MLB PICKS and ANALYSIS for 5/24/13

TheGhostHomedogs · May 24, 2013

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Philly (Kendrick) @ Washington (Zimmerman)-----For beginners, Utley is on the DL to add insult to injury to this decimated Philly batting order. The wind is expected to be blowing in from the NNW at 20 MPH also. Another angle to examine is that Kendrick's L5 starts vs. the Nats have gone UNDER 4-1. Also in Zimmerman's L5 starts, the UNDER has gone 4-1. Only 2 games out of the L10 Kendrick vs. Nats/ Zimmerman vs. Phillies games have seen a final score with a total exceeding 7. Philly is only avg. 3.1 RPG on the road while the Nats aren't much better at 3.6. The Nationals have only scored 9 runs their L5 games and will be counting on Zimmerman to give them a chance. Zimmerman is ranked 3rd in the NL in WHIP at 0.87 and his 1.62 ERA supports that. We are high on this Zimmerman guy as he has developed into a Top 5 pitcher in the NL. Zimmerman's 1-4 career record vs. the Phillies will keep us away from laying the big price with him tonight although many of those starts were when Philly was a powerhouse but things have changed now. Kendrick will need to bring his 'A' game no doubt, but has been sharp as a razor on the road with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.71 ERA in night games having gone 7 + innings in all 4 starts. This looks like a good one, a good UNDER that it is.----1*[Under]

Baltimore (Tillman) @ Toronto (Nolin-L)-----The Blue jays will be calling Nolin to make his MLB debut and this has OVER written all over it. The OVER is 12-5 L17 Toronto games and the Baltimore bullpen is getting tagged recently so extra runs look to be a possibility in the late innings. Tillman is a work horse and he can go 100-110 pitches and will probably do so considering the shaky bullpen. Bautista has 2 HR in 9 AB off Tillman and Melky Cabrera is 2-for-5 with 3 RBI vs. Tillman also. There is not a lot going on in this one, but if you get involved, go ahead and take it ------[Over]

Minnesota (Deduno) @ Detroit (Sanchez)-----Boy, these Twins will mess up a wet dream. Now they are counting on Dedundo from the Dominican Republic to smooth things out. Deduno was in the Twins rotation last year and made 2 starts vs. the Tigers. Overall, he has given up 10 runs off 12 hits and 8 BB in only 9.1 innings. Cabrera is a thorn in the side right now to EVERYBODY he is facing. If you walk him, then Prince Fielder is batting. 500 on the year after Cabrera is intentionally walked. Sanchez for the Tigers found his self laying -220 back on 5/01 to the Twins only to lose 6-2. Sanchez is coming off a short outing vs. the Rangers (2.2 IP, 9 hits, 5 runs ). We like his 68:14 K/BB ratio but he is getting tagged by lefties too much for us to lay -1.5 or -220 with him. This is a good game to take a -----[Pass]

Atlanta (Medlen) @ NY Mets (Hefner)----If you want to talk about teams headed in opposite directions, here is a prime example. The Braves have won 6 straight and 7 of 9 while the Mets have dropped 8 of their L11 and are 2-11 L13 home games. To make things worse, they have Hefner on the mound tonight and the Mets are 0-8 in his 8 starts TY. In Hefner's one career start LY , he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in 2.2 innings. His appearance was short-lived and the Braves finished off the bullpen with a 11-3 win. Medlen went 3-0 LY vs. the Mets and only allowed 4 runs in 18 IP with a 14:4 K/BB ratio. The price is high in this one, but sometimes you got to be willing to lay some lumber to make money and tonight we have no problem riding with HOTLANTA in this one. ------[Atlanta]

Cubs (Feldman) @ Cincinatti (Arroyo) ------Feldman comes into this game in hopes of righting the Cubs 'ship'. The Cubs have won Feldman's L3 starts and the Cub's actually have one of the better starting rotations in the NL. The problem, their bullpen stinks and they rank last in errors committed. If it wasn't for those two factors, we would be all over this dog like 'white on rice'. Arroyo is 2-2 L5 starts vs. the Cubs but none of those starts have been superb. His 17:9 k/BB ratio and 36 hits in 32 IP supports the fact he might be in position to give up 4 or 5 runs tonight. The fact that Arroyo has a 4.78 ERA in night games adds to the fact that the Reds might be in trouble tonight. They do have a 16-6 home record and are 17-5 vs. the Cubs since the beginning of last year. So you might say the odds are against the Cubs?? Well, we like dogs and we like Feldman to flex his muscles and have a 3 run lead by the time they insert his relief...Cubs win, 5-3.------[Cubs]

Cleveland ( Masterson) @ Boston ( Lackey)------2 pitchers headed in opposite directions. Masterson is 3-0, 1.17 his L3 starts while Lackey is 1-3,5.64 his L4 starts. As soon as we laid off the Indians last night, they paid off putting 12 runs on the board off 16 hits. We did have it OVER which was good after the Indians put up 6 in the 6th. Swisher is expected to come off the DL today for the Indians and that will be another bat to add to the lineup. The Indians are getting the money again and we are taking them,...again.-----[Cleveland]

NY Yankees (Phelps) @ Tampa Bay (Hernandez)-----This opening game series is featuring 2 bottom of the rotation starters. Hernandez comes into this game with a 1-5 career record with a 7.16 ERA when facing the Bronx. As a matter of fact, his L4 starts vs. the Yankees have resulted in many runs. (11-7,8-0, 8-2, and 10-5 all in favor of the Yankees. Sure, he doesn't have to face A-Rod or Teixeira, but Granderson and Cano are 28-for 62 combined career vs. Hernandez and you can almost count on the Yankees to get 5+ across the plate in this one. What they don't score against Hernandez, the Rays bullpen is usually good for a couple of runs also. Phelps is more of a set-up pitcher but has been filling in well in the starting rotation. He has been sharp his L2 starts but his durability remains to be seen. The Rays are 26-15-5 OVER this year and someway, somehow, we see this one going ------[Over]

LA Angles (Vargas-L) @ Kansas City (Mendoza)------Here they come, sizzling on a plate.....The Angels have now won Vargas's L4 starts and he has a 2.20 ERA in those starts as well. The Angels have won 5 straight now and the Royals are 1-6 their L7 games. He will be matched up against Mendoza who is 1-1,6.95 ERA over his L4 starts. Vargas is 5-0 his L5 starts vs. the Royals and has only allowed 8 runs in 33 innings of work while Mr. Mendoza is sporting a 8.04 ERA career over 15 innings pitched vs. the Angels. We are riding the Halo's until they lose . The bats are heated up and this is a good pitching matchup for them to continue with the streak. -----[LA Angels]

Miami (Koehler) @ Chicago White Sox (Danks-L)-----What a lucky guy! Danks is making his season debut from shoulder surgery and gets the Bad News Bears. Danks made 4 rehab starts and this will be more like a 5th rehab start. The Marlins have now dropped 9 of their L11 and are only avg. 3 RPG on the road . They have gotten shutout in 2 of their L5 games as well. We are not going to jump out there with Danks though as his 15:13 K/BB ratio in 22 innings in his rehab starts is a red flag. So are we can send out the Marlins to you? No sir, we just can't do it. Koehler has been good in his 2 starts TY and his holding lefties to a .222 avg. and righties to a .167 avg. The possibility is there that if the Marlins hit the Lottery and get 4 runs across the plate, then they can win this one. But obviously that is the Big Question??? You are on your own in this one.....sorry----[Pass]

Oakland (Milone-L) @ Houston (Bedard-L)------These two pitchers saw each other on 4/15 as Bedard didn't make it out the first inning as he issued 4 walks and 2 hits while only recording 1 out. What a nightmare. Oakland rolled the Astros that night 11-2 and swept the series outscoring the Astros 22-10. As a matter of fact, the A's have now beaten Houston 9 straight dating back to 2007 and 6 of those have come this year and have outscored Houston 45-19 on the year. We aren't exactly rocket scientist but it seems the Astros are dead and stinkin tonight. Milone has not been sharp this year though and that has us a little worried. He tends to have one good start, then a bad one. In 9 starts TY, Milone has alternated good starts/ bad starts. ( 2 ER, 4ER, 2ER, 4ER,0ER, 4ER, 0ER, 5ER, and 1ER) Uh-oh. Do we see a trend developing? In what was looking like an easy win for the visitors, Milone looks to be due for a rough outing and the OVER is looking more than appetizing. Oakland is 30-18 OVER TY and Houston is 29-16-2 OVER and the OVER is 9-1 L10 meetings between these teams. -------3*[Over]

Pittsburgh (Burnett) @ Milwaukee (Estrada)-----The Pirates just back door swept the Brewers last week and are hot,hot, hot. Interestingly enough, the one win Milwaukee won was vs. Burnett (5-1). The Brewers also had Estrada on the mound as he threw 7 strong innings of 3 hit ball. The Pirates have now lost Burnett's L3 starts and A.J. is 0-3 his L4 starts vs. the Brew Crew. The problem is this : the Pirates are only giving Burnett 2.6 runs of support a game. We hate to depend on a leaky pitching staff, but the Brewers owe the Pirates some 'payback', and until the Buc's decide to give Burnett some run support, we will lean on this homedog. Estrada is 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA career vs. the Pirates and even though the Brewers have been losing, they have been hitting the ball and this will = wins sooner than later. Segura, Aoki, Gomez, and Braun are hitting over .320 this year and the Brewers are near the top in the NL in Batting average and slugging %. ------"A"[Brew Crew]

San Diego (Stiluts-L) @ Arizona (McCarthy)------We saw the Padres take 2 of 3 from the Dbacks earlier this month. Of course the game they won was when Mr. Corbin was on the mound. Tonight they will call on McCarthy who we still have questions about. The guy just hasn't been right since getting hit in the head last year off a line drive. McCarthy has looked better his last two starts allowing 0 ER, but that was vs. Philly and Miami. I think I might be able to toss a gem against those two teams. The bottom line is McCarthy has given up 71 hits in 57 innings and opponents are hitting .300+ against him from both sides of the plate. To make it worse his home ERA is still 5.68 accompanied with a 5.44 ERA in night games. And who decided to install him a favorite? Stults is in better form currently and the Padres have the better bats in our opinion and we will gladly take the +130 or the 1.5 in this one. ------"B+"[San Diego]

Saint Louis (Lynn) @ LA Dodgers (Capuano-L)------Luckily for the Dodgers, the Cardinals can't hit lefties and their .223 avg. supports that. They rank in the bottom tier in all hitting categories vs. lefties this year and we have been cashing checks going against them in these spots. Tonight, they are a road favorite and you already know we like dogs, especially homedogs. Too bad Capuano has had issues vs. the Cardinals in the past though and that is keeping us from making this a TOP RATED play. Capuano has tossed 2 quality starts since coming off the DL and the Dodgers players and coaches are on the Hot Seat. When jobs are on the line , people tend to step up and make amends. That is what position the Dodgers are in. Either win or get out of L.A. If you can't hit the ball, warm up the pine because the Dodgers need to win, and win now. They are playing the team with the best record in Baseball but the Cardinals did lose their opening game series vs. the Padres Monday night. Look for a repeat. -----[LA Dodgers]

Texas (Grimm) @ Seattle (Saunders-L)-----Seattle is GLAD to be back home from a road trip that was worse than worse. They are riding a 7 game losing streak and as crazy as it sounds, Saunders should be able to save the day tonight. This guy has a 0.94 ERA in 4 home starts TY including a 3 hit , 0 ER, 7 inning outing on 4/13 vs. the Rangers. Texas still won the game 3-1, but that was with Ogando on the mound. Grimm for Texas has been reliable having made 2 appearances TY vs. the M's only giving up 4 runs in 10 IP, but his L2 road starts have been bad. He has given up 10 runs in 10 innings off 15 hits and 5 walks. Overall, the youngster is more comfortable pitching at home and we don't see him as a worthy road favorite. The UNDER is 5-1 TY when these teams have met and this looks like another good possibility. With 2b Kinsler on the DL, Saunders will be able to breathe easier. He is 10-for-30 career with 4 HR and 8 ribbies career. Advantage: HOMEDOG-----"A"[Seattle]

Colorado (Chatwood) @ San Fran (Lincecum)-------The OVER is 5-1 over these pitcher's L3 starts combined and the Rockies have won Chatwood's L3 starts, including a 10-2 win on 5/18 when Lincecum was the opposing pitcher. In 2 starts TY, Lincecum has gotten rocked for 12 runs off 11 hits and 6 walks in 11 innings. Lincecum has a 56:25 K/BB ratio this year and we don't trust him AT ALL. You can almost count on 2 wild pitches, 3 walks, and who knows what else damage will result after that. Chatwood's record is a bit deceiving as is his 2.55 ERA. He has given up 21 hits in 17 IP along with a 12:7 K/BB ratio. There is only one way to go in this one, and that is the ----[Over]

MLB PICKS and ANALYSIS for 5/24/13

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