Service Plays Thursday 5/9/13

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Wild at Blackhawks: What bettors need to know

Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks (-265, 5)

Chicago leads series 3-1.

The Minnesota Wild might run out of goaltenders before they run out of opportunities to stay alive in their Western Conference first-round series. The eighth-seeded Wild will likely start rookie netminder Darcy Kuemper when they visit the top-seeded Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday in Game 5, trailing 3-1 after losing both Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding. Backstrom suffered a leg injury while warming up for Game 1, while Harding - absent for most of the season due to complications with treatment for his multiple sclerosis - left Game 4 with what appeared to be a lower-body injury following a collision with Chicago captain Jonathan Toews. Kuemper was unable to stop the first shot he faced in his postseason career but finished Tuesday’s contest with 16 saves on 18 shots.

The Blackhawks have dominated Minnesota at home in the series, outshooting the Wild 85-55 over the first two contests. Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford made 25 saves in Game 4 for his second career playoff shutout. After Tuesday’s triumph and victories at home in the first two games, the Blackhawks have a chance to advance to the second round of the playoffs for the first time in three seasons. Chicago is 5-0-1 in its last six home contests against Minnesota, the one blemish coming in a 5-4 shootout loss on April 1, 2012. The Blackhawks are 47-12-11 at United Center - including playoffs - since the start of last season and went 4-1-0 in elimination games during their 2010 Stanley Cup championship run.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, CBC, RDS2, NBCSN, Fox Sports North, Fox Sports Wisconsin, Comcast Sportsnet Chicago

ABOUT THE WILD: Ryan Suter was nominated for the Norris Trophy on Tuesday as the league’s top defenseman along with Pittsburgh’s Kris Letang and Montreal’s P.K. Subban. Suter, who led the league in time on ice with 27:16 per game, played 30:23 on Tuesday - the third time in four games he reached 30 minutes of ice-time in regulation. Suter has yet to record a point in the series after finishing the season with 32 and has 13 points in 43 career postseason contests. Minnesota coach Mike Yeo would not commit to starting Kuemper in net for Game 5 as Harding and Backstrom both remain day-to-day with their respective injuries. Kuemper, who had a total of 288 minutes in net over six games during the regular season, was selected in the sixth round -161st overall - in 2009 and has one NHL victory to his credit.

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Patrick Sharp scored twice for the second time this series on Tuesday after also recording two in the third period of Game 2. Sharp, who was limited to 28 games and only six goals due to injuries during the regular season, leads the series with five points and has 27 career postseason tallies. Ray Emery and Dave Bolland, who have missed the entire series thus far with lower-body injuries, are doubtful for Game 5 despite practicing with the team this week. Bryan Bickell has scored in three of the four games, raising his career playoff total to seven goals and 10 points in 19 contests. Captain Jonathan Toews has yet to record a point in the series after entering the postseason with 50 points in 52 career games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Wild are 1-5 in the last six meetings in Chicago.
* Wild are 1-5 in the last six meetings.

OVERTIME:

1. Chicago’s penalty killing has been flawless in 15 opportunities for the Wild over the first four games.

2. Minnesota captain Mikko Koivu is minus-5 with eight penalty minutes and has been held off the scoresheet for the duration of the series.

3. Wild RW Jason Pominville returned from a concussion on Tuesday and fired three shots in 12:12 time on ice.

MLB weather report: Hitter's wind expected in San Fran

A light schedule in the major leagues but there could be rain in Boston and Colorado Thursday. Here is a look at the notable weather around big league parks.

(Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets (-105, 7.5)
Site: Citi Field

Forecasts are calling for a 20 percent chance of rain by game time.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (-115, 7.5)
Site: AT&T Park

Wind will blow out to center field at 10 mph.

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox (-155, 9)
Site: Fenway park

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of showers by game time.

New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies (+115, 9.5)
Site: Coors Field

Afternoon forecasts are calling for a 30 percent of showers.

Detroit Tigers vs. Washington Nationals (+120, 7.5)
Site: Nationals Park

Wind will blow out to right field at 11 mph.

Angels, Dodgers burning L.A. baseball bettors
By JASON LOGAN

Living in Los Angeles is expensive, especially if you’re a baseball bettor.

La-La Land’s two MLB franchises, the Angels and Dodgers, are near the bottom of their respective leagues and have burned loyal backers for a combined -25.80 units heading into Wednesday’s schedule ($100 bettors would be down -$2,580 if they wagered on each teams’ games).

The Los Angeles Angels are second last in the American League West at 11-21 and have cost bettors -14.48 units so far, making the Halos the most costly wager in the majors this season. That’s even more than the Houston Astros, who sit below L.A. in the standings at 9-24 and -10.96 units.

Across town, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in the basement of the National League West at 13-19 and have drained bankrolls for -11.32 units – the second-lowest earnings in the bigs. The Dodgers have lost six in a row heading into Wednesday, with that skid burning -7.1 units alone.

The slow start for both L.A. teams was a blood bath for California natives coming to Nevada to wager on their favorite clubs, which in turn has made a pretty profit for books in Reno. They draw a lot of action on California clubs due to its close proximity, even more so when the Angels and Dodgers – two teams expected to be among the best – fall short of those projections.

“They’ve started easing off on them now,” Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook manager at the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, told Covers. “When they’re hot, people jump on them. But as they start losing, people ease off and start picking their spots.”

Mikkelson says the Angels' and Dodgers' slumps have not only cooled off action on their day-to-day odds but also their futures to win the division, league pennants and World Series. The Angels opened the season at +700 to win the World Series and are now listed at +2,000. The Dodgers opened at +800 and have been adjusted to +1,400.

“They’re standing back and taking a look and saying, ‘maybe these guys aren’t as good as we thought they were',” he adds.

The Angels, who were among the World Series favorites after acquiring Josh Hamilton this offseason, dropped three of four games to the Baltimore Orioles on the weekend and have only three wins in their last 10 contests. They will continue a six-game road trip with the second of a three-game set with the Astros Wednesday before visiting the Chicago White Sox.

The Dodgers were swept in a three-game road series with the San Francisco Giants and lost the second game of the series with the Arizona Diamondbacks at home Wednesday. They also have only three victories in their previous 11 outings, as of Wednesday.

Mikkelson says if one of these teams has a better shot at turning their season around, it’s the Dodgers. He points to the unfortunate injuries to players like Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, as well as Matt Kemp’s cold start to the season, and believes those issues are fixable.

“The Angels, with their staff losing (Jered) Weaver and everything that’s going on with (Albert) Pujols’ foot and Hamilton not hitting, there are more holes there day in and day out,” he says.

Three pitchers with good value on the road Thursday

It will be a moderately quiet day around the major leagues with just 10 games on the board Thursday. But it proves to be a day that features some starting pitchers who have had more success away from home than they have in the familiar confines of their own park.

Here is a look at pitchers with solid performances as the visitor and provide a valuable spot bet opportunity.

Jeff Locke, Pittsburgh Pirates (3-1, 3.21 ERA)

The disparity between Locke's success at home and away is eye-opening. The lefty is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, but is 2-1 with a vastly superior 1.89 ERA on the road. Locke has no earned runs in 13 innings over his last two road starts at Philadelphia and at St. Louis.

The Pirates travel to Citi Field to face the New York Mets Thursday.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (1-4, 4.34 ERA)

Hamels' early season struggles have been well documented, but he's put together some pretty good starts recently. The recent success includes a 5-1 win at Citi Field versus the Mets. Hamels is 1-1 with a respectable 3.71 ERA away from Philly. The southpaw is 0-3 and has a 4.71 ERA in Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies open a four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday.

Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics (3-1, 3.62 ERA)

The veteran righty is having a fairly good year all around in 2013. But a closer look reveals much more solid numbers pitching on the road. Colon has a 2-1 record with a 2.95 ERA away from Oakland and a 1-0 record and 4.26 ERA while pitching on home turf. He has given up just six earned runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched in his three road starts this season.

The A's have an afternoon meeting at Progressive Field versus the Cleveland Indians Thursday.

THE PLAYERS Championship: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour heads back to Florida for the "Fifth Major", THE PLAYERS Championship.

"THE PLAYERS" is capitalized for a reason since this is THE Championship for the PLAYERS and a lot of them covet this tournament more than any of the four real majors. That may sound narcissistic but this game is about the players and this is exactly what this tournament is about.

While a lot of the regular stops on the tour value experience, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National are arguably the two biggest venues where experience matters the most. The average number of starts before a victory here is just over seven so just like Augusta, it takes a few years to win here, not including the 2002 win by Craig Perks.

It is a course that rewards accuracy but at the same time, scramblers can have success as long as their misses are in the right spots. Knowing where these spots are comes from experience and as mentioned, that is the biggest factor is success here.

When you think of TPC Sawgrass, you think of the 17th island Par 3, arguably the scariest 130-something shot in golf. It is definitely a risk-reward hole and getting out of there with a par is huge going into No. 18. Why? The 18th at Sawgrass is the second-toughest closing hole on tour going back to 1983. We have seen many PLAYERS won and lost on these final two holes and that’s what it should all be about.

With this being such a prestigious tournament, the field is full of big names with the Top 10 in each of the OWGR and the FedEx Cup Standings in the field. Additionally, nine past PLAYERS champions are here along with 25 major winners and 20 World Golf Championship winners. This makes for an exciting event that should again come down to the final holes Sunday.

Trying to defend his title will be Matt Kuchar (+3,000) and these odds are pretty tasty. He has not missed a cut this year, he has three medal play Top 10s and, prior to his win here last year, he placed in the Top 20 three times. But all is not perfect. Since his win at the Accenture Match Play, he has only one Top 10.

Lee Westwood (+2,500) has not won a major but this would get him back into the talks of being the best player in the world without one. He’s hot right now with three Top 10s in his last three starts and all have gotten better, from a T10 to a T8 to a T4. He has fared well at Sawgrass with three Top 10s, including a T4 in 2010.

Phil Mickelson (+2,500) is a former champion, winning here in 2007 and he has not missed a cut in his last 11 starts at Sawgrass. He has missed just one cut this year and he let his second win of the season get away at Quail Hollow last week as he bogeyed two of the last three holes to miss the playoff by just one shot.

Jason Day (+4,000) has had a lot of time to reflect on his Masters meltdown and he should be fresh and ready to go, having not played since the RBC Heritage. He has three Top 10s this season in medal play events and, while he missed the cut here last year battling injuries, he had a T6 here in 2011.

Bo Van Pelt (+4,000) has some inconsistent numbers at the PLAYERS but when he is on, he is really on. He’s made the cut just three times in eight starts but all three resulted in a top ten including a T7 last year. He’s coming off a great week at Quail Hollow where he finished T6 and can carry that into this week.

Ian Poulter (+6,000) is getting long-shot money here but he doesn’t fit into that category. He’s coming off a disappointing Masters where he missed the cut, so he should be fired up to make up for it. He has finished in the Top 25 here in two of the last four years, including a solo second in 2009 the year Henrik Stenson ran away with it Sunday.

Recommended tournament win five pack at The PLAYERS Championship (all for one unit)

Lee Westwood (+2,500)
Phil Mickelson (+2,500)
Jason Day (+4,000)
Bo Van Pelt (+4,000)
Ian Poulter (+6,000)

After Hot 'Under' Start, NHL Games are trending 'Over'

After a blazing start for games going under the total in the NHL playoffs, the trend has turned recently with the over going 8-1-3 overall since May 5.

The 'Under' was 7-2-1 through the first three nights of the playoffs and reinforced a trend from the first round of the 2012 playoffs.

The $100 bettor would be up $819.37 if wagering on the 'over' in each of the 12 games since May 5.

The series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders has been the best 'Over' play of the postseason going 3-1 ($202.61) in the four games. The two teams have combined for 19 goals in the previous two games.

Not Betting the Home Team in Sens-Habs series?

The home team is on fire and is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens.

Any $100 bettor would be up $763.57 if they had wagered on the home team in the last 11 clashes by the two Canadian hockey clubs.

The feisty playoff matchup continues with Game 5 in Montreal Thursday.

The home team is 3-1 in the series with the lone defeat coming in Game 1 when the Senators prevailed 4-2 as +128 dogs in Montreal.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Heat (-12) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the A’s. The deficit is 457 sirignanos.

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05/09/13 Predictions

Season: 297-187 (.614)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #5
PITTSBURGH 4, N.Y. Islanders 3
MONTREAL 3, Ottawa 2

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #5
CHICAGO 3, Minnesota 2

[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Ottawa at Montreal[/h] The Senators look to close out the series and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 road games. Ottawa is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Toronto at Tampa Bay[/h] The Blue Jays look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 1-5 in David Price's last 6 starts as a home favorite. Toronto is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+135). Here are all of today's picks.

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = New York Yankees @ Colorado Rockies - YANKEES TO WIN (-123)
Listed Pitchers: Sabathia vs Francis
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.63 units)