| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +5.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 34 | 0.00 | +22.53 |
| Season to Date | 62 | 55 | 0.00 | +30.52 |
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TAMPA BAY -1½ +148 over Boston
[FONT=arial !important]T[FONT=arial !important]he Red Sox are coming off a 9-2 win last night but that was just their second win in their past eight games. Felix Doubront is set to return to the rotation after being temporarily moved to the bullpen. In his last two appearances, one of which was out of the bullpen, Doubront has allowed 23 hits and 12 earned runs over nine innings. His strikeout rate and control are all almost identical to last season but his confidence has slipped and so has his velocity. In three starts versus Tampa Bay last season, he was hit pretty hard and the Rays have been hitting left-handed pitching well this season, to the tune of a .286 BA and .790 OPS. Additionally, The Rays are 14-7 at home and against southpaws at home they are 7-2.
[FONT=arial !important]Alex Cobb had an extremely unusual start in his last time out, striking out 13 in just 4.2 innings, while throwing 117 pitches. That is an example of how dominating this right-hander has the potential to be. The Rays have won four of Cobb’s last five starts and all of those win were by three runs or more. Cobb is 3-0 at home with an ERA of 1.95. He’s always enjoyed pitching at home, where he has a career 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 127.1 IP. Cobb is on the verge of something special with a sinker that he’s beginning to master. Batters had a .333 BA and .523 SLG % against his sinker in 2012. They have a .143 BA and .179 SLG % against it so far in 2013. He also has a 52% groundball rate and, 46 K’s in 47 innings and a very impressive 3.03 xERA. This one sets up perfectly for Cobb to dominate and for the Rays to continue to thrive at home against lefties. [/FONT]
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Milwaukee +130 over PITTSBURGH (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Francisco Liriano made his season debut last week against the Mets in New York and it was a nice looking pitching line. Liriano threw 5.1 innings, allowed six hits and struck out nine batters. He also was credited with the win and now his pitching form says 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA. What his pitching line on paper doesn’t reveal is that every ball was scorched. 42% of the batted balls were line-drives and just 25% of batted balls were hit on the ground. It was pure luck that the Mets didn’t score six or more off him. Liriano’s high-wire act has grown tiresome. Last season, neither a temporary move to bullpen nor change of scenery helped him find the plate and his GB% continues to fade. Liriano has topped 160 IP once in four seasons. Two straight years of an atrociously high percentage of disaster starts makes 2010 feel like a distant memory. Liriano is not back and offers up tremendous profit potential as a constant fade and that’s precisely what we’re going to do.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Hiram Burgos has made just four starts and he comes in with a 1-1 record to go along with an ugly 6.86 ERA. However, that inflated ERA is due to one bad start in Cincinnati, where Burgos lasted just three innings and surrendered 1o earned runs. In his other three starts against the Cubbies, Dodgers and these same Pirates, Burgos allowed just 13 hits and six earned runs in 18 innings. Burgos has been in the Brewers system since 2009 but struggled to find consistent success, never moving behind High-A in his first three minor league seasons. He really turned the corner in 2012, when he had the third lowest ERA of any minor league pitcher, posting the following numbers across three levels: 10-4, 1.95 ERA and .210 oppBA. Burgos does not have dominant stuff but he can throw five pitches—fastball, slider, change-up, cutter, and curveball—with good control in any count. Burgos will not be rattled over that last start in Cincinnati. He’s always shown the ability to bounce back after a rough start in the minors and he’ll also have some comfort in knowing he pitched his best game against these Pirates on May 1. This choice is not about backing Burgos, it’s all about fading a Liriano and it’s for that reason, we’ll play this one in the first five innings only.
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[FONT=arial !important]T[FONT=arial !important]he Red Sox are coming off a 9-2 win last night but that was just their second win in their past eight games. Felix Doubront is set to return to the rotation after being temporarily moved to the bullpen. In his last two appearances, one of which was out of the bullpen, Doubront has allowed 23 hits and 12 earned runs over nine innings. His strikeout rate and control are all almost identical to last season but his confidence has slipped and so has his velocity. In three starts versus Tampa Bay last season, he was hit pretty hard and the Rays have been hitting left-handed pitching well this season, to the tune of a .286 BA and .790 OPS. Additionally, The Rays are 14-7 at home and against southpaws at home they are 7-2.
[FONT=arial !important]Alex Cobb had an extremely unusual start in his last time out, striking out 13 in just 4.2 innings, while throwing 117 pitches. That is an example of how dominating this right-hander has the potential to be. The Rays have won four of Cobb’s last five starts and all of those win were by three runs or more. Cobb is 3-0 at home with an ERA of 1.95. He’s always enjoyed pitching at home, where he has a career 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 127.1 IP. Cobb is on the verge of something special with a sinker that he’s beginning to master. Batters had a .333 BA and .523 SLG % against his sinker in 2012. They have a .143 BA and .179 SLG % against it so far in 2013. He also has a 52% groundball rate and, 46 K’s in 47 innings and a very impressive 3.03 xERA. This one sets up perfectly for Cobb to dominate and for the Rays to continue to thrive at home against lefties. [/FONT]
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Milwaukee +130 over PITTSBURGH (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Francisco Liriano made his season debut last week against the Mets in New York and it was a nice looking pitching line. Liriano threw 5.1 innings, allowed six hits and struck out nine batters. He also was credited with the win and now his pitching form says 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA. What his pitching line on paper doesn’t reveal is that every ball was scorched. 42% of the batted balls were line-drives and just 25% of batted balls were hit on the ground. It was pure luck that the Mets didn’t score six or more off him. Liriano’s high-wire act has grown tiresome. Last season, neither a temporary move to bullpen nor change of scenery helped him find the plate and his GB% continues to fade. Liriano has topped 160 IP once in four seasons. Two straight years of an atrociously high percentage of disaster starts makes 2010 feel like a distant memory. Liriano is not back and offers up tremendous profit potential as a constant fade and that’s precisely what we’re going to do.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Hiram Burgos has made just four starts and he comes in with a 1-1 record to go along with an ugly 6.86 ERA. However, that inflated ERA is due to one bad start in Cincinnati, where Burgos lasted just three innings and surrendered 1o earned runs. In his other three starts against the Cubbies, Dodgers and these same Pirates, Burgos allowed just 13 hits and six earned runs in 18 innings. Burgos has been in the Brewers system since 2009 but struggled to find consistent success, never moving behind High-A in his first three minor league seasons. He really turned the corner in 2012, when he had the third lowest ERA of any minor league pitcher, posting the following numbers across three levels: 10-4, 1.95 ERA and .210 oppBA. Burgos does not have dominant stuff but he can throw five pitches—fastball, slider, change-up, cutter, and curveball—with good control in any count. Burgos will not be rattled over that last start in Cincinnati. He’s always shown the ability to bounce back after a rough start in the minors and he’ll also have some comfort in knowing he pitched his best game against these Pirates on May 1. This choice is not about backing Burgos, it’s all about fading a Liriano and it’s for that reason, we’ll play this one in the first five innings only.
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