| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.04 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 39 | 0.00 | +3.41 |
| Season to Date | 66 | 65 | 0.00 | +19.78 |
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Tampa Bay -1½ +120 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Ramon Ortiz has a 2.35 ERA after two starts and 15 innings. Of all the pitchers in MLB, Ortiz has less chance than any of them of maintaining a low ERA because his skills are awful. He’s been nothing but pure, unsustainable luck so far. Ortiz has walked seven batters and struck out four in 15 frames. His xERA is 5.88. Ramon Ortiz is 40-years old and the last time he was an effective major-league pitcher was way back in 2002. Not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work so expect the Rays to put up a crooked number here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Alex Cobb is on his way to elite status. Cobb has 52 K’s in 53 frames, a 1.17 WHIP and an elite groundball rate of 52%. Current Jays have four hits in 24 AB’s against Cobb (.167) and that’s when he wasn’t as good as he is now. Cobb has improved his game due to his sinker. Batters had a .333 BA and .523 SLG% against it in 2012. They have a .143 BA and .179 SLG % against it so far in 2013. Cobb is Cy Young material. He’s getting better with each passing month and he recently struck out 13 batters in 4.2 innings. This is the biggest pitching mismatch on today’s board and perhaps the entire year so far. The line doesn’t reflect that and that’s why there is so much value on the Rays here.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Chicago +125 over PITTSBURGH
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Wandy Rodriguez has started the season with a splash, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after his first eight starts. His skills have been really good due to elite command (9/32 BB/K’s) and a 46% groundball rate but there are reasons for concern. His annual strikeout rate trend coming into this season is on a four year decline. His strikeout rate this season does not come with underlying support, as his early swinging strike rate is an extremely low 5.4%. A 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate could inflict plenty of damage once they regress. Now is the time to sell high on Rodriguez because regression is forthcoming.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
A stress reaction in Matt Garza’s elbow last August ended another strong season, skills-wise. Garza not only pulled off an impressive league switch to the NL in 2011, but in 2012, he more or less thumbed his nose at the notion that 2011 was a fluke. Garza's run the past couple of years has been impressive. His strikeout rate was reaching an elite level, his groundball rate held steady at 47% over his last 50 starts and at the time of his injury, Garza was making a run at being in the league's top tier of starting pitchers. Garza will throw his first pitch of his 2013 season here after throwing six scoreless innings (75 pitches) at Triple-A Thursday. If he goes back to being Matt Garza of the past 2+ years, well, he could ascend to become the most-sought-after pitcher of the summer. He’s eligible for free agency this fall. That’s the interesting part here. Garza is in line for a huge pay day next fall. There is no chance that he would risk losing that if he didn’t feel great. He could easily sit another month if he wasn’t feeling 100% ready. Free agency and millions of dollars is staring Garza in the face and we guarantee you, he’s ready to deliver the goods. Chances are, Garza will be on a strict pitch-count here and it’s for that reason we’ll play this one in five innings.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]ATLANTA -1½ +118 over Minnesota
[FONT=arial !important]T[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]he Twins have dropped six in a row and to fall five games under .500 and they will remain under .500 because they do not have a proven and consistent starter that they can turn to when they need to snap a losing streak. Mike Pelfrey certainly isn’t that guy. Pelfrey faces a familiar foe in a visiting park where he has started eight times. He is 2-5 in those eight starts at Turner Field, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 42.2 IP. In his first season as a member of the Twins, he hasn't been any better, throwing disasters in five of his eight starts thus far with just 18 K’s in 42 frames. Mike Pelfrey is batting practice and the Braves should rip him apart.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Atlanta has won five straight at Turner Field where they’ve scored five runs or more in four of them. Tim Hudson finds himself with an ERA over 5 through nine starts, despite improved skills. Hudson’s strikeout rate, 3.71 xERA, and 55% groundball rate are all improved over last season but his ERA is up largely due to an unlucky 62% strand rate. Hudson is pitching better than he has in years but the surface stats don’t reflect that. They time to step in is here because he receives a very favorable matchup here against the Twins at home. Minnesota has only a .238 road BA and will be without the services of the DH. This one has blowout written all over it.
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