Service Plays Monday 5/20/13

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NBA futures odds: Heat are the team to beat

The Indiana Pacers took care of business Saturday night and eliminated the New York Knicks in six games, leaving four NBA teams vying for the Larry O'Brien NBA Championship Trophy.

Here are the latest NBA futures odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook:

ODDS TO WIN 2012-2013 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP

HEAT 1-4
SPURS 6
PACERS 15
GRIZZLIES 8

NBA Eastern Conference finals preview: Heat vs. Pacers

The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers duke it out in the Eastern Conference championship with a ticket to the NBA Finals on the line.

Here’s a look at how these teams stack up and their odds to win the series heading into Game 1 Wednesday:

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers

Season series: Pacers 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 over/under
Series prices: Heat -700, Pacers +500

Why bet the Heat: Miami has victories in 45 of its last 48 games and an 8-1 record this postseason, with seven of those wins by double figures. Dwyane Wade will have had a week off to rest his ailing knee before Game 1 Wednesday, and Chris Bosh is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Bosh had nearly three times as many blocks as Chicago big man Joakim Noah (11 to 4) in the last round and held his own in the rebounding department against the much bigger Noah. Bosh appears poised to handle the Pacers’ intimidating frontcourt of Roy Hibbert and David West and no Heat player was betting in the clutch than CB4 this season. Bosh shot 77 percent from the field (24 for 31) in the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer this season.

Why bet the Pacers: The Pacers have a distinct size advantage over the Heat. Indiana has four players that are six-foot-nine or taller, while Miami has only two. The Pacers took two of three by double digits from the Heat during the regular season, outrebounding Miami by 11 boards per game over the three-game stretch. Indiana has been very impressive when it comes to defending the 3-point line. Opposing teams shot just 32.7 percent against the Pacers from beyond the arc this season – tops in the Association. The Pacers were one of two teams (Knicks were the other) to win their season series against Miami this year.

Indians improve to 7-1 against Cy Young pitchers

The Cleveland Indians have been an awesome bet against Cy Young Award winning pitchers.

The Indians are now 7-1 (4-4 over/under) against former Cy Young winners after defeating Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners 6-0 on Sunday.

Any $100 bettor would be up $888 if they had wagered on Cleveland in each of these games.

Opposing Cy Young pitchers are a combined 1-7 with a lofty 8.20 ERA against the Tribe.

Cleveland suffered its only loss to a former Cy Young quality pitcher back on April 14 to Jake Peavy and the Chicago White Sox.

The Indians will get their next crack at a top pitcher on Wednesday when the Tigers' Justin Verlander is projected to take the hill at Progressive Field.

Yankees at Orioles: What bettors need to know

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+130, 8.5)

The Baltimore Orioles face their first real adversity this season, losing the last five games at home including two in the ninth inning. The Orioles look to change their fortunes when they host the first-place New York Yankees on Monday to start a three-game series. Baltimore has dropped into a tie for third with Tampa Bay, four games behind the Yankees in the American League East. The Orioles went 1-2 last month at New York, which won 9 of 12 before being rained out Sunday.

Manny Machado and Adam Jones are among the league leaders in hits and Chris Davis is near the top in homers (12) and RBIs (40). But the Orioles’ starting pitchers have lasted more than six innings once in the last 10 games. Yankees slugger Robinson Cano is coming off a two-homer game Saturday and is batting .338 with 24 blasts in his career against Baltimore.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, ESPN, YES (New York), MASN (Baltimore)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH CC Sabathia (4-3, 3.19 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Freddy Garcia (0-2, 5.51)

Sabathia was slated to pitch Sunday before the rainout, so he will take the mound against a team he has had a lot of success against. The veteran left-hander is 17-4 in 26 career starts against Baltimore with a 3.03 ERA. Sabathia has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of nine games in 2013, but has only one victory in his last five turns. He has surrendered eight homers in 59 1/3 innings.

Garcia has allowed four homers in 16 1/3 innings during his first three starts for the Orioles. The veteran right-hander, who owns a 152-103 career record, gave up two runs over 6 2/3 innings during his first outing before being touched up for eight in 9 2/3 frames his last two. Garcia is 5-4 in 12 starts with a 4.09 ERA against the Yankees. Travis Hafner is 15-for-33 with four home runs against him.

WALK-OFFS

1. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera is 16-for-16 in save opportunities, his second longest streak to start a season. He converted the first 28 chances in 2008.

2. Jones is 14-for-44 with three homers and 10 RBIs in his career against Sabathia.

3. The Yankees, off to their second best 43-game start in the last 15 years (27-16), are 18-0 when scoring the first run.

Cappers Access

Phillies(RL) -1.5(-113)
Giants -130

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Spurs (-4 1/2) Sunday.

Monday it’s the Mariners. The deficit is 368 sirignanos.

Rounding The Bases: The best bets in the bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in Major League Baseball.

For the week of May 13-19.

Hot team: Boston Red Sox
Last week: 5-1
Season: 27-17
Upcoming schedule: at White Sox, vs. Indians

Skinny: After dropping six of seven, the Red Sox have put together five straight victories to rise back to the top of the AL East standings just behind the Yankees.

Cold team: Baltimore Orioles
Last week: 0-5
Season: 23-20
Upcoming schedule: vs. Yankees, at Blue Jays

Skinny: Orioles pitchers were shelled for 25 runs while being swept in a three-game weekend set by the Tampa Bay Rays.

Over team: Colorado Rockies
Last week: 6-1 over/under
Season: 25-18-1 over/under
Upcoming schedule: vs. Diamondbacks at Giants

Skinny: The Rockies had played over in seven consecutive games before falling short of the 10.5 total in Sunday’s finale of a three-game series with the San Francisco Giants.

Under team: Oakland Athletics
Last week: 1-5 over/under
Season: 29-16 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Rangers, at Astros

Skinny: The Athletics have played under in four consecutive games and seven of their last eight after slugging out of the gates as the league’s best over play.

Braves pitchers stellar at home, poor on the road

The Atlanta Braves have only played 17 of their first 42 games at home and have a ton of contests coming up at Turner Field.

That’s important for bettors to know because Braves pitchers have been dominant at home early and not so impressive away from the friendly confines of Turner Field.

Atlanta pitchers boast a 2.54 ERA at home and are holding opposing hitters to a .215 batting average. Conversely, Braves hurlers have a combined 4.06 ERA away from the Peach State and the opposition is hitting a much better .264 against them.

No pitcher exemplifies this trend better than staff ace Tim Hudson. The veteran righty is 3-0 in four home starts with a 2.84 ERA, but has struggled mightily on the road with a 1-3 record and 7.36 ERA. Hudson is projected to take the hill Tuesday vs. the Minnesota Twins.

Bettors have been cashing in on Atlanta’s 16-9-1 over/under mark away from home, but that number stabilizes to a more modest 8-9 O/U at Turner Field.

The Braves only play five (three in New York and two in Toronto) of their next 16 games away from Turner Field.

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians - UNDER 8 RUNS (-112)
Listed Pitchers: Iwakuma vs Kazmir
(Note: Im risking 2.00 units to win 1.79 units)

Handicapping Kings

Jimmy

baseball

oakland/texas - over 9.5 -115 (8pm)

boston -145 chicago (8pm)

arizona/colorado - under 9.5 +100 (840pm)

nhl

chicago -140 detroit (735pm)

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto was 1-0, 2.60 in three starts before going on DL.
-- Kershaw is 2-0, 0.88 in his last four starts.
-- Arizona is 8-0 when Corbin starts (5-0, 1.32 last seven).
-- Miller is 2-0, 0.44 in his last three starts. Marquis is 4-0, 2.45 in last four.

-- Iwakuma is 4-0, 2.00 in his last four starts. Kazmir is 2-0, 2.25 in two home starts this year.
-- Guthrie is 3-1, 2.20 in his last four starts.
-- Lester is 2-0, 2.05 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Hamels is 0-3, 4.26 in his last three starts. Sanabia is 0-5, 6.43 in his last five starts.
-- Marcum is 0-3, 6.86 in four starts this season.
-- Gallardo is 0-2, 5.06 in his last three starts.
-- Garland is 1-4, 6.12 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong is 0-3, 10.20 in his last six starts. Duke is 49-74, 4.58 in 168 big league starts, mostly with Pirates- he started nine games for Arizona in '11.

-- Correia is 1-2, 5.19 in his last three starts. Teheran has a 5.13 RA in seven starts, but Braves won six of them.

-- Dickey is 1-3, 5.52 in his last five outings. Odorizzi is major prospect for the Rays, acquired in Shields trade; he was 4-0, 3.83 in eight AAA starts.
-- Sabathia is 1-2, 4.31 in his last five starts. FGarcia is 0-2, 5.51 in three starts for the Orioles.
-- Colon is 0-2, 7.06 in his last four starts. Lindblom has been in 101 big league games, but this is his first start; he was 4-0, 2.08 in seven AAA starts this season (5.8 IP/start).
-- Keuchel is 0-0, 5.40 in two starts this season.
-- Axelrod is 1-2, 5.04 in his last four starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Hamels 2-9; Sanabia 4-8 (4 of last 5)
-- Cueto 0-3; Marcum 0-4
-- Kershaw 0-9; Gallardo 2-9
-- Corbin 1-8; Garland 4-8
-- Miller 1-8; Marquis 2-8
-- Duke 0-0; Vogelsong 4-8

-- Correia 2-8; Teheran 4-7 (1 of last 4)

-- Iwakuma 3-9; Kazmir 1-5
-- Odorizzi 0-0; Dickey 3-9;
-- Sabathia 4-9; FGarcia 0-3
-- Colon 2-8; Lindblom 0-0
-- Guthrie 1-8; Keuchel 0-2
-- Lester 1-9; Axelrod 3-8

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Cincinnati games went over total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Milwaukee games.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Arizona games.
-- Four of last five San Diego games went over the total.
-- Eight of Giants' last ten games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Atlanta games.

-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Cleveland games.
-- Over is 18-3 in last twenty-one Tampa Bay games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Bronx games.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Oakland games.
-- Eight of last eleven Houston home games went over total.
-- Seven of last ten Boston road games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Phillies won five of their last seven games.
-- Reds won seven of their last nine games.
-- Colorado won its last three games, scoring 25 runs. Diamondbacks won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last eleven games. San Diego won four of its last six games.

-- Braves won their last four home games, scoring 25 runs.

-- Cleveland won 11 of its last 14 games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Bronx won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Oakland won its last three games, allowing five runs. Rangers won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Boston won its last five games, allowing thirteen runs.

Cold teams
-- Marlins lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Brewers lost nine of their last eleven games. Dodgers lost their last six away games, allowing 32 runs.
-- San Francisco lost five of its last six games. Washington lost six of last nine.

-- Twins lost their last five games, allowing 33 runs.
-- Mariners are 7-15 in their last 22 road games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Baltimore lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Royals lost 11 of their last 14 games. Astros lost 10 of their last 12.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five home games.

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/20/13 Prediction

Season: 308-192 (.616)

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #3
DETROIT 3, Chicago 2

[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Chicago at Detroit[/h] The Blackhawks look to bounce back from their loss in Game 2 and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games in Detroit. Chicago is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-140). Here are all of today's picks.

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -130 over Detroit Red Wings
(System Record: 67-3, won last 7 games and a push)
Overall Record: 67-44-4

Baseball Crusher
San Francisco Giants -123 over Washington
(System Record: 21-4, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 21-29-1

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Arizona at Colorado[/h] The Diamondbacks look to build on their 11-1 record in Patrick Corbin's last 12 starts. Arizona is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1034-769 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 7-2 run Mon: Cincinnati Reds

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Monday

Washington/San Fran over 8

Hondo

YANKEES