4 Wednesday w/analysis

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MINNESOTA +100 over Milwaukee

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Marco Estrada has started 10 games for the Crew this season and his quality-start/poor-start split is 6/4. The story on Estrada is that he’s a fly-ball pitcher with decent base skills that overcomes ordinary stuff to record a nice bottom line. Last year, Estrada had a strong follow-up to '11 rotation shot but how sustainable are those second half gains? He's legit, but his frequent poor starts temper expectations. Estrada has surrendered 11 jacks already in just 58 frames. His BAA is a pedestrian .263 and his ERA is at 4.94, which is right in line with his career ERA of 4.43. As a dog, Estrada holds some value, as a favorite, pitching on the road for the ice-cold Brewers, he offers little. Jean Segura had six hits last night in Milwaukee’s loss to these same Twins in 14 frames. Segura had more hits in one game than the Brewers have wins in May. Since May 1, a stretch of 25 games, the Brew Crew are 5-20. Overall, Milwaukee has won just seven of 21 games on the road.
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Sam Deduno does not, nor has he ever put up pretty surface stats. He has a career ERA of 4.70 in just 90 innings but most disturbing of all, Deduno has walked 60 batters in those 90 frames. His career WHIP of 1.62 is a direct result of all those free passes. Thing is, Deduno has nasty stuff. When he’s throwing strikes he wins games. He can be downright dominant because of his extreme groundball bias profile (62%) and his strikeout rate. Often when Deduno walks someone, he induces the next batter into hitting into a double play. Unlike the other Twins starters, at least Deduno has a live arm. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are one of the league’s worst in drawing walks. That could come into play here, as losing is not only contagious but it has hitters pressing at the plate and swinging at a lot of bad pitches. As they’ve shown all season, the Twins don’t need much out of their starters to win games but could get a very good performance out of Deduno here. [/FONT]
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Toronto +163 over ATLANTA
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Over the past 15 games, the Blue Jays have scored 96 times to lead the league. The closest team to them over taht stretch was the Angels 85 runs scored. Toronto’s .301 batting average over that same span is also tops in the league and is almost 50 points higher than the Braves .253 team batting average over that same stretch. The Braves are a big price here because of the perceived pitching mismatch in the Braves favor but under the surface, it’s not a pitching mismatch at all. Kris Medlen seemingly has continued the fantastic finish he had in 2012. He has a 3.13 ERA after 10 starts. Problem is, that ERA comes with nearly zero skill support. In 63 innings, Medlen’s walks are up (23) and his K’s are down (47). He has a pedestrian 40%/23%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Medlen’s 82% strand rate has kept his ERA at bay but with an xERA of 4.74 and a WHIP of 1.32, regression is on the way. Kris Medlen has one win in 10 starts and some folks may figure that he’s due for a win with such a nice ERA. The only thing Medlen is due for is an ERA correction and it’s not in his favor.
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Also influencing the price is Esmil Rogers making his first start of the season after appearing in 22 games in relief. Rogers hasn't thrown more than 43 pitches in an outing this year and hasn't started a game since 2011 so there's only the slightest possibility he'll pitch deep enough to qualify for a win or quality start. However, the Blue Jays bullpen is one of their strengths should Rogers fail. With a 4.56 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, Rogers may not seem like much but he’s no stranger to starting games and he’s pitched brilliantly in relief lately. Over his last four relief appearances and it included back-to-back, three inning outings, Rogers has not allowed a single run in 7.1 frames. Over that stretch, he’s walked just one batter while striking out five. Rogers has a very light frame (6'0" 150 pounds), but generates an 88-94 mph fastball because of his quick, fluid arm and clean mechanics. Rogers commands his fastball well and is able to work down in the strike zone to lure groundballs. He’s earned this opportunity to start and pitching for the hottest hitting team in the majors and taking back this ridiculous price, he and the Blue Jays are more than worthy of a wager. [/FONT]
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ST. LOUIS -1½ +112 over Kansas City

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Royals just hosted a two-game set against the Cardinals with their two best pitchers going, James Shields and Earvin Santana, and lost them both by three runs each. Now on a seven-game losing streak, K.C. goes into St. Louis with its worst starter scheduled to go. If you’re looking for a pitching mismatch, look no further. Luis Mendoza comes in with a 5.05 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, a .279 BAA and 17 walks issued in just 41 innings. His career BAA is .291. Mendoza was a low strikeout rate and current Cardinals are hitting .308 against him with a gaudy OPS of .804. Mendoza has sub-par command and with a low number of strikeouts, any variations to hit% or strand% will impact his bottom line. He has a rotation for now but there’s not a lot to indicate that he will hold it all year because he remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game. Chances are, he’s not going to fool these well-disciplined Cardinals hitters.
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Lance Lynn transitioned from relief to rotation without a hitch last season. A 6+ ERA and 1.91 WHIP in August was just an aberration. Lynn rebounded with an elite September that has carried over to this season. Lynn’s strikeout rate (66 K’s in 61 innings) and command trends confirm that there's plenty more growth on the horizon. With consistency and an addition of a third pitch, Lance Lynn has been among the beast in the game. His ERA after 10 starts is 2.95 and it comes with full skills support. His early-season strikeout rate spike is fully supported by his elite 11.8% swinging strike rate. At home, Lynn is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.81. If you take away Lynn’s first start of the year in Arizona in which he was tagged for four runs in four innings, his numbers would be off the charts. In closing, we get a huge pitching mismatch in our favor and we get the host with the major’s best record at 34-17 against a garbage pitcher, a gassed bullpen and a team that can’t wait for May to end. That works. [/FONT]
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Los Angeles (NL) +160 over L.A. ANGELS
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[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Jered Weaver comes off the DL to make this start after he broke his left non-throwing elbow on April 7th against the Rangers. Weaver went 20-5 last season with the Angels with a 2.81 ERA. It was one of those seasons where absolutely everything went Weaver’s way and as a result of that incredible year, he’s grossly overvalued this season. Weaver’s xERA last season was 4.01. In two early starts this year, his xERA was 5.64. Weaver continues to be stingy with the free passes but there are warning signs. His hit% can't stay as low as it did last season. His strikeout rate is dipping and his command isn’t far behind. Since 2006, covering his entire career, Weaver has never had a groundball rate over 36%. In fact, he’s usually at around the 30% mark. His line-drive rate last year of 21% was the highest in his career and we’re here to tell you that everything that was hit off Weaver the entire season was hit right at people. He was MLB’s luckiest pitcher and it wasn’t close. Some will overlook Weaver’s two starts this year and attribute them to early season rust. In 11 innings, he walked six batters and struck out six but his peripherals were exactly the same as last year only this time those hard hit balls and fly-balls to the outfield did not land in someone’s glove. In his last start on April 7, Weaver faced 25 batters and only five of them grounded out. Someone will pay for his 20 W/sub-3 ERA from a year ago and lay the big juice. Don’t follow suit because Jered Weaver is nothing but smoke and mirrors, he’s not a 20-game winner and his skills suggest that a huge regression is forthcoming.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]

We could talk about Chris Capuano but it’s not relevant, as this play is all about fading an overpriced Weaver. Of course, anything can happen in one game. Capuano could get whacked and the Angels could win going away. That’s not relevant either. Our philosophy is centered around playing value and that’s precisely what we’re doing here because this tag is based on what Jared Weaver, a pitcher that is perceived in the market as being elite, did last season. Truth is, Weaver is not that good and will be exposed as such in the coming weeks. Sell high.
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Member
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Good luck today Sherwood with you on the Dodgers
 

Member
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Feb 24, 2005
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enjoy the saber slant & tks for sharing that part of your perspective. oldschool still stuck on era, ba, rbi, w-loss, etc. so appreciate the help.
 

Libatards Suck
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BOL tonight
 

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