[h=1]Early value bets for CFB games[/h][h=3]Alabama-Texas A&M in Week 3 among matchups offering early value[/h]By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
The Golden Nugget is known as downtown Las Vegas' largest resort, one of the oldest operations in Nevada and the place where casino baron Steve Wynn got his start. The venerable Nugget sports book is also known for its annual summer release of early lines on college games. Some Week 1 prices are already on the board at a few Caribbean books, but the Nugget has posted early numbers on 250 games, including matchups from each week of the upcoming season.
Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Louisville are favored in every one of their games, while Texas just misses that list, coming in at a pick 'em against Red River rival Oklahoma. These numbers will move significantly before the season, of course, but they do provide a sense of what the oddsmakers are thinking heading into fall practice.
Here's a look at a few spots to find value in the early going, including what promises to be a very highly touted showdown between Alabama and Texas A&M in Week 3:
[h=3]Saturday, Sept. 7[/h]Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Pick-em) at Michigan Wolverines
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We've been projecting Notre Dame's return to national prominence since Brian Kelly took over three years ago. While the Irish are indeed back in the spotlight, this year's Domers -- who were down several key 2012 performers even before a disastrous offseason that saw quarterback Everett Golson and others unexpectedly leave the team -- should be taking points on the road against an equally ascendant Michigan program. The Wolverines have the nation's top defensive coordinator in Greg Mattison and an ever-increasing cachet of talent on both sides of the ball.
The against-the-spread pick: Michigan
[h=3]Saturday, Sept. 14[/h]Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-6) at Texas A&M Aggies
As we'll explain in the coming weeks, neither of these teams is our pick to win the SEC this year, and both will be overvalued by the polls and perhaps the oddsmakers as well. Neither the school nor Johnny Manziel has handled the reigning Heisman winner's sudden success very well in an eventful offseason in College Station, and even if Nick Saban can't completely solve the elusive sophomore and the fast-paced A&M attack, there's still reason to think that Bama may romp in the revenge match on the strength of its own offense.
The Aggies lost heralded coordinators on offense and special teams and return just four starters on defense. The latter unit has neither the scheme nor the personnel to slow Alabama in a game that should be priced closer to low double digits.
The ATS pick: Alabama
[h=3]Saturday, Sept. 21[/h]Arkansas Razorbacks (pick 'em) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Perhaps no athletic department has suffered a more scandal-ridden 2013 than the State University of New Jersey, but such distractions are just a bonus for those looking to fade this already troubled Rutgers squad. Last year's tremendous defense, years in the making, masked the precipitous drop from the Greg Schiano coaching staff to the current regime under Kyle Flood. With the bulk of the contributors from that outstanding stop unit no longer on campus, the Knights won't be able to conceal significant deficiencies in offense and leadership.
Arkansas is a difficult team to project in Year 1 of the Bret Bielema era, but the Hogs are a hungry, talented group that has too many horses not to lay some points in a grudge match versus a declining Rutgers outfit.
The ATS pick: Arkansas
[h=3]Saturday, Oct. 12[/h]Oregon Ducks (minus-14) at Washington Huskies
Superbooster Phil Knight is still writing checks and the general offensive philosophy that spurred the Ducks' rise to consistent top-five prominence is still in place, but don't underestimate the difference between savant Chip Kelly and 39-year-old newbie Mark Helfrich. Oregon will still be a powerful team, but a two-touchdown road price in this spot says that the expectations are practically the same.
Washington has allowed more than 43 points per game in this series during a nine-year losing skid, but defensive boss Justin Wilcox -- a real difference-maker in his 2012 debut -- now has a year under his belt and a deeper roster of talent with which to work. This is a program gradually on the rise, one that has been steadily closing the gap against the top of the Pac-12 more effectively than the Oregon scores indicate. The 2013 Huskies edition returns 17 starters and is Steve Sarkisian's best yet. Something in the high single digits would be a more appropriate number.
The ATS pick: Washington
[h=3]Saturday, Oct. 19[/h]Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (minus-2)
The Seminoles are a retooling group that's sporting six new coaches and the fewest returning starters in the ACC. Clemson is a loaded national contender with an offense that boasts a pair of Heisman candidates in Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins and the most sought-after coordinator in the sport in Chad Morris.
The Tigers are the clear favorite in the ACC this season, and giving anything less than a field goal at home is another great spot to fade consistent moneyburner Jimbo Fisher and his new-look Noles.
The ATS pick: Clemson
The Golden Nugget is known as downtown Las Vegas' largest resort, one of the oldest operations in Nevada and the place where casino baron Steve Wynn got his start. The venerable Nugget sports book is also known for its annual summer release of early lines on college games. Some Week 1 prices are already on the board at a few Caribbean books, but the Nugget has posted early numbers on 250 games, including matchups from each week of the upcoming season.
Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Louisville are favored in every one of their games, while Texas just misses that list, coming in at a pick 'em against Red River rival Oklahoma. These numbers will move significantly before the season, of course, but they do provide a sense of what the oddsmakers are thinking heading into fall practice.
Here's a look at a few spots to find value in the early going, including what promises to be a very highly touted showdown between Alabama and Texas A&M in Week 3:
[h=3]Saturday, Sept. 7[/h]Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Pick-em) at Michigan Wolverines
<offer></offer>
We've been projecting Notre Dame's return to national prominence since Brian Kelly took over three years ago. While the Irish are indeed back in the spotlight, this year's Domers -- who were down several key 2012 performers even before a disastrous offseason that saw quarterback Everett Golson and others unexpectedly leave the team -- should be taking points on the road against an equally ascendant Michigan program. The Wolverines have the nation's top defensive coordinator in Greg Mattison and an ever-increasing cachet of talent on both sides of the ball.
The against-the-spread pick: Michigan
[h=3]Saturday, Sept. 14[/h]Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-6) at Texas A&M Aggies
As we'll explain in the coming weeks, neither of these teams is our pick to win the SEC this year, and both will be overvalued by the polls and perhaps the oddsmakers as well. Neither the school nor Johnny Manziel has handled the reigning Heisman winner's sudden success very well in an eventful offseason in College Station, and even if Nick Saban can't completely solve the elusive sophomore and the fast-paced A&M attack, there's still reason to think that Bama may romp in the revenge match on the strength of its own offense.
The Aggies lost heralded coordinators on offense and special teams and return just four starters on defense. The latter unit has neither the scheme nor the personnel to slow Alabama in a game that should be priced closer to low double digits.
The ATS pick: Alabama
[h=3]Saturday, Sept. 21[/h]Arkansas Razorbacks (pick 'em) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Perhaps no athletic department has suffered a more scandal-ridden 2013 than the State University of New Jersey, but such distractions are just a bonus for those looking to fade this already troubled Rutgers squad. Last year's tremendous defense, years in the making, masked the precipitous drop from the Greg Schiano coaching staff to the current regime under Kyle Flood. With the bulk of the contributors from that outstanding stop unit no longer on campus, the Knights won't be able to conceal significant deficiencies in offense and leadership.
Arkansas is a difficult team to project in Year 1 of the Bret Bielema era, but the Hogs are a hungry, talented group that has too many horses not to lay some points in a grudge match versus a declining Rutgers outfit.
The ATS pick: Arkansas
[h=3]Saturday, Oct. 12[/h]Oregon Ducks (minus-14) at Washington Huskies
Superbooster Phil Knight is still writing checks and the general offensive philosophy that spurred the Ducks' rise to consistent top-five prominence is still in place, but don't underestimate the difference between savant Chip Kelly and 39-year-old newbie Mark Helfrich. Oregon will still be a powerful team, but a two-touchdown road price in this spot says that the expectations are practically the same.
Washington has allowed more than 43 points per game in this series during a nine-year losing skid, but defensive boss Justin Wilcox -- a real difference-maker in his 2012 debut -- now has a year under his belt and a deeper roster of talent with which to work. This is a program gradually on the rise, one that has been steadily closing the gap against the top of the Pac-12 more effectively than the Oregon scores indicate. The 2013 Huskies edition returns 17 starters and is Steve Sarkisian's best yet. Something in the high single digits would be a more appropriate number.
The ATS pick: Washington
[h=3]Saturday, Oct. 19[/h]Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (minus-2)
The Seminoles are a retooling group that's sporting six new coaches and the fewest returning starters in the ACC. Clemson is a loaded national contender with an offense that boasts a pair of Heisman candidates in Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins and the most sought-after coordinator in the sport in Chad Morris.
The Tigers are the clear favorite in the ACC this season, and giving anything less than a field goal at home is another great spot to fade consistent moneyburner Jimbo Fisher and his new-look Noles.
The ATS pick: Clemson
