Tonight I fade a Hall of Fame pitcher ... ANALYSIS

Peavy. Yes, he's a Hall of Famer and a superstar. Yes, he has had much success against the Twins. But tonight he gets faded. Let me break it down.

In his three road starts against the Twins last year, he was very good but not a shut-out pitcher, posting a 2.70 ERA and going 2-1. Why would I fade that? Couple reasons. First, Correia is 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this year. And who did he do that to? The Rangers and Tigers, among others. Peavy in night games this year: 4.82 ERA and 6 HRs surrendered in only 18 innings. Ouch! How about on the road? He's given up 5 HR in only 19 innings. And last year Peavy was far from intimidating on the road, going 5-8 with a 3.69 ERA. He has struggled with back spasms alot the last two years, so you never what condition this cat is in. Give me the guy who is 4-0 at home.

Now a reality check. Simply put, Peavy could throw a perfect game and the White Sox would lose by scoring NEGATIVE runs. I'm not joking! This team has the 29th ranked On-Base Percentage in the MLB in road games. Only the Cubs are worse in that category. In their last 7 road games, the White Sox have averaged only 2.57 runs per game. They are on 7-12 in road games. Meanwhile, the Twins average exactly 5 runs per game at home. If Correia just hangs with Peavy at all -- and all signs say he will with ease -- Sox will lose this game late.

This is the White Sox line-up, showing their batting average vs rightes (Correia):

DeAza .225
Keppinger .185
Rios .243
Dunn .141
Wells .143
Viciendo .229
Ramirez .200
Flowers .189
Greene .300

Now look at the Twins. Four batters hitting better than .300 vs righties, and Dozier is hitting .385 vs Peavy; Mauer is .310 vs Peavy; Parmalee is .455 vs Peavy; Plouffe is .250 vs Peavy (all a minimum of five at bats).

Money Stat: Peavy has a chance to win his fourth start in a row tonight. He hasn't done that since 2009. What are the odds that he does something he hasn't done in four years? Not good.

Money Stat #2: Twins are 2-0 in Tuesdays at home; Sox are 1-3 in Tuesdays on the road.

Have you seen enough? I have. Twins win 5-2.

I'm 8-4 in May, fading not advised.

BOOK ME.

TWINS
(-105) $200 to win $190

i think his hof status is questionable... but good luck nonetheless

I like your Pick for the game, But I am going Peavy First Five.................

This is one of those games I had picked out ... CWS are Fade Material because they score very few runs - so the opposition is always in the game till the last pitch -- and they struggle to catch up when they are behind.

Minn seems to be scoring more freely lately compared to CWS - and sometimes the quality of the pitcher doesn't matter so much - as no pitcher goes undefeated for the season.

I put quite alot on this game - so hopefully Minn can pull it out .. cheers.

Totally agree Vaux...on it...more elegant reasoning however...bol all

Don't understand the double post...sorry

Totally agree Vaux...on it...more elegant reasoning however...bol all

I can't confirm if this is true but Sherwood reporting back spasms for Peavy which is why he has been off lately.

The White Sox are six games under .500 Their 123 runs scored are dead last in the AL and only ahead of the Marlins 108 runs scored in the entire league. The South Side is favored here because Jake Peavy comes in with strong past credentials to go along with a 3.03 ERA this season. He also has four wins in six starts and to his credit Peavy has 45 K’s and a 1.06 WHIP. However, he’s also been dealing with back spasms recently. His high strikeout rate likely will erode some since his 8.5% swinging strike rate is well less than the 11-13% marks he regularly posted at his peak. With a nagging back problem, Peavy may be good for six innings here if everything goes well but baseball is a nine inning game.

The boards all over various sites were on Twins tonight. When the world loves a dog like this one tonight it usually loses. Could not find one white sox backer tonight. Looks like an easy win for Peavy.

peavy, hof. that's not happening.

well don't count Minn out so easy .. we gotta get to the 9th inning yet.

you can't expect CWS to score much more than 2-3 runs -- so its up to Minn Hitters to get some momentum.

Dumb move by Gardenhire, leaving Correia out there too long. You use the BP in the eighth inning. Probably cost the twins the game.