[h=1]Best Preakness Stakes value bets[/h][h=3]Itsmyluckyday was awful at the Derby, but the conditions have changed[/h]
By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider
Nearly two weeks ago, Orb lived up to his hype and status as the favorite with an impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby. It was the kind of performance that left little doubt as to who would be the fave in Saturday's Preakness Stakes.
Orb was declared the even-money favorite, which should be much lower by the time the gates open at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET. What potentially will be dragging down Orb's price to one of the lowest we have seen in a number of years is the fact that the second- and third-place horses from the Kentucky Derby elected to bypass the middle jewel of the Triple Crown and wait for the Belmont.
Historically, when you bet the Preakness, it's harder to find the same value you would at the Derby or Belmont. The average winning odds since 2000 have been 3.9-to-1, with seven favorites winning in that time span. That said, if you're looking for value, there will be some good options in the Preakness because Orb will be such a prohibitive choice.
Here is a look at some of the best betting values on the board:
<OFFER>
Departing (No. 4, 6-1 Morning Line)
This horse looked to be the obvious second choice in the morning line heading into the race but surprisingly the oddsmaker decided to make him the third choice.
When you look closely at his record, it's easy to see why this horse could be a good value play. He has only lost once in his career and seems to be getting better with each and every start. Trainer Al Stall knew last month that this horse would be a long shot to make the Kentucky Derby, so he entered him into the Illinois Derby with the intention of running him in the Preakness. Now he's well-rested with four weeks off since that race and has been working and training very well at Churchill Downs since April.
It's hard to tell what his final odds might be, but the fact that he started at 6-1 may give us some insight into the horse being a potentially good value in the Preakness.
Itsmyluckyday (No. 9, 10-1 Morning Line)
He was expected to run much better than the 15th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, but it could simply be chalked up to the fact that he did not care for the sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Now he should get a fast track and another shot at beating Derby winner Orb.
His running style is suited perfectly for the Preakness, as he will be sitting off what should be a fast early pace. He also gets the benefit of a new jockey in John Velazquez, who became available after the previously unbeaten Verrazano cut himself in the Run for the Roses. In addition, the Kentucky Derby was by far his worst effort of the year. In his previous three starts he won twice, with the second-place finish coming to Orb.
The only concern about Itsmyluckyday is that he might have peaked in Florida this winter. But if you liked him going into the Kentucky Derby he's worth another shot in the Preakness, especially at this price.
Goldencents (No. 2, 8-1 Morning Line)
This is another horse a lot of people expected to run much better in the Kentucky Derby. Like Itsmyluckday, he could have simply not liked the sloppy conditions. In fact, after the Derby, Doug O'Neill was already looking forward to running his horse back in the Preakness because he believed the Derby was simply a race to throw out given the track conditions.
Another thing that might have hurt his chances in the Derby is the fact that he was not near the lead. Combine that with his dislike of the track, and it would explain his subpar performance.
In the Preakness he should have no excuses. The track should be fast, he has an inside post position, and he should be able to get or stay near the lead. If he is able to do that and avoid a speed duel with Govenor Charlie he could repeat his performance in the Santa Anita derby. He could be a good value play for Saturday.
Will Take Charge (No. 7, 12-1 Morning Line)
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is certainly no stranger to the Preakness, as he has won the race four times. But at age 77, the fact that he has three contenders in the middle jewel is remarkable.
His best shot and a great value comes from this well-bred son of Unbridled Song. Will Take Charge has raced four times this year and won twice. The two losses came on sloppy racetracks, including an eighth-place finish in the Derby. When he does win, it usually is an upset. For example, when he captured the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March, he was 28-1 and beat stablemate and fellow Preakness runner Oxbow.
Will Take Charge also gets a big rider change as Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith climbs aboard for the first time. Smith will probably be best remembered for riding Zenyatta throughout her remarkable career.
Best Bet: Orb
I know there is no value in betting Orb but ... well, it's his race to lose. Even though he drew the No. 1 starting post position, which usually puts horses who don't have early speed at a disadvantage, he should be able overcome that and take the second leg of the Triple Crown. He was clearly the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, and for trainer Shug McGaughey, who normally does not brag about his horses, to boast about his chances in the Preakness is telling. There's no reason to think he can't do it again.
Best Value Bet: Itsmyluckday
He gave Orb a great battle in the Florida Derby, and his poor Derby effort is completely excusable. A lot of people likely will likely look to another horse after his subpar effort at Churchill Downs, but if he is able to run more in line with his winter races in Florida, there's no reason to think he can't run a huge race.
By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider
Nearly two weeks ago, Orb lived up to his hype and status as the favorite with an impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby. It was the kind of performance that left little doubt as to who would be the fave in Saturday's Preakness Stakes.
Orb was declared the even-money favorite, which should be much lower by the time the gates open at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET. What potentially will be dragging down Orb's price to one of the lowest we have seen in a number of years is the fact that the second- and third-place horses from the Kentucky Derby elected to bypass the middle jewel of the Triple Crown and wait for the Belmont.
Historically, when you bet the Preakness, it's harder to find the same value you would at the Derby or Belmont. The average winning odds since 2000 have been 3.9-to-1, with seven favorites winning in that time span. That said, if you're looking for value, there will be some good options in the Preakness because Orb will be such a prohibitive choice.
Here is a look at some of the best betting values on the board:
<OFFER>
Departing (No. 4, 6-1 Morning Line)
This horse looked to be the obvious second choice in the morning line heading into the race but surprisingly the oddsmaker decided to make him the third choice.
When you look closely at his record, it's easy to see why this horse could be a good value play. He has only lost once in his career and seems to be getting better with each and every start. Trainer Al Stall knew last month that this horse would be a long shot to make the Kentucky Derby, so he entered him into the Illinois Derby with the intention of running him in the Preakness. Now he's well-rested with four weeks off since that race and has been working and training very well at Churchill Downs since April.
It's hard to tell what his final odds might be, but the fact that he started at 6-1 may give us some insight into the horse being a potentially good value in the Preakness.
Itsmyluckyday (No. 9, 10-1 Morning Line)
He was expected to run much better than the 15th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, but it could simply be chalked up to the fact that he did not care for the sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Now he should get a fast track and another shot at beating Derby winner Orb.
His running style is suited perfectly for the Preakness, as he will be sitting off what should be a fast early pace. He also gets the benefit of a new jockey in John Velazquez, who became available after the previously unbeaten Verrazano cut himself in the Run for the Roses. In addition, the Kentucky Derby was by far his worst effort of the year. In his previous three starts he won twice, with the second-place finish coming to Orb.
The only concern about Itsmyluckyday is that he might have peaked in Florida this winter. But if you liked him going into the Kentucky Derby he's worth another shot in the Preakness, especially at this price.
Goldencents (No. 2, 8-1 Morning Line)
This is another horse a lot of people expected to run much better in the Kentucky Derby. Like Itsmyluckday, he could have simply not liked the sloppy conditions. In fact, after the Derby, Doug O'Neill was already looking forward to running his horse back in the Preakness because he believed the Derby was simply a race to throw out given the track conditions.
Another thing that might have hurt his chances in the Derby is the fact that he was not near the lead. Combine that with his dislike of the track, and it would explain his subpar performance.
In the Preakness he should have no excuses. The track should be fast, he has an inside post position, and he should be able to get or stay near the lead. If he is able to do that and avoid a speed duel with Govenor Charlie he could repeat his performance in the Santa Anita derby. He could be a good value play for Saturday.
Will Take Charge (No. 7, 12-1 Morning Line)
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is certainly no stranger to the Preakness, as he has won the race four times. But at age 77, the fact that he has three contenders in the middle jewel is remarkable.
His best shot and a great value comes from this well-bred son of Unbridled Song. Will Take Charge has raced four times this year and won twice. The two losses came on sloppy racetracks, including an eighth-place finish in the Derby. When he does win, it usually is an upset. For example, when he captured the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March, he was 28-1 and beat stablemate and fellow Preakness runner Oxbow.
Will Take Charge also gets a big rider change as Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith climbs aboard for the first time. Smith will probably be best remembered for riding Zenyatta throughout her remarkable career.
Best Bet: Orb
I know there is no value in betting Orb but ... well, it's his race to lose. Even though he drew the No. 1 starting post position, which usually puts horses who don't have early speed at a disadvantage, he should be able overcome that and take the second leg of the Triple Crown. He was clearly the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, and for trainer Shug McGaughey, who normally does not brag about his horses, to boast about his chances in the Preakness is telling. There's no reason to think he can't do it again.
Best Value Bet: Itsmyluckday
He gave Orb a great battle in the Florida Derby, and his poor Derby effort is completely excusable. A lot of people likely will likely look to another horse after his subpar effort at Churchill Downs, but if he is able to run more in line with his winter races in Florida, there's no reason to think he can't run a huge race.
