Service Plays Tuesday 5/28/13

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Heat at Pacers: What bettors need to know

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (2, 184.5)

Heat lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The Indiana Pacers have had their invincibility at home pierced and will now have to work to avoid heading back out onto the road down 3-1 in the Eastern Conference finals. The Pacers will try to even things up at 2-2 when they host the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Tuesday. The Heat found a way to match Indiana’s intensity on the inside en route to a dominating Game 3 performance, and LeBron James got help from the supporting cast.

James made an effort to post up Paul George early and often in Game 3, which opened up baseline jumpers for Udonis Haslem and cleared the perimeter for other shooters. “I made a conscious effort to get down in the post tonight, to put pressure on their defense” James said. “The coaching staff wanted me to be down there tonight, and my teammates allowed me to do that.” The Heat ended up outscoring the Pacers 56-32 in the paint, an area Indiana had controlled in the first two games. The Pacers, who led the NBA in field goal percentage defense in the regular season, allowed Miami to shoot 62.8 percent in the first half to fall into a big hole.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE HEAT: James displayed an ability to spin toward the baseline in the post and throw left-handed bank shots off the glass, a move Indiana’s George had no chance of stopping. Haslem had totaled three points in the first two games of the series but got confident early and ended up with 17 points on 8-of-9 shooting. “He’s the heartbeat of this team,” James said of Haslem, who serves as co-captain of the squad along with Dwyane Wade. Miami also did a much better job of hanging onto the ball in Game 3. The Heat committed only one turnover while piling up a franchise playoff-record 70 points in the first half, and finished the game with only five miscues to set another franchise postseason record.

ABOUT THE PACERS: The 114-96 setback matched the largest home defeat of the season for Indiana, which had won its six previous home playoff games. The Pacers were able to match the Heat’s scoring pace early but began to fall off in the second quarter without stops and turnovers to get them extra possessions. Indiana generally does not use double teams on defense but Roy Hibbert suggested James’ play might inspire them to switch tactics. “(James) was in the post doing a lot of work, and I think we have to do a better job of helping (George) out,” Hibbert said. “LeBron can’t get five or six dribbles to make a post move.” The lack of a defensive effort was what Pacers coach Frank Vogel dwelled on after the game. “If you’re not perfect guarding them,” Vogel said, “they’ll do what they did to us tonight.”

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Heat F Chris Andersen is 15-for-15 from the field over the last four games.

2. Indiana G Lance Stephenson had a series-high 20 rebounds through the first two games but pulled down only one in Game 3.

3. Miami is 5-0 on the road in the postseason and has not fallen away from home since March 27 at Chicago.

Sharks at Kings: What bettors need to know

San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings (-152, 4.5)

Best-of-seven series tied 3-3.

In order to advance in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the sixth-seeded San Jose Sharks will have to do something that has yet to be accomplished in their Western Conference second-round series with the Los Angeles Kings - post a victory on the road. The Pacific Division rivals meet for Game 7 at Staples Center on Tuesday, with a trip to the conference final at stake. The home team has captured each of the first six contests, with San Jose recording three 2-1 triumph at HP Pavilion and fifth-seeded Los Angeles winning all three games in its building - two via shutout.

The Sharks were in excellent position to register a road win in Game 2, rallying from a two-goal deficit to take a 3-2 lead before allowing Kings captain Dustin Brown to score the tying goal during a 5-on-3 power play with 1:43 remaining in the third period. Trevor Lewis tallied with a one-man advantage 22 seconds later to give Los Angeles a 2-0 series lead. Logan Couture netted the game-winning goal in each of the next two contests in San Jose - including one in overtime - to even the matchup, and the clubs traded home triumphs to force the decisive seventh game. In addition to attempting to be the first to record a road win in the series, the Sharks are looking to accomplish another first - notch a victory at Staples Center. The Kings, who are attempting to become the first team to win back-to-back championships since the 1997-98 Detroit Red Wings, are a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs and have won 13 straight on home ice since falling to Vancouver on March 23.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, NBCSN, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE SHARKS: Adam Burish returned to the lineup after missing the first five games of the series with a hand injury and registered a team-high four shots on goal while winning all four of his faceoffs in 9:41 of ice time. "It was fun to get back in, it was fun to contribute," the right wing said. "Obviously, it was fun to get a big win at home. It was loud. The fans were great and it was a fun one to be a part of." The fact the home team has held serve in the series is not lost on coach Todd McLellan. "It's followed a script," he said. "It's time for us to get there and change this story." Center Scott Gomez has the most Game 7 experience among the Sharks, appearing in nine. Gomez's teams have won six of those contests. San Jose is 0-9 in series in which it lost the first two games.

ABOUT THE KINGS: Mike Richards believes playing at home gives Los Angeles the edge in Game 7. "We're a confident, comfortable team at home," the center said. "The fans are loud and behind us. It should be an exciting game." Defenseman Rob Scuderi is not surprised the series has unfolded in the manner in which it has. "Every game has been close," he said. "I'm sure it's not a shock it's come to a Game 7. I'm sure both teams didn't want it to go this far." Los Angeles has allowed fewer than four goals in 32 consecutive playoff games. Center Jordan Nolan was in the lineup Sunday after being a healthy scratch for the previous three games. Nolan delivered four hits in 7:28 of ice time.

TRENDS:

* Sharks are 0-5 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Kings are 6-1 in their last seven games playing on a single day of rest.

OVERTIME

1. The winner will take on either Detroit or the Chicago Blackhawks in the conference final. Whomever is victorious Tuesday will have home-ice advantage should the seventh-seeded Red Wings advance.

2. Los Angeles is participating in its first Game 7 since 2002, when it lost to Colorado in the first round. The Kings' last seventh game at home was in the opening round in 1989, when they defeated defending champion Edmonton.

3. San Jose is 5-2 in Game 7s, with its most recent seventh contest being a 3-2 victory over Detroit at home on May 12, 2011. The Kings own a 3-4 record in Game 7s.

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

Boston’s Big Apple dreams

Boston and Philadelphia have a long and heated sports history but nothing holds a candle to Boston vs. New York, more specifically Red Sox versus Yankees. The two AL East powers are scheduled to clash for the first time since a season-opening, three-game set beginning Friday in New York.

The Red Sox, who are locked with the Yankees atop the division, have a four-game interleague set against the Phillies before making the trip to the Big Apple. Philadelphia is a shell of its former self, at 24-26 heading into Monday, but could hold value as Boston’s series with New York draws closer. The BoSox were 1-5 in the final game of a series before playing the Yankees last season.

Letdown spot

Pens, Bruins' long layoff

The Pittsburgh Penguins are enjoying their extended break after eliminating the Ottawa Senators in the second round of the NHL playoffs last Friday. After a compacted regular season and the grind of postseason hockey, the Pens can lick their wounds for at least four days before opening the Eastern Conference final versus the Boston Bruins.

Things aren’t settled in the West and Pittsburgh and Boston could be sitting around for a while before the puck drops. Boston knocked off the New York Rangers in five games Saturday and also gets some much-need downtime after a seven-game, first-round series with Toronto. Both teams could be a little rusty when the East championship finally gets underway, giving value to the under.

Schedule spot

Shock to the system

The Tulsa Shock are hoping to avoid another season in the WNBA basement and have high hopes after adding college standout Skylar Diggins. The Notre Dame product was shaky in her debut, scoring 15 points on 4-of-12 shooting while coughing the ball up five times in a 98-81 loss at Atlanta Saturday. The Shock failed to cover as 8.5-point road underdogs.

Tulsa hosts Washington Monday, then hits the highway for four straight road games starting Friday. The Shock visit New York and Chicago on the weekend, then go west to Seattle and Los Angeles the next week. Tulsa was one of the worst road teams in the league last season, going 3-14 SU (9-7-1 ATS), and isn't getting those beefy road spreads like last year.

Chicago Syndicate Afternoon Play - Over 9 Braves/Blue Jays

Indiana Looks to Even Series With Heat Tuesday

Eastern Conference Finals
Game 4 - Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -2, Total: 185

The Pacers will look to even up their Eastern Conference Finals series with a win at home over the Heat on Tuesday night.

Miami responded to a Game 2 home loss with a 114-96 blowout victory over Indiana at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Sunday night. This was a lopsided game from the opening tip, as every single member of the Heat starting lineup scored at least 14 points on the night, as they outshot their opponent 54.5% FG to 39.7% FG. They also made 24-of-28 free throws and committed just five turnovers. Sunday marked the Pacers' first home loss this postseason (6-1 SU and ATS), but Miami will like its chances again on the road Game 4. The Heat are a strong 34-12 SU and 29-17 ATS (63%) on the road this season, including a perfect 5-0 mark (SU and ATS) on the road, winning these games by 13, 11, 10, 23 and 18 points. It also helps to have SF LeBron James, who has been unbelievable so far in this postseason, averaging 25.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 6.8 APG in 40.7 MPG. However, Indiana is not prone to losing skids, going 24-13 ATS (65%) after an SU loss this season.

Miami looked sluggish in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but it came out and played their best game of the entire playoffs in Game 3. SF LeBron James led Miami in scoring on the night with 22 points (8-of-17 FG) and a +22 rating in 41 minutes, but added just four rebounds and three assists. SG Dwyane Wade finished the contest with 18 points (8-of-14 FG), eight assists, four rebounds and two blocks in 35 minutes. The third member of the All-Star trio, PF Chris Bosh, played just 24 minutes but although he scored 15 points (6-of-10 FG, 2-of-3 threes), Bosh pulled down just three rebounds and posted a minus-3 rating. An unexpected source of offense, PF Udonis Haslem, also helped this team establish a big lead, scoring a playoff-high 17 points (8-of-9 FG) while also grabbing seven rebounds in just 23 minutes of play. PG Mario Chalmers also had his best scoring game of the postseason with 14 points on 4-of-6 FG and 6-of-7 free throws. PF Chris Andersen kept up his unbelievable playoff run by pulling down a postseason-high nine boards, while making all four of his shots. This was his fourth straight perfect shooting night, as he's made 15-of-15 field-goal attempts during this impressive streak. For the entire postseason, Andersen is 35-for-41 from the floor (85.4%). If the Heat continue to get production like this from the entire roster, it will be nearly impossible to beat them.

After stealing Game 2 in Miami, the Pacers came out flat defensively in Game 3 in what was an embarrassing effort on that side of the ball for Frank Vogel’s squad. The Heat were getting open looks whenever they pleased and Indiana had trouble adjusting. Offensively, the Pacers' starting lineup fared just fine. PF David West had a team-high 21 points (8-of-16 FG) and 10 rebounds in 36 minutes of play, displaying the same combination of force and soft touch he has all throughout this series, where he's averaged 20.0 PPG on 50% shooting. C Roy Hibbert has also been doing the heavy lifting for the Pacers, averaging 22.7 PPG and 12.0 RPG in 39.0 MPG in this series. Hibbert ripped down 17 rebounds (7 offensive), blocked two shots and got to the free throw line 15 times on Sunday (connecting on 12), finishing with 20 points despite a woeful 4-of-12 shooting and minus-16 rating. SF Paul George had a dreadful game with a minus-17 rating. He was struggling to find his shot from inside the paint as he connected on just 1-of-6 shots from inside the arc (2-of-4 threes), grabbed a mere two rebounds for the second straight game, and committed five turnovers. The one positive was George's team-best eight assists. PG George Hill scored 19 points (5-of-10 FG, 3-of-3 threes, 6-of-7 FT) in 37 minutes for the Pacers, but he must do a better job of setting up his teammates as he had only two assists in the game. SG Lance Stephenson must also find his shot in this series as he really struggled, scoring only seven points (2-of-10 FG) in 34 minutes in Game 3. For the series, Stephenson has made just 25% of his shots (8-for-32 FG), including an unexplainable 4-of-18 (22%) on two-point field goal tries.

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Maholm is 3-1, 5.01 in his last four starts.
-- de la Rosa is 4-0, 2.31 in his last four starts. Lyles is 1-0, 2.45 in his last couple starts.
-- Pirates are 5-0 when Gomez starts (2-0, 3.63). Detroit won four of last five Porcello starts (2-0, 4.20).
-- Kuroda is 5-2, 2.17 in his last eight starts. Harvey is 1-1, 2.35 in his last five.

-- Reds won last six Latos starts (4-0, 3.69). Indians won McAllister's last five outings (3-0, 2.73).
-- Phillies won Lee's last four starts (3-0, 1.16).
-- Lyons won his first MLB start, allowing one run in seven IP.

-- Sale is 4-0, 1.18 in his last five starts.
-- Parker is 1-1, 3.10 in his last three starts (1-5, 7.60 in previous seven).
-- Ryu is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Morrow has a 6.63 RA in his last six starts.
-- Karns is 4-2, 4.60 in nine starts in AA Eastern League this year; this is his MLB debut- he's never pitched above AA. Gausman allowed four runs in five IP in losing his MLB debut.

-- Dempster is 0-3, 8.69 in his last four starts; he's thrown 212 pitches in just 7.2 IP over his last two starts.
-- Slowey is 0-3, 8.53 in his last three starts. Hellickson has a 6.57 RA in his last six outings.
-- Santana is 0-3, 4.67 in his last four starts.

-- Diamond is 0-2, 8.62 in his last three starts. Figaro was 2-4, 6.54 for Detroit in '09-'10, making four starts; he has a 3.46 ERA in 15 relief appearances so far this season.
-- Jackson is 1-4, 7.66 in his last five starts.
-- Seattle lost last four Maurer starts (0-3, 8.50). Volquez is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.
-- Blanton is 1-4, 5.34 in five road starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Maholm 1-10; Morrow 3-9
-- de laRosa 3-10; Lyles 3-5
-- Gomez 2-5; Porcello 2-8
-- Gausman 0-1; Karns 0-0
-- Kuroda 5-10; Harvey 2-10

-- McAllister 2-9; Latos 4-10 (3 of last 3)
-- Lee 0-10; Dempster 3-10
-- Slowey 3-10; Hellickson 7-10
-- Lyons 0-1; Santana 5-10

-- Diamond 4-8 (3 of last 3); Figaro 0-0
-- Jackson 5-10; Sale 5-9
-- Kickham 0-0; Parker 3-10
-- Volquez 3-10 (0 of last 6); Maurer 4-9
-- Blanton 5-10 (1 of last 6); Ryu 3-10

Totals
-- Over is 9-2-1 in Baltimore's last twelve games.
-- Six of last nine Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-3-2 in last twelve Cleveland games.
-- Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Kansas City games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last eight Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 14 Tampa Bay home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Seattle games went over the total.

-- Over is 15-4-1 in Atlanta's last twenty road games.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve Philly road games.
-- Eight of Mets' last eleven games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-0-3 in White Sox' last six games.
-- Five of last six Dodger games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Orioles won five of their last seven games.
-- Pirates won 10 of their last 13 games. Detroit won six of its last seven.
-- Reds won 13 of their last 16 games.
-- Cardinals won 19 of their last 25 games.
-- A's won nine of their last ten games.
-- Atlanta won eight of its last ten games. Toronto won eight of its last eleven home games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- White Sox won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Angels won eight of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Nationals lost six of their last nine games.
-- Indians lost six of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost eleven of its last thirteen games. Brewers lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Royals lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- Giants lost their last four road games, allowing 29 runs.
-- Astros lost three of their last four games. Colorado is 6-11 in its last 17 road games.
-- Tampa Bay lost four of its last seven games. Marlins lost 16 of their last 19.
-- Padres lost five of their last six games. Mariners lost eight of last ten.
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games.
-- Mets lost five of their last seven games; Bronx lost four of last six.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers are 2-8 in game following their last ten wins.

Umpires
-- Atl-Tor-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Hirschbeck games.
-- Col-Hst-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine McClelland games.
-- Pitt-Det-- Underdogs won five of last six Vanover games.
-- Blt-Wsh-- Favorites won eight of last ten Hallion games.
-- NY-NY-- Home team won five of last six O'Nora games.

-- Cle-Cin-- Five of last six Fairchild games stayed under total.
-- Phil-Bos-- Favorites won last four Tichenor games.
-- Mia-TB-- Seven of last eight Wendelstedt games went over.
-- StL-KC-- Underdogs are 13-6 in last nineteen West games.

-- Min-Mil-- Home team is 20-8 in last 28 Eddings games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Road team won seven of last ten TWelke games, with last three staying under the total.
-- SF-A's-- Four of last five Davis games stayed under the total.
-- SD-Sea-- Six of last eight TBarrett games stayed under total.
-- LA-LA-- Over is 30-8-4 in last 42 Emmel games.

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers - TWINS TO WIN (+111)
Listed Pitchers: Diamond vs Figaro
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.22 units)

Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres -108 over Seattle Mariners
(System Record: 27-4, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 27-31-1

JOE WIZ Bonus Play

Under 9 runs Seattle and San Diego

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/28/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 851-403 (.679)
ATS: 666-619 (.518)
ATS Vary Units: 1662-1576 (.513)
Over/Under: 661-624 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 916-841 (.521)

Eastern Conference Finals
Game #4
Miami 94, INDIANA 93

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/28/13 Prediction

Season: 314-194 (.618)

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #7
San Jose vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]NY Yankees at NY Mets[/h] The Yankees look to build on their 6-1 record in Hiroki Kuroda's last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Yankees are the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

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Our Bonus Plays are 1037-772 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

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Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Tuesday

Braves -120

Hondo

Cardinals
Phillies

[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h] [h=2]Miami at Indiana[/h] The Heat look to follow up their 114-96 win in Game 3 and take advantage of an Indiana team that is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games following a double-digit home loss. Miami is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2). Here are all of today's picks.