| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.76 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 41 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Season to Date | 68 | 69 | 0.00 | +16.52 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
All plays are 2 units
Chicago +111 over PITTSBURGH (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Jeanmar Gomez is 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA after four starts and nine appearances overall. Gomez is a prime “sell high” candidate because regression is guaranteed to occur over the coming weeks. Last season, Gomez went 4-5 with a 5.96 ERA in 91 innings for the Indians. His early season success hides the ugly major league strikeout rate and walk history. Including this season, Gomez has just 131 K’s in 239 major-league innings. More disturbing is the 85 walks he’s allowed. In 32 frames this year, Komez has 14 walks and 19 K’s. Gomez’s profile isn't good enough even with a strong groundball rate and he's crossed 50% in that department only once. xERA (4.88), command, and dominant/disaster splits history are all telling us to stay away. Never ignore xERA.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Edwin Jackson is the complete opposite of Gomez in that Jackson has ugly surface stats but under the hood, it reveals that Jackson is as good as ever and his ever-changing address (Chicago is his eighth different uniform) has only reinforced the “eh” factor of his surface numbers. Jackson’s xERAs the past three seasons have all been sub-4.00 and that includes this years, xERA of 3.87. His disaster start rate is just 11% during that time. Jackson’s groundball rate 51% this year) is trending upwards, which should also keep implosion starts at bay. He’s just 29 and is as durable as they come with at least 31 starts in each of the past six seasons. Edwin Jackson doesn’t attract much attention but he’s a pitcher who is reliable (‘AAA’ rating) and has some hidden upside, as his 2012’s skills shows. His 1-6 record has also decreased his value from a betting perspective and we’re buying low. We’ll play the Cubbies in the first five innings because they seldom come from behind and they often lose leads late in the game.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Baltimore +122 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Blue Jays are certainly playing better baseball of late with nine wins in their past 15 games but a close look reveals that all but one of those wins came against below average starters. The Jays nine wins over their past 15 games were against the following starters: Joe Saunders, Jeremy Hellickson (twice), Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong and Jake Odorizzi. They did beat Clay Buchholz and deserve credit for doing so but the Red Sox scored just twice and the Jays won 3-2. The Blue Jays still have many issues that include a low hit total (370) that ranks them third last in the AL and a poor infield defense. Through eight starts, Brandon Morrow is looking less like the potential Cy Young candidate he was touted as in many publications and more like the maddening version bettors knew all too well prior to last year's breakout. Unlike in years past, Morrow can't blame poor luck for his struggles. He's managed to keep fly-balls somewhat at bay since he became a full-time starter in 2010 but the pendulum is swaying back into dangerous territory. Accuracy issues that plagued him in the past have returned, only this time he's not striking out enough batters to counter it. Hit % and strand % were scapegoats for his ERA/xERA gaps in '10 and '11. However, there's no silver lining this year, as his results match his skills Morrow has one win in eight starts. He’s allowed 49 hits in 45 frames and eight of those have gone yard. Morrow has surrendered two bombs in four of the eight games he’s started this season. Morrow has also been ineffective against lefties, which was a strength of his in the past. With no xERA potential to speak of, the new Morrow offers very little upside. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
With the Orioles in need of a starting pitcher to fill in the rotation, they have summoned the highly-touted Kevin Gausman to fill the void. Ranked as the Orioles’ number two prospect and the 53 rd best prospect in the minors, Gausman has number two upside due to his power arsenal and ability to command all his pitches. Tall and lean he brings a plus fastball sitting in the 92-98 range with plus movement. His second best pitch is his change-up that features plus fade and solid depth. To accompany his fastball-changeup combo, Gausman shows a solid curveball and slider but due to his arm action he may be more likely to scrap the curve and stick with a plus three-pitch mix down the road. In the meantime, all four pitches work and until he shows otherwise they will remain intact. To complement his power stuff, he displays plus plus command of his pitches and constantly pounds all quadrants of the strike zone. While there is not much more to his ceiling, he is already plus across the board. With the Orioles lacking a front of the rotation starter, if Gausman can translate the same success he had in the minors he may be holding down the top spot for years to come. Through 61.1 innings of work in the minors, Gausman has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and he and the O’s are worth a wager against the overvalued Blue Jays.[/FONT][/FONT]
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Cleveland +132 over BOSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Indians drop two in a row and all of a sudden they’re taking back a tag like this against Ryan Dempster and the Red Sox? Ridiculous. Prior to dropping two straight, the Indians had won 18 of their last 22 games. They lead the majors with a road batting average of .274 and a road OPS of .804. The entire team figures to be extra jacked up today in support of their manager, Terry Francona, who will be going back to Boston for the first time since he was fired. Zach McAllister entered the season as a premium sleeper with upside, especially if he could improve his results against right-handed bats. He has a nifty 2.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after 51 IP, in large part due to his elite command against RH bats. Batters haven't been able to do much against his 91 mph four-seam fastball. After managing a .470 SLG % against it in 2012, they have a mere .370 SLG when facing it in 2013. It has plenty of horizontal movement and it's been keeping hitters off balance all year. McAllister’s groundball rate is trending the right way, his line drive rate was just 12% of his past three starts and the Indians have won five of his eight starts. Incidentally, the Indians two losses over the past two days were to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, two of the elite pitchers in the game today. Ryan Dempster is not among that group.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Dempster put up a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first 30 innings in April. Then May rolled in and Dempster’s ERA is now at 4.27 and his WHIP is up to 1.31. In his last start, Dempster walked six batters and now has issued 25 walks in 53 frames. Dempster has been tagged for 15 hits and 11 runs over his past two starts covering just 9.2 innings. He’s also benefitted from facing the Blue Jays twice, the Twins twice and Houston once in five of his eight starts. He does have an unusually high strikeout rate of 63 batters in his 52.2 innings so far and it’s due to Dempster using his splitter to generate a lot of swings and misses. Batters had a 0.37 BA against that splitter in the first month but the film is out and in May, batters caught up to Dempster with a BA against the splitter of .372. Ryan Dempster is 37-years old with a ton of mileage on his arm. His fastball has shown a three-year velocity decline and it now tops out at 89 MPH. We always stress to play value and while anything can happen in one game, there is no question the Red Sox are overpriced here and with that, we’ll gladly step in and accept that terrific value.
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Chicago +111 over PITTSBURGH (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. Jeanmar Gomez is 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA after four starts and nine appearances overall. Gomez is a prime “sell high” candidate because regression is guaranteed to occur over the coming weeks. Last season, Gomez went 4-5 with a 5.96 ERA in 91 innings for the Indians. His early season success hides the ugly major league strikeout rate and walk history. Including this season, Gomez has just 131 K’s in 239 major-league innings. More disturbing is the 85 walks he’s allowed. In 32 frames this year, Komez has 14 walks and 19 K’s. Gomez’s profile isn't good enough even with a strong groundball rate and he's crossed 50% in that department only once. xERA (4.88), command, and dominant/disaster splits history are all telling us to stay away. Never ignore xERA.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Edwin Jackson is the complete opposite of Gomez in that Jackson has ugly surface stats but under the hood, it reveals that Jackson is as good as ever and his ever-changing address (Chicago is his eighth different uniform) has only reinforced the “eh” factor of his surface numbers. Jackson’s xERAs the past three seasons have all been sub-4.00 and that includes this years, xERA of 3.87. His disaster start rate is just 11% during that time. Jackson’s groundball rate 51% this year) is trending upwards, which should also keep implosion starts at bay. He’s just 29 and is as durable as they come with at least 31 starts in each of the past six seasons. Edwin Jackson doesn’t attract much attention but he’s a pitcher who is reliable (‘AAA’ rating) and has some hidden upside, as his 2012’s skills shows. His 1-6 record has also decreased his value from a betting perspective and we’re buying low. We’ll play the Cubbies in the first five innings because they seldom come from behind and they often lose leads late in the game.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]Baltimore +122 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Blue Jays are certainly playing better baseball of late with nine wins in their past 15 games but a close look reveals that all but one of those wins came against below average starters. The Jays nine wins over their past 15 games were against the following starters: Joe Saunders, Jeremy Hellickson (twice), Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong and Jake Odorizzi. They did beat Clay Buchholz and deserve credit for doing so but the Red Sox scored just twice and the Jays won 3-2. The Blue Jays still have many issues that include a low hit total (370) that ranks them third last in the AL and a poor infield defense. Through eight starts, Brandon Morrow is looking less like the potential Cy Young candidate he was touted as in many publications and more like the maddening version bettors knew all too well prior to last year's breakout. Unlike in years past, Morrow can't blame poor luck for his struggles. He's managed to keep fly-balls somewhat at bay since he became a full-time starter in 2010 but the pendulum is swaying back into dangerous territory. Accuracy issues that plagued him in the past have returned, only this time he's not striking out enough batters to counter it. Hit % and strand % were scapegoats for his ERA/xERA gaps in '10 and '11. However, there's no silver lining this year, as his results match his skills Morrow has one win in eight starts. He’s allowed 49 hits in 45 frames and eight of those have gone yard. Morrow has surrendered two bombs in four of the eight games he’s started this season. Morrow has also been ineffective against lefties, which was a strength of his in the past. With no xERA potential to speak of, the new Morrow offers very little upside. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
With the Orioles in need of a starting pitcher to fill in the rotation, they have summoned the highly-touted Kevin Gausman to fill the void. Ranked as the Orioles’ number two prospect and the 53 rd best prospect in the minors, Gausman has number two upside due to his power arsenal and ability to command all his pitches. Tall and lean he brings a plus fastball sitting in the 92-98 range with plus movement. His second best pitch is his change-up that features plus fade and solid depth. To accompany his fastball-changeup combo, Gausman shows a solid curveball and slider but due to his arm action he may be more likely to scrap the curve and stick with a plus three-pitch mix down the road. In the meantime, all four pitches work and until he shows otherwise they will remain intact. To complement his power stuff, he displays plus plus command of his pitches and constantly pounds all quadrants of the strike zone. While there is not much more to his ceiling, he is already plus across the board. With the Orioles lacking a front of the rotation starter, if Gausman can translate the same success he had in the minors he may be holding down the top spot for years to come. Through 61.1 innings of work in the minors, Gausman has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and he and the O’s are worth a wager against the overvalued Blue Jays.[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Cleveland +132 over BOSTON
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Indians drop two in a row and all of a sudden they’re taking back a tag like this against Ryan Dempster and the Red Sox? Ridiculous. Prior to dropping two straight, the Indians had won 18 of their last 22 games. They lead the majors with a road batting average of .274 and a road OPS of .804. The entire team figures to be extra jacked up today in support of their manager, Terry Francona, who will be going back to Boston for the first time since he was fired. Zach McAllister entered the season as a premium sleeper with upside, especially if he could improve his results against right-handed bats. He has a nifty 2.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after 51 IP, in large part due to his elite command against RH bats. Batters haven't been able to do much against his 91 mph four-seam fastball. After managing a .470 SLG % against it in 2012, they have a mere .370 SLG when facing it in 2013. It has plenty of horizontal movement and it's been keeping hitters off balance all year. McAllister’s groundball rate is trending the right way, his line drive rate was just 12% of his past three starts and the Indians have won five of his eight starts. Incidentally, the Indians two losses over the past two days were to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, two of the elite pitchers in the game today. Ryan Dempster is not among that group.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Dempster put up a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first 30 innings in April. Then May rolled in and Dempster’s ERA is now at 4.27 and his WHIP is up to 1.31. In his last start, Dempster walked six batters and now has issued 25 walks in 53 frames. Dempster has been tagged for 15 hits and 11 runs over his past two starts covering just 9.2 innings. He’s also benefitted from facing the Blue Jays twice, the Twins twice and Houston once in five of his eight starts. He does have an unusually high strikeout rate of 63 batters in his 52.2 innings so far and it’s due to Dempster using his splitter to generate a lot of swings and misses. Batters had a 0.37 BA against that splitter in the first month but the film is out and in May, batters caught up to Dempster with a BA against the splitter of .372. Ryan Dempster is 37-years old with a ton of mileage on his arm. His fastball has shown a three-year velocity decline and it now tops out at 89 MPH. We always stress to play value and while anything can happen in one game, there is no question the Red Sox are overpriced here and with that, we’ll gladly step in and accept that terrific value.
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