Service Plays Saturday 5/18/13

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SB Professor MMA Picks 5/18

Luke Rockhold (-130) over Vitor Belfort

In with the old out with the new, it is Rockhold's time, Belfort is on the decline - don't read too much into his near armbar of Jon Jones, he was getting killed for most of that fight.

UFC on FX 8 betting: Belfort undervalued by MMA public
By MMAODDSBREAKER

Vitor Belfort is once again being underrated by the betting public.

The former UFC light heavyweight champion takes on former Strikeforce middleweight champion Luke Rockhold in the main event of UFC on FX 8 in Jaragua do Sul, Brazil Saturday. Sportsbooks currently have Belfort priced as a +105 underdog while Rockhold is coming back as the favorite at -125.

Even if Rockhold is the “sharp” side in this fight, I’m shocked the public is on him. MMA Oddsbreaker opened up Belfort as a -140 favorite, with Rockhold a +100 underdog, so it wasn’t the oddsmakers who have shifted the line in Rockhold’s favor. It seems as though the public doesn’t have a lot of respect for Belfort.

Of Belfort’s last eight fights, he was the favorite to win four times. Of those eight bouts, Belfort won six of them and the only two losses were against the No. 1 and No. 3 pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Anderson Silva and Jon Jones. A closer look at the numbers reveals just how undervalued Belfort has historically been.

In Belfort’s fight against Michael Bisping, a fight which Vitor won via head kick KO, he closed at only -121, which was an absolute steal. Against Anthony Johnson, who missed weight by 12 pounds, Belfort closed at -125. Again, a steal.

Against Yoshihiro Akiyama he closed at -320, but Belfort won the fight via first-round KO and probably should have been priced closer to 4-1 or even 5-1. Against Rich Franklin, Belfort closed at +125 and won by first-round KO, which was ridiculous value. Against Matt Lindland of all people, Belfort closed at +145 and won by first-round KO. Again, ridiculous value on the MMA veteran.

Finally, against Terry Martin, Belfort closed at -280 and won by second-round KO. Considering Martin had no real path to victory for that fight, it’s hard to believe Belfort wasn’t at least -400.

Those are his six wins in his last eight fights and he was a favorite in four of those bouts. Like I mentioned earlier, Belfort was an underdog to Silva and Jones and lost both fights. But, keep in mind, he was a big underdog in each and nearly submitted Jones with an armbar in the first round of their UFC 152 encounter despite moving up a weight class and taking the fight on very short notice.

Belfort’s MMA record of 22-10 is nothing to write home about. But consider that all 10 of his career losses have come to some of the sport’s all-time greatest fighters: Silva, Jones, Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture (two times), Dan Henderson, Alistair Overeem (two times), Tito Ortiz, and Kazushi Sakuraba. And then consider that half of those losses came by decision.

It’s hard to believe Belfort is the underdog to Rockhold this weekend. Belfort will have the hometown advantage, he will have the power advantage, and he’s allowed to use TRT (Testosterone Replacement Therapy), which seems to have really given his game a boost. Rockhold will have the advantage in leg kicks, height, cardio, and youth, but do those advantages really warrant him being a favorite over Belfort? I don’t think so.

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/18/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 847-399 (.680)
ATS: 665-612 (.521)
ATS Vary Units: 1659-1563 (.515)
Over/Under: 654-623 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 901-839 (.518)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #6
INDIANA 93, New York 89

Knicks at Pacers: What bettors need to know

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-5, 177.5)

Pacers lead best-of-seven series 3-2.

For all the love that Paul George has gotten during the postseason, it is becoming apparent that George Hill might actually be the most important player for the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers hope to have their point guard back when they host the New York Knicks in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Saturday. Hill sat out Game 5 with a concussion and the Indiana offense noticeably suffered without its director.

Hill spent Game 5 in a darkened training room after taking an elbow from Knicks center Tyson Chandler in the previous game. He will need to pass the NBA’s concussion protocol in order to return to the lineup, and that could take some time. Meanwhile New York will try to keep the magic it found at home going in Indiana, where the Pacers have yet to lose in the postseason. The Knicks have been in a shooting slump during the entire series but came through on the defensive end by limiting Indiana to 36.2 percent shooting and holding their own on the boards.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Carmelo Anthony failed to record a field goal in the fourth quarter during Game 3 or 4 at Indiana but came through late in Game 5 with four straight points that helped put the game away. The star forward went 10-for-28 from the field in Game 5 and is shooting 41.3 percent in the series. “We wasn’t ready to go home yet,” Anthony said. “We wanted to protect our homecourt. We let one slip away here on our homecourt (in Game 1) that put us in the position we’re in right now. But we’re just taking it one day at a time. We have faith, we believe, and we feel confident about this one.” Anthony got some much-needed scoring help from the bench, where both Chris Copeland and J.R. Smith scored 13 points. Smith struggled again to 4-for-11 from the field but Copeland hit a trio of 3-pointers in 19 minutes - his most playing time of the series.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana is 7-0 in the postseason when Hill scores 14 or more points and 0-4 when he scores fewer. The 27-year-old guard reportedly suffered the concussion in the first half of Game 4 but still went on to score 14 points in the third quarter of that game en route to a game-high 26. But symptoms began to crop up the next day, and the Pacers and the NBA won’t take any chances. “He’s gotta pass the NBA protocol concussion test,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. D.J. Augustin started in Hill’s place in Game 5 and scored 12 points but did not have an assist in 39 minutes. George absorbed more of the ball handling responsibilities, in addition to being counted on for scoring production and taking the main defensive assignment on Anthony. “We gotta approach Game 6 as a desperation game,” George said. The All-Star forward scored a team-high 23 points in Game 5 but went 10-for-36 in Games 3 and 4 in Indiana.

TRENDS:

* Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
* Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 11-2 in Pacers’ last 13 games following a loss.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Pop star Rihanna suggested on Instagram that Smith has struggled because he’s hung over from partying. “I don’t follow that,” Knicks coach Mike Woodson told reporters. “It has no bearing on this game tonight.”

2. Indiana went 19-for-33 from the free throw line in Game 5.

3. New York G Jason Kidd was limited to five minutes in Game 5 and went 0-for-1 from the field. He is 0-for-17 in the last nine games.

Kings at Sharks: What bettors need to know

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks (-123, 4.5)

Los Angeles leads series 2-0.

Entering their Western Conference second-round series against their Pacific Division rivals, the sixth-seeded San Jose Sharks were one of the most dangerous teams on the power play this postseason. Heading into Game 3 at HP Pavilion on Saturday, the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Kings are the ones clicking with the man advantage. San Jose finds itself in a must-win situation thanks to Los Angeles' power play, which converted three times on six opportunities - including twice in a 22-second span late in the third period - en route to a 4-3 home triumph on Thursday that gave the reigning Stanley Cup champions a 2-0 series lead.

The Sharks were 7-for-24 on the power play during their four-game sweep of the Northwest Division champion Vancouver Canucks in the first round. They have been unable to cash in against the Kings, going 0-for-7 over the first two games. Defenseman Drew Doughty gave Los Angeles a 2-0 lead at 4:10 of the second period with a man-advantage tally and captain Dustin Brown forged a 3-3 tie during a 5-on-3 with 1:43 remaining in the third. Trevor Lewis completed the improbable comeback shortly after the ensuing faceoff with San Jose still down a skater.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, NBCSN, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE KINGS: Brown believes having a large chunk of players from last season's championship team on the roster already has paid dividends this postseason. "Experience is one thing. It's another thing to have all that experience together as a group of guys because that goes a long way when you get yourself into a hole," Brown told the Los Angeles Times after Game 2. "We didn't play a great game, but we found a way to win." The Kings also were in a hole when they lost the first two games of their first-round series against the St. Louis Blues. All that experienced group of players has done is win six consecutive contests since. Jarret Stoll did not play on Thursday after receiving a hit to the head from Raffi Torres in the series opener. While not a marquee name, Stoll has been a key part to Los Angeles' success. "He may not be a top-two-line guy for us, but he's got a lot of fingerprints all over the game every time we have one," defenseman Rob Scuderi told the Times. The Kings have won 12 consecutive home games.

ABOUT THE SHARKS: Game 1 may have been the last contest played by Raffi Torres in a San Jose uniform. An unrestricted free agent after the season, the left wing was suspended for the remainder of the series as a result of his head shot on Stoll. Torres has been banned several times during his career, most notably last postseason when he received a 25-game suspension - which later was reduced to 21 games - for a hit to the head of Chicago's Marian Hossa. Captain Joe Thornton didn't think Torres' hit on Stoll was dirty at all. "We were kind of shocked to hear that he has to fly to New York for the hearing," Thornton told the San Jose Mercury News on Thursday. "We didn't see anything wrong on the play." Coach Todd McLellan believes his was the better team in Game 2, save for the 22-second span late in the third period. "When you get three (goals), you'd better beat this team," McLellan said. "We've got to get back to San Jose and feel good about what we did for 59 minutes. ... There's a lot of good to take out of that game. I liked a lot. I disliked the fact that we lost."

TRENDS:

* Home team is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.
* Over is 5-1-3 in the last nine meetings.
* Kings are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Kings are 10-25 in the last 35 meetings in San Jose.

OVERTIME:

1. Kings C Anze Kopitar left Game 2 in the opening minute of the third period after being hit in the left side of his face with a puck but returned midway through the session.

2. With Torres suspended, LW Tim Kennedy was inserted into San Jose's lineup. As a result, C Scott Gomez was moved up to the third line and took advantage of the promotion by recording two assists.

3. Sharks C Patrick Marleau has scored a goal in five of his team's six playoff games.

Three streaking pitchers worth a look on the road Saturday

Saturday's MLB schedule features a few starters that maybe didn't get off to the best starts in the 2013 season, but might just be turning things around lately. Here is a rundown of some guys on the hill Saturday that have had some recent success on the road.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (1-2, 4.69 ERA)

The Jays righty seems to be coming around after a slow start to the season. Morrow has pitched very well in his last three outings with the Jays, victorious in all three. He won his last road start versus the Baltimore Orioles by a score of 6-5. Morrow went 6 1/3 innings giving up three earned runs along the way.

The righty takes the hill against the New York Yankees Saturday. Morrow was roughed up by the Yankes earlier in the year giving up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Brandon McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks (0-3, 5.62 ERA)

McCarthy is still winless on the season but the Diamondbacks have won the last two games he has started away from home. McCarthy lasted 6 1/3 innings giving up just three earned runs in his last road start versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. He is also coming off his best pitching performance of the season, going eight strong innings with no earned runs versus the Philadlphia Phillies.

McCarthy takes the hill versus the lowly Miami Marlins Saturday.

Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers (3-2, 5.32 ERA)

The Brew Crew have won three of Estrada's last four starts away from Miller Park and he's given them some quality performances in those games. His last start, on the road in Pittsburgh, was his best of the season. He went seven innings giving up one earned run en route to the 5-1 victory.

Milwaukee is on the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday. Estrada went six innings in his last start at Busch Stadium. The Brewers won 4-3 but he did not factor in the decision.

NASCAR betting: Sprint All-Star Race preview

The field for this year's 29th NASCAR Sprint Cup All-Star Race will feature 22 drivers and the 90-lap race will take place at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Saturday night.

The race will consist of four 20-lap segments followed by a mandatory pit stop and 10-lap sprint to the finish for a lucrative $1 million prize.

Favorite: Jimmie Johnson (+500)

Johnson collected the $1 million prize for taking the checkered flag at the All-Star event last season. In the past eight All-Star Races at Charlotte, he ranks third out of 37 drivers with an average place of 6.9.

Live dog: Greg Biffle (+1,500)

Biffle has finished outside the top 10 for four consecutive races, but seems to excel in non-points races. In the past eight NASCAR Sprint Showdown races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Biffle ranks first out of 39 drivers with an average place of 1.7.

Long shot: Mark Martin (+4,000)

Mark Martin claimed his first All Star race victory in 1998 and drove to another in 2005. The Michael Waltrip Racing driver is preparing for his 24th All-Star Race -the most of any driver. In 23 All-Star events, Martin has six top-five finishes to go along with his two victories.

Key stat: Seven times from seven different drivers has the winner of the all-star event gone on to win the 600-mile race at Charlotte the following weekend.

Notable quotable:

"It's like, 'Hey, can you make it from the balcony into the pool without hitting the pool deck?' There's one way to figure it out. You can do all the calculating you want, but you've just got to try it." – Greg Biffle on NASCAR’s decision to allow drivers to speed on pit row during practice and qualifying for the All-Star event.

Odds to win Sprint All-Star Race courtesy of JustBet:

Kyle Busch 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 5-1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Denny Hamlin 15/2
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Tony Stewart 25/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Mark Martin 40/1
Field 20/1

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mets Friday.

Saturday it’s Govenor Charlie in the Preakness ($25 win and place). The deficit is 368 sirignanos.

Hockey Crusher
San Jose Sharks -126 over LA Kings
(System Record: 65-3, won last 5 games and a push)
Overall Record: 65-44-4

Basketball Crusher
Indiana Pacers -5 over NY Knicks
(System Record: 104-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 104-79-4

Baseball Crusher
Chicago White Sox + Los Angeles Angels OVER 9
(System Record: 19-4, lost last 5 games and a push)
Overall Record: 19-29-1

Soccer Crusher
Krasnodar + Spartak Moscow UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Russia
(System Record: 398-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 398-347-49

I guess you're still sleeping overseas! Let's be the 1st to post one of those pro cappers for today

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Feldman is 3-0, 1.57 in his last four starts.
-- Kendrick is 4-0, 1.84 in his last seven starts. Arroyo has a 2.89 RA in his last three starts.
-- McCarthy has a 1.88 RA in his last two starts, but is winless in eight starts so far this season.
-- Lynn is 4-1, 1.80 in his last five starts.
-- Colorado won both Chatwood starts (1-0, 3.75), scoring 18 runs.
-- Zimmerman is 4-0, 0.85 in his last four starts. Stults is 1-1, 2.95 in his last three starts.

-- Burnett is 3-2, 2.54 in his last six starts.

-- McAllister is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts.
-- Hernandez is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Santiago is 1-1, 3.33 in three starts this season.
-- Sanchez is 2-2, 2.67 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Mets are 0-7 when Hefner starts (0-4, 4.28).
-- Koehler lost his first '13 start, allowing two runs in five IP.
-- Medlen is 0-4, 5.28 in his last five starts. Capuano is 1-2, 8.76 in his three starts this season.
-- Estrada is 0-1, 10.61 in two starts vs St Louis this year.
-- Lincecum is 1-1, 5.32 in four road starts this year.

-- Bedard is 0-3, 10.47 in his last five starts.

-- Saunders is 0-4, 12.54 in four road starts (3-0, 1.26 at home).
-- Morrow is 1-1, 5.92 in his last four starts. Phelps is 0-1, 3.44 in three starts this season.
-- Jurrjens is making first '13 start; he was
-- Angels are 0-8 when Blanton starts (0-7, 6.65).
-- Diamond is 0-3, 7.16 in three home starts (3-0, 1.80 on road). Dempster is 2-3, 4.94 in his last five starts.
-- Grimm is 0-3, 7.02 in his last three starts.
-- Milone is 0-5, 4.73 in his last five starts. Santana is 0-1, 5.11 in his last couple starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Hefner 4-7; Feldman 2-7
-- Arroyo 1-8; Kendrick 4-8
-- McCarthy 4-8; Koehler 0-1
-- Capuano 1-3; Medlen 1-8
-- Estrada 1-8; Lynn 2-8
-- Lincecum 3-8; Chatwood 1-2
-- Zimmerman 1-8; Stults 1-8

-- Bedard 3-6; Burnett 3-9

-- Saunders 1-8; McAllister 2-7
-- Morrow 3-7; Phelps 1-3
-- Hernandez 1-7; Jurrjens 0-0
-- Santiago 0-3; Blanton 5-8
-- Dempster 3-8; Diamond 2-6
-- Sanchez 1-8; Grimm 3-6
-- Santana 4-8; Milone 4-8

Totals
-- Six of Cubs' last eight games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Cincinnati games went over total; six of last eight Philly games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Arizona games.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Atlanta games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Milwaukee games.
-- Last six Colorado games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Washington games went over.

-- Under is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh's last six games.

-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Cleveland games.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Bronx games; eight of last 11 Blue Jay games went over the total.
-- Over is 17-2 in last nineteen Tampa Bay games.
-- Six of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Boston road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Angel home games went over total.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won four of their last six games.
-- Reds won six of their last seven games. Phillies won four of five.
-- Diamondbacks won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Giants won 11 of their last 17 games.
-- Washington won seven of its last ten road games.

-- Pirates won seven of their last eight games.

-- Cleveland won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven games. Toronto won four of its last five.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Boston won its last three games, allowing seven runs.
-- White Sox won five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games, but won last two.
-- Marlins lost last six games, outscored 36-11.
-- Braves lost five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Rockies lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Padres lost five of their last seven games.

-- Astros lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Mariners are 7-13 in their last 20 road games.
-- Baltimore lost four of its last five games.
-- Detroit is 5-7 in its last dozen road games.
-- Twins are 4-8 in their last twelve home games.
-- Oakland/Royals are both 3-8 in their last eleven games.
-- Angels lost five of their last six games.

Umpires
-- NY-Chi-- Underdogs won three of last four Gonzalez games.
-- Cin-Phil-- Last five Barry games went over the total.
-- Az-Mia-- Under is 22-6-1 in last 29 Culbreth games.
-- LA-Atl-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Layne games.
-- Mil-StL-- Six of last seven Dimuro games went over total.
-- SF-Col-- Home team won last four McClelland games.
-- Wsh-SD-- Visiting team won six of last seven Nelson games.

-- Hst-Pitt-- Over is 13-5-1 in last nineteen Bucknor games.

-- Sea-Cle-- Six of last eight Winters games went over the total.
-- Tor-NY-- Home team won 12 of last 16 Drake games.
-- TB-Balt-- Last three Davis games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-LA-- Underdogs are 11-8 in last nineteen Hoye games; home teams are 6-1 in his last seven games behind the dish.
-- Bos-Min-- Five of last six Schrieber games stayed under total.
-- Det-Tex-- 12 of last 16 Muchlinski games went over the total.
-- KC-A's-- Five of last seven Joyce games stayed under total.

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/18/13 Predictions

Season: 308-191 (.617)

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #3
Los Angeles vs. SAN JOSE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Game #2
CHICAGO 3, Detroit 2

Cappers Access

Knicks +5.5
Blue Jays +135
Rangers +135

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