Service Plays Saturday 6/8/13

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UFC on Fuel TV 10 betting: Nogueira vs. Werdum headed for KO finish
By MMAODDSBREAKER

It’s a PRIDE rematch seven years in the making. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum have each fought a who’s who of MMA heavyweights through their illustrious careers, and will finally face off in the Octagon after coaching against each other in the second season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil.

Though the first fight ended in a unanimous decision win for “Big Nog” in 2006, these guys were a lot younger back then. Fast forward to their rematch this weekend and Werdum is the -320 favorite with Nogueira the +260 underdog. Here’s how these heavyweights match up.

Tale of the tape:

Two big facts to remember: These are heavyweights over the age of 35. Why is that important? First, heavyweights finish 74 percent of their fights, more than any other division. And more than three quarters of those finishes come via strikes rather than submissions.

The main difference between fighters above 35 years of age and their younger counterparts is knockdown resiliency. Older fighter simply can’t take as much punishment on their feet as they used to. Both these factors, combined with the five-round aspect of this fight, make a finish inside the distance very likely.

Standup:

Hopefully these guys are willing to stand and trade to settle the TUF Brazil 2 rivalry. Nogueira’s training in boxing is contrasted by Werdum’s Muay Thai, but both have accurate hands for big men.

Werdum interestingly has the better jab and higher pace, but “Big Nog” has more knockdown power. Werdum may want to neutralize that threat by pushing the fight against the cage. On defense, both fighters are better than average at avoiding strikes but have suffered more knockdowns than they’ve delivered, and have chins that are worse than the heavyweight average.

This will be compounded by the fact that Nogueira just turned 37 and Werdum turns 36 next month. Being on the tail end of your career is a dangerous thing in the heavyweight division. Since joining Strikeforce and the UFC, these guys have tallied five knockdowns scored but 10 knockdowns received. They each remain dangerous, but also more fragile than ever.

Ground:

Both fighters boast legitimate BJJ black belt credentials but Werdum is the more decorated grappler. Going to ground has not been a specialty of either fighter and both spend less than a third of their time on the mat.

In fact, each has a takedown success rate that is below average and even worse are their takedown defense rates, which are below the norm. Whether or not either fighter chooses to take this to the ground is hard to predict but Werdum probably has more reason, especially after seeing Frank Mir’s brutal submission of Nogueira 18 months ago.

If either fighter is rocked, they may go for submissions for the finish depending on position. But as the fight goes on, both fighters will tire and submissions will become less likely. The only way this fight goes the distance is if after slugging it out for a bit, they each decide to take the safer route of an exhausted grappling match. That would be bad for a lot of reasons.

Prediction:

Predicting who will land the big punch first is tricky business at heavyweight because either guy has the potential to do so. The numbers give a slight edge to Werdum, especially if he uses the clinch. Again, Nogueira has the better power with his hands, but also the worse chin.

Chicago Syndicate (Nice 2-0 sweep on Friday)
Top Afternoon Plays
A's/White Sox Under 8.5
Orioles/Rays Over 8.5

LA Syndicate Top Afternoon Play - Mariners/Yankees Over 8

Kings at Blackhawks: What bettors need to know

Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks (-173, 4.5)

Blackhawks lead best-of-seven series 3-1.

The Los Angeles Kings have lost all but one of their eight road contests this postseason. The reigning Stanley Cup champions will need to win Saturday's Game 5 of their Western Conference final against the host Chicago Blackhawks or see their bid for a repeat come to an end. The top-seeded Blackhawks shouldn't get too comfortable with a 3-1 series lead, having overcome that exact deficit to oust Original Six-rival Detroit in the second round.

"I think we can just go into (Game 5) with the mindset that we're down 3-1," Chicago captain Jonathan Toews said on Friday. "... I think that's when you play with the most desperation. We did that (in Game 4) and we know we have to raise our level of play even more (Saturday), so we'll go forward with that mentality." Speaking of Game 4, Marian Hossa scored the go-ahead goal early in the third period as the Blackhawks snapped fifth-seeded Los Angeles' 15-game home-winning streak with a 3-2 triumph on Thursday. Should Chicago emerged victorious on Saturday, it will face Boston in the Stanley Cup final. That contest would mark the first time thyat Original Six rivals will vie for the Cup since 1979, when Montreal defeated the New York Rangers.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, CBC, RDS

ABOUT THE KINGS: Los Angeles has faced its fair share of adversity in the postseason, rallying from an 0-2 deficit against fourth-seeded St. Louis in the first round as well as winning a decisive seventh game against Pacific Division-rival San Jose in the second. Coach Darryl Sutter isn't interested in living in the past, however. "We're not looking at it like last night or 40 years ago or however long," he said. "We're looking at it like the next game only."

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: The Presidents' Trophy-winning Blackhawks will regain the services of Duncan Keith, who was suspended for Game 4 after his high-sticking incident with Jeff Carter. The 2010 Norris Trophy winner watched fellow blue-liners Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook turn in fine performances in his absence. Hjalmarsson notched a pair of assists and a plus-2 rating while logging nearly 25 minutes of ice time. Seabrook played nearly 26 1/2 minutes and registered three hits.

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 7-1 in their last eight Conference Finals games.
* Under is 8-1-2 in Kings’ last 11 road games.
* Kings are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago.

OVERTIME

1. Chicago LW Bryan Bickell netted his eighth goal of the playoffs in Game 4 to extend his point streak to four contests.

2. Los Angeles D Slava Voynov's six postseason goals are the most by a blue-liner since Vancouver's Ed Jovanovski had seven in 2003. Voynov has two goals and three assists in his last three contests.

3. Kings C Mike Richards is "doubtful at best" to return for Saturday's tilt, according to Sutter. Richards has missed the last three games with a concussion following a brutal hit from Blackhawks C Dave Bolland.

Five MLB betting tips for bettors to consider

A recent article in the Reno Gazette highlighted some great baseball betting tips from professional bettors.

We thought it would be a good idea to pass along this insight to our readers:

1) Check ground ball, fly-ball and line-drive rates on Fangraphs.com.

Line drives produce 1.26 runs/out, fly balls produce 0.13 R/O, and ground balls produce only 0.05 R/O, according to the site. Place your bets according to the tendencies of the starting pitchers in any given game.

2) Determine a team’s effectiveness against right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

This seems simple, but is sometimes overlooked by bettors. For example, the New York Mets have the most left-handed hitters on their roster in the bigs (7) and are 27th in team batting average (.221) against left-handed pitchers. That's no coincidence.

3) Playing the underdog in a team’s first game back home after a long road trip.

Because home teams are usually favored in baseball, situational handicapper Marco D’Angelo says he’s had success betting the dog in this situation. This is also known as the dreaded letdown spot to bettors.

4) Betting rookie pitchers before September.

The handicapper in the article believes rookie pitchers have a distinct advantage in their first outing against any given team and bettors can usually grab them at a good price. Successful and profitable rookie pitchers early this season include: Matt Harvey (Mets), Shelby Miller (Cardinals), Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers).

5) Betting a pitcher when facing his former team for the first time.

Another situational betting tip that is based on a revenge factor. Bettors are banking on a pitcher in this spot to have inside knowledge of the batters' tendencies and to bring a little something extra to the table against his former club.

MLB Top 5: Rebounding MLB starting pitchers

We take a look at five MLB starting pitchers that are off to strong starts after disappointing 2012 campaigns.

Jason Marquis, San Diego Padres (7-2, 3.73)

Starter money: $658

Marquis has been bouncing around from team to team for the past couple seasons, but is now finding his groove in San Diego. The righty is one of the most profitable starters early in the season and bettors can always find value when he takes the hill for the Friars. Marquis has been an underdog in 10 of his 12 starts.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians (8-4, 3.57)

Starter money: $607

Masterson is enjoying a breakout season after posting an 11-15 record with a 4.93 ERA last campaign. The Indians are 9-4 in his 13 starts to date and his success can be attributed to a new pitch in his repertoire. The righty was mainly a two-pitch hurler prior to this season. He threw a fastball or changeup 95 percent of the time but has added a slider for 2013. Masterson is throwing the new pitch over 25 percent of the time and is getting significantly more ground-ball outs.

Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals (6-3, 3.66)

Starter money: $426

Since being dealt to the Royals in July, 2012, Guthrie has been a completely different pitcher. After many losing seasons as a member of the Orioles, the righty is finally profitable for bettors. Guthrie went 5-3 after joining Kansas City in 2012 and is off to a 6-3 start this year. Guthrie is usually an underdog in most of his starts, adding value for bettors.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (7-2, 2.45)

Starter money: $298

Lee’s 6-9 2012 campaign burned many bettors after the lefty built a reputation of being one of the top hurlers in the bigs. Lee has returned to form and the streaking Phillies are 8-4 in his 12 starts to date.

John Lackey, Boston Red Sox (3-5, 2.79)

Starter money: -$423

Lackey missed the entire 2012 campaign due to Tommy John surgery after allowing 114 earned runs in 2011 – the highest total in the American League. The righty seems to have righted the ship early this year, regaining the velocity on his fastball while mastering his ability to keep the ball down. His 3-5 record isn’t quite indicative of the way he’s thrown, but he's still fade material until Boston can win consistently when he starts.

All stats prior to action Friday.

Strong starters, weak bullpen make Cubs a great in-game bet

It’s been extremely difficult to find a reason to bet the Chicago Cubs for a very long time, but they're excelling in one particular betting area this season.

The Cubs have a +33 run differential in the first five innings of games, a stat that is very valuable to in-game bettors.

A major reason for the impressive early numbers is the success of the club’s starting pitchers. Chicago boasts three starters with ERAs under 3.00 – Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija and Scott Feldman.

The bullpen is a different story, making Chicago fade material for in-game bettors in the late innings.

The Cubs have only converted 10 of their 23 save opportunities to date and have an ugly -35 run differential from the sixth inning on. The bullpen’s lofty 4.33 ERA ranks 25th in the bigs.

Chicago is 24-34 straight up and has a 27-29-2 over/under record heading into action Saturday.

UFC on FUEL TV 10
by Robert Livingston

Nogueira vs. Werdum

Saturday, June 8 – 11:00 p.m. ET
Paulo Sarasate Arena – Fortaleza, Brazil
Minotauro Nogueira (34-7-1) vs. Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1)

Heavyweight bout
Line: Werdum -270, Nogueira +210

Opposing coaches on the second season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, Minotauro Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum will fight for the second time in their careers to headline the UFC on FUEL TV 10 card Saturday night in Brazil.

Nogueira and Werdum, both Brazilians, first fought while on the PRIDE circuit back in 2006. Nogueira won by unanimous decision in that Pride Openweight Grand Prix quarterfinal before falling in the next round. Both of these fighters are regularly fighting high-level heavyweight fighters. Nogueira was an interim UFC heavyweight champ before losing the title to Frank Mir in 2008. Werdum is coming off two consecutive wins, against Roy Nelson and Mike Russow, both in 2012. Nogueira is coming off a submission of Dave Herman in October, before which he lost to Mir for a second time. Though Nogueira may have more losses to his name recently, it’s only because he has challenged top-notch fighters. He has generally disposed of opponents who are not the cream of the crop, and as a sizable underdog in this one, he should be the play to do more of the same against Werdum.

Take NOGUEIRA as the better Brazilian on Saturday.

Like many Brazilian fighters, Nogueira is an elite Jiu-Jitsu artist, but few can match his skill. Of his 34 career wins, 21 have come via submission. He isn’t likely to knock an opponent out—just three of his wins have come that way—and he also has 10 decision victories. He has alternated wins and losses for his last six fights, beating Herman, Brendan Schaub and Randy Couture while losing to Mir twice and Cain Velasquez once. Losses to Mir and Velasquez are nothing to be ashamed about as two of the top fighters in the game. All in all, the 37-year-old has six wins against former UFC champions in his long career. Though both Nogueira and Werdum have evolved since the first meeting between the two seven years ago, he should go in looking for the same result.

Werdum is also skilled in Jiu-Jitsu with half of his career wins coming by submission. Unlike Nogueira, however, he does not like to get a win from the judges—he has five knockouts and just three decision victories. Of his five losses, four have come via decision. At 6-foot-4, he has an inch height advantage on Nogueira and a ground game that makes him dangerous. The real question, though, is if the 35-year-old Werdum will be able to compete with Nogueira’s boxing technique that allows him to control the pace of a fight.

UFC on FUEL TV 10
by Robert Livingston

Macario vs. Silva dos Santos

Saturday, June 8 – 10:30 p.m. ET
Paulo Sarasate Arena – Fortaleza, Brazil
William Macario (7-0) vs. Leonardo Silva dos Santos (11-4)

Welterweight bout
Line: Santos -250, Macario +190

Leonardo Silva dos Santos will look to give William Macario his first professional loss as the two take the Octagon on UFC on FUEL TV 10’s main card in the TUF Brazil 2 welterweight championship.

Both of these Brazilians are making their UFC debuts in this bout. Macario’s fists of fury have sent him to seven consecutive victories, none of which reached the final bell. Six were TKO's via punches while the most recent was a submission of Paulo Silva. Santos has seen a greater variety of fighters than Macario, hopping around between a number of lower-level circuits and finding his groove lately. He has won five consecutive bouts against fighters of four different nationalities, so he is used to dealing with different styles of fighting. Like Macario, he has had no problem winning before the final bell. But Santos got a lucky break to get into this bout, actually losing his TUF semifinal bout before his opponent couldn’t take the spot in the final due to a broken hand. So even though he has more experience, it’s difficult to trust him as the favorite here.

Take MACARIO and the money.

Macario is just 21 years old (2nd-youngest UFC fighter) and could really make a name for himself in the welterweight division with a victory here. Not only is he 7-0 in his career, but also he has done it in impressive fashion. Though he has not fought anybody notable, just one of his opponents has escaped the first round, and that fight ended 46 seconds into the second round. At 5-foot-10, he cedes two inches to his opponent in this one, but he should be able to make up for that with his Jiu-Jitsu and punching power.

The 33-year-old Santos is a world-class Jiu-Jitsu champion who has seven wins via submission, and just one knockout victory in his career. His first career bout was against a world-class fighter in Takanori Gomi, a tight majority-decision victory for Gomi. Despite the loss, it established Santos as being able to contend with solid fighters. He will need to show a lot more than he did in the TUF semifinal, however, to beat Macario. In that bout, Santos lost via unanimous decision to Santiago Ponzinibbio, though Ponzinibbio couldn’t move on to the final because of his injury. It’s a rare second chance for Santos, and he’ll have to take advantage of it.

UFC on FUEL TV 10
by Robert Livingston

Silva vs. Cavalcante

Saturday, June 8 – 10:15 p.m. ET
Paulo Sarasate Arena – Fortaleza, Brazil
Thiago Silva (14-3) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (11-3)

Light heavyweight bout
Line: Cavalcante -185, Silva +155

Both coming off no-contests in their last bouts, Brazilian brawlers Thiago Silva and Rafael Cavalcante will return to the Octagon for a light heavyweight bout on UFC on FUEL TV 10’s main card Saturday in Fortaleza, Brazil.

In Silva’s past four fights, he is 0-2 with two no-contests. The two NC's were both victories for Silva that were later taken away because of failed drug tests. This is his first fight since that Nov. 10 overturned win over Stanislav Nedkov, which earned him a six-month suspension. Cavalcante’s last fight versus Mike Kyle was also originally a victory for him, but he too subsequently failed a drug test and had the win taken away. A former Strikeforce light heavyweight champ, Cavalcante has the power to send anybody to the ground. But he is also well-rounded, with a ground game that should enable him to earn the victory here.

Take CAVALCANTE as a slight favorite in this bout.

In Silva’s last fight, he earned a submission against Stanislav Nedkov before the victory was stripped. Regardless of the drug test, Silva displayed his strong Jiu-Jitsu skills that give him the potential to be a top-notch fighter, as he earned Submission of the Night for his win at the time. His other no-contest victory was against the talented Brandon Vera, while his two recent losses were to Alexander Gustafsson and Rashad Evans. His most notable -- and most recent -- win to date is against Keith Jardine, but that was back in August of 2009. The 30-year-old Brazilian has the same height (6-foot-1) and weight (205 lbs.) as his opponent. Silva also has 12 knockouts in his career and can also win via submission, but the latter will be difficult given Cavalcante’s skill on the ground. Silva will must be able to land some big punches early in this one.

Cavalcante is 4-1 with a no-contest in his past six fights. In that span, he won the Strikeforce light heavyweight belt from Muhammed Lawal before losing it in his subsequent fight to Dan Henderson. Saturday marks Cavalcante’s UFC debut. He has always fought top-notch fighters, however, and showed how good he could be in his no-contest against Mike Kyle, in which he earned a submission just 33 seconds into the action. He packs a powerful punch, with all 11 wins coming by knockout, and should be able to take home the victory if he can handle Silva’s aggressive tactics.

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

06/08/13 Prediction

Season: 317-196 (.618)

Western Conference Finals
Game 5, best-of-7
CHICAGO 3, Los Angeles 2

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Penguins Friday.

Saturday it’s Freedom Child in the Belmont Stakes ($25 win and place). The deficit is 414 sirignanos.

Joe Wiz

Bonus Play Saturday San Fran/Arizona Over 8

Lost last 5

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Bonus Plays are 1045-776 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Sat Texas -160

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Saturday

Braves -145

Soccer Crusher
Godoy Cruz + Tigre OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 409-15, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 409-356-49