| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 38 | 34 | 0.00 | +17.45 |
| Season to Date | 59 | 54 | 0.00 | +25.40 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Cleveland +148 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]As we saw with Roy Halladay, ballplayers often overestimate their ability to play through an injury. As Halladay lurched from bad outing to bad outing through March, April, and May, it became obvious to most observers that he was not healthy, long before he actually admitted as much. Halladay is not the only offender. Plenty of other players around MLB are doing the same thing right now, and just haven't gotten to the point of giving up and admitting to their injury. Some of those players are currently baffling us with slow starts and one of those players is Phillies starter Cole Hamels. Hamels has a glaring flaw in his skill set so far this year. His control is completely out of character, as he hasn't thrown this many balls since his 2006 rookie season. Combine that with erosion of his strikeout rate and there is reason to be concerned. Hamels is 0-3 at home with a 4.71 ERA and this Cleveland squad is very capable of putting up a crooked number. Hamel’s teammate Halladay has gotten all the scrutiny and maybe this is a case where Hamels is trying to pitch through something to help the team because he knew Halladay's situation was worse. Hamels did complain of shoulder stiffness early this spring. Results since then strongly suggest that all is not well. Simply put, a healthy Cole Hamels does not pitch like this.[FONT=arial !important]
Corey Kluber’s surface stats are not pretty and that provides us with an outstanding buy low opportunity. A look under the hood and there is something profitable here. Kluber’s 5.64 ERA so far is more a product of bad luck than poor pitching. Kluber has a 37%/65% hit-rate/strand-rate and that has been the main culprit for his misleading ERA. A 3.85 xERA and 20/6 K/BB through 22 innings indicate there's a decent chance at some good numbers in this matchup against a Philadelphia lineup with the third-lowest OPS in the NL (.678). Nice overlay in this one gets the call. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]ST. LOUIS -1½ +104 over N.Y. Mets
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We almost always refrain from backing a pitcher coming off a complete game gem because what follows is usually a letdown but Shelby Miller is different. Miller is as good a prospect as Stephen Strasburg was when he came up without all the hype. Miller’s skills are electric with 51 K’s against just 11 walks in 46 frames. His WHIP is down to 0.88, his ERA is 1.58 and his xERA of 2.41 is tops in the majors. Miller is coming off a one-hit, 13-strikeout performance against the Rockies but he’s not going to need to be nearly as fine here because his mound opponent is Shaun Marcum.[FONT=arial !important]
Marcum hasn't been the same in four appearances since coming back from a neck injury. His fastball is topping out at only 85 mph and he hasn't been able to make it to the 5th inning in any start yet, resulting in three disasters. Marcum comes in with a BAA of .400 after allowing 24 hits in just 14.2 frames. There are more concerns than a velocity decrease also. Marcum’s batted ball profile is one of the more disturbing one’s in MLB. A 31%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is all the proof one needs to see that Marcum is laboring to get through each inning. With six walks in 15 frames, a 2.05 WHIP, a 8.59 ERA and those ugly batted ball rates, this is the profile of a pitcher in real peril. Marcum has been regressing badly for years and if the Mets weren’t playing him 4M this season, they probably wouldn’t even be using him. Instead, the Mets are trying to squeeze a few more innings out of this bust and that allows us to cash in. Cardinals roll again.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]San Francisco +102 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]When Ramon Ortiz took the hill against the Red Sox in Toronto in his last start, he escaped with a five-inning, four hit, one-run performance. It was his first start back in the majors since 2011. Ortiz has made just 15 starts since 2007. He’s a 40-year old stiff with poor skills that is fill-in fodder until the Blue Jays get some healthy bodies back. He’s here because of experience only. In that five-inning performance against Boston, Ortiz was in trouble every inning. He walked five batters while striking out just one and overall in his two appearances (one out of the pen) Ortiz has a 1.80 WHIP. Ortiz last provided profit potential in 2002 and spent 2012 in AAA-Scranton-Wilkes-Barre (NYY affiliate) rotation, with 27 starts. Now at age 40, with one good 2013 start at AAA-Buffalo and one extremely lucky one at this level, Ortiz gets another start and he’s favored over Ryan Vogelsong and the World Series champs.[FONT=arial !important]
The Giants are going to wake up this morning and see that Ortiz is favored over them. Not only is that ludicrous, it’s a complete insult to Ryan Vogelsong and the entire team. The Giants may even hang up the betting line on their clubhouse bulletin board. Ryan Vogelsong has a rough 7.78 ERA and 1.73 WHIP after 39 IP but those marks have been inflated by a 37% hit%, a 58% strand % and 19% hr/f. That is all pure bad luck. Vogelsong’s skills have been rock solid with 37 K’s in 39 frames, 15 walks, and a 41% groundball rate. Vogelsong has plenty of good starts left in him while Ortiz has none. If you make one bet today, this should be it.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Kansas City +104 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Royals are two games over .500 while the Halos are nine games under and now the league’s worst pitcher is favored for the team that is nine games under? Say what? Barry Enright is the best option the Angels have in a poor group of potential call-ups. Enright won over Aaron Heilman and Armando Gallarraga not because he was pitching well, but because the other two were pitching so poorly. As a result, Enright got the promotion and a break when his call-up coincided with a game in Chicago against the light hitting White Sox. All Enright did was walk five batters in 3.1 innings and was yanked after allowing five runs. Enright had a 3.91 ERA in 99 innings for Arizona in 2010 and that was his last season in the majors that he threw any significant amount of innings. The past two seasons in the majors were both short-lived as Enright threw a combined 40 innings over that span and posted a 7.41 ERA and 14.73 ERA respectively. We’re not even sure why this guy is still around. He has the worst set of skills we’ve ever seen. Enright’s MLB profile over 146 career innings reads as follows: a 26% groundball rate, a 29% line-drive rate and a 45% fly-ball rate. He also has a low strikeout rate (76 K’s in 146 IP) and a high walk total (50 BB in 146 IP). Enright is a disaster waiting to happen. That moderate success he had in Arizona three years ago was a complete mirage and he’s been dealing batting practice ever since. This is not major league material, instead it’s prime fade material and the fact that he’s favored over anyone is ludicrous.[FONT=arial !important]
Wade Davis is a risk too. He’s been bouncing around between the starter’s role and the bullpen for years. He’s always had decent skills but he has not been able to sustain any consistency whatsoever. However, he still has 28 K’s in 35 innings this year and has been hurt by an unlucky 71% strand rate. Even more interesting is that the total in this game is 8½ and that strongly suggests one of these pitchers is likely to throw a decent game. The chances of Enright throwing a good game are about the same as Manti Te'o’s girlfriend showing up at his NFL debut. This is a pure fade on Enright.
[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
