| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.10 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 33 | 0.00 | +17.59 |
| Season to Date | 57 | 51 | 0.00 | +27.34 |
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All plays are 2 units
Atlanta/ARIZONA over 8 +103
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Its spacious outfield makes it ripe for doubles and triples. The thin desert air in Phoenix is also conducive to power hitters, as balls will travel a great distance in the air, even when the park's retractable roof is engaged to cut down on the desert heat.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The two pitchers going tonight do not have positive results against the team they’ll be facing. Current Diamondbacks have 10 hits in 31 career AB’s versus Mike Minor and current Braves have an astonishing eight hits in 44 AB’s (.444) against lefty Wade Miley. Incidentally, the Braves have won eight of 12 games against southpaws. Atlanta last came into this park in April of 2012 for a four-game series. The final scores read 6-4, 3-2, 9-1 and 10-2 with Atlanta winning three of the four games. The Braves thrived here last season and there’s no reason they can’t put up a bunch more today. It may sound like we’re making a pretty good case for Atlanta to win but Mike Minor’s 52% fly-ball bias profile is one that is very likely going to run into some trouble at this park. Too many factors point to the over and that’s precisely the way we’ll play it.[/FONT]
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Texas +113 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Rangers are heating up with four wins in a row and seven wins in their past nine games. Justin Grimm has been one of the surprises of the young season. He’s certainly making a case for himself to claim a secure spot in the Rangers' rotation. Grimm has struck out 31 batters in 29 frames while walking 11 and comes in with a skills supported 3.45 ERA. Grimm’s groundball rate is 43% and his line-drive rate is just 17%. While he has a plus fastball at times (up to 96) and a power curve, he was never been a big strikeout pitcher in the minors. Instead, he relied on his ability to throw quality pitches with great control. That has now changed, as Grimm has made some adjustments, he’s using a changeup to give to now give him three usable pitches and he’s missing a lot of bats. Oakland's offense is a bit decimated due to outfield injuries and the park factors certainly favor a young pitcher looking to build on early-season success. Expect that success to continue here for Grimm.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Oakland is heading in the wrong direction. The A’s have dropped six of seven while scoring three runs or fewer in all six losses. Over their past 10 games, the A’s are batting a combined .208, which is the AL’s worst mark and so is their 25 runs scored over that same stretch. We’ve been fading A.J. Griffin quite a bit so far and we’re surely not going to pull up the reins here. Griffin’s skills are among the worst in the business with a troubling batted ball profile of 29% groundballs, 25% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. Over his past four starts, Griffin’s batted ball profile is even worse at 26%/26%/48% GB/LD/FB. Griffin’s ERA is a respectable 3.83 but it’s been due to an unsustainable strand rate of 83%. Griffin has been getting hit hard the entire year. Almost every out is hit to the warning track or is a frozen rope hit right at someone. This is the profile of a pitcher that is going to get crushed and while Griffin could be lucky again here, he’s prime fade material. There is no question that Texas and Grimm offer up some of the best value of the season so far against Griffin and the reeling A’s.
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Atlanta/ARIZONA over 8 +103
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Chase Field is one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Its spacious outfield makes it ripe for doubles and triples. The thin desert air in Phoenix is also conducive to power hitters, as balls will travel a great distance in the air, even when the park's retractable roof is engaged to cut down on the desert heat.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The two pitchers going tonight do not have positive results against the team they’ll be facing. Current Diamondbacks have 10 hits in 31 career AB’s versus Mike Minor and current Braves have an astonishing eight hits in 44 AB’s (.444) against lefty Wade Miley. Incidentally, the Braves have won eight of 12 games against southpaws. Atlanta last came into this park in April of 2012 for a four-game series. The final scores read 6-4, 3-2, 9-1 and 10-2 with Atlanta winning three of the four games. The Braves thrived here last season and there’s no reason they can’t put up a bunch more today. It may sound like we’re making a pretty good case for Atlanta to win but Mike Minor’s 52% fly-ball bias profile is one that is very likely going to run into some trouble at this park. Too many factors point to the over and that’s precisely the way we’ll play it.[/FONT]
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Texas +113 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Rangers are heating up with four wins in a row and seven wins in their past nine games. Justin Grimm has been one of the surprises of the young season. He’s certainly making a case for himself to claim a secure spot in the Rangers' rotation. Grimm has struck out 31 batters in 29 frames while walking 11 and comes in with a skills supported 3.45 ERA. Grimm’s groundball rate is 43% and his line-drive rate is just 17%. While he has a plus fastball at times (up to 96) and a power curve, he was never been a big strikeout pitcher in the minors. Instead, he relied on his ability to throw quality pitches with great control. That has now changed, as Grimm has made some adjustments, he’s using a changeup to give to now give him three usable pitches and he’s missing a lot of bats. Oakland's offense is a bit decimated due to outfield injuries and the park factors certainly favor a young pitcher looking to build on early-season success. Expect that success to continue here for Grimm.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Oakland is heading in the wrong direction. The A’s have dropped six of seven while scoring three runs or fewer in all six losses. Over their past 10 games, the A’s are batting a combined .208, which is the AL’s worst mark and so is their 25 runs scored over that same stretch. We’ve been fading A.J. Griffin quite a bit so far and we’re surely not going to pull up the reins here. Griffin’s skills are among the worst in the business with a troubling batted ball profile of 29% groundballs, 25% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. Over his past four starts, Griffin’s batted ball profile is even worse at 26%/26%/48% GB/LD/FB. Griffin’s ERA is a respectable 3.83 but it’s been due to an unsustainable strand rate of 83%. Griffin has been getting hit hard the entire year. Almost every out is hit to the warning track or is a frozen rope hit right at someone. This is the profile of a pitcher that is going to get crushed and while Griffin could be lucky again here, he’s prime fade material. There is no question that Texas and Grimm offer up some of the best value of the season so far against Griffin and the reeling A’s.
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