Service Plays Sunday 6/2/13

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NASCAR betting: FedEx 500 preview

NASCAR is taking on the Monster Mile at the Dover International Speedway for the FedEx 400 Sunday.

The event will mark the midpoint of the 26-race regular season and a year ago, nine of the top-10 ranked drivers leaving “The Monster Mile” wound up punching their tickets into the Chase.

Here’s our betting preview:

Favorite: Jimmie Johnson (+400)

Johnson has owned Dover in the past and was the fastest on the track at practice this week. He won both races at Dover in 2002, becoming the first driver in history to score a season-sweep at a track during his rookie campaign. Johnson has seven wins, 11 top-fives, and 16 top-10s in 22 starts at the Monster Mile. He is also the defending champ.

Live dog: Kurt Busch (+2000)

In 25 Dover starts, Busch has one win (2011), six top-fives and eight top-10s. He led 90 laps in his October 2011 win and has led at least two laps in each of his last four starts. He’s starting to heat up and bettors can get great value on him this weekend.

Long shot: Ryan Newman (+7500)

Newman has great value this week for a driver that boasts three wins and six top-fives at Dover in 22 starts.

Key stat: The winner of 16 of the last 19 races at Dover has come from a driver who started inside the top 10.

Notable quotable

"Dover is one of my favorite tracks. It's one of the few tracks that you get your greatest sense of speed. You can really feel the speed inside the car and anything can happen at that one-mile oval, making the nickname 'Monster Mile' very fitting. When you drop off into the corner, you feel the speed the most.” - Paul Menard

Odds to win the FedEx 400 courtesy of JustBet:

Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Tony Stewart 35/1
Joey Logano 35/1
Mark Martin 40/1
Ryan Newman 75/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Juan Montoya 100/1
Jeff Burton 200/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Austin Dillon 300/1
Field 50/1

NASCAR Battles Monster Mile Sunday
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks

Sunday, June 2 – 2:00 p.m. EDT
Dover International Speedway – Dover, DE
NASCAR remains on the East Coast this Sunday when the drivers try their luck in Dover, DE for the FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks. Dover International Speedway, nicknamed the "Monster Mile" is a 1-mile, intermediate concrete track completed in 1969 in an oval shape. Each turn has the same "monster" 24° banking and straightaways consist of 9° banking. Both the frontstretch and backstretch measure 1,076 feet (0.204 miles). Jimmie Johnson has won seven of his 22 races at Dover, but Brad Keselowski won at this track in the most recent race last fall. Starting position is very important at this venue, as seven of the past 10 Dover winners have started in one of the top five spots.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 4-to-1
Kyle Busch 5-to-1
Matt Kenseth 6-to-1
Kasey Kahne 8-to-1
Denny Hamlin 8-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Carl Edwards 12-to-1
Clint Bowyer 12-to-1
Jeff Gordon 15-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-to-1
Kevin Harvick 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20-to-1
Kurt Busch 20-to-1
Joey Logano 35-to-1
Tony Stewart 35-to-1
Mark Martin 40-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 50-to-1
Ryan Newman 75-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Jamie McMurray 100-to-1
Juan Montoya 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Jeff Burton 200-to-1
Austin Dillon 300-to-1
Danica Patrick 300-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - Not only has Johnson won seven times at this track since 2002, but his average finish is a stellar 6.3 since 2005, spanning 16 races. In his past eight starts at Dover, he has four wins, a runner-up, and a 4th, 9th and 16th. This season, he's finished in the top-5 in half the races, and placed 12th or better in all but two starts. The odds are very low for No. 48, but Johnson is clearly the favorite, and is worth a small wager.

Martin Truex Jr. (15/1) - He has certainly had some shining moments at Dover, as he's started third or better in four of his past six starts at this track, a stretch which includes two pole positions. More importantly, Truex Jr. has also finished in the top-8 in three of the past four starts at the "Monster Mile." He's also turned his 2013 season around completely, as Truex was in 25th place with a 23.0 average finish after his first six races this year, but has now moved up to 9th place in the standings, thanks to an 8.5 average finish over his past six starts. At 15-to-1, his value is pretty strong here.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - He won the Dover race last fall, and also finished strong in the one concrete track race this season at Bristol, placing third behind Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch. Keselowski's average finish at this track is a mediocre 14.3 in six starts, but he has not enjoyed especially strong starting positions either (16.8 average). Keselowski is also due to bust out of his month-long slump that has seen him place 33rd, 15th, 32nd and 36th in his past four starts. The defending Points champion doesn't usually get double-digit odds anymore, so pounce on him with at least a small wager on Sunday.

Joey Logano (35/1) - As darkhorses go, Logano has a lot to offer bettors on Sunday. First of all, he's thrived on concrete tracks with three top-10's in his past four races on this surface, which includes finishes of 8th and 10th at Dover. Logano has also raced better than his current 19th place in the standings shows. Take away his two crashes in Kansas and Talladega, and he's tallied top-5's in four of his past six races. At 35-to-1, a one-unit wager could sure go a long way.

Jeff Burton (200/1) - He's got a great chance of being in contention at the "Monster Mile," where he won in 2006 and has seven other top-5 showings at Dover in his career. Since 2005, Burton has placed 12th or better in 12 of 16 starts at this track, posting runner-up finishes in both of the 2010 Dover starts. Burton has also led two of the past four races this season, which included a 5th-place finish at Richmond. You won't get much better than 200-to-1 odds for a driver with such a good chance of running near the front of the pack.

Sports betting beat: The latest industry news
By JON CAMPBELL

Sports bettors north of the border have been on an emotional see-saw ride going back to last year and it seems momentum has swayed back in the favor of the wagering public recently in regards to bill C290.

It took a Senatorial spending scandal to do it, but we’ll take what we can get when it comes to progress on the legalization of sports betting, in this case legal single-game wagering in Canada.

If you haven’t been following, senators need only to rubber stamp the bill after it was passed unanimously in the House of Commons. Victory seemed at hand but feet-dragging and fear mongering from the major pro sports leagues and a small number of Members of Parliament seemed to doom the bill on the table.

Cue some highly questionable spending habits from a small handful of senators and there is suddenly new optimism the bill might pass after all.

Government Senate Leader Marjory LeBreton is reported to make an effort to fast track some private members’ bills in the Senate in an effort to extend an olive branch to the elected government. The last thing the Prime Minister wants is to be taking heat for senators, who are already largely viewed by most working Canadians as an opulent waste of taxpayers’ money.

The news highlights what is the most exciting time we’ve ever seen in sports betting.

Legalization efforts are being pushed across the continent, led by New Jersey in the United States. And bettors have more safe, reputable options than ever before to bet on more sports in more ways than maybe we could have even imagined as recently as a decade ago.

We, at Covers, truly believe we are on the brink of a new era in transparency and legality in sports betting and it is only a matter of time before that happens.

In light of that, each week I’ll be writing about the latest buzz, quirks and controversy in the sports betting industry to keep you in the loop in a quick-hitting read you can scan over in the time it takes for an NBA playoff game to return from commercial.

Here’s what’s been going on over roughly the past week or so:

Bad news for sports bettors in Nevada. The State Assembly voted unanimously to ban sports betting kiosks from neighborhood casinos, taverns and bars. William Hill is considering its options after investing on this side of the sports betting biz when it entered the Nevada market last year.

On a more positive note for Will Hill, they had their grand opening of their slick new sportsbook at the Grand Sierra on Friday. On another not so positive note, more headlines arose this past week in Cantor’s lawsuit against them.

The next hearing in the ongoing sports betting case in New Jersey has been postponed because of a serious and unfortunate bicycle accident of all things. You can follow our coverage of the case on our new Rebelmouse page.

One lucky player at BetOnline cashed out a $17,000, 25-team parlay on a $300 bet this week.

The latest in the ongoing wrangling over sports betting in Australia has resulted in a public apology from bookmaker Tom Waterhouse.

India has a sports betting battle of its own brewing over legalization.

Sports wagering was a hot topic at the International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking this past week. ESPN's Chad Millman, among others spoke. VegasInc.com touched on the event in this cool column on the evolution of sports betting.

MLB betting: Cardinals an awesome road bet

The St. Louis Cardinals have been absolute gold for bettors on the road.

The Cardinals boast a league-best 20-9 road record heading into action Saturday. The next best clubs away from home (Boston, Baltimore) are only five games above .500.

Any $100 bettor would be up $1,083 if they wagered on each of St. Louis’ away games. However, bettors will have to wait until June 7 for the Cards’ next road tilt.

St. Louis hits the road for a 10-game trip down the east coast, beginning in Cincinnati. The Cardinals will then head down the coast for three-game sets with the New York Mets and Miami Marlins.

St. Louis has a combined 7-3 record against the Reds and Mets this season, and has yet to square off with the lowly Marlins.

The Cardinals are averaging 5.06 runs per game and their pitching staff boasts an impressive 2.97 ERA away from Busch Stadium.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to a prevailing over/under trend. St. Louis is 14-13-2 O/U on the road to date.

Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox at Yankees
By STEVE MERRIL

Sunday Night Baseball comes to New York as the Yankees host the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-115, 8)

MOLDING WINS FROM CLAY

Clay Buchholz is back after missing a start due to soreness in his right AC joint. The righty is 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA while holding opponents to a .194 batting average. This will be his second start against the Yankees after picking up a win against them on April 3 in New York. In that game, Buchholz allowed one run and six hits in seven innings, striking out four while walking two. The righty has been spectacular on the road, allowing just four total runs in his four starts away from Boston. His one weakness may be a lack of control, but even that hasn't been too bad with exactly three walks in each of his past three outings.

KURODA KEEPING IT GOING

Hiroki Kuroda has been one of the best pitchers for his team this season. The Yankees’ starter is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA. He got a no-decision his last time out in a pitcher's duel with Matt Harvey when Mariano Rivera blew his first save of the season. Kuroda had a rough outing against Boston at home back on April 3 when he gave up two runs and four hits in just 1 1/3 innings before getting hit by a line drive. The righty has allowed only five earned runs in five starts at home.

INJURY REPORT

The injury situation is steadily improving for the Yankees who just recently got Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira back from injuries. The lineup is still awaiting the return of Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter. They are also without Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli. Andy Pettitte is going to return from his neck injury on Monday against the Indians. Michael Pineda is also potentially coming back in June as he returns from a shoulder injury. Boston’s list is a lot shorter with Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks on the DL. Both are expected back early this month. The loss of Joel Hanrahan to Tommy John surgery could make things interesting for Boston’s bullpen.

TRENDS

The under is 8-2 in Buchholz’s last 10 Sunday starts.
Red Sox are 9-1 in Buchholz’s last 10 starts
The over is 9-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 14 Sunday games.
Yankees are 7-3 in Kuroda’s last 10 starts

HITTERS TO WATCH

Robinson Cano 12-for-28 vs. Buchholz
Lyle Overbay 7-for-25 vs. Buchholz
Stephen Drew 8-for-24 vs. Kuroda
Dustin Pedroia 7-for-15 vs. Kuroda

Kings at Blackhawks: What bettors need to know

Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks (-160, 4.5)

Blackhawks lead best-of-seven series 1-0.

The Los Angeles Kings faced little resistance on the road during last season's impressive run to the Stanley Cup. This year's path has been paved with pitfalls, however, as the fifth-seeded Kings will look to overcome their troubles away from Staples Center and level their Western Conference final series at one game apiece on Sunday when they visit the top-seeded Chicago Blackhawks. Patrick Sharp scored his NHL-leading eighth goal and Marian Hossa tallied nearly four minutes later in the second period as the Blackhawks skated to a 2-1 triumph in Game 1 on Saturday.

The final score is a certainly familiar one for Los Angeles, which has lost all six of its postseason contests by that same result. The setback dropped the Kings to 1-6 away from home - a stark contrast to their 10-1 mark during last season's playoffs. Corey Crawford turned aside 21 shots as Presidents' Trophy-winning Chicago improved to 7-1 at the United Center.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE KINGS: Jonathan Quick deserved a better fate after stopping all 17 shots in the first period and 34 overall. The reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner allowed goals following a rebound and a deflection in the second period before closing the door. Justin Williams followed up his magnificent Game 7 performance versus San Jose with his third goal in two contests - although he technically didn't even shoot the puck on his first-period goal on Saturday. Chicago's Dave Bolland attempted to clear the puck from the slot, but it bounced off Williams' stick and inside the right post.

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: While Bolland's brutal hit on Los Angeles' Mike Richards late in the third period brought the United Center fans to their feet, it may also receive some attention from the league. Richards was behind the net when he elected to change course in an attempt to tuck the puck inside the near post. Bolland appeared to leave his feet when delivering the hit to the chin of Richards, who had trouble regaining his faculties as he skated to the bench. "I just came in and hit him," Bolland said matter-of-factly. "It's a quick game. It's a hard-hitting game. It's just the way it is."

TRENDS:

* Kings are 1-12 in their last 13 road games.
* Under is 8-0-2 in Kings’ last 10 road games.
* Blackhawks are 9-2 in their last 11 Sunday games.

OVERTIME

1. After killing off both of Los Angeles' power plays, Chicago has yet to yield a goal in 23 short-handed situations at home in the playoffs. In total, the Blackhawks are 42-for-43 on the penalty kill.

2. D Duncan Keith led Chicago in ice time (23:55) and matched LW Bryan Bickell for the team lead with five shots.

3. The reason for the quick turnaround between games stems from a Rolling Stones concert, which is scheduled for Monday at the United Center.

Roxxy

wnba

5 PHOENIX MERCURY

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Sunday White Sox/Oakland Under 8

Baseball Crusher
Chicago White Sox -107 over Oakland A's
(System Record: 31-4, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 31-32-1

Soccer Crusher
Union + Colon UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 405-15, won last game)
Overall Record: 405-354-49

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Harvey is 1-1, 2.09 in his last six starts.
-- Latos is 5-0, 3.10 in his last eight starts. Pittsburgh is 6-0 when Gomez starts (2-0, 2.76).
-- Phillies won last five Lee starts (4-0, 1.15).
-- Lyons is 2-0, 1.29 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Arizona is 10-0 when Corbin starts (8-0, 1.83).
-- Ryu is 3-0, 1.61 iun his last four starts. Colorado won last five de la Rosa starts (4-0, 2.08).

-- Porcello is 1-0, 2.89 in his last three starts.
-- Darvish is 4-1, 2.89 in his last seven starts.
-- Parker is 2-1, 2.96 in his last four starts. Sale is 4-0, 1.54 in his last six.
-- Lyles is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Kuroda is 4-0, 0.90 in his last four home starts. Red Sox are 9-1 when Buchholz starts (1-0, 2.05 in last three).

Cold pitchers
-- Slowey is 0-3, 8.00 in his last four starts.
-- Maholm is 3-3, 5.94 in his last seven starts. Karns allowed three runs in 4.1 IP in his first MLB start.
-- Fiers is 0-2, 10.00 in two starts this season.
-- Gaudin is making first '13 start; he has 75 big league starts, but none since '09. He's pitched 30.2 innings (0-1, 2.05) in 18 relief appearances this year.
-- Jackson is 1-4, 7.00 in his last six starts.

-- Volquez is 1-2, 5.30 in his last three starts. Ortiz is 1-2, 3.77 in his three starts this season.

-- Hellickson has a 6.83 RA in his last four starts. McAllister is 1-1, 4.18 in his last four starts.
-- Gausman is 0-2, 11.00 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Diamond is 0-2, 8.41 in his last four starts. Bonderman has made 193 starts in big leagues, but was last in MLB in 2010 (8-10, 5.53 in 29 starts)- he was 2-4, 4.52 in 11 AAA starts this season.
-- Santana is 0-4, 4.76 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 1-3, 5.23 in his last five starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Harvey 2-11; Slowey 3-11
-- Karns 0-1; Maholm 2-11
-- Latos 4-11 (3 of last 4); Gomez 2-6
-- Fiers 2-2; Lee 1-11
-- Gaudin 0-0; Lyons 1-2
-- Corbin 2-10; Jackson 5-11
-- Ryu 3-11; de la Rosa 3-11

-- Ortiz 1-3; Volquez 3-11 (0 of last 7)

-- Hellickson 7-11; McAllister 3-10
-- Porcello 2-9; Gausman 1-2
-- Bonderman 0-0; Diamond 4-9
-- Santana 6-11; Darvish 5-10
-- Lyles 4-6; Wilson 3-11
-- Sale 4-10; Parker 4-11
-- Buchholz 1-10; Kuroda 5-11

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of Mets' last 16 games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Washington games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight St Louis games.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Ryu starts.

-- Seven of last ten Toronto games went over the total.

-- Over is 13-3-1 in Baltimore's last seventeen games.
-- Over is 24-8-1 in last 33 Tampa Bay games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Kuroda starts.
-- Last three Darvish home starts stayed under the total.
-- Last three Diamond starts went over the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels' last nine games.
-- Seven of last eight Oakland home games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won five of their last six games.
-- Reds won 16 of their last 21 games.
-- Atlanta won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Cardinals won 23 of their last 30 games.

-- Padres won four of their last five games.

-- Orioles won six of their last nine games.
-- Rays won five of their last six games.
-- Twins won six of their last eight games.
-- Houston won five of their last six games.
-- A's won 13 of their last 15 games.

Cold teams
-- Arizona lost four of its last five road games.
-- Pittsburgh lost its last two games, scoring zero runs.
-- Brewers lost 13 of their last 18 games, but won last two. Philly is 3-6 in its last nine games.
-- Marlins won last two games, after losing previous nine. Mets lost last two games, after winning previous five.
-- Nationals lost five of their last eight games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Dodgers lost 10 of their last 13 road games. Rockies lost six of their last eight games overall.

-- Toronto lost eight of its last eleven road games.

-- Detroit lost four of its last five games.
-- Indians lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Bronx lost six of its last seven games. Boston lost three of last five.
-- Royals lost 13 of their last 16 games. Texas lost four of last six.
-- Mariners lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Angels lost four of their last six games.
-- White Sox lost their last five games, allowing 31 runs.

Umpires
-- NY-Mia-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Kellogg games.
-- Mil-Phil--Under is 19-5-1 in last 25 Kulpa games.
-- SF-StL-- Three of last four TWelke games stayed under.
-- LA-Col-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Knight games.
-- Az-Chi-- Basner is a rookie ump; two of his three games LY went over.
-- Cin-Pitt-- Underdogs/over are both 7-1 in last eight Davidson games.
-- Wsh-Atl-- This is Gorman's first game this year; under was 12-7-2 in last 21 games LY.

-- Tor-SD-- Favorites won last ten Hernandez games.

-- TB-Cle-- Six of last eight BWelke games stayed under total.
-- Sea-Min-- Underdogs won four of last five Hudson games.
-- Chi-A's-- Home team won seven of last eight Muchlinski games.
-- KC-Tex-- Seven of last ten Miller games stayed under total.
-- Det-Balt-- Favorites won nine of last twelve Porter games.
-- Bos-NY-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Carapazza games.
-- Hst-LA-- Home team won eight of last ten Marquez games.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1041-773 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Sun: Over10 Tigers/Balt.

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h] [h=2]Tampa Bay at Cleveland[/h] The Rays look to build on their 8-0 record in Jeremy Hellickson's last 8 Sunday starts. Tampa Bay is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

Cappers Access

Pirates +125
D'Backs -135

Beathespread mlb sunday 6/2:

Phillies -160
mets -185
rays +125
tigers -114

good luck!!!!

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB BOSTON at NY YANKEES

Play Against - Road teams (BOSTON) average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
41-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 24.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB CHI WHITE SOX at OAKLAND

OAKLAND is 66-38 (+35.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: OAKLAND (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.7)

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

WNBA PHOENIX at SEATTLE

Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher against opponent after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better
38-14 since 1997. ( 73.1% 22.6 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at SEATTLE

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) vs. division opponents, off a home loss by 10 points or more
145-52 since 1997. ( 73.6% 0.0 units )

WNBA TULSA at CHICAGO

Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more
218-131 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.5% 73.9 units )

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

BASEBALL

WASHINGTON/ATLANTA - OVER 8 -115 (130PM)

MILWAUKEE/PHILLY - UNDER 8 -110 (135PM)

WNBA

PHOENIX/SEATTLE - OVER 162.5 (9PM)

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

06/02/13 Prediction

Season: 316-195 (.618)

Western Conference Finals
Game 2, best-of-7
CHICAGO 3, Los Angeles 2