| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +5.50 |
| Last 30 Days | 42 | 36 | 0.00 | +24.12 |
| Season to Date | 81 | 79 | 0.00 | +26.38 |
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Chicago (AL) -110 over CHICAGO (NL)
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Travis Wood is off to an outstanding start on the surface, as in 10 starts he has a 2.73 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. All of his peripheral stats look the same as last season, except for one (HR/F). He has cut his HR/F in half, from 13% last season to just 6% this season. With the winds at Wrigley expected to be blowing out to left, and with Wood having a 56% fly-ball rate, it will be tough for Wood to keep the White Sox in the park here. Wood has an xERA of 4.28, which is 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. Wood is also likely to walk some batters (22 BB in 66 IP), which is never a good thing with the winds at Wrigley blowing out. Regression is coming and it’s very likely to occur here.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Jake Peavy continues to impress. Having missed a good part of 2009-2011 due to various injuries, Peavy is still under the radar and that presents a nice buy low opportunity here. While a high strand% indicates that his ERA will rise a bit, xERA (3.30) shows that his skill set remains solid. Peavy’s control is at an elite level with just nine walks in 61 frames. His strikeout rate (63 K’s) is at a level not seen since 2009. Peavy’s 89%/0% dominant-start/disaster-start split should not come as a real surprise, as he posted a 75/0 split last year and his last pure disaster start was in July 2011. We get a huge edge on the hill today with a strikeout pitcher going with the winds blowing out. The price does not reflect the mismatch and therefore the value tag is attached to Jake Peavy and the South side. Incidentally, the White Sox have a big edge in the pen too. Play: Chicago WS -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2). [/FONT]
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Oakland/SAN FRAN over 7½ -105
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Overall, AT&T Park plays as a neutral park, with summer days favoring hitters (game time is 12:45 PM PST) but the damp nighttime air being particularly helpful to pitchers. As an open-air park by the Bay, the park is also quite subject to variable winds and that will come into play here also. The early weather report today has the wind blowing out to center at 25 MPH and that, along with it being a matinée affair, is bad news for these two pitchers. A.J. Griffin has a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP after 63 innings but his base skills have been very average. With an average fastball velocity of 89.3 mph and a horrible groundball/fly-ball split of 32%/46%, Griffin is walking a fine line between quality starts and disaster starts. His best weapon is his curveball, which is the only thing that allows him to at pitch at this level. When Griffin’s curve isn’t working well, he has no shot of success. Almost every ball hit off this guy is a screamer and chances are the Giants get to him for a few.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
It really is amazing. Baseball "experts" everywhere have been singing the praises of Barry Zito since the second half of last year. "Barry Zito is finally living up to his $126 million contract." "He's commanding his curve." "He's added a slider to keep batters off balance." Good thing you are reading this, because this is the only sentence you should believe. "This is still Barry Zito." Zito has been defying logic for too long but it’s finally starting to catch up to him. Zito has been tagged for 30 hits and 17 runs over his last 17.1 innings and overall, he has a BAA of .305 with an unacceptable WHIP of 1.52. His line-drive rate of 30% this year is the highest of any starting pitching in the big leagues with at least six starts. He has a groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/34% and now he’s beginning to walk more batters also. Zito’s skills are among the worst in the league. There is nothing in Zito’s profile, other than he’s a lefty, that can explain how he gets batters out. Amazingly, Zito’s home ERA is 1.38 but that’s actually good news because it’s unsustainable and now it’s time to see his home ERA implode as badly as his road ERA. One or both of these pitchers is very likely to get lit up here, sending this one over the low number. Play: SF/OAK over 7½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2). [/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT]MLB Call-ups
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Alexander Colome (RHP, TAM)[FONT=arial !important]
The highly touted Alexander Colome will finally get the opportunity to make his major league debut with his recent promotion from AAA-Durham. Entering the season, Colome was ranked 8th overall in the Rays system and in his first 10 games in 2013 he has demonstrated the corresponding raw skills. Colome pitched well in 2012 but had a hard time staying on the mound. He missed a month and a half when he hurt his left oblique while fielding a bunt in his second start, and his season came to a premature end with a lat strain in mid-August. Colome has a special arm that generates impressive velocity and good movement. His fastball sits at 93-95 mph with excellent sink and some arm-side run. He also throws two breaking balls, a sharp curveball with tight spin and an upper-80s slider that’s less consistent. He has added fade to his changeup but he lacks the confidence to throw it when behind in the count. Colome made the transition from a thrower to a pitcher in 2012 after trying to strike out every batter earlier in his career. He struggled at the beginning of his starts early in the campaign before he improved his pitch selection and command. If his feel for pitching continues to get better, Colome has what it takes to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the big leagues. The skills are there and it is a matter of time before he gets a full-time role.[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Minor league totals: 119 g, 115 GS, 38-39 (W/L). 584 IP - 271/596 BB/K. 3.56 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
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2013 STATS: Durham (AAA) – 10 g, 10 gs, 4-5 2.60 ERA, 55.1 IP - 22/61 BB/K 2.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
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CURRENT ROLE: #5 starter[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
POTENTIAL: #3 Starter[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
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Michael Wacha (RHP – ST. L)[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important]
Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller were the jewels of Texas A&M’s 2009 recruiting class. While Miller signed out of high school, Wacha went 27-7 in three years with the Aggies before turning pro for $1.9 million as the 19th overall pick in the 2012 draft. The Cardinals eased him into pro ball as a reliever, and he responded by striking out 45 in 24 innings (including the Texas League playoffs). Wacha pitches with a 90-93 mph sinking fastball as a starter, though he worked from 94-97 while coming out of the bullpen in his pro debut. What makes his fastball devastating is his changeup, the best available in the 2012 draft. He uses a circle grip and throws it with deception and a late fade. Wacha would have gone toward the top of the draft if he had a better breaking pitch. His slider shows more promise than his curveball, though neither figures to become better than average. His command and competitiveness are two more pluses in his favor. After reaching Double-A in his pro debut, Wacha pitched at Memphis (AAA) to this year, this time as a starter. It’s easy to project him as a mid-rotation starter, and he could turn into something more if he finds a reliable breaking ball. Things have moved a bit too quickly for Wacha, as he only has limited experience in pro ball and may need more seasoning. His long-term stock as an impact SP remains high because of an electric fastball/change-up combo, which helped him dominate minor league batters in 2012.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]
Minor league totals: 20 g, 11 GS, 4-0 (W/L), 1.71 ERA, 73.2 IP - 19/74 BB/K. 0.84 WHIP
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2013 STATS: Memphis (AAA) – 9 g, 9 GS, 4-0 (W/L), 2.05 ERA, 52.2 IP - 15/34 BB/K. 0.95 WHIP
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CURRENT ROLE: #5 starter
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POTENTIAL: #2-3 Starter[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
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