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Chicago +166 over CINCINNATI (5 innings)

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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. T[/FONT][/FONT]he price here dictates the play, as Matt Garza is too good and too focused to ignore this take-back on him in the first five frames. We mentioned last time out that Garza, just off the DL, might be the most sought after free-agent pitcher on the market in the off-season. That means cash and plenty of it if he can prove that his pre-injury performance over the past two years wasn’t a fluke. With millions and millions of dollars staring Garza in the face, all he did was go out and one-hit the Pirates in in his season debut in five innings. Garza will be on a strict pitch count again here and thus, the five inning wager. There is not a pitcher in baseball with more at stake than Garza and he’s very aware of his circumstances. He’s focused, determined and oh yeah, he’s also brilliant when he’s on his game. Garza’s solid groundball rate has increased each of the last three years from 40% in 2010 to 46% in 2011 and to 48% last year. Against Pittsburgh in his first start, 70% of batted balls in play were hit on the ground. That level is unsustainable but it is an indication of his dedication to improving his already good skill set. [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Johnny Cueto avoided the DL and nagging injuries last year to notch his first 200+ IP campaign, as season-long control gains and second half strikeout rate spike fueled a career year. He held much of his groundball advance from 2011, while making one-time gopheritis problems seem like long ago. Entering a prime age, there was little to criticize about Cueto’s performance a year ago. This year may tell a different story. Cueto has been out since leaving in the fifth inning of his third start April 13 with a strained back muscle, later aggravated by oblique soreness. In his first game back against the Mets, he struck out eight batters in five frames but he also walked four and gave up three runs. Cueto has also been tagged for three jacks in 3½ games and his line-drive rate this year is 25% and that was right in line with the exact same line-drive rate he had in his first game back against New York. His groundball rate in that game was just 33%. The road back and the timing for both these starters is very similar. The difference is that Garza was much sharper in his return and while the Reds are certainly the superior squad here, the Cubbies have a very good chance to be leading after five innings.[/FONT]

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St. Louis +126 over LOS ANGELES
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Clayton Kershaw needs no introductions. Kershaw has been one of the best and most consistent (85% dominant starts the past two seasons) pitchers in the game. Even with three 200-IP seasons, workload is not an issue, as pitch counts were well managed and he’s off to another great start this season. Clayton Kershaw always gives the Dodgers a great chance of winning. However, he has just five wins in 10 starts because in order to notch wins your offense has to score some runs and the bullpen has to hold up. Both those things could work against the Dodgers here and anytime we can take back a price like this on the Cardinals with Shelby Miller going, you can pencil us in and we make no exception here.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Miller also has five wins in one less start than Kershaw. He has 62 K’s in 57 frames with just 15 walks issued. Miller has a 1.74 ERA to go along with a 0.94 WHIP. Miller has fulfilled his ace potential so far, both on the surface and beneath it and the best news is that current Dodgers have just four career AB’s against him, meaning most of them have never faced him before. By contrast, the Cardinals have seen plenty of Kershaw and current Cardinals have 29 hits in 118 career AB’s against Kershaw for a combined BA of .246. This one has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel that is very likely going to be decided in the late innings or by the pens. That alone makes the Cardinals worthy of a bet and even if Kershaw throws a gem, Miller is very capable of matching it. Definite overlay.[/FONT]

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L.A. Angels -1 +106 over KANSAS CITY
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[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]It’s very difficult to like the Royals chances here. K.C. has dropped four in a row and eight of its last nine games with only win over that span occurring against the Astros. The Royals have been outscored in the first three games of this series by a count of 17-6 and things don’t figure to get better here. Wade Davis has thrown two quality starts in nine attempts this season and he couldn’t have picked a worse time to face the hot-hitting Halos. Davis has trouble throwing strikes, he has a disturbing 1.95 WHIP and a just as disturbing 5.91 ERA. Davis’s skills are getting worse too. 15% of his batted balls hit in the air have gone yard. His profile is even worse than that with 38%/31%/31% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates. Davis’s confidence is shot and now the Royals have to rely on him to snap an ugly losing streak. That’s unlikely.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Meanwhile, the Angels have reeled off seven in a row and have scored five runs or more in every game. Over that span, the Angels have outscored the opposition 54-18 and they allowed nine runs in one game. Since moving into the rotation covering three starts, Jerome Williams has allowed just four earned runs in 20.2 innings. Williams comes in with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.53 ERA and has the full skills support of those numbers. In 46 innings overall, Williams has allowed just 38 hits while striking out 29 and walking just 12. His groundball rate his last game was 65% and his overall groundball rate is a solid 48%. The Royals haven’t been able to hit these Angels starters all weekend while the Halos are teeing off on K.C.’s pitching. Hot versus cold gets the call again. [/FONT]
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Baltimore -½ +116 over TORONTO (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. How do you belt out 30 hits over two days and go 0-2? Just ask the Blue Jays, who have seen their bats get hot but against Baltimore, the Jays have not been able to throw the knockout punch against two horrible pitchers over the past two days and as a result, they lost Friday and Saturday. The Blue Jays have also been falling behind early in the game and even in Thursday’s win in the opener of this series, the Jays were down 4-0 early. Baltimore scored nine times in the first three innings on Friday and five runs in the first three innings yesterday. The O’s have now pounded out 112 hits (.301) over their past 10 games to lead the majors in that category. 22 of those hits have left the park and that, too, is tops in the majors. The O’s are obviously seeing the ball well at this venue and have another great chance of putting up some early crooked numbers against Chad Jenkins. Jenkins is just coming off a shoulder injury, which has limited him to only one start this season at New Hampshire (AA) and one start with the Blue Jays. He saw his first big league call-up in '12 and fared reasonably well with a 4.50 ERA in 32 innings. He has a durable 6'4" 230-pound frame with good arm action and mindset on the mound. His fastball and slider are his best pitches, while both his curveball and change-up need further development. Jenkins’ pitching line against Boston last week looks decent on paper but luck played a big role, as many balls were hit hard (27% line-drive rate) but they were hit right at people. He still allowed seven hits in five innings and struck out just two batters. Jenkins is very hittable because his repertoire features two slightly above average pitches and at this level, that’s not good enough. Against these hot-hitting Orioles, Jenkins will play a price.
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At age 29, the perseverance Miguel Gonzalez has showed to get to the big leagues is commendable and he has demonstrated that he has enough talent to stick in the Oriole rotation. Gonzalez just came off the 15-day DL (blister) and subsequently five-hit the Yankees in seven frames and it took just 92 pitches to get there. Over his past two starts covering 13 innings, Gonzalez has struck out 10 and walked none. Gonzalez is throwing better than he was last season. His xERA over his past three starts is 3.00. Gonzalez’s line-drive rate is just 16% and his groundball rate is 49%. There is not a pitcher in baseball with more heart and determination than this right-hander and if you ever get a chance you should read his story here. All of Gonzalez’s skills are trending strongly in the right direction and he’s grossly undervalued here in this pitching mismatch. It’s for that reason we will play the Orioles in the first five innings as oppose to spotting a tag in the full game.
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Libatards Suck
Handicapper
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Sep 21, 2004
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Good Luck today
 

New member
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Mar 19, 2013
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the only thing with Baltimore - is that their record at toronto has been good the last few games - but overall they are heavy net losers... I'm looking for a lower scoring game today and toronto to edge them out.

I'm on the Angels and the over - Wade Davis absolutely sucks - they scored 5 runs against Santana - Who knows what they will do against Davis... 8/9 ?

BOL Sherwood.
 

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