| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 31 | 0.00 | +28.88 |
| Season to Date | 53 | 47 | 0.00 | +25.22 |
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Oakland/CLEVELAND over 8½ -113
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Oakland/CLEVELAND over 8½ -113[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]12:05 PM EST. You may have noticed a large number of low scoring games over the past couple of days and it’s no coincidence that it coincides with a high pressure (barometric) system in the Midwest and the East Coast. You may also notice on some days an unusually high amount of scoring and it’s something that has really caught our interest. A barometer is an instrument used to measure atmospheric pressure. It can measure the pressure exerted by the atmosphere by using water, air, or mercury and a rising barometer means the air is getting “heavier” and a falling barometer means the air is getting lighter. We’re going to apply that to this game in Cleveland, where the barometric pressure is dropping and then we’re going to factor in the two pitchers.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Oakland has been better against lefties all season with a BA of .280 and will face one here in Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has one of the highest fly-ball rates in the majors at 57% and he also has a disturbing 1.63 WHIP. Once coveted as a hard-throwing lefty with game-changing stuff, Kazmir is in the midst of a four-year slide. Kazmir’s xERA is on a steady rise and now has been more than 5.00 two years running. Low strand % is the partial cause, but there are many other culprits here. HR’s allowed are a consistent problem for Kazmir and he’s already allowed four in 14 frames. Falling behind hitters is another Achilles Heel for Kazmir and that has not been corrected either. Kazmir comes in with a BAA of .305 and an ERA of 6.28 and that’s with a high strand rate of 80%. There’s a reason the A’s are favored over the red hot Indians.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Bartolo Colon comes in with a 3-1 record to go along with a very respectable 3.62 ERA. Colon throws strikes. He’s walked just one batter all season in 37.1 innings. One can’t help but marvel at how well Bartolo Colon is doing. How does this old guy (he turns 40 in a couple of weeks) do it? That question was answered when he was suspended for 50 games last season for PED use but a supposedly drug-free Colon continues to impress this year. Colon seems to be the poster child for guile. He relies primarily on his fastball, which doesn’t get much above 90 mph these days. His success is not likely to last. MLB hitters make adjustments. They all know that he comes out and throws strikes. The Indians are an outstanding fastball hitting team and they’ll come out swinging today. Colon has shown signs of trouble over his past two games with 15 hits allowed in 11.1 innings while allowing two of those hits to leave the park. He also has a fly-ball bias profile. One or both of these pitchers is likely going to get lit up today. This is a beatable total in a hitter’s park with two very average pitchers going and the barometric pressure falling. Play: Cleveland/Oakland over 8½ -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Pittsburgh +104 over N.Y. METS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]After a hot start the Mets are playing as projected, that being a below average team that will be hard pressed to play .500 ball. New York has dropped seven of its past 10 games. Over that stretch, the Mets own the lowest batting average in the majors at .195 and they’re also dead last in runs scored with 31. With Dillon Gee on the hill, chances are the cold bats of the Mets are going to have to score a bunch here because Gee is getting progressively worse with each start. Gee’s walks are up and his strikeouts are down. That’s the first sign of trouble. Gee’s season ended last year with a blood clot in his shoulder and now his health is in question and his results so far suggest it’s also an issue. Gee has a WHIP of 1.63, an ERA of 6.16 and a BAA of .312. He was rocked in his last two starts against the light-hitting Phillies and Marlins. Against Miami, Gee struck out one batter and walked two. Gee’s fastball velocity has also dropped from 90.4 in May of 2012 to 88.6 in his last start. Everything in Gee’s pitching profile says he’s a pitcher in peril.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Meanwhile, Jeff Locke is getting progressively better with each start. His 16 walks in 33.2 innings will be of major concern for most but not us. Locke has always had good control. He has clean arm action that produces a solid 88-92 mph fastball that features nice sink and movement. He can spot it to both sides of the plate effectively and it sets up his curveball and solid-average change-up. Locke won’t dominate or post high strikeout totals but pitch location is a strength and he can even vary his arm angles to keep hitters off-guard. Over his past three starts, his walk totals are down and over that span, he shut out both the Phillies and Cardinals on the road. Locke is now 2-1 on the road with a 1.89 ERA and 2-0 over his past three starts with an ERA of 1.50. Locke and the Pirates are a much better option taking back a tag than the struggling duo of the Mets hitters and Dillon Gee spotting a price. Wrong side favored. Play: Pittsburgh +104 (Risking 2 units).
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