiger Woods a good value at 8-1? Plus, value wagers and prop bets[/h]
By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
When I handicap a golf tournament, the first thing that I look at is the weather, both before the event and during. It has a huge impact on the golf course, how it will play lengthwise, the speed of the greens and also which players will relish in or loathe those conditions.
This past weekend, rain pelted the Ponte Vedra Beach area to the tune of 8 inches and the much maligned TPC Sawgrass golf course was under water. However, the TPC Sawgrass had installed top-of-the-line sub-air systems for the greens and tile drainage for the fairways, thus making the conditions by Tuesday firm and fast. One area that has not drained well is the rough and spectator areas. All of this information is important when handicapping.
With soaked rough areas making the grass thicker than normal, players who spray their tee shots or lack the driving accuracy to hit the firm fairways will suffer greatly with their approach shots to the green. The Players Championship has in the past been a tournament dominated by short and accurate hitters. Paul Goydos, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, Stephen Ames, David Toms and even Ben Curtis have all won or finished in the top 10.
But the biggest name of all, Tiger Woods, has not fared well at The Players Championship. Of all the tournaments that he has played at least 10 times on the same golf course, he has four wins or more on each of them except TPC Sawgrass -- where he has won only once. That victory was in 2001, when we can safely say Tiger was at the peak of his game; it took him another eight years to record his next top-10.
Despite three wins already this season, it's seems Tiger does not take this tournament very seriously. Last year he did not participate after Augusta until Tuesday of this event, and he mentioned he did not pick up a club prior to that either. This year he has taken time off and not played a tournament since Augusta again. His average finish in this event is 21st place, making this track the most difficult on Tour for Tiger.
The TPC Sawgrass will play to a par 72 and can stretch out to 7,215 yards. There are 24 water hazards, the fairways are tight and the greens are small in comparison to most PGA Tour courses.
Here are my top value bets to win The Players Championship, along with some matchup props I like.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill.US Sports Book, Las Vegas.
[h=3]Value bets[/h]
Bo Van Pelt (45-1)
Van Pelt finally found his game last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, finishing tied for sixth place. It was his best tournament of the season to date and for a player who had 10 top-10 finishes a year ago, we know Bo can go low. At Quail Hollow he hit 70.8 percent of his greens in regulation (GIR) and was in the top 15 in strokes gained putting. Last year here at The Players was one of those top-10 finishes, as he was T-7.
Jason Dufner (60-1)
Dufner is the prototypical fairways and greens player who one day should win a Players Championship and maybe a U.S. Open. He had a sixth-place showing in 2011 and has a scoring average in this event below par at 71.86. His driving accuracy is also very solid, ranking 12th on Tour.
Tim Clark (100-1)
"The Penguin" is one of the shortest hitters in the game, ranking 173rd in driving distance. However, distance is not required to tame the tricky TPC Sawgrass. Clark won this tournament in 2010 and recently has been in fine form with a T-11 at the Masters and a T-24 at the RBC Classic.
Brian Davis (220-1)
This future book odds price on Davis has tremendous value. Davis is known as a conservative, accurate ball striker, and when he gets hot with his putter will make a run to win any championship. He has played the last three PGA Tour tournaments in a row, which only one other player in the field has done. With a T-25, T-26 and a fifth-place finish at The Players in 2009, Davis has the experience and current form to challenge on Sunday.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]
Phil Mickelson plus-140 over Adam Scott
Scott has not played an event since winning at Augusta in April. Is there such a thing as a Masters hangover? To be the first Australian golfer ever to win the green jacket, surely must have made for plenty of celebration. Mickelson on the other hand we know shows up in the big events, especially when he performs well the week before. Last week he had the lead at Quail Hollow but let it slip away during the closing stretch of the last three holes known as the "Green Mile." I expect Mickelson to bounce back from the disappointment, and we have already seen his swing coach Butch Harmon working with him on the range at TPC Sawgrass.
Rory McIlroy plus-145 over Tiger Woods
Yes, we lost with this matchup at Augusta National, but as we mentioned this golf course does not suit Tiger's game. McIlroy once again looks to be rounding into form. He led the field in GIR last week at 77. 8 percent and he was T-4 in fairways hit. How he did not win the Wells Fargo Championship with those stats was a miracle, but it was obvious he did not putt well on the bumpy, awfully conditioned greens. If he puts up those same numbers here, he'll be on or near the top of the leaderboard.
Luke Guthrie minus-120 over Mark Wilson
Guthrie is an up-and-coming player who has produced five top-25 finishes, including two top-10's, in his first full year on the PGA Tour. He has never played in The Players Championship before, but this matchup bet is more of a go-against play. Wilson is a streaky player but he has a hard time navigating TPC Sawgrass. He has missed the cut here three years in a row and his best finish is only a T-42 with an average finish of 82nd place.
Brian Davis minus-110 over Brian Gay
Gay won earlier in the season at the Humana Challenge, but since then he has missed three cuts and his best finish is a T-24. We've seen this before from Gay, who cashes a big check and then becomes complacent the rest of the year. We prefer Davis' current form and overall record at The Players to get the money in this matchup.
By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
When I handicap a golf tournament, the first thing that I look at is the weather, both before the event and during. It has a huge impact on the golf course, how it will play lengthwise, the speed of the greens and also which players will relish in or loathe those conditions.
This past weekend, rain pelted the Ponte Vedra Beach area to the tune of 8 inches and the much maligned TPC Sawgrass golf course was under water. However, the TPC Sawgrass had installed top-of-the-line sub-air systems for the greens and tile drainage for the fairways, thus making the conditions by Tuesday firm and fast. One area that has not drained well is the rough and spectator areas. All of this information is important when handicapping.
With soaked rough areas making the grass thicker than normal, players who spray their tee shots or lack the driving accuracy to hit the firm fairways will suffer greatly with their approach shots to the green. The Players Championship has in the past been a tournament dominated by short and accurate hitters. Paul Goydos, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, Stephen Ames, David Toms and even Ben Curtis have all won or finished in the top 10.
But the biggest name of all, Tiger Woods, has not fared well at The Players Championship. Of all the tournaments that he has played at least 10 times on the same golf course, he has four wins or more on each of them except TPC Sawgrass -- where he has won only once. That victory was in 2001, when we can safely say Tiger was at the peak of his game; it took him another eight years to record his next top-10.
Despite three wins already this season, it's seems Tiger does not take this tournament very seriously. Last year he did not participate after Augusta until Tuesday of this event, and he mentioned he did not pick up a club prior to that either. This year he has taken time off and not played a tournament since Augusta again. His average finish in this event is 21st place, making this track the most difficult on Tour for Tiger.
The TPC Sawgrass will play to a par 72 and can stretch out to 7,215 yards. There are 24 water hazards, the fairways are tight and the greens are small in comparison to most PGA Tour courses.
Here are my top value bets to win The Players Championship, along with some matchup props I like.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill.US Sports Book, Las Vegas.
[h=3]Value bets[/h]
Bo Van Pelt (45-1)
Van Pelt finally found his game last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, finishing tied for sixth place. It was his best tournament of the season to date and for a player who had 10 top-10 finishes a year ago, we know Bo can go low. At Quail Hollow he hit 70.8 percent of his greens in regulation (GIR) and was in the top 15 in strokes gained putting. Last year here at The Players was one of those top-10 finishes, as he was T-7.
Jason Dufner (60-1)
Dufner is the prototypical fairways and greens player who one day should win a Players Championship and maybe a U.S. Open. He had a sixth-place showing in 2011 and has a scoring average in this event below par at 71.86. His driving accuracy is also very solid, ranking 12th on Tour.
Tim Clark (100-1)
"The Penguin" is one of the shortest hitters in the game, ranking 173rd in driving distance. However, distance is not required to tame the tricky TPC Sawgrass. Clark won this tournament in 2010 and recently has been in fine form with a T-11 at the Masters and a T-24 at the RBC Classic.
Brian Davis (220-1)
This future book odds price on Davis has tremendous value. Davis is known as a conservative, accurate ball striker, and when he gets hot with his putter will make a run to win any championship. He has played the last three PGA Tour tournaments in a row, which only one other player in the field has done. With a T-25, T-26 and a fifth-place finish at The Players in 2009, Davis has the experience and current form to challenge on Sunday.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]
Phil Mickelson plus-140 over Adam Scott
Scott has not played an event since winning at Augusta in April. Is there such a thing as a Masters hangover? To be the first Australian golfer ever to win the green jacket, surely must have made for plenty of celebration. Mickelson on the other hand we know shows up in the big events, especially when he performs well the week before. Last week he had the lead at Quail Hollow but let it slip away during the closing stretch of the last three holes known as the "Green Mile." I expect Mickelson to bounce back from the disappointment, and we have already seen his swing coach Butch Harmon working with him on the range at TPC Sawgrass.
Rory McIlroy plus-145 over Tiger Woods
Yes, we lost with this matchup at Augusta National, but as we mentioned this golf course does not suit Tiger's game. McIlroy once again looks to be rounding into form. He led the field in GIR last week at 77. 8 percent and he was T-4 in fairways hit. How he did not win the Wells Fargo Championship with those stats was a miracle, but it was obvious he did not putt well on the bumpy, awfully conditioned greens. If he puts up those same numbers here, he'll be on or near the top of the leaderboard.
Luke Guthrie minus-120 over Mark Wilson
Guthrie is an up-and-coming player who has produced five top-25 finishes, including two top-10's, in his first full year on the PGA Tour. He has never played in The Players Championship before, but this matchup bet is more of a go-against play. Wilson is a streaky player but he has a hard time navigating TPC Sawgrass. He has missed the cut here three years in a row and his best finish is only a T-42 with an average finish of 82nd place.
Brian Davis minus-110 over Brian Gay
Gay won earlier in the season at the Humana Challenge, but since then he has missed three cuts and his best finish is a T-24. We've seen this before from Gay, who cashes a big check and then becomes complacent the rest of the year. We prefer Davis' current form and overall record at The Players to get the money in this matchup.
