*Note - I have no opinion on the following and simply posting for others to read who don't have Insider Access.
Updating NBA Finals betting strategy
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
This past Sunday morning, after the Pacers had evened the series with Miami and made LeBron think he was going to have to win the Eastern Conference finals Cleveland-style, I let my overmedicated, sleep-deprived imagination run wild. Before you call ESPN HR, let me explain:
A few weeks ago, I had shoulder surgery for a torn labrum (suffered during the vigorous throwing sessions we have in the cavernous Mag offices, I think). I wore a sling for a few days, generally tried to be careful and took a few doses of the pain meds the doctor prescribed. I was being very responsible. Sleeping was (and is) painful, and I woke up (and still wake up) more often than an octogenarian. But for the most part, I kept my head on straight. Then I started physical therapy, which is a wincing, laugh-to-keep-yourself-from-crying experience. Then, last week, I did a 36-hour, no-sleep tour of Vegas between Tuesday and Thursday for the International Conference on Gambling and Risk. By the time Saturday night rolled around, my shoulder throbbed and a dream-filled sleep was one of those things that only happened to the kid on "Game of Thrones" who sees ravens and can silence Hodor.
So, midway through the third quarter of the Pacers' blowout Game 6 win, I popped a double dose of the prescribed pain pills -- I emphasize prescribed, as in by a real doctor. I found that nice, comfortable lane of happiness and light.
When I woke up, I had an epiphany: If the Pacers reverse their zigzag trend of only showing up at home and LeBron is really playing as one, then this is something I need to get ahead on. It's not just about Game 7, but about next season. The Pacers can handle the Heat. The Bulls will be better. There's a chance, if the Heat don't win the Eastern Conference Finals, that they might not even be title favorites in 2014. I emailed my theory to Ed Salmons of the Las Vegas Hotel and said, "I'm curious if you think that perception will be shared by fans."
His response: "Shortest odds for 2014 will be Heat, Thunder, Bulls/Spurs."
<offer>Remember, this was before Game 7, which the Heat would go on to win easily. I wrote back, "What if the Heat lose and Wade and Bosh don't show again?"
Ed: "I can't imagine any scenario unless LeBron retires in which the Heat are not 2-1."
Naturally, Ed was right. Even without the drugs I had access to, he could see that the Heat were going to close out the series and get to the Finals, where they opened as -220 favorites to win the title over San Antonio, as well as 5.5-point favorite in Game 1.
Before Thursday's Game 1, I had NBA handicapper Erin Rynning on my podcast. He was bullish on the Spurs and had placed a small (for him) bet on San Antonio to win the series at +200. Rynning makes thousands of bets during an NBA season on sides, totals, first halfs, second halfs and in-game wagers. And he is obsessively adjusting his power ratings, almost on a game-to-game basis. This isn't the way every wiseguy does it. Some are slower to adjust, looking for that sweet spot between pattern recognition and missing the opportunity before everyone else sees it, too.
But Rynning moves on the fly, running through a checklist of items he has honed through a decade of betting NBA games. The slightest change that might be imperceptible to the average NBA fan is categorized by Rynning, who then tweaks his formula. It's as exact as you can be about an inexact science.
Heading into the finals, Rynning actually had the Spurs rated slightly higher than the Heat. He also had a small data set showing that the rest versus rust theory favored San Antonio. Naturally, in addition to his series bet, he liked the Spurs in Game 1 at plus-5.5. And the game played out almost exactly as he, and many other people, predicted: The Spurs wouldn't fold (they were down by nine in the second quarter and seven in the third), Kawhi Leonard would do a bang-up job on LeBron (he held him to 6 of 7 on 2nd half field goal attempts in which he was guarding him), and no one would be able to handle Tony Parker down the stretch. Between his end-game trifecta of spinning layup, midrange jumper and curly neal impression Parker stole Game 1 right from under the outstretched hand of LeBron.
The challenge of course, is how do you spin this forward.
The truth is, your chances to bet are dwindling. As Rynning told me on the podcast, the later a series goes, the tighter the line, the less the opportunity. Just after midnight on June 7, Game 2 of the Finals opened with the Heat 5.5-point favorites. And, thanks to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, here is what you will see a lot of leading up to the next game:
[h=3]Favoring the Spurs[/h]• In NBA Finals history, the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the series 71.2 percent (47-19) of the time.
• Gregg Popovich is 20-3 all-time in best-of-seven playoff series when his team wins Game 1. His .870 series win percentage ranks only behind Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach among head coaches with a minimum of 15 series coached.
[h=3]Favoring the Heat[/h]• The Game 1 winner has lost each of the last two NBA Finals (Heat in 2011, Thunder in 2012).
• This marks the 4th time the Heat have lost a Game 1 in the Bosh/James/Wade Era (since 2010-11). Miami went on to sweep the next four games in each of the previous three instances.
• The Heat have won 10 consecutive games following a loss. They haven't dropped two straight games since Jan. 8-10.
From a gambling perspective, all this contradictory information will make your head spin faster than a couple of pain pills. Remember, I know what I'm talking about. But, as much as I love the Spurs, dig deep into the limited spread data available, and it's hard not to like the Heat to cover.
Of those 10 consecutive wins following a loss, the Heat have covered in every single game. Again, a small sample set, but a pattern. I promise that is not a fact the stat guys are passing along that you will find on "SportsCenter." And there have been some big numbers to cover in that streak, like a 13 over the Bulls in their playoff series.
The Heat are going to take their medicine. They're going to get a good night's rest and make some adjustments. And, as my buddy Ed likes to say, unless LeBron retires, they'll show up in Game 2.
</offer>
Updating NBA Finals betting strategy
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
This past Sunday morning, after the Pacers had evened the series with Miami and made LeBron think he was going to have to win the Eastern Conference finals Cleveland-style, I let my overmedicated, sleep-deprived imagination run wild. Before you call ESPN HR, let me explain:
A few weeks ago, I had shoulder surgery for a torn labrum (suffered during the vigorous throwing sessions we have in the cavernous Mag offices, I think). I wore a sling for a few days, generally tried to be careful and took a few doses of the pain meds the doctor prescribed. I was being very responsible. Sleeping was (and is) painful, and I woke up (and still wake up) more often than an octogenarian. But for the most part, I kept my head on straight. Then I started physical therapy, which is a wincing, laugh-to-keep-yourself-from-crying experience. Then, last week, I did a 36-hour, no-sleep tour of Vegas between Tuesday and Thursday for the International Conference on Gambling and Risk. By the time Saturday night rolled around, my shoulder throbbed and a dream-filled sleep was one of those things that only happened to the kid on "Game of Thrones" who sees ravens and can silence Hodor.
So, midway through the third quarter of the Pacers' blowout Game 6 win, I popped a double dose of the prescribed pain pills -- I emphasize prescribed, as in by a real doctor. I found that nice, comfortable lane of happiness and light.
When I woke up, I had an epiphany: If the Pacers reverse their zigzag trend of only showing up at home and LeBron is really playing as one, then this is something I need to get ahead on. It's not just about Game 7, but about next season. The Pacers can handle the Heat. The Bulls will be better. There's a chance, if the Heat don't win the Eastern Conference Finals, that they might not even be title favorites in 2014. I emailed my theory to Ed Salmons of the Las Vegas Hotel and said, "I'm curious if you think that perception will be shared by fans."
His response: "Shortest odds for 2014 will be Heat, Thunder, Bulls/Spurs."
<offer>Remember, this was before Game 7, which the Heat would go on to win easily. I wrote back, "What if the Heat lose and Wade and Bosh don't show again?"
Ed: "I can't imagine any scenario unless LeBron retires in which the Heat are not 2-1."
Naturally, Ed was right. Even without the drugs I had access to, he could see that the Heat were going to close out the series and get to the Finals, where they opened as -220 favorites to win the title over San Antonio, as well as 5.5-point favorite in Game 1.
Before Thursday's Game 1, I had NBA handicapper Erin Rynning on my podcast. He was bullish on the Spurs and had placed a small (for him) bet on San Antonio to win the series at +200. Rynning makes thousands of bets during an NBA season on sides, totals, first halfs, second halfs and in-game wagers. And he is obsessively adjusting his power ratings, almost on a game-to-game basis. This isn't the way every wiseguy does it. Some are slower to adjust, looking for that sweet spot between pattern recognition and missing the opportunity before everyone else sees it, too.
But Rynning moves on the fly, running through a checklist of items he has honed through a decade of betting NBA games. The slightest change that might be imperceptible to the average NBA fan is categorized by Rynning, who then tweaks his formula. It's as exact as you can be about an inexact science.
Heading into the finals, Rynning actually had the Spurs rated slightly higher than the Heat. He also had a small data set showing that the rest versus rust theory favored San Antonio. Naturally, in addition to his series bet, he liked the Spurs in Game 1 at plus-5.5. And the game played out almost exactly as he, and many other people, predicted: The Spurs wouldn't fold (they were down by nine in the second quarter and seven in the third), Kawhi Leonard would do a bang-up job on LeBron (he held him to 6 of 7 on 2nd half field goal attempts in which he was guarding him), and no one would be able to handle Tony Parker down the stretch. Between his end-game trifecta of spinning layup, midrange jumper and curly neal impression Parker stole Game 1 right from under the outstretched hand of LeBron.
The challenge of course, is how do you spin this forward.
The truth is, your chances to bet are dwindling. As Rynning told me on the podcast, the later a series goes, the tighter the line, the less the opportunity. Just after midnight on June 7, Game 2 of the Finals opened with the Heat 5.5-point favorites. And, thanks to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, here is what you will see a lot of leading up to the next game:
[h=3]Favoring the Spurs[/h]• In NBA Finals history, the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the series 71.2 percent (47-19) of the time.
• Gregg Popovich is 20-3 all-time in best-of-seven playoff series when his team wins Game 1. His .870 series win percentage ranks only behind Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach among head coaches with a minimum of 15 series coached.
[h=3]Favoring the Heat[/h]• The Game 1 winner has lost each of the last two NBA Finals (Heat in 2011, Thunder in 2012).
• This marks the 4th time the Heat have lost a Game 1 in the Bosh/James/Wade Era (since 2010-11). Miami went on to sweep the next four games in each of the previous three instances.
• The Heat have won 10 consecutive games following a loss. They haven't dropped two straight games since Jan. 8-10.
From a gambling perspective, all this contradictory information will make your head spin faster than a couple of pain pills. Remember, I know what I'm talking about. But, as much as I love the Spurs, dig deep into the limited spread data available, and it's hard not to like the Heat to cover.
Of those 10 consecutive wins following a loss, the Heat have covered in every single game. Again, a small sample set, but a pattern. I promise that is not a fact the stat guys are passing along that you will find on "SportsCenter." And there have been some big numbers to cover in that streak, like a 13 over the Bulls in their playoff series.
The Heat are going to take their medicine. They're going to get a good night's rest and make some adjustments. And, as my buddy Ed likes to say, unless LeBron retires, they'll show up in Game 2.
</offer>
