| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.06 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 33 | 0.00 | +17.45 |
| Season to Date | 58 | 52 | 0.00 | +27.40 |
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Texas -107 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Despite winning last night, the A’s are a team that is going to continue to go backwards because of an extremely weak hitting line-up. The A’s have a first baseman that is hitting .143 and four other regulars that are all hitting under .250. Oakland’s best hitter is Josh Donaldson (.301) but Donaldson is a career .251 hitter so there is likely regression coming from him too. You really have to admire and respect a guy who shows solid growth and posts career-best pinpoint control at such an advanced age. Oh... wait, it’s Bartolo Colon we’re talking about, a 40-year-old pitcher that has never seen a hamburger he didn’t like. Colon was crushed in his last start in Cleveland. His ERA is up to 4.57 and he’s allowed four jacks over his past two starts. In four home starts, Colon’s ERA is 4.26 and his xERA is 4.96. Colon will have some decent starts because of that pinpoint control but he’s a risk every time he takes the hill and he’s also extremely overvalued in this spot against the Rangers and Derek Holland.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
We’re not sure the oddsmakers realize just how good Derek Holland is. Not only is Holland an intense, focused and determined pitcher that wants to thrive more than anyone, no pitcher works harder to improve his skills and it’s paying off. Over his last six starts, Holland has been taken yard just one time. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of his seven starts. Holland has a BAA of .222, a WHIP of 1.01, a groundball bias profile and 43 K’s in 49 frames. These are the seeds of an elite pitcher with outstanding skills right across the board, yet Derek Holland is being priced in the same range as #3 and #4 starters. Buy low my friends. Play: TEXAS-107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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MINNESOTA +103 over Chicago
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The White Sox are six games under .500 Their 123 runs scored are dead last in the AL and only ahead of the Marlins 108 runs scored in the entire league. The South Side is favored here because Jake Peavy comes in with strong past credentials to go along with a 3.03 ERA this season. He also has four wins in six starts and to his credit Peavy has 45 K’s and a 1.06 WHIP. However, he’s also been dealing with back spasms recently. His high strikeout rate likely will erode some since his 8.5% swinging strike rate is well less than the 11-13% marks he regularly posted at his peak. With a nagging back problem, Peavy may be good for six innings here if everything goes well but baseball is a nine inning game. [/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Kevin Correia has a favorable start here vs the White Sox. Correia has made four home starts in his young career as a member of the Twins, three of which has been pure quality. In two of those starts, he shut down good offenses (Rangers and Tigers). Today's opposing offense is the weakest in the AL, as the White Sox have just a .227 BA and are averaging only 3.4 runs per game. If the game is close heading to the final three innings, the Twins chances of winning increase greatly because of Minnesota’s superior hitting and a superior bullpen. In fact, Chicago’s bullpen has an ugly 1.42 WHIP to go along with an xERA of 3.93 while the Twinkies pen has a 1.17 WHIP to go along with a 3.50 xERA. The Twins have won six of 10 and they’re hitting .270 over that span while the South Side has Adam Dunn. Nuff said. Wrong side favored. Play: Minnesota +103 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Cleveland -1½ +144 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Scott Kazmir is working on a three start pure quality start streak, which was highlighted by a 10 K performance his last time out against Oakland at Progressive Field. In this one, Kazmir visits the Phillies, who have been struggling to hit left-handed pitching (.220 BA against). Kazmir's surface stats—4.87 ERA and 1.43 WHIP—do not look appetizing, yet his 3.54 xERA, high strikeout rate and trending groundball bias profile are signs that this may be a comeback year. Over his last 12 innings covering two starts, Kazmir has allowed just 10 hits while fanning 17 batters. Remember, Kazmir threw 11 scoreless innings in the spring while leading the staff with 13 strikeouts aty one point before a minor injury sidelined him just before the start of the season. Prior to that, Kazmir had made one start in two years and here’s what he had to say about that, “I had time to take a step back and go back to the drawing board and kind of figure out what came naturally to me,' said Kazmir. 'With time off, it really helped me out. I was able to correct myself”. Kazmir made undisclosed mechanical adjustments and has gained 10 mph on his fastball. Kazmir looks great out there and he’s gaining more confidence with each passing start. This is a dangerous pitcher throwing for a strong hitting team and that’s a good combination.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Jonathan Pettibone comes in with a 2-0 record in his first four major league starts and he brings a respectable 3.63 ERA with him. Now is the time to sell high because at this park, he’s numbers are in for a big time correction. In those four starts, Pettibone has faced the Pirates and Marlins at home and the Mets and Giants on the road. That’s about the easiest four-game stretch he’ll ever see. A look under the hood reveals that Pettibone’s xERA is 6.23. In his last start he walked four batters while striking out just one and anything similar to that here and he’ll get buried. Pettibone has faced two weak hitting clubs at Citizen Banks Field and he’s pitched two games at two different pitcher’s parks. Pettibone is eventually going to pay the price for his unsustainable 83% strand rate and this is as good a spot as any to cash in on it. Play: Cleveland -1½ +143 (Risking 2 units).
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