| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +8.22 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 31 | 0.00 | +28.92 |
| Season to Date | 57 | 48 | 0.00 | +33.44 |
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All plays are 2 units
BOSTON -1½ +111 over Toronto
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Boston’s 5-0 victory was a flattering score last night for the Blue Jays. The Red Sox threatened to score in every inning. They had 10 hits, drew five walks and also got a couple of other base-runners via two Blue Jays errors. The Blue Jays had one hit. In a four-game losing streak last week, the Blue Jays were outscored 25-3. They are on another losing streak of three games in which they’ve been outscored 20-8. The Blue Jays are fade material. Brett Lawrie had a Twitter meltdown last week and the word around the league is that the inmates are running the asylum. The Jays pitching is awful, their pen is average, their hitting ranks second worst in the AL, ahead of only the White Sox and Toronto’s .351 winning percentage is ahead of only the Marlins and Astros. John Gibbons will be the first manager fired and it could come as early as Monday because the Blue Jays will not win a game this weekend. Toronto must rely on Mark Buehrle here.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Buehrle surrendered nine hits (two home runs) and seven earned runs while walking two and striking out five in six innings in a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays this past Monday. Buehrle entered the game having given up the most homers per nine innings in the American League with 2.1 and true to form, he allowed two more. Buehrle has one win in seven starts. He has a disturbing 1.56 WHIP, a low strikeout rate, a fly-ball bias profile, an incredibly disturbing 19% HR/F rate and he’s not loved in Toronto like he was in Chicago. Buerhle’s chances of success here are as remote as it can get.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Clay Buchholz has come close to throwing two no-hitters this season. He has a 1.60 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after his first seven starts. His base skills have been elite with 56 K’s in 51 innings and a 48% groundball rate. You might look at his 92 mph fastball and think he lacks the raw stuff to be an elite starter but a closer look reveals that his change-up draws the most horizontal movement in the game and his fastball has the most vertical movement. After posting nearly league-average surface stats in 2012, Buchholz's skills and stuff support his dominating start. He’ll now face a team that can’t win, can’t hit and whose collective heads are up their asses. Can this one go any other way? We think not.[/FONT]
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San Diego +131 over TAMPA BAY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball with 11 wins over their past 15 games and that includes a three-game sweep over the Giants and a series win over the Diamondbacks. They lost the opener here last night but had a three-run lead against Alex Cobb, a pitcher that was throwing pure smoke last night and that struck out an incredible 13 batters in just 4.2 innings before being yanked. The Padres get a much easier assignment here against Jeremy Hellickson. Helllickson is a former top prospect who continually outpitched his xERA in his first two full seasons in the majors but it’s finally caught up to him this season. Hellickson is no longer flipping average skills in a stellar final product, as his 4.79 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and one win in seven starts will attest to. Hellickson has a 40%/40% groundball/fly-ball profile and but that pedestrian split has been trending the wrong way to 34%/46% over Hellickson’s last five starts. Behind Hellickson is the majors’ third worst pen with an ERA of 4.79.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Rays are just 8-14 against right-handers this season and will face a new one here in Burch Smith. Drafted in the 14th round back in 2011, Smith has taken huge steps forward with his velocity while seeing his control and command continue to climb to an elite level. Smith shows three pitches: a plus fastball that sits easily in the 92-96 range, getting up to triple-digits in the past, an average changeup, and an average slurve. Due to his lack of secondary offerings, some see him profiling as a late-inning reliever but if he can continue to repeat his deceptive delivery and show plus control and command, he should fare well in the Padres rotation. With a short history in the minors (162 IP), it is hard to say how his transition will be but Smiths’ control, strikeout rate and ERA have all trended in the right direction since his first full season in Single-A Lake Elsinore. Smith has recorded a 1.15 ERA with a 37/6 K/BB over 31 IP, and a 55%/38% groundball/fly-ball split for Double-A San Antonio. It’s a big step up but if he gets through the first couple of innings, he has a chance to really make an impact.
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