Service Plays Wednesday 5/22/13

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Jimmy Boyd

5* Indiana Pacers +8

Pacers at Heat: What bettors need to know

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7.5, 182.5)

The last time the Miami Heat had a long layoff between series, they came out rusty and dropped Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Indiana Pacers, who visit the Heat for Game 1 of the conference finals Wednesday, are hoping that same rust allows them to get a quick leg up on the defending champs. The Pacers battled Miami for six games in the semifinals last spring before falling short and are determined for a different outcome this time.

Indiana held a 2-1 lead in the series last spring before LeBron James asserted himself with 40 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 as the Heat cruised through the final three games. James is already in attack mode for the series this season, taking offense at a rather benign comment by Pacers coach Frank Vogel and turning it into a two-day news story. “We’re not just another team,” James said. “I don’t understand what he’s saying. But we’re not just another team. That’s not true. He said we’re just another team in their way. We’re a great team.” Of course, Vogel never said the Heat were “just another team,” and simply referred to them as the team that happened to be next on the schedule.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana’s great advantage over Miami is on the interior, where Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George form a frontline bigger than anything the Heat have seen. The Pacers led the NBA in rebounding average during the regular season while Miami finished last. George did a fine job of locking up Carmelo Anthony and forcing him to take bad or contested shot in the semifinals, and will be tasked with doing the same thing to James in the finals. George’s maturation is a big reason the Pacers feel they are better prepared to face the Heat this spring. The All-Star forward averaged 9.7 points and 6.6 rebounds in the 2012 postseason but has lifted those numbers to 19.1 and 8.3, respectively, this postseason while assuming more of the ball handling responsibilities and guarding the oppositions best player. “It’ll be fun,” George told the Indianapolis Star about the chance to guard James. “I always embrace challenges.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami did not have Chris Bosh for much of the series against the Pacers last spring due to an abdominal injury. Bosh is now a key to what the Heat like to do offensively and will operate as the center in an offense that spreads the floor. Miami is counting on Bosh’s ability to hit jumpers from 15 feet and further out to pull Hibbert away from the basket and open up driving lanes for James and Dwyane Wade. The Heat lost to the Pacers twice during the regular season, and James was held to a season-low 13 points in the lone win against Indiana, a 105-91 triumph that marked win No.18 during their 27-game streak. Miami has won 45 of its last 48 games overall. “It only gets more difficult and more challenging,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after closing out the semifinal win over the Chicago Bulls. “That’s what competitors want.”

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Indiana has only one player with experience in the conference finals in backup C Ian Mahimni. James will be making his fifth trip to the conference finals in the last seven years while Wade and Udonis Haslem have helped lead the Heat to five of the last nine including 2013.

2. Wade (knee) has been practicing and does not expect to miss any time.

3. West (right calf) has been limited in practice but is expected to go in Game 1

Heat have played under in Game 1 during "Big Three" Era

The Miami Heat’s surplus of firepower is impressive but NBA bettors sometimes forget just how dominant they can be defensively.

Miami, which has ranked among the Top 6 defensive teams each year since the formation of the “Big Three”, is especially stingy in the playoffs. The Heat are giving up only 84.7 points per game through their first two series this postseason and have held playoff opponents to an average of just 88.3 points over the past three years.

Despite those impressive defensive numbers, Miami owns a 27-22-4 over/under mark in that span. However, under bettors found value in their Game 1 totals during these three playoff runs. The Heat are 3-6-1 over/under in Game 1 of a series since 2011 (65 percent under), including a 1-4-1 O/U mark the last two postseasons.

Miami has limited opponents to 88.3 points in Game 1 situations in that time frame – its playoff norm – but has scored an average of 94.8 points, which is slightly lower than its 96.2 points per game over the last three playoffs.

The total for Game 1 versus the Indiana Pacers opened at 183 points and has been trimmed to 182.5.

The Pacers and Heat finished 2-1 over/under in three meetings this season and own a 6-4 over/under count in their last 10 head-to-head games overall. They posted a 3-3 over/under record in their six-game playoff series last year.

MLB Top 3: Best home/away total bets in baseball
By JASON LOGAN

Watching the winds at Wrigley Field is always on top of a baseball bettor’s daily to-do list. And so far this season, those Windy City gusts have helped total bettors go 14-10 over/under when capping the Chicago Cubs’ home stands.

That may not seem like a huge windfall for over backers, until you compare it to the Cubs’ over/under count on the road. Chicago is 6-13 over/under away from the north side, heading into Tuesday’s game at Pittsburgh. The Cubbies play over 58 percent of the time at home but just 32 percent on the road.

Chicago isn’t the only club with decisively different over/under counts at home and away. Here are three other MLB teams presenting value to total bettors depending on the scenery:

Atlanta Braves (8-10 O/U home, 16-9-1 O/U away)

The Braves pitching has defended the House That Ted Built with an MLB best 2.43 ERA at home while posting a 4.06 ERA on the road – a difference of 1.63 runs. Atlanta is 1-3 over/under to start its current six-game home stand.

Pittsburgh Pirates (7-16-1 O/U home, 13-7 O/U away)

Bucs’ ace A.J. Burnett is a different man inside PNC Park. Last season, he went 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA at home, where the Pirates finished 5-12 over/under in his 17 starts. Burnett is 2-3 with a 2.51 ERA in seven home starts in 2013. Pittsburgh is 1-6 over/under in those home appearances.

Philadelphia Phillies (14-8-1 O/U home, 7-15 O/U away)

Outside of Wrigley Field, Citizens Bank Park is perhaps the ultimate example of how much ballparks can make a difference. The Phillies’ crumbling lineup is having a tough time scoring, ranked 27th in runs per game, averaging four runs at home compared to just 2.95 on the road. Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-best hitters park in the majors this season (behind Wrigley).

NBA Finals MVP odds: Who else besides LeBron?
By JASON LOGAN

According to oddsmakers at CarbonSports.ag, the Miami Heat (-300) have a 75 percent chance of repeating as NBA champions and LeBron James has a 71 percent chance of repeating as NBA Finals MVP.

The online sportsbook has posted odds on the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award, and James – of course – is the overwhelming favorite. Here’s a quick look at some of the notables, besides King James, and their odds to win NBA Finals MVP.

Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs (+500)

The Spurs are priced at +400 to win the NBA title (20 percent chance) and Parker would be a huge part of that upset. The veteran PG was a dark horse for regular season MVP and leads the team with 22.2 points and 6.5 assists this postseason. The other two components of the Spurs’ three-headed monster, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, are listed at +800 and +2,500 respectively.

Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (+1,000)

Bosh is the least sexy of the Heat’s “Big Three” but with Dwyane Wade’s (+1,000) knee hanging by a thread, he’ll need to step up for Miami. He’s played well this postseason and has turned up the intensity on defense. The Heat will look to Bosh to stretch the Pacers’ interior defense with his perimeter touch and keep their beasts off the boards in the East finals.

Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers (+2,500)

Oddsmakers are giving Indiana (+1,500) a slim 6.25 percent shot at winning the NBA title. If the Pacers can do the improbable, their big man in the middle will be the reason. Hibbert exploits the Heat’s hole in the paint and doesn’t have to score 20 points to have an impact.

Mike Conley Jr., Memphis Grizzlies (+5,000)

Conley isn’t the favorite among his teammates to win NBA Finals MVP – Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph both at +2,500 - but he’s been the stick that stirs the drink in Memphis. He’s scoring nearly three points more and dishing out an additional 1.6 assists per game in the postseason, compared to his season stats.

Here’s the full list of NBA Finals MVP odds:

LeBron James (Heat) -250
Tony Parker (Spurs) +500
Tim Duncan (Spurs) +800
Dwyane Wade (Heat) +1000
Chris Bosh (Heat) +1000
Paul George (Pacers) +1800
Roy Hibbert (Pacers) +1800
Manu Ginobili (Spurs) +2500
David West (Pacers) +2500
Zach Randolph (Grizzlies) +2500
Marc Gasol (Grizzlies) +2500
Mike Conley (Grizzlies) +5000
George Hill (Pacers) +7500
Field (Any Other Player) +1800

Penguins at Senators: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators (+122, 5.5)

Penguins lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Pittsburgh Penguins were moments away from securing a commanding 3-0 advantage in their Eastern Conference second-round series - only to let it slip away. The seventh-seeded Ottawa Senators will look to feed off the momentum of their double-overtime victory and even their series with the top-seeded Penguins at two games apiece on Wednesday when they reconvene at Scotiabank Place. Captain Daniel Alfredsson netted a short-handed goal with 29 seconds remaining in regulation and fourth-liner Colin Greening scored for the third time in the series at 7:39 of the second overtime as Ottawa claimed a 2-1 victory Sunday.

"You can see the desperation they have," captain Sidney Crosby said. "They want to make sure it's 2-2 going back to Pittsburgh (for Game 5 on Friday) and obviously we know the scenario is to come here and get one of two on the road and go back home with a chance to finish off the series would be great." Tyler Kennedy scored the Penguins' lone goal Sunday and Tomas Vokoun suffered his first loss since replacing Marc-Andre Fleury despite making 46 saves.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, RDS, TSN, CBC

ABOUT THE PENGUINS: Evgeni Malkin saw his eight-game point streak come to an end - in frustrating fashion. The reigning Hart Trophy winner failed to convert a point-blank chance early in the second period - with the end result being a broken stick at his own hands. Malkin also had a golden opportunity to end the contest in the first overtime, only to be denied by a sprawling save from Craig Anderson.

ABOUT THE SENATORS: Coach Paul MacLean didn't mince words when talking about the contributions of his fourth line - Greening, rookie Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Erik Condra. "That line - in the eight games that we've played so far - has consistently been our best line in the playoffs," MacLean said. "Game to game, shift to shift, they've been extremely important to us. Not only 5-on-5, but they also contribute killing penalties." Pageau had a goal in Game 2 of this series and a hat trick in Game 3 of the first-round set versus Montreal. Condra has one goal and five assists on his four-game point streak.

TRENDS:

* Penguins are 39-12 in their last 51 overall.
* Senators are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Penguins are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

OVERTIME:

1. After being a spectator for the last six contests, Pittsburgh C Jussi Jokinen skated with the fourth line and worked on the power play in Tuesday's practice. Jokinen could be inserted into the lineup for Game 4.

2. Ottawa C Jason Spezza registered four shots on goal, won 15 of 25 faceoffs and finished with a minus-1 in his return from back surgery.

3. Coach Dan Bylsma did not provide an update on LW Brenden Morrow, who made a premature exit from practice on Tuesday.

Pacers, Heat Begin East Finals on Wednesday

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -8, Total: 182.5

Indiana is looking to steal Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals when it travels to Miami on Wednesday night.

In the conference semifinals, the Pacers won a hard-fought, six-game battle against the Knicks, while the Heat beat up on a depleted Bulls team in five games. These clubs are meeting for the second straight season in the playoffs, with Miami taking that second-round series in six games. Since then, these teams have met three times with the home team winning and covering each contest. Indiana won 87-77 on Jan. 8 and 102-89 on Feb. 1, and lost 105-91 in Miami on March 10. The Pacers have not been a good road team this season at 21-25 SU (22-24 ATS), which includes a 7-17 ATS mark (29%) when they visit a winning team. Miami, on the other hand, is 41-5 SU (89%) at home this season, but just 24-22 ATS at AmericanAirlines Arena. However, this club is an insane 45-3 SU (94%) and 31-17 ATS (65%) in its past 48 games since Feb. 3. But the long rest might be more beneficial to the Pacers who are 5-2 ATS with at least three off-days, as opposed to the Heat, who are just 3-4 ATS in this scenario, allowing 99.9 PPG in these seven contests.

The Pacers got by the Knicks with a balanced attack that was led by SF Paul George. George is averaging 19.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 5.0 APG in these playoffs, but he is shooting just 40.4% FG. Despite George's heroics against New York (19.5 PPG in series), it was SG Lance Stephenson who made the difference for Frank Vogel’s squad in the clincher with his career-high 25 points (9-of-13 FG) in Game 6 while also grabbing 10 rebounds. This was quite a surprise considering he's averaging 9.8 PPG (44% FG) and 8.1 RPG in the playoffs. C Roy Hibbert averaged a double-double (13.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 3.2 BPG) versus the Knicks and is averaging 14.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG and 2.5 BPG in the playoffs. Hibbert was a huge presence for Indiana defensively too, as he recorded 3.2 blocks per game against New York. PG George Hill (15.6 PPG, 4.4 APG, 4.2 RPG in playoffs) suffered a concussion in the East semifinals, but after missing Game 5 due to lack of medical clearance, he bounced back in Game 6 with a solid 12 points, five rebounds and four assists. PF David West was consistent against the Knicks with 14.7 PPG and 7.8 RPG and scored 17 points in each of the final two games of the series.

The Heat were fortunate to play the East semifinals against a Bulls team that was without not only Derrick Rose, but also Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Miami lost Game 1 at home and it seemed like the club was in for a scare, but it responded by winning the next four games of the series. So far in these playoffs, SF LeBron James has been absolutely dominant for the Heat, averaging 24.0 PPG (52% FG), 7.3 RPG, 7.3 APG and 1.7 SPG. In last year's playoffs, James lit up Indiana for 30.0 PPG (50% FG), 10.8 RPG and 6.2 APG in the six-game series. SG Dwyane Wade has really struggled so far in the postseason, however, which could be due to a lingering knee injury. Wade is averaging just 13.0 PPG (45% FG) in 32.9 MPG, which is down considerably from his 21.2 PPG on 52% FG during the regular season. He did have 18 points (7-of-13 FG) in Game 5 after having netting six points (3-of-10 FG) in Game 4. The Heat are going to need PF Chris Bosh to play well this series, as the Pacers have a ton of size down low. Bosh has averaged just 13.2 PPG so far in the postseason and will need to be more effective than that if the Heat are going to get by a tough Pacers squad. Bosh has done a nice job on the glass though with 8.3 RPG, a big increase from his 6.8 RPG during the regular season.

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview

Heat vs. Pacers

The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers duke it out in the Eastern Conference championship with a ticket to the NBA Finals on the line.

Here’s a look at how these teams stack up and their odds to win the series heading into Game 1 Wednesday:

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers

Season series: Pacers 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 over/under
Series prices: Heat -700, Pacers +500

Why bet the Heat: Miami has victories in 45 of its last 48 games and an 8-1 record this postseason, with seven of those wins by double figures. Dwyane Wade will have had a week off to rest his ailing knee before Game 1 Wednesday, and Chris Bosh is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Bosh had nearly three times as many blocks as Chicago big man Joakim Noah (11 to 4) in the last round and held his own in the rebounding department against the much bigger Noah. Bosh appears poised to handle the Pacers’ intimidating frontcourt of Roy Hibbert and David West and no Heat player was betting in the clutch than CB4 this season. Bosh shot 77 percent from the field (24 for 31) in the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer this season.

Why bet the Pacers: The Pacers have a distinct size advantage over the Heat. Indiana has four players that are six-foot-nine or taller, while Miami has only two. The Pacers took two of three by double digits from the Heat during the regular season, outrebounding Miami by 11 boards per game over the three-game stretch. Indiana has been very impressive when it comes to defending the 3-point line. Opposing teams shot just 32.7 percent against the Pacers from beyond the arc this season – tops in the Association. The Pacers were one of two teams (Knicks were the other) to win their season series against Miami this year.

Hockey Crusher
Ottawa Senators +129 over Pittsburgh
(System Record: 68-3, won last game)
Overall Record: 68-45-4

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/22/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 850-399 (.681)
ATS: 666-614 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 1662-1568 (.515)
Over/Under: 657-623 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 908-839 (.520)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game #1
MIAMI 97, Indiana 88

Baseball Crusher
Chicago White Sox -115 over Red Sox
(System Record: 23-4, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 23-29-1

Soccer Crusher
Godoy Cruz + Olimpo Bahia Blanca UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 400-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 400-348-49

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/22/13 Prediction

Season: 309-193 (.616)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #4
Pittsburgh vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Indiana at Miami[/h] The Heat look to open up the series and take advantage of an Indiana team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games. Miami is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Pittsburgh at Ottawa[/h] The Senators look to follow up their Game 3 win and build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 home games against a team with a road winning percentage above .600. Ottawa is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the New York Rangers Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s the New York Mets. The deficit is 496 sirignanos.

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Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Wednesday

Yankees -125

Hondo

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