| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 39 | 34 | 0.00 | +19.93 |
| Season to Date | 62 | 57 | 0.00 | +26.52 |
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Kansas City -113 over OAKLAND
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Royals are 20-17 and just a game behind the Tigers but unlike previous years when a decent start for the Royals meant little, this season is different. The Royals are a legit contender. Amazingly, they’ve had this good start while most of their top young hitters have struggled. Third baseman Mike Moustakas is hitting just .194. Both first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez have hit just one jack each. Designated hitter Billy Butler, a career .299 hitter, is batting an uncharacteristic .262. Once that quartet gets going, and they’ve already started to pick it up, the Royals will own the majors most potent offense, if they don’t already. The Royals are third in the league in team batting average behind San Fran and Detroit and will face a struggling Jarrod Parker here. Parker has struggled to repeat the rookie success he had last year and that’s no surprise, as the book on him is out. He comes into this start with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP after walking 22 batters and surrendering 53 hits in 40.2 innings of work. Parker is not THIS bad, but he’s not very good either. With Brett Anderson once again on the DL, the A's can't afford to send Parker down to work out the kinks and we get the benefit of that by fading this righty, who is not very confident right now.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Then there’s James Shields. Shields’ has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball with consistently strong skills every year since 2010. This year has been no different as Shields enters this matchup with a 53 K’s and 14 walks in 58 frames, a 2.48 ERA a 3.22 xERA, and a 0.97 WHIP. He's thrown seven pure quality starts in eight starts this season so we can expect solid numbers at O.co Coliseum (-31% LHB HR, -12% RHB HR). A pitching mismatch, a hitting mismatch and a cheap price has confidently stepping in. Play: Kansas City -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2). [/FONT][/FONT]
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San Francisco -110 over COLORADO
[FONT=arial !important]J[FONT=arial !important]orge De La Rosa is 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA. At home, De La Rosa is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00 after shutting out both the Yankees and Diamondbacks in a combined 12 innings at Coors Field. Very impressive indeed, on the surface that is, and now we get one of the best “sell high” opportunities of the young season. Surface stats, like W/L records can be very misleading and De La Rosa is at or near the top of that misleading category. De La Rosa has just 28 K’s in 45 frames. Pay more attention to De La Rosa’s 4.21 xERA because the gap between his actual ERA and xERA is guaranteed to narrow. De La Rosa has an ugly 25% line-drive rate, which is pure proof that those frozen ropes are being hit right at people. This is an average pitcher with unsustainable numbers and the best thing about fading him here is that he’s coming off an absolute gem in St. Louis in which he didn’t allow a hit until the seventh inning. In that start, of the 16 batted balls in play only four were hit on the ground. An average pitcher coming off a gem is usually a good fade. That certainly applies here.[FONT=arial !important]
Madison Bumgarner is another pitcher with a profile that has developed its own rhythm and it's full of high notes. An outstanding strikeout rate (54 K’s in 54 IP), rock solid control (13 BB in 54 IP) and pitching to xERA (3.06) make Bumgarner one of the league’s finest. Over his last three starts, Bumgarner has seen is groundball rate jump from 44% to 57%, suggesting he’s beginning to master that skill as well. He's a young virtuoso but is wrongly priced here because the market sees De La Rosa’s numbers. Wager accordingly. Play: San Fran -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Cincinnati +114 over PHILADELPHIA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Reds come into this series as one of the hottest teams in the majors with six wins in a row and 10 wins in their past 12 games. After a slow start, Cinci is now 25-16 and just 1½-games back of the Cardinals. The Phillies are three games under .500 and will likely play about .500 ball the entire year. Cliff Lee needs no introductions. At 34, Lee continues to hum along as one of baseball's most dependable starters. He now has five straight seasons or a sub 3.20 ERA and 200 IP. He also has registered 200-plus Ks each of the past two years. However, all those miles eventually take a toll and Lee’s strikeout rate has seen an age-related decline this season. He has 43 K’s in 57 innings and his groundball rate is also trending the wrong way at just 38%. At Citizen’s Bank Park, Lee is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA and the Reds continue to hit lefties well.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Tony Cingrani finally hit a speed bump in his rookie season lasting only four innings (85 pitches) in a disaster outing against Milwaukee in his last start. Cingrani's skills to date though have been electric with 37 K’s and just seven walks issued in 28 frames. Cingrani comes in with a 2.89 ERA, a 2.74 xERA and an elite 0.96 WHIP. Expect a rebound outing tonight against a Phillies team hitting only .231 against lefties this year. Cingrani’s fastball is anywhere between 88 and 95 mph and he locates it really well to both sides of the plate. He is an expert at finishing hitters high in the strike zone and he gives the Reds a great chance of winning every time he takes the mound. This one should be no different. Play: Cincinnati (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]
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Chicago +106 over L.A. ANGELS
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Angels have dropped two in a row and they’re now an incredible 11 games under .500 and 12 games back of Texas. The Angels are batting a combined .236 and things certainly don’t get easier here against Chris Sale. Sale has 49 K’s and just 12 walks issued in 56 frames, meaning the Halos are going to have to string together some hits to score some runs, something they are usually not capable of doing. Sale has some of the nastiest stuff in the big leagues. His horizontal slider movement is the highest of any LHP starter with at least 40 IP. Only Matt Moore has gotten more horizontal movement on his changeup than Sale among lefties and only Derek Holland has gotten more horizontal movement on their four-seam fastball than Sale among lefties. His line drive rate is just 15%, he has an elite 0.94 WHIP to go along with an impressive 2.94 ERA. All that with a low strand rate of 74%. If Sale he can maintain his excellent control and stay healthy, he will remain one of the best pitchers in the game. As a pooch here, Sale and the South Side offer up tremendous value.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
The Angels are not going to turn this thing around anytime soon. They are managed by a guy who still thinks he can play small ball with a squad that is not built to do that. Ever since he won the World Series with the Angels back in 2002, Mike Scioscia has not changed his style one bit. He over-manages and it’s getting tiresome. C. J. Wilson's wildness returns. Wilson admitted to pitching through elbow pain during the final few months of 2012 and his backers suffered as a result (5.24 ERA in 2H). Reportedly fully recovered from offseason surgery, Wilson's concerns must now shift to another lingering issue. Wilson is walking a thin line with his control. Wilson has had shaky control throughout his career, even as a reliever and 2011 now looks like an outlier. Most pitchers with this poor control are left on the waiver wire. Wilson has issued 28 walks in 47 frames, which has contributed to his unsightly 1.54 WHIP. Current White Sox batters have a career .264 BA against him and when you throw in the walks, they have a .744 OPS against him. Additionally, the South Side is beginning to heat up with three wins in a row and four wins in five games, not to mention the 18 runs they’ve scored in the past three games. With Chris Sale on the hill and being offered a tag, the White Sox are wrongly being billed as the pooch here. Play: Chicago +106 (Risking 2 units).
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