Brooklyn Sports Stars 2013 Bases: Tuesday

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2013 MLB Picks Tracking

Hello All. We will be posting here at TheRX to track our 2013 MLB numbers. The picks are largely spit out by our model, which is based largely upon advanced metrics. We try out a few new factors over the course of the year, but most our fundamentals are based upon a tried and trusted handicapping mix: starting pitching, ballpark analysis, umpires, etc.

RECORD

Season: 3-3, -$351
This Month: 3-3, -$351

Today’s Picks
***ALL LINES Heritage***

Pittsburgh Pirates(Wandy) -145 $435 to win $300

The Pirates are back at home, and they'll take on Matt Garza's Cubs in his first start off the DL. Wandy Rodriguez has been a good home pitcher for the bulk of his career, and the most prolific Cubs bats hit from the left side. We think he will be able to neutralize Rizzo and DeJesus, and that should lead to success. Likewise, we think Matt Garza will be a little bit rusty coming off of the DL. Not only do we think he will get hit hard by the deep Pirates lineup, but we anticipate him leaving this game a little bit early. The Cubs bullpen has been shaky, and Pittsburgh should have some good success getting to them.

This number should creep higher by game time. The Cubs will have some success later this season, but this is a tough spot. The Pirates are undervalued, especially at home.


New York Mets(Niese) +103 $300 to win $309

Jon Niese looked much better last time out, as he attacked Cardinal hitters on the road. When he's not trying to nibble, Niese can be a very good pitcher. His velocity is where it has been over the last three years, and he looks poised to turn things around a bit. Likewise, he's tough on lefties, and he should be able to neutralize Votto (to the extent that's possible) and Bruce, who looks to be getting much hotter.

The Mets also knocked off Cueto last night, and they should be able to get to Mike Leake for three to four runs. Leake has been pitching a bit over his head to this point in the season, and we believe he is overvalued after an uncharacteristically strong start last time out. The Mets, though much-maligned, are not a bad baseball team at home. And Jon Niese is their second-best arm at this point. We like the Mets in this spot with a + sign beside their number.


Miami Marlins(Fernandez) -104 $312 to win $300
Phillies TT U3.5 -130 $390 to win $300

Here, we have a perfect example of an undervalued pitcher versus an overvalued pitcher. Tyler Cloyd of the Phillies has an ERA in the 2s, but his peripheral number suggest something entirely different. He's not struck people out, he's walked too many, and he's given up a huge number of home runs. This is going to catch up to Cloyd eventually, and he will have a tough time against a good young arm in Fernandez.

Jose Fernandez is among the best pitchers in baseball, striking out one man per inning, limiting his walks, and keeping the ball in the ballpark. He should have success against a Phillies lineup that has struggled with some mediocre arms on the road. We like Fernandez to limit the Phillies, and we think 3.5 is a good number, even with the jumpy juice.


Los Angeles Dodgers(Greinke)/Milwaukee Brewers(Borgos) U9 -125 $375 to win $300

Greinke looked very good last time out, and he should get a bit better in his 2nd time off of the DL. The Dodgers have struggled to score runs, even against poor pitching, and last night, these two teams combined for only 4 runs. Though Greinke is not Kershaw, he's not that far off, either. He may even be a better play against a Milwaukee team that features many good right-handed bats.

In order to stay under the 9, we will rely on Hiram Borgos to at least be decent. Really, though, we will rely on the Dodgers to be what they have been to this point. They have struggled to put up big numbers, and we suspect that this will continue. We suspect that the Dodgers will score no more than 4 runs, and we like Greinke to limit the Brewers to something less than that.



St. Louis Cardinals(Wainwright) -136 $408 to win $300

The Cardinals let one slip away last night with Shelby Miller on the mound, but they won't lose tonight with Wainwright on the hill. Wanwright has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, and his breaking ball has been especially good lately. He pitched decently well against the Mets last time out, and we suspect that he will be dominant in this game. The Cardinals get to face Edinson Volquez, who has been decent this season. He has control and command issues, though, and a patient Cardinals team should be able to draw a number of walks. We like Matt Carpenter to get on base a lot tonight, setting the table for a good Cardinals offense to hit Volquez hard. This is a game where the Cards have an advantage on both sides, and we think that will result in a relatively comfortable win.



Washington Nationals(Strasburg) +106 $300 to win $318
Giants TT U3 -105 $315 to win $300

The Nationals look poised to play better baseball tonight. Stephen Strasburg has struggled at times with his command this year, but he looked much better in his last outing. The velocity is still there, and he is still capable of dominating any lineup. In a good pitcher's park, against a so-so offense in San Francisco, Strasburg should have a lot of success. It is a very rare day when you get Strasburg as an underdog, and we will take a shot here. We believe Matt Cain is still overvalued, as he is living on a name and not on stuff right now. His velocity is not there, and he is not missing bats the way he has in the past.

The Nationals are a better team, and they have the better pitcher on the hill. We expect them to win a close game, and we expect the Giants to be held down in a good Strasburg outing.



NY Yankees(Hughes) +108 $300 to win $324

Phil Hughes got crushed last time out. The Mariners beat him up in Yankee Stadium, so we think his value is a bit depressed in this spot. The last start not withstanding, Hughes has had a nice run. He's been able to hit his spots, and the velocity is good. Hughes will face off against Miguel Gonzalez in this one, and Gonzalez is highly overvalued. He has nominal success last year, but his stuff is inferior in this spot. The Yankees started to hit the ball yesterday, and the Orioles have had a rough run. We think this will continue, and we think Hughes is a great value as an underdog here.
 

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