Service Plays Monday 5/13/13

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Thunder at Grizzlies: What bettors need to know

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, 184.5)

Grizzlies lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Memphis Grizzlies haven’t forgotten the opportunity they let get away two seasons ago. They are in a similar situation Monday when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinal series. Memphis had a 2-1 lead over the Thunder in the 2011 semis but Oklahoma City notched an epic triple-overtime victory and eventually won the series. A win would put the Grizzlies in position of winning the series in Oklahoma City on Wednesday.

Thunder forward Kevin Durant is well aware of what happened in 2011 and doesn’t see the deficit as a cause for worry or panic. “Same situation we was in a few years ago, so we know how to handle it,” Durant said on Sunday. Memphis is facing better odds this time around with Oklahoma City star Russell Westbrook sidelined but know a loss will even the series with the Thunder having two of the final three at home. “We’re in the same position now,” said guard Tony Allen, “so it’s time for us to conquer that moment and take advantage of these games ahead of us and try to win two games.”

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City shot just 36.4 percent from the field in the Game 3 loss to drop its series accuracy rate to 39.9. The Thunder have been bottled up by the Memphis defense and miss the way Westbrook opens up the floor for easy scoring opportunities. Forward Serge Ibaka has been woeful with 12-for-39 shooting and guard Thabo Sefolosha is averaging only 4.3 points. Backup guard Kevin Martin scored 25 points in Game 1 and has just 19 on 8-of-28 shooting over the last two games. “This is a broken record but I know we can hit shots,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks said. “I’ve seen the ball go in the basket many, many times with our team and I have confidence that will happen and hopefully soon.”

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Allen is known for his standout defense but he has averaged 13 points – and 3.5 steals – in the two Memphis wins. He’s not a very good shooter but has stellar court presence and his hustle creates opportunities as well as his thefts on the defensive end. He pairs well with solid point guard Mike Conley to make things tough on opponents. Conley dropped to 14 points in Game 3 after his epic performance in Game 2 when he hit the go-ahead basket and had 26 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. Power forward Zach Randolph is coming off a subpar eight-point outing but is averaging 9.3 rebounds while thriving in the post with center Marc Gasol (averages of 21.3 points and eight rebounds).

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Thunder’s last five road games.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Oklahoma City is averaging just 89 points in the series. The Thunder averaged 105.7 during the regular season.

2. Durant has three straight double-doubles in the series and is averaging 32 points and 12.3 rebounds.

3. Grizzlies reserve F Quincy Pondexter is shooting 55.6 percent in the series and has made five 3-pointers.

Home team continues to cash in Rangers/Caps series

The home team has won each game of the opening-round playoff series between the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers.

Any $100 bettor would be up $461.42 if they had wagered on the home team in each game thus far.

The home team has outscored the visitor 15-8 in the series.

Game 7 is at the Verizon Center in Washington Monday. The last game at Verizon was a 2-1 Capitals' victory in Game 5.

Washington posted a 15-8-1 at home in the regular season.

The two teams need a seventh game to decide their Stanley Cup Playoff series for a second straight season.

MLB weather watch: Chance of rain in Minny

Check out the notable weather expected across the bigs on Monday:

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (-140, 8.5)

Site: Progressive Field

Temperatures will be in the mid-40s and sunny conditions are expected. Winds will blow in from left field at 12 mph.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (105, 8)

Site: Target Field

Temperatures will be in the low-70s and there’s a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow in right field at 12 mph.

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (-126, 8)

Site: Oakland Coliseum

Temperatures will be in the high-60s under clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Here are two streaking and two slumping starting pitchers set to take the hill Monday:

STREAKING

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (6-1, 1.59 ERA)

Zimmermann has won three consecutive starts. In his last 24 innings pitched, the righty has allowed one earned run on ten hits, while striking out 19. But the righty hasn't fared well in his previous two starts against his next opponent – the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a 5.25 ERA in two career starts against the Dodgers.

Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs (3-2, 2.33 ERA)

Woods has been one of the most consistent starters in the National League this season. The lefty hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in each of his seven starts and will get the ball against the Rockies Monday.

SLUMPING

Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers (2-2, 6.05 ERA)

The Brewers pushed Estrada’s start back to Monday against the Pirates to give him a few extra days to rest because his last two outings have been disastrous. The righty has been rocked for 13 earned runs in his last 8 1/3 innings pitched.

Justin Grimm, Texas Rangers (2-2, 3.45 ERA)

Grimm impressed in his first three outings of the season, picking up two wins and keeping his ERA to a stellar 1.59 mark. But the rookie has struggled in back-to-back starts, taking losses to the Chicago White Sox and Brewers. The righty has issued seven free passes during the losing skid. He walked only four in his previous three starts.

Rounding the bases: The best bets in the bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in Major League Baseball.

For the week of May 6-12.

Hot team: Cleveland Indians
Last week: 6-1
Season: 20-15
Upcoming schedule: vs. Yankees, at Phillies, vs. Mariners

Skinny: The Tribe completed a four-game sweep of the Athletics and took two of three from the Tigers in Detroit to grab a share of the lead in the AL Central Division.

Cold team: Milwaukee Brewers
Last week: 1-4
Season: 15-20
Upcoming schedule: at Pirates, at Cardinals

Skinny: The Brewers have dropped four straight and suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds over the weekend.

Over team: Tampa Bay Rays

Last week: 6-1 over/under
Season: 21-11-5
Upcoming schedule: vs. Red Sox, at Orioles

Skinny: The Rays played over the total in 14 straight games before finally playing under Sunday against the Padres.

Under team: New York Yankees

Last week: 1-5 over/under
Season: 15-18-3
Upcoming schedule: at Indians, vs. Mariners, vs. Blue Jays

Skinny: Yankees pitchers held their opponents to an average of 2.5 runs per game last week. New York went low in all three games of a set with Colorado to start the week and two of three against the Royals.

Heat at Bulls: What bettors need to know

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (7.5, 186.5)

Heat lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Chicago Bulls badly need victory to maintain a realistic chance of the winning the Eastern Conference semifinal series when they host the Miami Heat in Monday’s Game 4. The Heat have a 2-1 edge in the best-of-seven series and a third straight win would severely hinder Chicago’s attempts at an upset. The fifth-seeded Bulls are playing a physical brand of ball against the top-seeded Heat and figure to again be without starters Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich.

Miami star LeBron James was less than thrilled with Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau calling him a flopper after Game 3 and Thibodeau’s pointed comments about the officiating drew him a $35,000 fine on Sunday. James got mixed up with Chicago’s Nazr Mohammed and was called for a technical foul while Mohammed was ejected for shoving James to the floor. “I play an aggressive game,” James said. “I don’t flop. I’ve never been one of those guys.” Deng (complications from a recent spinal tap) is expected to miss his sixth straight game while Hinrich (calf) will likely sit out for the seventh consecutive game.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE HEAT: Center Chris Bosh was a force in Game 3 with 20 points and 19 rebounds after a quiet first two games in which he totaled 22 points and 11 boards. “I try to get behind the defense to get easy baskets, but if I move to the open spot, usually they find me,” Bosh said. “Those are my opportunities to be aggressive. If I’m open, I’m going to shoot or make the extra pass if need be.” Backup guard Norris Cole has been sensational in the series. Cole has made 16-of-20 shots – including all eight of his 3-pointers – while averaging 14.3 points.

ABOUT THE BULLS: Chicago has very little depth with Deng and Hinrich joining guard Derrick Rose (knee) on the sidelines and the situation was a factor in the Game 3 loss. Miami had a 36-8 edge in bench points and four Chicago starters played 42 or more minutes. Forward Jimmy Butler played 48 minutes for the second time in the series and the fourth time in five games. Butler had 21 points and 14 rebounds in Game 1 and said Sunday that the physical play is going to continue. “I feel like that’s what it’s been from the very beginning and I don’t expect it to change,” Butler said. “We’re coming in and we want to be the aggressor.”

TRENDS:

* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on 2 days of rest.
* Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 6-1 in Bulls’ last seven overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Heat’s last six Conference Semifinals games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Miami averaged 109.5 points in its two victories after scoring only 86 in the Game 1 loss.

2. James had a series-best 25 points in Game 3 and is averaging 22.7 points and 7.7 assists.

3. Bulls C Joakim Noah has two double-doubles in the series and five over his last seven games.

Heat seek 3-1 Series Lead Monday in Chicago

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4 - Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -8, Total: 187.5

The Bulls attempt to tie their Western Conference Semifinal series at two games apiece when they take on the Heat at United Center on Monday night.

Miami went into Chicago in Friday's Game 3 and came away with a 104-94 victory in a game where there was a lot of physical play. Since their shocking Game 1 home loss, the Heat have played great basketball, winning back-to-back games convincingly. Miami has now covered in four of its past five games, but Chicago, on the other hand, is 2-4 ATS in its past six contests and is just 4-6 ATS during the playoffs. The Bulls will likely be without SF Luol Deng (illness) and PG Kirk Hinrich (calf) yet again, as both don’t seem to be anywhere near returning to game action. Also, despite rumors about Derrick Rose making a return, the star point guard has said nothing about being available in Game 4 of this series.

The Heat played very well towards the end of Game 3, outscoring the Bulls 34-24 in the fourth quarter. SF LeBron James struggled from the field (6-of-17 FG), but he did finish the game with 25 points (11-of-11 FT), eight rebounds and seven assists in 44 minutes of play. James has 22.7 PPG, 7.7 APG and 7.0 RPG in the series so far. PF Chris Bosh was the Heat’s top player on the night, having his best game of the 2013 playoffs. Bosh played 42 minutes and contributed 20 points (8-of-16 FG) and 19 rebounds (5 offensive) while also blocking two shots. His work on the boards helped give his team a 39-37 rebounding advantage for the game. Miami also got a big performance off the bench out of PG Norris Cole, who played 24 minutes in the game and scored 18 points (6-of-7 FG, 3-of-3 threes). SG Dwyane Wade shot the ball only seven times in 36 minutes (5-for-7 FG), finishing the game with 10 points, five assists and four rebounds. Wade may not need to be aggressive in this series, but the Heat will need him to attack somewhere down the road in these playoffs.

The Bulls were right there at the end of the third quarter in Game 3, as the teams were tied 70-70. Somewhere late in the fourth quarter, the Chicago offense became stagnant and the Heat were able to take control of the game. The Bulls’ leading scorer in the game was PF Carlos Boozer, who gave his team 21 points (10-of-16 FG) and four rebounds in 29 minutes. C Joakim Noah, however, was the most important player for the Bulls. Noah was all over the court doing whatever was needed of him, tallying 15 points (6-of-12 FG), 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks. PG Nate Robinson struggled from downtown (1-of-7 threes), but he did play a strong offensive game with 17 points (5-of-13 FG), seven assists and six rebounds in 42 minutes of play. SF Jimmy Butler also scored 17 points (6-of-12 FG) with five boards, three assists and three steals. The Bulls shot just 7-of-22 threes (31.8%) as a team, whereas the Heat shot 8-of-20 (40.0%), but a bigger discrepancy was at the foul line where Miami was 26-of-30 (87%) and Chicago was just 17-of-25 (68%). Chicago is going to need more production from its bench (8 points on 3-of-11 FG on Friday), which went just two deep after the ejection of C Nazr Mohammed for pushing LeBron James.

Thunder Attempt to Even Series in Memphis on Monday

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 4 - Memphis leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -4.5, Total: 184.5

After two straight losses, Oklahoma City will try to regroup and tie up its playoff series in Memphis for Monday's Game 4.

While the Thunder are slumping in their past six games, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS, the Grizzlies enter Game 4 having won six of the past seven games SU, and racking up eight straight ATS victories. In Saturday's Game 3, Oklahoma City was held to 36.4% FG, marking its second-worst shooting game of the entire season. The only time the club shot worse was on March 20, when it made just 35.7% FG in a contest that also occurred at FedEx Forum in Memphis. This is no coincidence, as the Grizzlies lead the NBA in scoring defense at 89.6 PPG and have allowed just 87.0 PPG on 42.6% FG in their 45 home games this season. That has led to a 36-9 SU merk (80%) and 27-16-2 ATS record (63%) in Memphis, making them the NBA's third-best wager at home. But the Thunder have the second-best road record in the league at 28-17 SU (62%), are a solid wager away from home at 54% ATS (23-20-2 ATS). Oklahoma City has also been quite resilient, going 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) following an SU loss this season, and the club is also 42-17 SU and 34-24-1 ATS (59%) with one day of rest. However, the Grizzlies are 37-22-2 ATS (63%) after an SU win, and a whopping 67% ATS (33-16-2 ATS) with just one day of rest this season.

Oklahoma City has really struggled to run its offense this series without injured PG Russell Westbrook, averaging just 89.0 PPG on 39.9% FG and 33.3% threes as a team. In the first round of the postseason, the Thunder produced 105.8 PPG on 45% FG and 36% threes over the six games versus Houston. They also have more turnovers (15.0 TOPG) than assists (13.3 APG) in this series versus Memphis, but they did dominate both fast-break points (23 to 7) and points in the paint (44 to 30) in their Game 3 defeat. SF Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 6.7 APG in series) has kept his team competitive versus Memphis, knocking down 50% of his shots and leading the club in both steals (1.7 SPG) and Ast/TO ratio (1.8). But after averaging 35.5 PPG in Games 1 and 2, Durant was held to 25 points in Game 3, making 9-of-19 FG and 2-of-6 threes. PG Reggie Jackson (12.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG in series) had his best game of the series on Saturday, recording a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds. However Jackson has produced just six assists and five turnovers so far this series. SG Kevin Martin (14.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG in series) started this series with a huge 25-point performance on 8-of-14 FG in Game 1, but in the past two losses, he's scored just 9.5 PPG on 8-of-28 FG (29%) and 1-of-5 threes. PF Serge Ibaka (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.3 BPG in series) has also shot terribly this series (12-of-39 FG, 31%), but he is coming off his best game of the series on Saturday when he scored 13 points (6-of-17 FG though) with 10 rebounds and four blocks. PG Derek Fisher (11.7 PPG in series) has shot very well in this series at 50% FG and 7-of-13 threes, but has totaled a mere one assist in his 78 minutes of action this round.

The Grizzlies haven't been blistering the nets either this series with a mere 92.3 PPG on 41.7% FG and 31.3% threes. But they have been better protecting the basketball with a 1.5 Ast/TO ratio (17.0 APG, 11.7 TOPG), and have created more havoc with 7.7 steals per game. Both C Marc Gasol (21.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.0 APG in series) and PG Mike Conley (17.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 6.0 APG in series) have made great decisions in the three matchups, combining for 30 assists and just 13 turnovers (2.31 Ast/TO ratio). In Game 3, the duo combined for 34 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists and a +18 rating. PF Zach Randolph (13.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG in series) averaged 20.8 PPG in the first-round series versus the Clippers, but he has struggled offensively this series going up against Ibaka, scoring 18, 15 and 8 points, while shooting 42.5% from the floor and getting to the foul line a combined 12 times in the three games. SG Tony Allen (9.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 SPG in series) was a non-factor in the Game 1 loss with three points and zero steals, but in the past two victories, he's shined on both ends of the floor, totaling 26 points and seven steals. Memphis got great production from its bench on Saturday, most notably with PG Jerryd Bayless (9.3 PPG in series) tallying 11 points and four rebounds, and SF Quincy Pondexter (9.0 PPG on 56% FG in series) scoring nine points on 4-of-5 shooting.

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/13/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 841-397 (.679)
ATS: 664-605 (.523)
ATS Vary Units: 1658-1551 (.517)
Over/Under: 651-618 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 892-826 (.519)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #4
Miami 97, CHICAGO 92

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #4
MEMPHIS 97, Oklahoma City 93

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/13/13 Predictions

Season: 303-190 (.615)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #7
WASHINGTON 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
BOSTON 3, Toronto 2

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Miami at Chicago[/h] The Heat look to follow up their 104-94 win in Game 3 and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Texas at Oakland[/h] The Rangers look to take advantage of an Oakland team that is coming off a 6-1 loss to Seattle yesterday and is 1-7 in its last 8 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Texas is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

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