2 Tuesday w/analysis + lowdown on two 1st time starters

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KANSAS CITY -106 over St. Louis
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]1st 5 innings. The Royals have lost six in a row and nine of its past 10 games but they are often leading after five innings so that’s the way we’ll play this one. Ervin Santana is posting the best skills he has shown since 2008. Santana has struck out 52 batters while issuing just nine walks in 62 innings. His strikeout rate surge is supported by a 10.6% swinging strike rate and there is more to like about his profile. Santana has a 52% groundball rate over the past month, covering five starts and over that same span he has delivered a nifty 17% line-drive rate. At home, Santana’s ERA is at an elite 2.68 and many of these Cardinals hitters have never seen him before. This wager however, is more about fading a Cardinals rookie that was pressed into emergency status as a starter when Jaime Garcia was lost to a season-ending injury last week.
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Tyler Lyons threw a 7-inning, four-hit, one-run gem against the Padres in his major-league debut but one start does not make a career and his minor-league numbers and skills leave plenty to be desired. Lyons was originally drafted in 2009 by the Yankees in the 10th round, (315th overall) but they chose not to sign him. In 2010 he was again drafted in the 10th round (289th) by the Cardinals. Lyons comes at hitters with a three pitch mix, a fastball in the 87-90 mph range, a below average change up, and a plus curveball, his go-to pitch. Lyons has always showed plus control of his pitches while spotting them well. While he is not a strikeout pitcher, his curve has helped him in the lower levels but with only one plus offering it will be hard for him to translate that to this level. While he prevents hitters from reaching by way of the walk, the amount of hits he allows (9.4 h/9 career) has driven his WHIP to a below average 1.30. Lyons does not have the strongest of arsenals and his career 4.30 ERA in the minors will attest to that. In eight starts for Memphis (AAA) this season, Lyons was tagged for 56 hits and 23 earned runs in 46 innings for an ERA of 4.47. Lyons is not and may never be major-league ready and these Royals are more than capable of putting up a crooked number against him. Play: KC -106 in 1st five innings (Risking 2.12 units to win 2). [/FONT]

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MILWAUKEE -1 +122 over Minnesota
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]There’s a reason the Twins recently lost 10 games in a row and have the second worst record in the AL thanks to the Astros move to the junior circuit. Minnesota’s starter’s maybe the worst group of starters in the history of this league. Each pitcher that takes the hill is worse than the last guy and Scott Diamond is no different. Diamond has put together a few good games this year (4 quality starts in 8 attempts) but that was at the start of the year when hitter’s weren’t too familiar with him. These major league batters study pitchers like a law student studies their bar exam and now the league has caught up to this imposter. Diamond has thrown three disaster starts in a row in which he’s been tagged for 26 hits and 15 runs over his past 15.2 innings. In 45 frames overall, he has struck out just 21 batters. He’s only walked 10 batters and yet he still can’t get batters out. Diamond’s poor control in previous seasons allowed hitters to wait on pitches to hit so any control regression will wreak more havoc on his ERA. Diamond's skill set lends itself to polarizing results in that either he maintains control and gets lucky or a few more balls find holes (or the fences) and he's back in the minors by June. If Scott Diamond were on any other team, he would be a mop-up man because he has horrible skills and when he does well, it’s pure luck.
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The Milwaukee Brewers are 2-9 at home against southpaws and they have the major’s worst mark against left-handed starters with a W/L record of 4-17. That’s actually an incredible stat when you consider that the Brewers hit lefties (.262) better than righties (.255). It strongly suggests that a correction in their record against lefties is forthcoming. Alfredo Figaro is another long reliever who has flashed rotation-worthy skills with 21 K’s and just six walks in 26 frames in relief this year. Figaro also has a rock-solid 51% groundball rate. He has an elite 95.1 mph average fastball velocity. Figaro was one of Detroit's top 10 prospects several seasons ago but several injuries sidetracked him and he spent the previous two seasons in Japan. Figaro has paid his dues and if he can maintain his ground ball tilt, he could stick in a starting role because there are opportunities waiting in the Milwaukee rotation. Figaro may not shine here but we’re not counting on him to, as this one is all about fading Scott Diamond. Play: Milwaukee -1 +122 (Risking 2 units). [/FONT]

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[FONT=arial !important]Our Pick[/FONT]
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MLB Call-ups
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Michael Kickham (LHP -SF)
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A recurring blister issue contributed to an underwhelming 2011 full-season debut, but Michael Kickham re-established himself as one of the most talented arms in the Giants system following an aggressive assignment to Double-A. The recipient of an above-slot $410,000 bonus as a draft-eligible sophomore, Kickham had stretches when he dominated Eastern League hitters and ranked second in the circuit in strikeouts (137) and opponent average (.219). Kickham’s raw stuff easily is the best among lefthanders in the system. He works off a two-seam fastball that he throws in the low 90s with sinking and tailing action. His slider and changeup both arrive in the low 80s and are solid offerings. He’ll also mix in a curveball that has its moments. His ability to vary his breaking ball reminds Giants coaches of Jeremy Affeldt and has them convinced Kickham could move quickly. The key for him is throwing strikes. He can be effectively wild but will need to be more efficient as he progresses. He has trouble hiding his displeasure when he doesn’t get calls behind the plate, but he pitched with more maturity as the season went on.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Minor League Stats: 58 GS: 19-24 (W/L) 318.IP-293 hits allowed, 136/297 BB/K 4.33 ERA 1.48 WHIP[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
2013 Stats (Fresno AAA) 10 GS: 3-4 (W/L) 54 IP- 58 hits allowed, 22/54 BB/K 4.33 ERA 1.48 WHIP[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Current role: #5 Starter - Potential: #3 starter.
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Nathan Karns (RHP - Washington)
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Nathan Karns has flashed power stuff since his high school days in Texas but his command held him back in college at North Carolina State and Texas Tech. He appeared to turn the corner in 2009 in the Texas Collegiate League, where he ranked as the top prospect before signing for $225,000 as a 12th-round pick, but he tore the labrum in his shoulder shortly afterward and didn’t pitch again until 2011. He came out of nowhere to lead the minors in opponent average (.174) in his 2012 full-season debut. Karns throws a heavy fastball at 92-94 mph, topping out at 96. He's always been able to get hitters to chase his downer curveball, a low-80s hammer with depth and finish and he improved his ability to throw it for strikes last season. His curve should become a true plus pitch as he continues to learn to repeat it and his changeup has a chance to be average. He has smoothed out his delivery somewhat and his command has improved so much that he has a chance to stick as a starter. Added to the 40-man roster in November, Karns advanced to Double-A in 2013 and gets the call-up to face the Orioles in his major-league debut.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Minor-league stats: 46 games, 40 GS - 18-8 (W/L) 216.1 IP-139 hits allowed, 98/262 BB/K 2.70 ERA- 1.10 WHIP
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]2013 stats: (Harrisburg AA) 9 GS - 4-3 (W/L) 45 IP-40 hits allowed, 18/55 BB/K 4.60 ERA- 1.29 WHIP[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Current role: #5 starter - Potential: #3 starter.
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Check that, om M Kickham, Minor league stats are all correct except 2013 ERA and WHIP should read: 3.70 and 1.35
 

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Sherwood, I really like your writeups. I know it takes a lot of time to complete detailed write ups the way that you do. Thanks it is greatly appreciated by many. Congrats so far on the good season that you are having. Keep up the good work.
 

Sharp Inc.
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GL Sherwood.
 

Libatards Suck
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Good luck Sherwood
 

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Sherwood, I really like your writeups. I know it takes a lot of time to complete detailed write ups the way that you do. Thanks it is greatly appreciated by many. Congrats so far on the good season that you are having. Keep up the good work.

Thanks for taking the time to acknowledge the time I put it in Hilltop. You're very welcome and so is everyone else on here. Good group of peeps on here. Knowledgeable too.
 

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