| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.36 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 40 | 0.00 | +2.34 |
| Season to Date | 69 | 71 | 0.00 | +15.16 |
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All plays are for 2 units
TORONTO +101 over Baltimore
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Orioles are struggling right now with just two wins in their past nine games. They blew a 4-0 lead here last night after the bullpen was rocked for eight runs after the fifth inning. Baltimore pitchers walked eight batters in the game, suggesting the Blue Jays are being patient at the plate and Toronto is going to make O's pitchers throw strikes again here. That’s a problem for Chris Tillman. After going 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA in the second half of 2012, much was expected of Tillman this year. With three wins and a decent ERA, so far, so good, right? Wrong. Regression is forthcoming. While Tillman’s ERA looks good, it’s being helped by an unsustainable hit rate of 21% and a just as unsustainable 86% strand rate. Part of Tillman’s 2012 success was improved control but he hasn’t been able to sustain those gains this year. While it looks like Tillman has picked up where he left off last year, he’s been fortunate in all areas. Those extra walks haven’t come back to haunt him but they will at some point. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Blue Jays have scored seven runs or more at home in five of their past seven games and they scored 10 or more in four of those five games. Toronto has also won six of its past seven at the Rogers Center. Sean Nolin makes his major league debut here. Nolin was one of the best, if not the best pitcher in the Blue Jays organization in 2012. He dominated the FSL in 15 starts and then destroyed the Eastern League for three starts. His peripherals were great, averaging 9.6 strikeouts per 9 innings, while only walking 2.4. To go along with his dominant swing and miss stuff, he also didn’t allow the ball to leave the park in 2012, happening just 7 times in A+, and never in AA. If there were any concerns about how Nolin would take to the mid-levels of the minors, he answered all of those questions in 2012 with his unbelievable performance. The tall 22-year-old southpaw features a below average fastball, sitting in the high 80’s and low 90’s but that isn’t much of a concern because he’s a lefty, he can change speeds and because he can touch 94 MPH if needed. He also features an above average change-up and two breaking pitches, a curveball and a slider that gives him a good mix. Perhaps Nolin’s best attribute is that he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters and his big frame is very intimidating coming off of the mound. Nolin has won back-to-back starts at AA-New Hampshire with a 13/4 K/BB over 12 scoreless innings. Nolin may be in a bit over his head here but there’s a chance he’s ready to make this big leap and as a pooch at home with the Jays bats behind him, he offers up some pretty nice value. Additionally, Toronto’s bullpen has been fantastic and will be right behind this southpaw should he run into some trouble. Wrong side favored. [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]LOS ANGELES +108 over St. Louis
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Both teams from L.A got off to rough starts but like the Angels, the Dodgers are a club that could go on a nice run and they’re showing signs of it now. The Dodgers took two of three in Milwaukee, a tough place to win at, and they probably should have swept after leaving 14 men on base in the middle game of that series. The next night, the Dodgers pounded out 12 hits en route to a 9-2 win. Looking from the top of the Dodgers order on down, we see Carl Crawford batting .302, Mark Ellis batting .322, Adrian Gonzalez hitting .309, Matt Kemp up to .270, Scott Van Slyke batting .300 and Nick Punto hitting .330. That's serious. Chris Capuano’s 4.84 overall ERA and 8.03 home ERA is likely going to have many people backing the Cardinals but this small line should raise some flags for Cardinals backers. Capuano has made just six starts this season and his poor surface stats are a direct result of back-to-back disasters on April 16 and May 6. Since then, Capuano has thrown back-to-back quality starts against Miami and Atlanta in which he pitched 13.2 innings combined and allowed just 10 hits and two earned runs. Capuano also struck out 12 over that span while issuing just one walk. Remember, Chris Capuano was lights out in the first half of last year when he was healthy with a 9-3 record and 2.69 ERA, He’s healthy again and he’s undervalued.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Lance Lynn is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA and that adds to the Cardinals appeal. Lynn’s strikeout rate is at an elite level with 57 K’s in 55 frames but there are signs that he may not be 100%. In his last start against Milwaukee, Lynn struck out just three batters and walked two. Over the past month covering four starts, Lynn’s profile is trending the wrong way. His groundouts have decreased from 48% to 40%, his line drives have increased from 19% to 23% and his fly-balls have increased from 33% to 37%. In two career starts at Dodger Stadium, Lynn allowed 14 hits in 12 innings for a BAA of .304. All signs point to Lynn laboring and it could be a health issue after throwing a lot of pitches and innings in the first seven weeks of the season. The Dodgers are on our radar this weekend in what could be a pivotal series that turns their season around.[/FONT]
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L.A. Angels -1 +108 over KANSAS CITY
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We missed an opportunity with the Angels last night, as they went into K.C. as a 20 cent dog and emerged with a 5-4 victory. It was the Angels fifth straight win and it’s not likely to stop here. The Halos are seeing beach balls right now. They’ve scored 42 runs over that five-game winning streak while hitting .323 over that span. They’ve also gone yard nine times in those five games. Jason Vargas is not high on our list of quality pitchers in the majors but this isn’t about backing him. This is about backing the red-hot Angels against a pitcher they should demolish and against a Royals squad that is going bad.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
The Royals have one win in seven games and that lone victory occurred against the Astros. The Angels are just 4-9 against southpaws and Vargas is one of those. Luis Mendoza beat out Bruce Chen for the Royals’ fifth starter spot. Mendoza had totaled only 20 IP in the majors from 2009-2011 before starting 25 games for the Royals in 2012 and his skill set doesn’t give much cause for excitement. For the most part, Mendoza had sub-par command in the minors and it’s carried over to this level. His strikeout rate remains low so any variations to hit % or strand % will impact his bottom line. In two starts at Kaufman Stadium this season against the Blue Jays and Rays, Mendoza was tagged for 14 hits and 13 runs in a combined 9.2 frames. In those two home starts, Mendoza struck out five while walking four and his BAA was .350. While Mendoza has a rotation slot for now, there’s not a lot to indicate that he will hold it all year and that K.C bullpen has blown quite a few leads over the past couple of weeks after the fifth inning. With that, we’ll ride the hot bats of the Angels.
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