Service Plays Thursday 6/6/13

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NBA Finals series betting preview: Heat vs. Spurs

The NBA Playoffs are down to two teams, the defending champion Miami Heat and the veteran-heavy San Antonio Spurs. This is the third straight NBA Finals appearance for the Heat and the Spurs’ fourth trip to the finals in the last 11 seasons.

Here’s a look at how these teams stack up and their odds to win the NBA Championship heading into Game 1 Thursday.

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs

Season series: Miami 2-0, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Series prices: Miami -220, San Antonio +190
Postseason record: Miami 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-7-2 O/U, San Antonio 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 7-7 O/U

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio has been off for nine full days since sweeping Memphis in the Western Conference finals. For most teams, that layoff would disrupt momentum but the Spurs have proven mentally strong during extended breaks, going 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when playing on three or more days rest this season. The Spurs don’t have a true 7-footer inside like Indiana’s Roy Hibbert but they are tough in the paint, with Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter going up against a smaller Miami frontcourt. San Antonio can quickly adapt to any pace and Gregg Popovich has had ample time to cook up a plan for slowing down LeBron & Co.

Why bet the Heat: LeBron. The reigning MVP is approaching Jordan status as the ultimate trump card when it comes to arguing which team will win. San Antonio will throw Kawhi Leonard at James, who scored 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in his lone game vs. the Spurs this season (missed the other due to injury), but there is no stopping LeBron. Not to mention, there’s still a chip on James’ shoulder from a 2007 finals sweep to San Antonio while with the Cavs. Dwyane Wade scored 21 points in the finale with Indiana, his playoff high. If he’s awakening from his postseason slumber, the Heat could burn San Antonio when it doubles up on James.

NBA teams off seven-game series struggle in Game 1 of finals

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have followed two different paths to the NBA Finals.

The defending champion Heat are coming off a grueling seven-game series with the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, with just two days to recover before the NBA Finals begin Thursday. The Spurs, on the other hand, will have had their feet up for nine full days since sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals on May 27.

Miami is a -220 series favorite versus San Antonio (+190) and is a 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1.

Teams coming off an emotional Game 7 win haven’t fared that well in the NBA Finals. Since 1993, 10 teams have gone the distance in their respective conference championship and only four of those went on to win the title.

Fortunately, for Miami fans, the Heat did just that last season after going the full seven versus the Boston Celtics in the East finals. But as good as Miami was in 2012, it was unable to avoid a letdown in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, like so many other teams in this situation.

Those 10 teams coming off a full seven in the conference finals have gone just 3-7 SU and ATS in the opening game of the championship series, including the 2012 Heat who fell 105-94 as 5-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of last year’s finals.

On the other side of the series, San Antonio finds itself among the NBA’s elite by sweeping its conference championship. The Spurs are just the seventh team to win four straight heading into the NBA Finals since 1991, with four of those past six teams going on to win the title. However, in an odd twist, just two of those six teams managed to cover the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The last time the finals featured one team off a sweep and one off a seven-game set was 2001, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Spurs in four games and played the Philadelphia 76ers, who edged the Milwaukee Bucks in seven contests. The Sixers stunned the Lakers 107-101 in overtime as 12-point underdogs but lost the series in five games.

Heat open as NBA Finals series, Game 1 favorites versus Spurs

The Miami Heat escaped Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals and are now favorites to win back-to-back NBA titles, opening as -220 series chalk against the San Antonio Spurs (+190).

Miami thumped the Indiana Pacers in the deciding game of the East finals Monday, winning 99-76 as a 7-point home favorite. The Heat will have two days to prepare for San Antonio, which will be off for nine full days heading into the finals since sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals on May 27.

Game 1 is scheduled for Thursday in Miami. Oddsmakers have opened the Heat as 5.5-point home favorites. The Heat won both meetings with the Spurs, going 1-1 ATS this season, and have taken each of the past four games versus San Antonio (1-3 ATS).

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

06/06/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 853-404 (.679)
ATS: 668-621 (.518)
ATS Vary Units: 1667-1576 (.514)
Over/Under: 662-627 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 917-845 (.520)

NBA Finals
Game #1
MIAMI 100, San Antonio 95

Spurs, Heat tip-off NBA Finals on Thursday

NBA Finals
Game 1
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -5.5, Total: 188.5

Two teams with plenty of championship rings are hoping to add some more hardware when the Heat host the Spurs in the series opener of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

Both teams boast two former MVPs of the NBA Finals with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker of San Antonio and Miami's dynamic duo of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade all having hoisted the MVP trophy after winning a title. The Spurs have won four league championships in four NBA Finals appearances -- all since 1999 -- while the Heat are making their third straight NBA Finals appearance, winning it all last season. These clubs met only twice in the regular season with Miami prevailing both times. The first game was a 105-100 home win on Nov. 29, when Gregg Popovich sent four of his top players home -- Duncan, Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green. The Spurs did play with a full roster in the most recent meeting at AT&T Center on March 31, but even though the Heat were missing both James (hamstring) and Wade (ankle), they still pulled out an 88-86 win. San Antonio is both the hotter team in this series with six straight wins (5-1 ATS), and is also the more well-rested club, not having played since May 27 when it finished a sweep of the Grizzlies in the West Finals. The veteran Spurs have enjoyed long layoffs, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) with at least three days off, outscoring these teams by 8.1 PPG. The Heat are coming off a grueling seven-game series with the Pacers that concluded on Monday, giving them two off-days before starting this series. They have been great with exactly two days in between games, going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) and outscoring these opponents by 8.9 PPG. San Antonio has not enjoyed the underdog role this season (6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS), but has been strong on the road all season, going 29-19 SU and 26-22 ATS (54%). This includes a 6-1 away record (SU and ATS) in the playoffs. Miami is a nearly unbeatable 44-6 SU at home this season, but is just 26-24 ATS in these 50 games at AmericanAirlines Arena. This includes a subpar 4-5 ATS mark (7-2 SU) in front of its home fans this postseason.

The Spurs are in the midst of quite a postseason, going 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS (71%). They have outscored opponents by 10.1 PPG and outshot them 47% FG to 42% FG. Part of this great shooting has come from an unselfish and careful offense that has 23.6 APG and just 12.0 TOPG (1.96 Ast/TO ratio). Defensively, the team has generated 8.3 SPG and 5.4 BPG, which has helped make up for a minus-2.7 RPG margin during this postseason. PG Tony Parker (23.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 3.9 RPG in playoffs) and PF Tim Duncan (17.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG in playoffs) have both enjoyed a brilliant postseason. And both have also shined in previous NBA Finals, as Parker has averaged 16.4 PPG (47% FG) and 3.6 APG over three Finals, while Duncan has posted an outstanding 22.7 PPG, 14.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 3.0 BPG during four championship runs in four tries. SG Manu Ginobili (11.5 PPG, 5.4 APG, 4.5 RPG in playoffs) has been a part of three title teams, averaging 14.9 PPG and 5.4 RPG in his NBA Finals career. The two other main contributors this postseason have been SF Kawhi Leonard (13.0 PPG on 57% FG, 8.0 RPG in playoffs) and SG Danny Green (9.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG in playoffs). Leonard scored 17 points and 11 rebounds in the one meeting with Miami this season, while Green had 12 points and three boards in his lone matchup with the Heat this season.

Miami is 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS this postseason, but has really been struggling offensively. In the regular season, the team failed shot below 40% FG just once in 82 games (38% FG on Nov. 11 at Memphis), but in the past four contests, the club has failed to reach 40% shooting three times. After shooting a season-worst 36.1% FG in the Game 6 loss, the Heat improved to just 39.5% FG in the Game 7 clincher. However, the defense has been consistently excellent all postseason, holding opponents to 87.6 PPG on 42.9% FG and 32.5% threes. Miami has generated 8.1 SPG and 5.6 BPG, while carrying a strong 1.50 Ast/TO ratio with 20.3 APG and 13.5 TOPG during the playoffs. And just like San Antonio, rebounding has also been a problem for the Heat, who have a minus-2.2 RPG margin in the postseason. SF LeBron James (26.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 6.4 APG in playoffs) will be playing in his fourth NBA Finals where he's averaged 22.5 PPG (43.8% FG), 8.1 RPG and 7.0 APG in his career. When he faced the Spurs in the 2007 Finals, James had 22.0 PPG, but made just 35.6% FG and had 5.8 TOPG in the four-game sweep. But in 17 career regular-season games versus San Antonio, James has poured in 27.9 PPG on 51% shooting while adding 7.1 RPG and 6.4 APG for good measure. SG Dwyane Wade (14.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.9 APG in playoffs) has been wildly inconsistent during these playoffs, which probably has a lot to do with his recurring knee injury. But after making just 11-of-34 shots (32%) during Games 4-6 of the East Finals, Wade had a monster Game 7 with 21 points (7-of-16 FG), nine rebounds (six offensive) and a +17 rating. He's played in three previous NBA Finals, averaging a robust 28.2 PPG (48.4% FG), 7.0 RPG and 4.7 APG. PF Chris Bosh (12.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG in playoffs) is in the midst of a horrible shooting slump, averaging a mere 7.0 PPG on 8-of-34 shooting (23.5%). Although Bosh was manhandled in the last series by the physical Pacers (4.3 RPG in series), he averaged 20.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG in two meetings with the Spurs this season, carrying his team without James and Wade in the March 31 win with 23 points (9-of-15 FG) and nine boards. SG Ray Allen (10.0 PPG, 37% threes in playoffs) has played in two NBA Finals in his career. He shot lights-out in 2008 with 20.3 PPG on 51% FG and 52% threes, but two years later, Allen struggled to a 14.6 PPG average on 37% FG and 29% threes. For his career against San Antonio, Allen has averaged 18.5 PPG on a pedestrian 43.4% FG, but has made an impressive 42.9% threes. PG Mario Chalmers (8.9 PPG, 3.5 APG in playoffs) is playing in his third straight NBA Finals, posting a solid 11.2 PPG (38% threes), 3.7 APG and a 2.1 Ast/TO ratio in those previous 11 games.

NBA Finals Betting Trends and Team Stats
by Marc Lawrence

With the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs set to meet in the 2013 NBA Finals, let’s look at four solid Championship Round betting theories outlined below from our powerful database, along with some tantalizing team trends and an incredible stat.

Note: All results are ATS since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Home on the road

Life may be cozy at home but the money can be found on the road.

Our database finds visiting teams are moneymakers in the NBA Finals, cashing 55 percent of the time, going 65-54-3 ATS.

Better yet, put them in a game with the total at 181 or higher and they improve to a 61 percent winning proposition, going 54-34-1 ATS.

Put these same teams on the road in games with a total of 181 or more off a SU and ATS loss and they ratchet all the way up to 22-8 ATS - a 73 percent ATS spread beater.

Return to earth

Defense rules in the NBA Finals. That’s confirmed by the fact that teams who score less than 90 points in a game in this round are just 31-74 SU and 33-70-2 ATS.

When teams manage to score an inordinate amount of points in any one game, they return to the earth faster than a free-falling spaceship.

That’s validated by the fact that teams who score 110 or more points in the finals are just 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in their next contest.

Dress these same teams up as favorites after igniting the scoreboard and they’ve gone 1-8 ATS.

Meaningful revenge

Speaking of returning to earth, teams in the NBA Finals that had the rug pulled out from underneath them the previous game (lost straight up as a favorite) tend to right them selves in a hurry.

That’s confirmed by a rock-solid 22-12 SU and 18-14-2 ATS mark in games after being upset, including 12-4 ATS when they take to the road off the applecart loss.

Best of all, when road teams where upset as a favorite and managed to stay within 20 or more points of the spread, they are 11-1 ATS in these payback affairs.

Zig-zagging

While the famed “Zig-Zag theory” has unraveled the last 10 years in the playoffs, it still works in this round… if you work it right.

To do so you want to play on a dog off one loss exact in the NBA Finals, as they are 25-17 ATS.

Teams taking 5.5 or more points in this role increase to 13-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .647 or more.

NBA Finals Team Trends

Both Teams own NBA Finals Pedigree.

In this round, Miami is…

10-7 SU and 8-8-1 ATS since 2006.

• 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in games with a total of 189 or more points

• 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in games with a total of less than 189 points.

• 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in games in which they fail to score 88 points.

• 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS off a win of more than six points.

• 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS versus an opponent off a win.

In this round, San Antonio is…

• 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS since 1999, most recently defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers (and LeBron James) in a four-game sweep in 2007.

• 8-0 SU and ATS in games in which they score 88 or more points.

• 7-0 ATS as a favorite of six or more points.

• 4-0 SU and ATS in Game 1 (all as a host).

• 9-1 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a win.

• 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with two or more days of rest.

Incredible Stat

San Antonio is 16-2 SU in all games when playing with five or more days of rest since 2004.

PGA Tour heads to Memphis on Thursday
by Steve Bennett

FedEx St. Jude Classic

Tees Off: Thursday, June 6
TPC Southwind – Memphis, TN

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Phil Mickelson 9-to-1
Brandt Snedeker 9-to-1
Dustin Johnson 15-to-1
Ryan Palmer 20-to-1
Freddie Jacobson 22-to-1
Scott Stallings 22-to-1
Boo Weekley 25-to-1
Billy Horschel 30-to-1
Russell Henley 30-to-1
Tim Clark 30-to-1
Robert Karlsson 30-to-1
Charles Howell III 30-to-1
Ian Poulter 40-to-1
Jimmy Walker 40-to-1
Brendan de Jonge 40-to-1
Peter Hanson 40-to-1
Cameron Tringale 50-to-1
Padraig Harrington 50-to-1
Harris English 50-to-1
John Rollins 50-to-1
Ben Crane 50-to-1
John Merrick 50-to-1
Jeff Overton 50-to-1
D.A. Points 50-to-1
Camilo Villegas 50-to-1
Gary Woodland 50-to-1
Brian Davis 50-to-1
David Toms 60-to-1
Ross Fisher 60-to-1
George Coetzee 60-to-1
Luke Guthrie 60-to-1
Bud Cauley 60-to-1
6 golfers 80-to-1
5 golfers 100-to-1
2 golfers 125-to-1
John Daly 250-to-1
Guan Tianlang 500-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 9-to-5

The Tour moves onto Memphis for the St. Jude Classic. Southwind is one of the tougher Par 70’s on the Tour, and its narrow fairways and smallish greens demand precision over power. In last year's event, Dustin Johnson beat John Merrick by one stroke. Here’s a look at this week’s best bets…

Golfers to Watch

Brandt Snedeker (9/1): Snedeker had a chance to start early on his homecoming to Tennessee after missing the cut at the Memorial. He seems to be fully healthy again, and with his short game, he’ll always have a chance to contend at Southwind, especially in a weak field.

Russell Henley (30/1): It’s been a year of surprise winners on the Tour, and Henley started it all off with a victory at the Sony Open back in January. A two-time winner on the Web.com Tour a year ago, he seems like a candidate to step up in Southwind. He’s gone top-6 in two of his past four starts, including a T6 at the Memorial despite a second-round 77. Henley remains one of the best on the greens, currently 10th in putting (.664 strokes gained).

Freddie Jacobson (22/1): He’s cooled off after a fast start to 2013, but Jacobson was solid at the Byron Nelson and was contending at Colonial before a Sunday collapse. In a weak field, he has a realistic shot to grab his first victory of 2013.

Dustin Johnson (15/1): The defending champ enters this week with a ton of question marks because of back and wrist injuries. Playing through pain in the early spring, he managed a string of top-15's, including a T13 at Augusta. But since the Masters, he’s had to withdraw from the Players Championship and missed the cut at last week’s Memorial. It seems unlikely that he’ll recapture last year’s form, when he grabbed a tightly-contested win with a final-round 66.

Gary Woodland (50/1): Last year at Southwind, it was a big hitter taking the title here in Dustin Johnson. It could certainly be Woodland this year. He’s coming off his best week of the season, a T16 at the Memorial. His erratic putter was as good as it’s been in a while last week, averaging a stroke gained at Muirfield Village (he’s 131st on the Tour at -.197 on the year).

JACK JONES

[h=3]NBA Basketball Premium Picks[/h]-= TOP PLAY =-

RTG Sports - 3* San Antonio Spurs +5

Chicago Syndicate Top Play Thursday Afternoon - Tigers (RL)

Jimmy Moore

#702 4* Miami -5.5 (9:05 edt) ABC

Have to like the Heat here with the Spurs being on a very long
layoff. Miami knows how to win these kind of games - not that the Spurs don't
but that long layoff will have them off kilter here. Look for a big game from
Wade to start to silence his critics and have to like LeBron for a big game as
well. Lay this reasonable number with Miami to be a winner in game 1. Thank you
and good luck.

FedEx St. Jude Classic

Golf Betting Preview and Picks
by Matt Fargo

The final tuneup before the U.S. Open takes place at TPC at Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

Because of the U.S. Open being played next week, a lot of players are taking the week off and it is a watered-down field in Memphis. The field includes only five players ranked in the Top 10 of the FedEx Cup standings and the only Top-10 player in the OWGR teeing it up is Brandt Snedeker.

The field also includes nine winners of major championships as well as seven past St. Jude Classic champions. With the field being light, it makes for a very wide open tournament as proven by some of the recent champions.

Brandt Snedeker (+1,000) is a co-favorite with Phil Mickelson but he’s clearly the better of the two favorites at this point. He missed the cut at the Memorial last week, his sixth missed cut in six starts there. In his other 10 starts, he has six Top 10s and four Top 3s, including a win. He has made the cut here in four of five trips with a T5 being his best finish.

Ryan Palmer (+2,500) has not missed a cut in his last six starts while finishing worse than T33 only once. His best finish during this stretch is a T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship and his latest start resulted in a T14 at Colonial. He’s 10th on tour in driving distance, a big plus here which has shown in his success at TPC Southwind, most recently a T3 last year.

It is hard to look past Robert Karlsson (+3,000) in this event. He has missed the cut in half of his 10 starts this year but he’s coming off a solid T34 despite a Saturday 76 last week. He did miss the cut at TPC Southwind last year but prior to that, he was on the cusp of winning. He lost in 2011 and 2010 in a playoff, both going three or more holes and is certainly due for his first ever PGA Tour win.

Billy Horschel (+3,000) was one of the hottest golfers in March and April. He posted three consecutive finishes of T2, T3 and T9 before winning his first ever tournament at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He hasn’t played well in his two starts since that victory but the talent is there to bounce back. He has not finished higher than T72 in three previous trips here but he’s a different player now.

Gary Woodland (+5,000) will be the long-shot take this week. He’s missed only three cuts this year and is coming off a T16 at the Memorial. His last start here was in 2010 and he finished a solid T37. He is fifth on tour in driving distance and this is a course that distance can matter. One look at the past three champions will tell you that.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the FedEx St. Jude Classic (all for one unit)

Brandt Snedeker (+1,000)

Ryan Palmer (+2,500)

Robert Karlsson (+3,000)

Billy Horschel (+3,000)

Gary Woodland (+5,000)

NBA Finals Action Report

Spurs money trims spread, series prices

Basketball bettors have had a day to juggle the opening odds for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat.

Early action has dictated some notable adjustments to both the spread and series prices. We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports, about those line moves and where he expects the line to close:

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – Open: -6, Move: -5

Some shops, including CarbonSports, opened Game 1 with Miami as a 6-point home favorite. But after a grueling seven-game series with the Indiana Pacers and the Spurs enjoying an extended break after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies, early action came in on the underdog and forced a move all the way to Heat -5.

With nearly 65 percent of the action on the Spurs, books are beginning to get Miami money coming in since moving the spread to -5.

“I believe we'll be dealing -5 up until game time,” Stewart. “First, there's no chance we'll go to -4.5 points as that would really leave us exposed for a big middle because if the game landed five, we'd get hammered."

“I could see us go back to -5.5 because I believe sharp action will support the Heat in this game," he says. "If anything, they're waiting for this line to keep dropping. But again, we're as low as were going to go, so they either lay the -5 or pass the game. “

The series prices opened with the Heat as -225 favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy again. But, much like the early Game 1 response, bettors are siding with San Antonio and have trimmed Miami all the way down to -205.

“Since going to -205 on the Heat, we've booked great action on both sides (Spurs +175) and we'll be dealing this number for most of the day unless we see sharp action come in on the Heat,” says Stewart.

As for the Game 1 total, some books opened at 188 while other tacked on a half-point hook. CarbonSports opened 188.5 and has taken solid two-way action at the original number.

The Spurs and Heat went 1-1 over/under in their two head-to-head meetings this season but have trended heavily toward the under in past years, posting a 5-20 over/under count in their previous 25 contests.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Phillies Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the Spurs. The deficit is 409 sirignanos.

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Thursday Oakland/White Sox Under 9

Basketball Crusher
San Antonio +5.5 over Miami Heat
System Record: 109-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 109-84-4