Phillies(Hamels) -168 $504 to win $300
The Phillies head to Miami to face Alex Sanabia and the Marlins. Here, we feel that Cole Hamels is structurally underrated. He's struggled a bit so far, and he struggled in his last outing. Hamels has seen his strikeout rates dip and his walk rates tick upward, and he's been a bit lucky on balls in play. But when you dig deeper into his numbers, you see that Hamels stuff is still there. And there's nothing to suggest a tangible decrease in talent.
He is throwing a bit harder this year than last, and he's generating a slightly lower number of swinging strikes as last year (still well above league average and right around his career average). His changeup speed is the same, so he's seeing greater separation between the fastball and change. He's still generating well in excess of 30% swings on pitches outside of the zone. The difference this year is that Hamels is not getting ahead of hitters quite as well, and hitters have made slightly better contact on pitches within the zone. Still, his line drive rates are down over last season, so the numbers suggest that guys still are not squaring Hamels up on pitches within the zone.
Hamels is a pitcher whose fundamentals suggest his numbers will improve over the next couple of months. This is a very good spot for him against a weak Miami offense that is also banged up. The Phillies will face a below-average right-hander in Alex Sanabia, and this should benefit the lefties in that lineup who struggle against same-sided pitchers.
We see good value here, and even though this Philly team is not what it's been in the past, it the number is right in a matchup that the Phillies will win three out of every four times.
Reds(Cueto)/Mets(Marcum) U7.5 -110 $330 to win $300
The Reds head to Citi Field to face a Mets team that has been very offensively challenged lately. Still, the Mets have won three out of four, beating Adam Wainwright in the process before winning a road series at Chicago. Shaun Marcum pitched well against the Cards last time out, and he seems to be finding a good feel for his off-speed stuff. The Reds typically hit hard-throwing right-handers very well, but Shaun Marcum is not a hard-throwing right-hander. He has a chance to get good lefties out with his soft stuff, and that will serve him well in this one.
Johnny Cueto returns from injury to take the ball here, and we will assume the Reds wouldn't put him out there unless he was 100%. Cueto is precisely the sort of guy who will give the Mets a lot of trouble. He throws hard, but he also throws strikes. The Mets do well against pitchers that nibble, as they can force high pitch counts. But Cueto will attack them, and the Mets will make a number of quick outs.
Betting the under in Reds game is always a fun proposition because the Reds bullpen, yesterday not withstanding, is one of the deepest and best in the Major Leagues. Considering the Reds should win this game, we will likely be looking at a full 9 innings worth of at-bats, so it will be important for the Reds 'pen to keep New York in check. At 7.5, this is a good value, as this should be a 4-2 type of game by the time it is finished.
Dodgers(Kershaw) -120 $360 to win $300
In years past, a matchup between Kershaw and Gallardo would be one of the best on any given day. And it probably is today, too, but that owes very little to Gallardo. Yo has struggled in a big way this year, and his velocity is down in a big way. His over the top delivery does not deceive anyone, and he relies upon good, hard stuff to compliment a nice assortment of off-speed pitches. With the velocity not there, he should be vulnerable in his home ballpark against a Dodger team that is showing some life.
LA played well in Atlanta, even if they did not leave with good results. The bullpen blew a couple of late leads after Dodger pitching had mowed down the good Braves lineup. With Kershaw on the mound, the bullpen might not even touch the ball. Clayton has struggled a little bit lately, but that just presents a great chance to get him at an affordable price. We will take that opportunity before a good start makes Clayton more expensive next time out.
San Diego Padres TT U3 -110 $330 to win $300
The Padres will try to take their hacks against Shelby Miller and the Cardinals. Miller was lights-out against the Mets last week, and his stuff is very real. The fastball sits in the mid-90s, and Miller has shown some ability to dial it up into the high 90s. San Diego is not the pitcher's haven that it once was, but it remains a very tough place to score runs for all teams. We like Miller to keep the Padres under 3 here, and we see a worst-case scenario of pushing this bet.
Miller's ERA sits at 1.40, and though he probably hasn't been that good, the peripherals suggest that his success is not a mirage. His strikeout numbers are there, and his command has been good. He is starting off with strike one 66% of the time, and that's been a big part of his success. It will serve him well in this ballpark, as aggressive pitching is often rewarded.
In eight starts this year, Miller has given up 3 runs only once. In half of his starts, he has not allowed a single run. Miller has had some tough starts, too, as he's faced Colorado, gone to Milwaukee, and faced a good Pittsburgh offense twice. He even went on the road to Washington and blanked the Nationals over 6.2 innings. We understand that the bullpen will be counted on to hold this one, but we like our chances. Likewise, if the Padres happen to be ahead late in a low-scoring game, they won't get their full allotment of at-bats as the home team.
Cardinals(Miller) -139 $417 to win $300
The Miller analysis listed above applies here, and he will face Jason Marquis, whose 3.40 ERA is well below what his talent level suggests is possible. The Cardinals have shown the ability to hit, even on the road, and they should knock around the light-tossing Marquis. We believe that while Miller might only be marginally undervalued, Marquis is overvalued. That combination leads us to bet the vastly superior Cardinals in this spot.
Yankees(Sabathia)/Orioles(Garcia) O8.5 -110 $345 to win $300
Any time we can get a game with an even.5 line, we like to think about the over. If this game happens to get to 4-4, we will have a win forced on us by extra innings. Likewise, Sabathia and company are favored, and this means that we will likely get the full allotment of at-bats to try and touch our over. Freddy Garcia looked great in his first start, but it is clear that the stuff is not there for him. He lives on deception, and the Yankee hitters should be very familiar with what he brings onto the mound. Likewise, the lefties in the order have seen Aaron Harang in the last week, and these two have similar stuff.
Sabathia has struggled a bit this year, and Baltimore has good right-handed bats in Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy. That ballpark is good for hitters, and both teams are swinging it quite well at this point. It is always dangerous betting the over with Sabathia on the mound, but he has been very wasteful with his pitches this year, and we anticipate the Yankee bullpen will have to pitch a few innings tonight.
