Service Plays Friday 5/24/13

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The Daniel Curry Index

05/24/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 851-399 (.681)
ATS: 666-615 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 1662-1569 (.514)
Over/Under: 658-623 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 909-839 (.520)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game #2
MIAMI 98, Indiana 89

Pacers at Heat: What bettors need to know

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7, 180.5)

Miami leads best-of-seven series 1-0.

The biggest concern the Indiana Pacers had before Game 1 was how they would match up when the Miami Heat went to a small lineup. Turns out that those concerns are still around. The Heat will be looking to take a 2-0 lead when they host the Pacers in Game 2 Friday. Indiana elected to leave 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert on the bench on the decisive play of overtime in Game 1, afraid Miami would spread the defense by running Chris Bosh wide.

Turned out the Heat did not need Bosh on the final play, but the Pacers definitely needed Hibbert, as no one was around to stop LeBron James’ hard drive to the rim on the game-winning bucket. “Obviously, with the way it worked out, it would have been better to have Roy in the game,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel said. “But you don’t know. If that happens, maybe Bosh is making a jump shot and we’re all talking about that. James ended up with 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists but the Pacers showed that they will not be an easy team to bump off en route to a third straight appearance in the NBA Finals for the Heat.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE PACERS: Lost in the decision-making questions after Game 1 was the play of Indiana forward Paul George, who not only played solid defense on James most of the night but scored 25 of his 27 points in the second half and overtime. The All-Star buried a 32-foot 3-pointer with 0.7 seconds left in regulation to send the game to overtime and calmly hit three free throws with 2.2 seconds remaining in overtime to give the Pacers a one-point lead. But the final play will be the one Indiana looks back at if it falls one win short in the series. Vogel’s idea was to put a switching lineup on the floor and force James to shoot a jumper, but the defense crept up too close on the inbounds pass. “I could see why coach wanted to take me out,” Hibbert said. “With 2.2 seconds left on the clock, they can throw it to Bosh and I’m over-committing in the paint and he can hit a jump shot. My mentality is always to protect the rim.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: James asserted before the series that Miami wasn’t just another team, but a great team. For much of the night on Wednesday, the Heat did in fact look like just another team, equally as good as the Pacers but not head-and-shoulders above. James went about proving himself right on that final play, when he drove toward the basket from above the 3-point line with such force that no one dared get in front of him before he was able to lay it off the glass just in front of the buzzer. “Two teams fought hard,” James said. “We were able to make one more play.” James actually made two driving layups in the final 10 seconds of overtime, the first putting the Heat up by two before George hit the three free throws. Miami struggled to space the floor (5-of-18 from 3-point range) and hit free throws (16-of-25) but got a huge boost off the bench from Chris Andersen, who provided 16 points on 7-of-7 shooting in 18 minutes.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The triple-double was James’ ninth in his postseason career, one behind Rajon Rondo and Larry Bird for third all-time.

2. Dwyane Wade (knee) played a postseason-high 41 minutes in Game 1 and scored 19 points on 9-of-15 shooting. He expects to be ready for Game 2.

3. The teams combined for 41 turnovers in Game 1.

Three pitchers with value for under bettors Friday

Following a relatively quiet Thursday in the major leagues, action picks up with a full slate of games Friday. There are a number of pitchers taking the hill who have been hot under picks in their most recent starts. Here is a look at three of them.

A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates (3-4, 2.57 ERA)

The under is 4-0 in Burnett's last four starts and is 8-2 in his 10 starts this season. The Bucs ace barely gets any run support at all this year as the offense provides him with just 2.60 runs per game.

Burnett gets the ball against the Milwaukee Brewers Friday.

Eric Stults, San Diego Padres (4-3, 4.05 ERA)

The under is 4-0 in the lefty's previous four starts and is 5-1 in his last six. Stults has allowed just seven earned runs in his last four outings. That's good enough for a sparkling 2.39 ERA in that stretch.

The Padres are on the road to face the Arizona Diamondbacks Friday.

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (3-2, 3.52 ERA)

Tillman has also been pitching well with the under going 4-0 in his last four starts. The O's supply Tillman with the 10th lowest run support total in the American League with just 3.56 runs per start.

Tillman and the Orioles are in Toronto to face the Blue Jays Friday.

Oakland A's pitching keying hot under run

Once upon a time, the Oakland Athletics were cashing in for over bettors at a record setting pace. The A's started the season with a blistering 25-7 O/U record and were as close to a sure thing as you could find.

Oakland has decided to flip the script on us and has posted an under record of 9-2 in its past 11 games, including two in a row heading into action Friday.

Pitching was an especially soft spot for Oakland early on, but oh how things have changed. The staff had been good for the first five games of their previous 11, but over the last six, the ERA is an amazing 1.69.

There is a good opportunity for some more under bets in the future as the A's open a three-game series versus the Houston Astros Friday. The Astros are 10th in the American League in batting average (.246) and 14th in on-base percentage (.306).

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rangers Thursday.

Friday it’s the Heat. The deficit is 504 sirignanos.

Pacers Seek Payback in Friday's Game 2 in Miami

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 2 - Miami leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7, Total: 180.5

Indiana gets its second chance at a win on the road in Miami on Friday after LeBron James’ buzzer-beater spoiled the upset bid in Game 1.

The Pacers had everything going for them in Game 1, but they just couldn’t come away with a victory towards the end. With 2.2 seconds left in the overtime, Dwyane Wade fouled Paul George on a three-pointer. George made all three free throws to put Indiana up 102-101, but LeBron James answered by scoring on a layup a as time expired to give Miami a 103-102 victory in Game 1. The Pacers out-rebounded the Heat by a margin of five in the game (43-38), but they just could not stop James, who had a triple-double. Pacers head coach Frank Vogel elected to sit his best shot-blocker, C Roy Hibbert, on the game's final play leaving James a wide open driving lane to the basket. The Heat failed to cover and are now just 1-4 ATS in their past five home games, but Indiana hasn’t been much better on the road, going just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games played away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers have not been a good road team this season at 21-26 SU (23-24 ATS), which includes an 8-17 ATS mark (32%) when they visit a winning team. Miami, on the other hand, improved to 42-5 SU (89.4%) at home this season, but just 24-23 ATS at AmericanAirlines Arena. However, this club is an insane 46-3 SU (94%) and 31-18 ATS (63%) in its past 49 games since Feb. 3.

PF David West was the best player on the floor for the Pacers in Game 1, finishing with 26 points (11-of-17 FG) and five rebounds in 41 minutes. SF Paul George, who hit the three free throws that gave the Pacers a lead late, had a team-high 27 points (7-of-16 FG, 3-of-6 threes, 10-of-11 FT), five assists and four rebounds in 47 minutes. C Roy Hibbert also played a very good game for Indiana, finishing with 19 points (9-of-18 FG), nine rebounds and two blocks in 41 minutes. Indiana’s frontcourt was dominant in the game, but the backcourt will need to improve if this team is going to beat the Heat in this series. PG George Hill and SG Lance Stephenson combined to shoot just 4-of-19 FG and a combined 0-for-7 on threes. Although Hill had seven assists and five steals while Stephenson pulled down a game-best 12 rebounds with three steals, these guards must be able to hit shots, and luckily for them, it is unlikely they shoot that poorly again.

Erik Spoelstra drew up a play that got SF LeBron James one-on-one with Paul George with tons of open floor space with two seconds left and James got to the rim and finished with a layup as the buzzer expired. In the game, James did it all with 30 points (12-of-24 FG), 10 assists, 10 rebounds and three blocks in 47 minutes. SG Dwyane Wade also played one of his best games of the playoffs, finishing with 19 points (9-of-15 FG), six rebounds and five assists. Wade also played great defense as he finished the game with three steals before fouling out with 2.2 seconds left in overtime. PF Chris Bosh added 17 points and two blocks for Miami, as he anchored the defense down low that the Pacers had no trouble scoring on. Bosh will need to do a better job defensively in Game 2, otherwise the Heat will have to use PF Chris Andersen for more minutes. Andersen played an unbelievable Game 1, finishing with 16 points (7-of-7 FG) and five rebounds while not missing a shot.

John Harrison

Pacers / Heat - OVER 180.5

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Kendrick is 3-1, 2.20 in his last seven starts. Zimmerman is 4-1, 1.13 in his last five outings.
-- Cubs won last five Feldman starts (4-0, 1.27). Arroyo is 2-0, 0.00 (14.1 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Burnett is 3-2, 2.35 in his last seven starts.
-- McCarthy is 1-0, 1.16 in his last three starts. Stults is 2-1, 2.39 in his last four outings.
-- Capuano is 1-0, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
-- Lynn is 6-1, 2.82 in his last eight starts.
-- Chatwood is 2-0, 0.77 in his last couple starts.

-- Koehler is 0-2, 2.45 in two starts this season; Miami scored three runs in his two starts.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 2.27 in his last six starts.
-- Phelps is 1-1, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- Masterson is 3-0, 1.17 in his last three starts.
-- Angels won last four Vargas starts (3-0, 2.20).

Cold pitchers
-- Mets are 0-8 when Hefner starts (0-2, 6.19 last three). Medlen is 0-4, 4.54 in his last six starts.
-- Estrada is 1-1, 7.71 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-2, 6.00 in his last four starts.

-- Danks is making first '13 start; he is 57-60, 4.12 in 159 career starts; he was 2-0, 3.18 in four minor league starts this season.

-- Nolin has made only six AA starts (3-0, 1.19) with three of six this year; this is his MLB debut. .
-- Sanchez is 1-3, 5.82 in his last four starts. Deduno was 6-5, 4.44 in 15 starts LY; this is his first '13 start (0-0, 2.70 in three AAA starts).
-- Hernandez is 1-1, 5.48 in his last five starts.
-- Lackey is 1-3, 5.64 in his last four starts.
-- Milone is 1-5, 4.23 in his last six starts; A's scored eight runs in those games. Bedard is 0-3, 8.46 in his last six starts.
-- Mendoza is 1-1, 6.95 in his last four starts.
-- Grimm is 1-3, 5.79 in his last four starts. Saunders is 1-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Kendrick 4-9; Zimmerman 1-9
-- Medlen 1-9; Hefner 4-8
-- Feldman 2-8; Arroyo 1-9
-- Burnett 3-10; Estrada 1-9
-- Stults 1-9; McCarthy 4-9
-- Lynn 2-9; Capuano 1-4
-- Chatwood 1-3; Lincecum 3-9

-- Koehler 1-2; Danks 0-0

-- Tillman 1-9; Nolin 0-0
-- Deduno 0-0; Sanchez 2-9
-- Phelps 1-4; RHernandez 2-8
-- Masterson 2-10; Lackey 2-6
-- Milone 4-9; Bedard 4-7
-- Vargas 0-9; Mendoza 1-5
-- Grimm 3-7; Saunders 2-9

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Philly road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-2-1 in Atlanta's last fifteen road games.
-- 14 of 21 Cub road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight San Diego games; last five Arizona games stayed under the total. .
-- Six of last eight Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Colorado games stayed under the total.

-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight White Sox games. Four of last five Miami games stayed under the total.

-- Over is 5-2-1 in Baltimore's last eight games.
-- Last three Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve Bronx games; eight of last ten Tampa Bay home games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cleveland games.
-- Six of last seven Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games went over the total.
-- 10 of last 15 games at Safeco Field stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Phillies won seven of their last ten games.
-- Atlanta won its last six games, scoring 34 runs.
-- Reds won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last nine games.
-- Cardinals won 16 of their last 21 games.
-- Rockies won five of their last six games. San Francisco won five of its last six home games.

-- White Sox won six of their last nine games.

-- Blue Jays won seven of their last ten games.
-- Detroit won its last three games, scoring 23 runs.
-- Rays won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Indians won six of their last eight games.
-- A's won five of their last six games. Houston is 4-3 in its last seven games.
-- Angels won their last five games, scoring 42 runs.
-- Rangers won six of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Nationals lost four of their last five games.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Padres lost eight of their last twelve road games. Arizona lost three of its last four games overall.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last six games.

-- Marlins lost 12 of their last 15 games.

-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost its last nine games, allowing 58 runs.
-- Bronx lost three of its last five road games.
-- Red Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost their last six games, outscored 46-16.

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/24/13 Prediction

Season: 311-193 (.617)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #5
PITTSBURGH 4, Ottawa 2

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Indiana at Miami[/h] The Heat look to follow up their 103-102 win in Game 1 and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Cleveland at Boston[/h] The Indians look to follow up their 12-3 win yesterday and build on their 14-3 record in their last 17 games after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Ottawa at Pittsburgh[/h] The Penguins look to follow up their 7-3 win in Game 4 and build on their 7-2 record in their last 9 games after scoring 5 goals or more in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (-220) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-220). Here are all of today's picks.

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