3 Friday w/analysis Colorado @ ST. LOUIS ST. LOUIS -1½ +143 over Colorado BEST LINE: Pinnacle -1½ +143 The Rockies are slowly coming back down to ear

Search

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
logo_5.png

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday110.000.00
Last 30 Days38320.00+21.06
Season to Date54480.00+25.22

<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are 2 units

ST. LOUIS -1½ +143 over Colorado

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[FONT=arial !important]The Rockies are slowly coming back down to earth. After a scorching start that saw them win 13 of their first 17 games, the Rockies are now just four games above .500 with just six wins in their past 17 games. Jon Garland has had four quality starts in six tries but he pitches about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. In 36 innings, Garland has struck out 17 batters while walking 10. In other words, he pitches to contact. With a WHIP of 1.42, a line-drive rate of 30% and a xERA of 5.03, the only thing on the horizon for Garland is regression. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Shelby Miller has fulfilled his ace potential so far, both on the surface (1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and beneath it. Miller has 38 K’s in 37 innings, 11 walks and a 45% groundball rate. With a tweak in control against LH bats, Miller could have even more upside, given his elite command vs. RH bats. This is an elite young talent that is certainly worth riding, especially with this Cardinal offense behind him against Garland.[/FONT]

[/FONT]
[/FONT]

Philadelphia +143 over ARIZONA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies bullpen has a 4.27 ERA this year while the Diamondbacks pen has a nifty 2.87 ERA and it’s for that reason that we’ll play this pup in the first five innings only. Ian Kennedy has some nice skills but those skills may not be best suited for this park. This is the seventh straight season that Kennedy has a fly-ball bias profile. He has a 34%/40% GB/FB profile this season and when you throw in his 26% line-drive rate at this park, it makes him a high risk low reward proposition. With those batted ball percentages it should come as no surprise that Kennedy has one win in three starts at Chase Field with an ERA of 5.49. Kennedy’s fly-ball rate has been increasing over his past five starts to 43% and his GB rate over that same span has decreased to 33%. The Diamondbacks have won four straight but it came against the reeling Dodgers and they are just a game above .500 at home.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Philadelphia is 8-10 both at home and on the road. They are a middle of the pack outfit that will rarely sweep anyone or rarely get swept because they have some solid starting pitching. The Phillies have recalled Tyler Cloyd from Triple-A Lehigh Valley for this start. Cloyd bears watching. In six starts with the Phils last year, obviously a small sample size, he put up some solid skills right across the board despite the 4.91 ERA. Pay more attention to his 3o K’s in those 33 innings against just seven walks. Cloyd got off to a very slow start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley but seems to have righted the ship there in his last few starts. Notably on Saturday, Cloyd struck out 10 and walked none over eight innings against Indianapolis. Soft-tosser with great movement and excellent control was lights-out at AAA, with a 12-1 record and 2.35 ERA. He has a chance to stick around for a long time because he knows how to pitch. Cloyd offers up some tremendous profit potential so we’ll step in right away when his stock is low. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]

Miami +125 over LOS ANGELES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Unlike the Dodgers, at least the Marlins know they are losers. Miami’s projected win total for the year was the second lowest in baseball while the experts suggested that the Dodgers will contend. Keep listening to the “so-called” experts and you’ll go broke fast. These are the same folks that also said the Blue Jays and Angels could meet in the ALCS. In any event, the Dodgers have dropped seven in a row and their 111 runs scored are the second worst in the majors. Matt Magill has made two starts at this level and there are plenty of signs of trouble. He’s already walked six batters in eight innings along with 10 hits for a 2.00 WHIP. Once you cross over a 1.50 WHIP, the minor leagues are not far behind and the only reason that Magill is pitching at this level is because of numerous injuries to the Dodgers starting staff. Magill has steadily progressed through the LA system since 2008 with a 3.77 ERA and .237 opp BA in 532.2 IP over that span. He does not possess typical starter stuff, relying on a slider/change-up combo but the results worked for him in the minors and he’ll keep testing it out at this level. Magill’s fastball is below average, topping out at 91 mph. Slider is his only plus offering and he uses it quite often to miss a lot of bats but he’s also erratic with it and these major league hitters are not going to swing away like they do in the minors. It may surprise you to learn that only seven teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than these Marlins The tell-tale sign of a successful transition to the majors will be whether or not he can get hitters to chase his slider consistently but so far the answer to that is no.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]

Jose Fernandez was recalled from the minors earlier than expected. After seeing his raw stuff, maybe it shouldn't have been so surprising. He has the fifth-highest average fastball velocity in MLB at 94.7 mph and it's a pitch that has a ton of horizontal movement. All of that has added up to these impressive skills: 32 K’s and 12 walks in 31 innings and a 53% groundball rate. This kid is the real deal. Fernandez has a very athletic frame that supports his strong arsenal of pitches. He throws a plus, plus sinking FB ranging from 93-97 that can top out at 99, a plus, plus slow curveball, a late breaking slider, and a change-up that has above-average potential and showing steady improvement. The Fish[/FONT] won’t win many games this season but Fernandez always gives them a chance and against the reeling Dodgers, their chances increase even more.
[/FONT][/FONT]


[/FONT]
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
929
Tokens
good post as usual
I rarely take others picks but I will be taking the cards rl b/c I think you make a few very good points.
Not only does Garland walk a lot of guys but that also mean his location is off and the cards have very disciplined hitters who will made for mistakes and make him pay for them

What site do you use for your line drive/fb/ground ball rates?

Not sure when you played the bet (or if you put it through yet) but 5d has Philly at +154 fyi

Any specific reason you're taking Miami for the whole game instead of 5 innings? Fernandez might only go 4-5 innings.
I was gonna grab the 5 inning line this morning- but the game line moved from +145 down to what it is now before the 5 inning lines came out so I'll leave it alone unless it goes back up
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
good post as usual
I rarely take others picks but I will be taking the cards rl b/c I think you make a few very good points.
Not only does Garland walk a lot of guys but that also mean his location is off and the cards have very disciplined hitters who will made for mistakes and make him pay for them

What site do you use for your line drive/fb/ground ball rates?

Not sure when you played the bet (or if you put it through yet) but 5d has Philly at +154 fyi

Any specific reason you're taking Miami for the whole game instead of 5 innings? Fernandez might only go 4-5 innings.
I was gonna grab the 5 inning line this morning- but the game line moved from +145 down to what it is now before the 5 inning lines came out so I'll leave it alone unless it goes back up

Dodgers pen is a mess and I trust they can get to both the starter and relievers.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 19, 2013
Messages
133
Tokens
I had been looking at St Louis and I just don't see how they would lose this game .. Even with normal bad luck you see .. So lets hope they really play motivated today.

good luck sherwood
 

New member
Joined
Mar 19, 2013
Messages
133
Tokens
Just wanted to add and you maybe right .. But I watched Miami play the padres for three games .. Miami never hit the ball out of the infield ... I think before I put money on them would have to see them be scoring 4/5 runs a game .. So their pitchers don't have to be perfect every game .... It was just hard to watch their ineptness hitting.
 

Member
Joined
Apr 29, 2010
Messages
7,640
Tokens
I like the cards play..BUT I BOUGHT IT DOWN... LINE WAS -162 AT GAMETIME.. I BOUGHT O.5 RUNS CARDS -1 -117 ONLY BECAUSE I KNOW THE CARDS HISTORY IN RUN LINE GAMES... PHIL AND ST LOUIS WILL KILL YOU ON RUN LINES -1.5!!!! GOOD LUCK!!!
logo_5.png

Range
W
L
P
+/- (Units)
Yesterday
1
1
0.00
0.00
Last 30 Days
38
32
0.00
+21.06
Season to Date
54
48
0.00
+25.22

<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are 2 units

ST. LOUIS -1½ +143 over Colorado

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Rockies are slowly coming back down to earth. After a scorching start that saw them win 13 of their first 17 games, the Rockies are now just four games above .500 with just six wins in their past 17 games. Jon Garland has had four quality starts in six tries but he pitches about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. In 36 innings, Garland has struck out 17 batters while walking 10. In other words, he pitches to contact. With a WHIP of 1.42, a line-drive rate of 30% and a xERA of 5.03, the only thing on the horizon for Garland is regression.
[FONT=arial !important]

Shelby Miller has fulfilled his ace potential so far, both on the surface (1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and beneath it. Miller has 38 K’s in 37 innings, 11 walks and a 45% groundball rate. With a tweak in control against LH bats, Miller could have even more upside, given his elite command vs. RH bats. This is an elite young talent that is certainly worth riding, especially with this Cardinal offense behind him against Garland.[/FONT]

[/FONT]
[/FONT]

Philadelphia +143 over ARIZONA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Phillies bullpen has a 4.27 ERA this year while the Diamondbacks pen has a nifty 2.87 ERA and it’s for that reason that we’ll play this pup in the first five innings only. Ian Kennedy has some nice skills but those skills may not be best suited for this park. This is the seventh straight season that Kennedy has a fly-ball bias profile. He has a 34%/40% GB/FB profile this season and when you throw in his 26% line-drive rate at this park, it makes him a high risk low reward proposition. With those batted ball percentages it should come as no surprise that Kennedy has one win in three starts at Chase Field with an ERA of 5.49. Kennedy’s fly-ball rate has been increasing over his past five starts to 43% and his GB rate over that same span has decreased to 33%. The Diamondbacks have won four straight but it came against the reeling Dodgers and they are just a game above .500 at home.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Philadelphia is 8-10 both at home and on the road. They are a middle of the pack outfit that will rarely sweep anyone or rarely get swept because they have some solid starting pitching. The Phillies have recalled Tyler Cloyd from Triple-A Lehigh Valley for this start. Cloyd bears watching. In six starts with the Phils last year, obviously a small sample size, he put up some solid skills right across the board despite the 4.91 ERA. Pay more attention to his 3o K’s in those 33 innings against just seven walks. Cloyd got off to a very slow start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley but seems to have righted the ship there in his last few starts. Notably on Saturday, Cloyd struck out 10 and walked none over eight innings against Indianapolis. Soft-tosser with great movement and excellent control was lights-out at AAA, with a 12-1 record and 2.35 ERA. He has a chance to stick around for a long time because he knows how to pitch. Cloyd offers up some tremendous profit potential so we’ll step in right away when his stock is low. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]

Miami +125 over LOS ANGELES
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Unlike the Dodgers, at least the Marlins know they are losers. Miami’s projected win total for the year was the second lowest in baseball while the experts suggested that the Dodgers will contend. Keep listening to the “so-called” experts and you’ll go broke fast. These are the same folks that also said the Blue Jays and Angels could meet in the ALCS. In any event, the Dodgers have dropped seven in a row and their 111 runs scored are the second worst in the majors. Matt Magill has made two starts at this level and there are plenty of signs of trouble. He’s already walked six batters in eight innings along with 10 hits for a 2.00 WHIP. Once you cross over a 1.50 WHIP, the minor leagues are not far behind and the only reason that Magill is pitching at this level is because of numerous injuries to the Dodgers starting staff. Magill has steadily progressed through the LA system since 2008 with a 3.77 ERA and .237 opp BA in 532.2 IP over that span. He does not possess typical starter stuff, relying on a slider/change-up combo but the results worked for him in the minors and he’ll keep testing it out at this level. Magill’s fastball is below average, topping out at 91 mph. Slider is his only plus offering and he uses it quite often to miss a lot of bats but he’s also erratic with it and these major league hitters are not going to swing away like they do in the minors. It may surprise you to learn that only seven teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than these Marlins The tell-tale sign of a successful transition to the majors will be whether or not he can get hitters to chase his slider consistently but so far the answer to that is no.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]

Jose Fernandez was recalled from the minors earlier than expected. After seeing his raw stuff, maybe it shouldn't have been so surprising. He has the fifth-highest average fastball velocity in MLB at 94.7 mph and it's a pitch that has a ton of horizontal movement. All of that has added up to these impressive skills: 32 K’s and 12 walks in 31 innings and a 53% groundball rate. This kid is the real deal. Fernandez has a very athletic frame that supports his strong arsenal of pitches. He throws a plus, plus sinking FB ranging from 93-97 that can top out at 99, a plus, plus slow curveball, a late breaking slider, and a change-up that has above-average potential and showing steady improvement. The Fish[/FONT] won’t win many games this season but Fernandez always gives them a chance and against the reeling Dodgers, their chances increase even more.
[/FONT][/FONT]


[/FONT]
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Just wanted to add and you maybe right .. But I watched Miami play the padres for three games .. Miami never hit the ball out of the infield ... I think before I put money on them would have to see them be scoring 4/5 runs a game .. So their pitchers don't have to be perfect every game .... It was just hard to watch their ineptness hitting.

And the Dodgers are scoring and winning? Not. In fact, Dodgers are hitting less than Miami with RISP and L.A. is a mess. Marlins have no expectations and are a loose team. That doesn't mean wins because they are junk but with Fernandez on the hill against Magill and taking back a tag, it's true value.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 29, 2012
Messages
31
Tokens
Nice work Sherwood! Always have great write-ups. Going to start a thread Sunday with my picks for the year. Needed to feel out the first month but I think I see how this year is going to go for me. UP! I wish I would of read the FIRST two sentence of your phillies pick. Have a great year and Goodluck:toast:
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Nice work Sherwood! Always have great write-ups. Going to start a thread Sunday with my picks for the year. Needed to feel out the first month but I think I see how this year is going to go for me. UP! I wish I would of read the FIRST two sentence of your phillies pick. Have a great year and Goodluck:toast:

Yeah, I should make that first 5 innings play more prevalent. It's usually highlighted but I didn't notice that it wasn't.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 3, 2009
Messages
10,190
Tokens
nice job sherwood,

don't post much in mlb mostly over in nba,,,, always like to see your posts here and hockey,, always a great read with your writeups and insight

thank you for your effort day in and day out ,, continued success

bol
 

New member
Joined
Mar 19, 2013
Messages
133
Tokens
Like I said Sherwood you probably win that bet on Miami and you did -- but after watching 3 games where they didn't hit the ball out of the infield vs the Padres -- well I just couldn't have that.

I don't really care how bad the opposing pitchers or teams are -- Miami is horrific so I've learned to always bet on teams that can score - or are motivated to come from behind -- Baltimore / Kansas City / Pittsburgh .. these teams never give up.

Anyway onto a new day .. cheers
 

New member
Joined
Sep 4, 2006
Messages
2,210
Tokens
Tailed you on the Marlins last night, terrific record keep it up.:toast:
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,767
Messages
13,438,805
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com