[h=1]Betting Velasquez vs Silva 2[/h][h=3]Finding value in the betting lines for heavyweight-laden card[/h]By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
If you're not buying the rematch between Cain Velasquez and Antonio Silva as a compelling fight, you're not alone; neither are bettors. After a completely dominant performance by Velasquez in their first bout, bettors are anticipating a similar outcome in the sequel, as Velasquez is a giant minus-800 favorite in UFC 160's main event.
However, despite the underwhelming title fight, the rest of the card promises to deliver much more excitement, as former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos will be taking on heavy-handed veteran Mark Hunt, and rising light heavyweight star Glover Teixeira will be taking on fellow up-and-comer James Te-Huna. We break down the odds and statistics behind the fights Saturday night to see where the value lies for UFC 160.
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<CENTER>[h=3]Cain Velasquez (minus-800) vs. Antonio Silva (plus-550)[/h]</CENTER>
Saying that Velasquez annihilated Silva in their first fight still wouldn't do it justice. If there is one statistic that represents exactly how one-sided that fight was, look no further than Silva's lone significant strike -- that's one (1) -- landed in the massacre. With Velasquez barely touched in his initial conquest of Silva, the real question is whether we should be expecting anything different in the rematch.
<OFFER>As bettors have agreed, the answer is a resounding no. Velasquez is one of the most statistically impressive fighters in mixed martial arts, most notably holding the UFC record for strikes landed per minute (SLpM) at 6.21 over 13 recorded fights.
In addition to punishing Silva with strikes, Velasquez was able to use his wrestling to take Silva to the ground and impose his will from top position. Possessing a staggeringly high 6.31 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, the former two-time NCAA champion should have no problem putting Silva on his back again, as Silva only successfully defends 63 percent of opponents' takedown attempts.
The one caveat, however, and reason why the already high minus-800 line would not be a great value bet, is the fact that it's a heavyweight fight and Silva has found success in the past by catching technically superior fighters off-guard with his power. Against both the streaking Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem, Silva achieved impressive knockout victories despite being a heavy underdog against both (plus-236 against Overeem and plus-200 against Browne). While it would be incredibly surprising if Silva was able to catch the nearly flawless Velasquez, it still isn't completely out of the question, as Velasquez has fallen prey to heavy hands before, notably in his single career knockout loss to Junior dos Santos.
And while Silva doesn't have even close to the boxing ability of dos Santos, he does have the KO power, having ended 13 of 18 victories in this manner. Given the slight chance of a surprise knockout, consider the minus-800 odds about right in what should be another impressive victory on the part of one of the sport's pound-for-pound best, Velasquez.
Insider's value bet: Stay away
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</CENTER><CENTER>[h=3]Junior dos Santos (minus-400) vs. Mark Hunt (plus-325)[/h]</CENTER>
Few fighters have made as impressive of a career comeback as Hunt. After a string of disappointing losses in the Pride organization, the former K-1 kickboxing champion has won four out of his five fights since joining the UFC, with the past two involving knockout wins over some of the heavyweight division's top talent.
Against dos Santos, however, Hunt will be taking on an opponent with a skill level that he hasn't yet faced in the UFC and who has a knack for avoiding the big power of his opponents while simultaneously winning exchanges.
Though Hunt's single-punch knockout ability is nothing to take lightly, dos Santos has never been finished by knockout in his 17-fight career. Even in his first UFC loss (to Velasquez), dos Santos still was able to hang on for all five rounds despite taking a considerable amount of damage. And dos Santos also has faced his fair share of heavy-handed opponents, including Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin.
So with dos Santos not likely to be KO'd, utilizing his defensive boxing skills at a strikes-defended rate of 58 percent, he should be able to outstrike Hunt by using his above-average offensive boxing talents. Averaging 5.51 SLpM, dos Santos should have no problem imposing his will against Hunt, who lands a lower 3.58 SLpM. Add to this a five-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage for dos Santos. Hunt also does not possess any significant ground skills, so it's likely that he'll have to knock out dos Santos to avoid becoming a punching bag for three rounds.
Lastly, the 29-year-old dos Santos is nine years younger than Hunt, who took this fight on short notice. Given the circumstances, dos Santos should easily take a decision and earn another shot at the belt. Consider him, even as a minus-400 favorite, a more than solid value.
Insider's value bet: Junior dos Santos
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</CENTER><CENTER>[h=3]Glover Teixeira (minus-280) vs. James Te-Huna (plus-240)[/h]</CENTER>
In three UFC fights, Teixeira has become one of the most impressive newcomers to the UFC. Te-Huna has been making some noise himself since entering the organization, but he has not faced a fighter of Teixeira's caliber in his career.
Most impressive is Teixeira's 18-fight winning streak, which dates back to 2005. And Teixeira's been beating opponents in decisive fashion, with 60 percent of his wins coming by KO/TKO. With a giant 6.66 SLpM since joining the UFC and a 68 percent striking defense rate, Teixeira has been imposing his will in dangerous fashion while taking almost no damage in the process.
While Te-Huna also possesses an impressive 67 percent striking defense rate himself, he's not even close to the offensive efficiency of Teixeira, landing just 3.25 SLpM in comparison.
Amazingly, Teixeira has yet to be taken down since joining the UFC.
His ground abilities are the most underestimated aspect of his game; he carries a high 4.18 takedowns per 15 minutes with an incredibly efficient 80 percent takedown success rate. He is a BJJ black belt, and given he's won five fights by submission, Teixeira can close out the fight in a multitude of ways. And the majority of Te-Huna's losses have come by submission. While it wouldn't be surprising if Teixeira finished Te-Huna by KO/TKO, he likely could add another submission win to his record as well. Thus, with a clear advantage in almost every category, consider Teixeira as only a minus-280 favorite a terrific deal.
Insider's value bet: Glover Teixeira
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</CENTER><CENTER>[h=3]Dennis Bermudez (minus-265) vs. Max Holloway (plus-225)[/h]</CENTER>
Though Holloway enters UFC 160 on a three-fight winning streak, he is being cast as a sizable underdog against Bermudez. And given that Bermudez is coming off a similar three-fight winning streak, one might expect Bermudez to hold a serious statistical advantage over Holloway to justify the odds. But the statistics show Holloway is the one who holds a serious advantage in many key areas.
In striking, Holloway and Bermudez are similar, with Holloway landing a very active 6.44 SLpM to Bermudez's 5.44. But Holloway does so while avoiding a high amount of damage, successfully defending 73 percent of strikes compared to Bermudez, who nearly absorbs half of opponent's strikes. With this advantage, it's no secret that Holloway will try to keep this one standing, especially since Holloway's ground game is nothing to speak of.
This is also likely to be the case because Holloway possesses a significant height advantage, standing 5-foot-11, extremely tall for a featherweight. With Bermudez measuring 5-foot-6 with a four-inch reach disadvantage, Holloway should be able to control this fight on the feet without much trouble from his smaller opponent.
Thus, Bermudez likely will try to use his wrestling ability to gain an advantage, having taken down opponents 3.79 times per 15 minutes in the past. Against Holloway, however, this will be a major challenge, as Holloway has used his size to successfully defend 89 percent of takedowns in his previous four fights. While it's true that Bermudez will be the most effective wrestler Holloway has faced thus far, Holloway should still have a decent chance of staying off his back. Consider Holloway as a great bet if he can keep the fight standing.
Insider's value bet: Max Holloway
FightMetric is the official statistics provider for the UFC.
ESPN INSIDER
If you're not buying the rematch between Cain Velasquez and Antonio Silva as a compelling fight, you're not alone; neither are bettors. After a completely dominant performance by Velasquez in their first bout, bettors are anticipating a similar outcome in the sequel, as Velasquez is a giant minus-800 favorite in UFC 160's main event.
However, despite the underwhelming title fight, the rest of the card promises to deliver much more excitement, as former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos will be taking on heavy-handed veteran Mark Hunt, and rising light heavyweight star Glover Teixeira will be taking on fellow up-and-comer James Te-Huna. We break down the odds and statistics behind the fights Saturday night to see where the value lies for UFC 160.
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</CENTER>
<CENTER>[h=3]Cain Velasquez (minus-800) vs. Antonio Silva (plus-550)[/h]</CENTER>
Saying that Velasquez annihilated Silva in their first fight still wouldn't do it justice. If there is one statistic that represents exactly how one-sided that fight was, look no further than Silva's lone significant strike -- that's one (1) -- landed in the massacre. With Velasquez barely touched in his initial conquest of Silva, the real question is whether we should be expecting anything different in the rematch.
<OFFER>As bettors have agreed, the answer is a resounding no. Velasquez is one of the most statistically impressive fighters in mixed martial arts, most notably holding the UFC record for strikes landed per minute (SLpM) at 6.21 over 13 recorded fights.
In addition to punishing Silva with strikes, Velasquez was able to use his wrestling to take Silva to the ground and impose his will from top position. Possessing a staggeringly high 6.31 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, the former two-time NCAA champion should have no problem putting Silva on his back again, as Silva only successfully defends 63 percent of opponents' takedown attempts.
The one caveat, however, and reason why the already high minus-800 line would not be a great value bet, is the fact that it's a heavyweight fight and Silva has found success in the past by catching technically superior fighters off-guard with his power. Against both the streaking Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem, Silva achieved impressive knockout victories despite being a heavy underdog against both (plus-236 against Overeem and plus-200 against Browne). While it would be incredibly surprising if Silva was able to catch the nearly flawless Velasquez, it still isn't completely out of the question, as Velasquez has fallen prey to heavy hands before, notably in his single career knockout loss to Junior dos Santos.
And while Silva doesn't have even close to the boxing ability of dos Santos, he does have the KO power, having ended 13 of 18 victories in this manner. Given the slight chance of a surprise knockout, consider the minus-800 odds about right in what should be another impressive victory on the part of one of the sport's pound-for-pound best, Velasquez.
Insider's value bet: Stay away
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</CENTER><CENTER>[h=3]Junior dos Santos (minus-400) vs. Mark Hunt (plus-325)[/h]</CENTER>
Few fighters have made as impressive of a career comeback as Hunt. After a string of disappointing losses in the Pride organization, the former K-1 kickboxing champion has won four out of his five fights since joining the UFC, with the past two involving knockout wins over some of the heavyweight division's top talent.
Against dos Santos, however, Hunt will be taking on an opponent with a skill level that he hasn't yet faced in the UFC and who has a knack for avoiding the big power of his opponents while simultaneously winning exchanges.
Though Hunt's single-punch knockout ability is nothing to take lightly, dos Santos has never been finished by knockout in his 17-fight career. Even in his first UFC loss (to Velasquez), dos Santos still was able to hang on for all five rounds despite taking a considerable amount of damage. And dos Santos also has faced his fair share of heavy-handed opponents, including Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin.
So with dos Santos not likely to be KO'd, utilizing his defensive boxing skills at a strikes-defended rate of 58 percent, he should be able to outstrike Hunt by using his above-average offensive boxing talents. Averaging 5.51 SLpM, dos Santos should have no problem imposing his will against Hunt, who lands a lower 3.58 SLpM. Add to this a five-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage for dos Santos. Hunt also does not possess any significant ground skills, so it's likely that he'll have to knock out dos Santos to avoid becoming a punching bag for three rounds.
Lastly, the 29-year-old dos Santos is nine years younger than Hunt, who took this fight on short notice. Given the circumstances, dos Santos should easily take a decision and earn another shot at the belt. Consider him, even as a minus-400 favorite, a more than solid value.
Insider's value bet: Junior dos Santos
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</CENTER><CENTER>[h=3]Glover Teixeira (minus-280) vs. James Te-Huna (plus-240)[/h]</CENTER>
In three UFC fights, Teixeira has become one of the most impressive newcomers to the UFC. Te-Huna has been making some noise himself since entering the organization, but he has not faced a fighter of Teixeira's caliber in his career.
Most impressive is Teixeira's 18-fight winning streak, which dates back to 2005. And Teixeira's been beating opponents in decisive fashion, with 60 percent of his wins coming by KO/TKO. With a giant 6.66 SLpM since joining the UFC and a 68 percent striking defense rate, Teixeira has been imposing his will in dangerous fashion while taking almost no damage in the process.
While Te-Huna also possesses an impressive 67 percent striking defense rate himself, he's not even close to the offensive efficiency of Teixeira, landing just 3.25 SLpM in comparison.
Amazingly, Teixeira has yet to be taken down since joining the UFC.
His ground abilities are the most underestimated aspect of his game; he carries a high 4.18 takedowns per 15 minutes with an incredibly efficient 80 percent takedown success rate. He is a BJJ black belt, and given he's won five fights by submission, Teixeira can close out the fight in a multitude of ways. And the majority of Te-Huna's losses have come by submission. While it wouldn't be surprising if Teixeira finished Te-Huna by KO/TKO, he likely could add another submission win to his record as well. Thus, with a clear advantage in almost every category, consider Teixeira as only a minus-280 favorite a terrific deal.
Insider's value bet: Glover Teixeira
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</CENTER><CENTER>[h=3]Dennis Bermudez (minus-265) vs. Max Holloway (plus-225)[/h]</CENTER>
Though Holloway enters UFC 160 on a three-fight winning streak, he is being cast as a sizable underdog against Bermudez. And given that Bermudez is coming off a similar three-fight winning streak, one might expect Bermudez to hold a serious statistical advantage over Holloway to justify the odds. But the statistics show Holloway is the one who holds a serious advantage in many key areas.
In striking, Holloway and Bermudez are similar, with Holloway landing a very active 6.44 SLpM to Bermudez's 5.44. But Holloway does so while avoiding a high amount of damage, successfully defending 73 percent of strikes compared to Bermudez, who nearly absorbs half of opponent's strikes. With this advantage, it's no secret that Holloway will try to keep this one standing, especially since Holloway's ground game is nothing to speak of.
This is also likely to be the case because Holloway possesses a significant height advantage, standing 5-foot-11, extremely tall for a featherweight. With Bermudez measuring 5-foot-6 with a four-inch reach disadvantage, Holloway should be able to control this fight on the feet without much trouble from his smaller opponent.
Thus, Bermudez likely will try to use his wrestling ability to gain an advantage, having taken down opponents 3.79 times per 15 minutes in the past. Against Holloway, however, this will be a major challenge, as Holloway has used his size to successfully defend 89 percent of takedowns in his previous four fights. While it's true that Bermudez will be the most effective wrestler Holloway has faced thus far, Holloway should still have a decent chance of staying off his back. Consider Holloway as a great bet if he can keep the fight standing.
Insider's value bet: Max Holloway
FightMetric is the official statistics provider for the UFC.
