| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.96 |
| Last 30 Days | 38 | 40 | 0.00 | +7.00 |
| Season to Date | 76 | 75 | 0.00 | +22.78 |
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</tbody>
Atlanta -109 over TORONTO
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Braves are a small price today because Tim Hudson comes in with a 4.98 ERA. However, Hudson’s high ERA is a direct result of a freakishly low 62% strand rate. What’s so odd about that strand rate is that Hudson remains one of the best groundball pitchers in the game with an elite rate of 55%. He also has 44 K’s in 56 frames while issuing just 15 walks. Hudson’s season so far has been nothing but pure bad luck but his xERA is 3,63 and his xERA over his last five starts is just 3.19. Hudson is pitching better than he has been in three years. His skills are at an elite level but the surface stats say otherwise and that provides us with one of the best “buy low” opportunities of the day.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Analyzing Mark Buehrle is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what to expect: an overachieving xERA, low strikeouts and decent command. However, his first season in the AL East has been far afield from his usual work. After a career of astounding strand % stability, Buehrle's getting a taste of volatility, and his ERA has suffered. The move from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park to Rogers Centre (+24% RHB HR) has knocked his hr/9 out of whack. There are more red flags as well. The bump in Buehrle’s control and the dip in his groundball below 40% have also helped to increase his ERA. Because of his low strikeout rate, Buehrle's made a career out of pin-point accuracy and forcing ground balls, so seeing them both erode simultaneously is troublesome. Buehrle's slow start has some bad luck attached to it (61% strand rate) but the poor luck has been exacerbated by hitter-friendly surroundings and new, more formidable opponents in the AL East. That said, his upside is still limited once regression hits so it might be time to find a new favorite movie. Buehrle’s 5.91 ERA will regress some but his xERA is near 5 and it’s not likely to get better. Play: Atlanta -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Chicago (NL) -101 over CHICAGO (AL) (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The White Sox have won nine of 12 and they just swept the Marlins but there are concerns. Against the Marlins this past weekend, the South Side scored 11 lousy runs in the three-game set after facing starters, Tim Koehler, Ricky Nolasco and Alex Sanabia followed by a shaky pen. The White Sox remain dead last in the AL in several offensive categories including runs scored, team batting average and drawn walks. Things don’t figure to get better for the White here against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija broke out in the second half of 2012, posting a 2.58 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has continued those stats and skills so far in 2013. In 10 starts, Samardzija has a 3.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, as well as these fantastic skills: 72 K’s in 64 IP, a 50% groundball rate and a low 17 % line-drive rate. He is one of only three starters who have struck out at least one batter per inning while posting a groundball rate of 50% or higher. In addition, he has an average fastball velocity of 95 mph and is throwing a cutter more often, giving him four pitches that he throws at least 15% of the time. He has an elite strikeout rate against both LH and RH bats. Samardzija is one of the best pitchers in baseball but his 2-6 W/L record has him grossly undervalued here. If the Cubbies can score one time in the first five innings, this ticket is cashable.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jose Quintana has a nifty 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after 52 innings. His skills have been good too: 39 K’s 15 walks and a consistent 42% GB%. Quintana’s skills support a 3.50 ERA but whether he can reach it over the long haul is still up for debate because the sample size is too small and his history says beware. Quintana has wrung the most out of a series of just-above-tolerance stuff. He slipped off that tight rope in second half of last year and while he does have some value, Quintana has only four pure quality starts in nine attempts this season. Being young and right-brained, Quintana will get plenty of opportunity to grow but as a favorite pitching for an offensively challenged squad, he’s not that appealing. That applies here against Jeff Samardzija and so we’ll attempt to eliminate the pens and play the Cubbies in 5. Play: Chicago Cubs -101 in first 5 innings (Risking 2.02 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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SEATTLE -½ +120 over San Diego (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. We’re going to play this one in the first five innings because it’s all about fading Clayton Richard. Richard hasn’t pitched since May 4 because of an intestinal virus that he picked up. Richard lost 12 pounds during that time and while he’s feeling better, he’s likely going to need a start or two to get back to being the below average pitcher he’s always been. It’s hard to tell how much health issues are responsible for Richard's 8.54/5.99 ERA/xERA combo. But a 5.07 career ERA on the road says he's always been a PETCO product and the park's new hitter-friendly dimensions may have just caught up with him. When the workers showed up to move the fences in at Petco, they discovered that this guy shackled himself to the fence somewhere around left-center field. Richard has allowed 37 hits in 26 frames this season. He’s also walked 17 while striking out just 13. Current Mariners have 25 hits in 82 career AB’s (.305) against Richard and being off three weeks surely can’t help him. The Mariners broke an ugly eight game losing streak yesterday with a win over the Rangers in 13 innings and one win does wonders to a teams’ psyche.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Aaron Harang’s 8.58 ERA is almost identical to Richard’s 8.54 ERA. However, there is a huge difference between the two. Harang has 27 K’s in 28 innings while walking just five batters. Harang’s unlucky 47% strand rate has done in him this season but his 4.30 xERA is more than four runs lower than his actual ERA. That’s significant and it strongly suggests that Harang is more than due for some better luck and he may have found the perfect opponent here. Harang went 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in six starts against the Padres last season while with the Los Angeles Dodgers and this park plays similar to that of Dodger Stadium. With that, we’ll step in and play the M’s in the first five innings because Clayton Richard might not make it past the third. Play: Seattle -½ +120 in first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
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[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Braves are a small price today because Tim Hudson comes in with a 4.98 ERA. However, Hudson’s high ERA is a direct result of a freakishly low 62% strand rate. What’s so odd about that strand rate is that Hudson remains one of the best groundball pitchers in the game with an elite rate of 55%. He also has 44 K’s in 56 frames while issuing just 15 walks. Hudson’s season so far has been nothing but pure bad luck but his xERA is 3,63 and his xERA over his last five starts is just 3.19. Hudson is pitching better than he has been in three years. His skills are at an elite level but the surface stats say otherwise and that provides us with one of the best “buy low” opportunities of the day.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Analyzing Mark Buehrle is like re-watching a favorite movie; you know exactly what to expect: an overachieving xERA, low strikeouts and decent command. However, his first season in the AL East has been far afield from his usual work. After a career of astounding strand % stability, Buehrle's getting a taste of volatility, and his ERA has suffered. The move from pitcher-friendly Marlins Park to Rogers Centre (+24% RHB HR) has knocked his hr/9 out of whack. There are more red flags as well. The bump in Buehrle’s control and the dip in his groundball below 40% have also helped to increase his ERA. Because of his low strikeout rate, Buehrle's made a career out of pin-point accuracy and forcing ground balls, so seeing them both erode simultaneously is troublesome. Buehrle's slow start has some bad luck attached to it (61% strand rate) but the poor luck has been exacerbated by hitter-friendly surroundings and new, more formidable opponents in the AL East. That said, his upside is still limited once regression hits so it might be time to find a new favorite movie. Buehrle’s 5.91 ERA will regress some but his xERA is near 5 and it’s not likely to get better. Play: Atlanta -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
Chicago (NL) -101 over CHICAGO (AL) (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The White Sox have won nine of 12 and they just swept the Marlins but there are concerns. Against the Marlins this past weekend, the South Side scored 11 lousy runs in the three-game set after facing starters, Tim Koehler, Ricky Nolasco and Alex Sanabia followed by a shaky pen. The White Sox remain dead last in the AL in several offensive categories including runs scored, team batting average and drawn walks. Things don’t figure to get better for the White here against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija broke out in the second half of 2012, posting a 2.58 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He has continued those stats and skills so far in 2013. In 10 starts, Samardzija has a 3.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, as well as these fantastic skills: 72 K’s in 64 IP, a 50% groundball rate and a low 17 % line-drive rate. He is one of only three starters who have struck out at least one batter per inning while posting a groundball rate of 50% or higher. In addition, he has an average fastball velocity of 95 mph and is throwing a cutter more often, giving him four pitches that he throws at least 15% of the time. He has an elite strikeout rate against both LH and RH bats. Samardzija is one of the best pitchers in baseball but his 2-6 W/L record has him grossly undervalued here. If the Cubbies can score one time in the first five innings, this ticket is cashable.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jose Quintana has a nifty 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after 52 innings. His skills have been good too: 39 K’s 15 walks and a consistent 42% GB%. Quintana’s skills support a 3.50 ERA but whether he can reach it over the long haul is still up for debate because the sample size is too small and his history says beware. Quintana has wrung the most out of a series of just-above-tolerance stuff. He slipped off that tight rope in second half of last year and while he does have some value, Quintana has only four pure quality starts in nine attempts this season. Being young and right-brained, Quintana will get plenty of opportunity to grow but as a favorite pitching for an offensively challenged squad, he’s not that appealing. That applies here against Jeff Samardzija and so we’ll attempt to eliminate the pens and play the Cubbies in 5. Play: Chicago Cubs -101 in first 5 innings (Risking 2.02 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]
SEATTLE -½ +120 over San Diego (5 innings)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. We’re going to play this one in the first five innings because it’s all about fading Clayton Richard. Richard hasn’t pitched since May 4 because of an intestinal virus that he picked up. Richard lost 12 pounds during that time and while he’s feeling better, he’s likely going to need a start or two to get back to being the below average pitcher he’s always been. It’s hard to tell how much health issues are responsible for Richard's 8.54/5.99 ERA/xERA combo. But a 5.07 career ERA on the road says he's always been a PETCO product and the park's new hitter-friendly dimensions may have just caught up with him. When the workers showed up to move the fences in at Petco, they discovered that this guy shackled himself to the fence somewhere around left-center field. Richard has allowed 37 hits in 26 frames this season. He’s also walked 17 while striking out just 13. Current Mariners have 25 hits in 82 career AB’s (.305) against Richard and being off three weeks surely can’t help him. The Mariners broke an ugly eight game losing streak yesterday with a win over the Rangers in 13 innings and one win does wonders to a teams’ psyche.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Aaron Harang’s 8.58 ERA is almost identical to Richard’s 8.54 ERA. However, there is a huge difference between the two. Harang has 27 K’s in 28 innings while walking just five batters. Harang’s unlucky 47% strand rate has done in him this season but his 4.30 xERA is more than four runs lower than his actual ERA. That’s significant and it strongly suggests that Harang is more than due for some better luck and he may have found the perfect opponent here. Harang went 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in six starts against the Padres last season while with the Los Angeles Dodgers and this park plays similar to that of Dodger Stadium. With that, we’ll step in and play the M’s in the first five innings because Clayton Richard might not make it past the third. Play: Seattle -½ +120 in first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
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