I have recently decided to attempt to learn how to handicap MLB, rather than tailing plays from others or making wagers with little to absolutely none of my own analysis. I hope to create several threads to organize my thoughts, document my progress and methods, and possibly receive feedback or generate discussion.
Many handicappers suggest creating power ratings for the individual teams as a starting point for the handicapping process. Although this is often suggested, I have found little advice or help in actually creating these power ratings.
I don't know how useful power rating each individual team in MLB would be for day to day wagers or totals, due to the intricacies of pitching matchups, umpires, previous games, historical scenarios, views of the betting public, etc., however, this would seem to be a decent start for the handicapping process, applying other factors to the underlying power ratings for a more complete analysis.
Where should one start to create these power ratings? Should one do this based on "feel", a combination of "feel" and statistics, or should this be essentially entirely statistics driven?
Should Pythagorean Expectation or a variant of this formula be the basis for the statistical portion of these power ratings? Should one also be looking to formulate recent Pythagorean Expectation "trends" (last 9, 18 games, etc.) into these power ratings? Any suggestions regarding Bill James' original formula, "Pythagenport", or "Pythagenpat"? Should this be calculated on an individual per game basis or can a simple current season calculation be sufficient? Should all games be weighted equally or should more weight be given to division games?
What other factors should be looked at when creating power ratings for beginning the handicapping process?
Many handicappers suggest creating power ratings for the individual teams as a starting point for the handicapping process. Although this is often suggested, I have found little advice or help in actually creating these power ratings.
I don't know how useful power rating each individual team in MLB would be for day to day wagers or totals, due to the intricacies of pitching matchups, umpires, previous games, historical scenarios, views of the betting public, etc., however, this would seem to be a decent start for the handicapping process, applying other factors to the underlying power ratings for a more complete analysis.
Where should one start to create these power ratings? Should one do this based on "feel", a combination of "feel" and statistics, or should this be essentially entirely statistics driven?
Should Pythagorean Expectation or a variant of this formula be the basis for the statistical portion of these power ratings? Should one also be looking to formulate recent Pythagorean Expectation "trends" (last 9, 18 games, etc.) into these power ratings? Any suggestions regarding Bill James' original formula, "Pythagenport", or "Pythagenpat"? Should this be calculated on an individual per game basis or can a simple current season calculation be sufficient? Should all games be weighted equally or should more weight be given to division games?
What other factors should be looked at when creating power ratings for beginning the handicapping process?
