Stacked. That is the one word that sums up this UFC PPV card, 12 fights and really something to be excited about. Been thinking about this card all week, thinking of the best way to attack this card and make a win strategy. What I see is a large number of "capable" underdogs which to me means the odds are high on a lot of fights that i see as competitive. Not really the type of card i want being that i'm on an incredible(for the wrong reasons) 6-fight losing streak. Still, i have to be true to myself and play the same picks as if i was coming in with a 6-fight win streak. So with that in mind, here's my 4 official plays:
Gray Maynard -190 vs TJ Grant +170 - been there from the beginning with Gray as one of my favorites, felt he got screwed in the Draw with Edgar and had to accept him getting stopped in the rematch. I can sum up what i've seen from Gray like this, he was a wrestler and was one of the bigger lightweights but he fell in love with boxing and thus began struggling to win fights(4 of his last 5 wins are by split decision) Problem is, NOW he's maybe a medium sized lightweight and instead of facing the older crop of fighters he's now got to face the new breed of lightweight, the ones that are bigger than he is(like Grant) and ones that are more well rounded. Maynard's last finish was in 2007, that's significant because his evolution as a fighter is still underway and at 34 years of age, coming off a big injury i don't think he will ever be a top contender again. The biggest key to the fight is i see the lightweight division has somewhat passed Maynard by while he's been away(hurt) and the fact that his game hasn't been evolving in his last fight with Guida and his 2 fights with Edgar all of which accounts for the last 2.5 years. Grant has found a home at lightweight(4-0) and brings huge momentum and after a strong win will be talking title shot.
3 units TJ Grant +170
Donald Cerrone -300 vs KJ Noons +250 - interesting fight and probably the one i'm most excited to see. KJ has had his problems lately, 1-4(all decision losses) in his last 5 as he tries to add in kicks and takedowns to his boxing base. I do see this fight as being the best possible matchup in a long time for Noons, a guy who will stand right in front of him and trade shots. I'm going to fade Cerrone at this point, i sense a decline for him after his 1st round loss to Pettis. His defense is being exposed since his fight with Diaz, he was able to beat the smaller Stephens but he nearly got finished against Melvin and was finished by Pettis. I think Cerrone is slowing down and you add that to Noons getting his big chance in the ufc and a perfect matchup i will call an upset.
2 units KJ Noons +250
Junior Dos Santos -500 vs Mark Hunt +400 - really only playing this based on the value on a guy who has a lot of standup experience. Dos Santos has a big enough ego, where he will believe he can win this fight standing and will look to prove that no matter what happens in the fight. Hunt hasn't shown any stamina issues and he's only gotta worry about boxing from Junior. I really feel like Dos Santos cockiness will be his downfall, i've noticed since he became champion a different attitude and i have an easy time making a pick against him. Hunt although 39, gets a kickboxing match and the holy grail is on the other side of this fight. Dreams can come true, lets hope it happens for the Super Samoan.
1 unit Mark Hunt +400
Cain Velasquez -800 vs Antonio Silva +600 - "Bigfoot" has my attention with his 2 upset wins and he deserves a small play from me here. Getting a rematch helps Silva so much and the way he's been focused in his recent fights is really scary. He's bigger than Cain and if he can absorb some early punishment, its possible he can turn the fight in the later rounds. There have been times when i watch Silva fight, i think he's going to fold but he actually gets stronger as the fight goes on so it should be interesting should the fight go to round 3. Cain is methodical and patient so there's a good chance they feel each other out for a round or 2. I realize this might be a "throw away" but their heavyweights and the gap has got to be smaller than the line would indicate.
1 unit Antonio Silva +600
"opinions" on other fights;
Dennis Bermudez -280 vs Max Holloway +240 - feel like this fight is closer to even so i'm going to go with Holloway who will win the standup battle, Bermudez not going to hold Holloway down(i don't think) and i'm going to gamble that the majority of this fight stays standing. Wrestling advantage does keep me off of this as an official play, but i'll be cheering for Max .
Rick Story -150 vs Mike Pyle - honestly i don't know how he does it? Pyle has been winning and to me winning ugly as he's looked shaky only to come out on top in recent fights. Story in my mind will dominate this fight but with Pyle finding ways to win i won't make it official. Still, anything other than a dominant win for Story will "surprise" me.
Glover Texeira -300 vs James Te Huna +250 - love the confidence of Te Huna but his tendency to get "caught" in fights is a potential disaster against the heavy-handed Texeira. I would go for the upset but i think Texiera has all the advantages standing and on the ground so there's just a small chance of an upset. Texieira will win but i'm not that comfortable with the pick.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
Gray Maynard -190 vs TJ Grant +170 - been there from the beginning with Gray as one of my favorites, felt he got screwed in the Draw with Edgar and had to accept him getting stopped in the rematch. I can sum up what i've seen from Gray like this, he was a wrestler and was one of the bigger lightweights but he fell in love with boxing and thus began struggling to win fights(4 of his last 5 wins are by split decision) Problem is, NOW he's maybe a medium sized lightweight and instead of facing the older crop of fighters he's now got to face the new breed of lightweight, the ones that are bigger than he is(like Grant) and ones that are more well rounded. Maynard's last finish was in 2007, that's significant because his evolution as a fighter is still underway and at 34 years of age, coming off a big injury i don't think he will ever be a top contender again. The biggest key to the fight is i see the lightweight division has somewhat passed Maynard by while he's been away(hurt) and the fact that his game hasn't been evolving in his last fight with Guida and his 2 fights with Edgar all of which accounts for the last 2.5 years. Grant has found a home at lightweight(4-0) and brings huge momentum and after a strong win will be talking title shot.
3 units TJ Grant +170
Donald Cerrone -300 vs KJ Noons +250 - interesting fight and probably the one i'm most excited to see. KJ has had his problems lately, 1-4(all decision losses) in his last 5 as he tries to add in kicks and takedowns to his boxing base. I do see this fight as being the best possible matchup in a long time for Noons, a guy who will stand right in front of him and trade shots. I'm going to fade Cerrone at this point, i sense a decline for him after his 1st round loss to Pettis. His defense is being exposed since his fight with Diaz, he was able to beat the smaller Stephens but he nearly got finished against Melvin and was finished by Pettis. I think Cerrone is slowing down and you add that to Noons getting his big chance in the ufc and a perfect matchup i will call an upset.
2 units KJ Noons +250
Junior Dos Santos -500 vs Mark Hunt +400 - really only playing this based on the value on a guy who has a lot of standup experience. Dos Santos has a big enough ego, where he will believe he can win this fight standing and will look to prove that no matter what happens in the fight. Hunt hasn't shown any stamina issues and he's only gotta worry about boxing from Junior. I really feel like Dos Santos cockiness will be his downfall, i've noticed since he became champion a different attitude and i have an easy time making a pick against him. Hunt although 39, gets a kickboxing match and the holy grail is on the other side of this fight. Dreams can come true, lets hope it happens for the Super Samoan.
1 unit Mark Hunt +400
Cain Velasquez -800 vs Antonio Silva +600 - "Bigfoot" has my attention with his 2 upset wins and he deserves a small play from me here. Getting a rematch helps Silva so much and the way he's been focused in his recent fights is really scary. He's bigger than Cain and if he can absorb some early punishment, its possible he can turn the fight in the later rounds. There have been times when i watch Silva fight, i think he's going to fold but he actually gets stronger as the fight goes on so it should be interesting should the fight go to round 3. Cain is methodical and patient so there's a good chance they feel each other out for a round or 2. I realize this might be a "throw away" but their heavyweights and the gap has got to be smaller than the line would indicate.
1 unit Antonio Silva +600
"opinions" on other fights;
Dennis Bermudez -280 vs Max Holloway +240 - feel like this fight is closer to even so i'm going to go with Holloway who will win the standup battle, Bermudez not going to hold Holloway down(i don't think) and i'm going to gamble that the majority of this fight stays standing. Wrestling advantage does keep me off of this as an official play, but i'll be cheering for Max .
Rick Story -150 vs Mike Pyle - honestly i don't know how he does it? Pyle has been winning and to me winning ugly as he's looked shaky only to come out on top in recent fights. Story in my mind will dominate this fight but with Pyle finding ways to win i won't make it official. Still, anything other than a dominant win for Story will "surprise" me.
Glover Texeira -300 vs James Te Huna +250 - love the confidence of Te Huna but his tendency to get "caught" in fights is a potential disaster against the heavy-handed Texeira. I would go for the upset but i think Texiera has all the advantages standing and on the ground so there's just a small chance of an upset. Texieira will win but i'm not that comfortable with the pick.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
